As readers may remember, two gubernatorial contests were held last week in Kentucky and Mississippi, and while the latter was won relatively easily by the Republican candidate, the Kentucky contest between incumbent Republican Bevin and challenging Democrat Beshears resulted in the narrow loss of the governorship by the Republicans. It’s close enough that the Board of Elections hasn’t yet certified the results, and Bevins, unless I missed an announcement, has yet to concede.
That left me wondering just how red the State of Kentucky might be considered to be, so I did a bit of research, enough to make me tired of my graphing tool, and convincing me that the old adage that all politics is local is probably quite true.
In the below, I chose to show number of votes, rather than percentages, in order to get a feel for how the magnitude of votes has changed over the years. The first chart is of Senatorial contests since 1996.
While there have been some competitive contests, clearly the Republican competitors have had more appeal than the Democrats.
The second chart is of Presidential contests since 1996.
Clinton barely beat the wooden Dole in 1996; Democrats Gore, Kerry, Obama, and Clinton clearly had relatively little appeal. But coal mining, a major Kentucky industry, has been waning for quite a while, and blame has often been cast at big government, since Democrats have had the temerity to point out the polluting aspects of the fossil fuel.
Finally, here’s the chart for the recent Kentucky gubernatorial contests.
While Republicans would like to say Kentucky is a red state, I have to think, given the variance in the charts, that the perception of the candidates appears to be an important factor in voters determining the victor in contests. Republicans like to claim Bevin was deeply unlikable, yet Bevin survived a contested primary before being defeated by Andy Beshear, the son of former Governor Steven Beshear – and that family connection may have been important as well.
The supremacy of the Republicans in Kentucky Senatorial contests will be on the line in 2020 when long-time Senator McConnell will be once again running for re-election, unless he decides to retire. Recent polls have shown that he has become deeply unpopular, but I don’t think that’ll be enough. The Democrats will need to find a Kentuckian to run who appeals to the state’s residents, while still being able to tell them some hard truths.
This may be more open than the Kentucky GOP wants to think.
