Pushing Him To The Edge

Congress is not entirely irresponsible. WaPo notes they’re trying to handle the impending government funding shortfall with a minimum of fuss:

The Senate on Tuesday passed a short-term spending bill that would keep the government running through Dec. 7, aiming to avert a government shutdown and put off a fight over funding for President Trump’s border wall until after the midterm elections.

The short-term bill came attached to a massive budget package containing full-year 2019 funding for the Pentagon as well as for the Labor, Education and Health and Human Services departments. GOP leaders designed the package to combine key Republican and Democratic priorities in an attempt to garner overwhelming bipartisan support. The package also aims to satisfy Trump’s desire for more military spending.

The 93-to-7 vote came less than two weeks ahead of a Sept. 30 deadline when government funding will expire unless Congress and Trump intervene. …

The House is expected to take up the bill next week, but it remains uncertain whether Trump would sign the measure.

The fact that the Republicans voted for it, unless that was a strategic “make us look good” vote, suggests that, if push comes to shove, the Senate Republicans will vote to override a veto.

So let’s suppose the House votes in a similar fashion for this bill. How will President Trump react? He’s already stuck his neck out wth this tweet:

[tweet https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1042740913968164864]

He wants his Wall, and he wants it now. He has two audiences, his base, and the independents who still waffle over him.

If he signs the bill, his base will potentially see him as weak and that may put a crack in that all-important base. His base is important not only because of the political power it gives him, but also the emotional validation they give him. However, the all-important independents will see this as a positive and pragmatic move on the President’s part.

If he vetoes the bill, he looks strong to his base – unless Congress overrides his veto. The independents, whose attitudes towards the wall are all over the place, will, to a large degree, dislike him even more.

But there’s one more factor to consider: the President is a former Reality TV star. Drama plays into his view of life and his ego. Shutting down the government may strike him as being a dramatic, powerful move.

My conservative guess is that he’ll sign the bill, all the while trying to play it up as a powerful move by himself. Done properly, his base will suck the pablum down and believe it.

My adventurous guess is that his love of drama will entice him into the veto, and he’ll b overridden by a Republican Party terrified of getting even more mud on their brand. If they don’t, the Democrats would have one more shell to put in their artillery.

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About Hue White

Former BBS operator; software engineer; cat lackey.

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