It appears the transition of power in Saudi Arabia is not going well, as I mentioned here earlier. Bruce Riedel adds to the analysis in AL Monitor:
Saudi Vision 2030, the brainchild of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman to reduce the kingdom’s dependence on oil income, is coming undone. The king has stripped away the central pillar of the project. The country is becoming more autocratic and repressive. The slide toward greater repression is prompting capital flight.
The centerpiece of the ambitious plan was to open up Aramco, the national oil company, to outside investors. Five percent of the company would be opened initially, creating an initial public offering, or IPO. The crown prince estimated that the company would be valued at $2 trillion, creating the world’s largest IPO of $100 billion.
Incidentally, capital flight leads to economic upset. If it’s traced to an autocratic takeover, it makes for an easy target for overthrow – and worse. But if a democracy engages in acts that result in capital flight, then those in control either must control the press or the democracy is in danger of going under – especially if Democracy is considered the problem, rather than foolish activities of a few.
The crown prince’s so-called anti-corruption campaign last November — in which hundreds of prominent Saudis, including members of the family, were detained and forced to hand over assets to the government — added further difficulties. The shakedown underscored the absence of due process and the rule of law in the kingdom and discouraged foreign investment. It also sparked major capital flight as the wealthy sought to protect their assets abroad. One authoritative estimate is that almost $150 billion in capital has left the kingdom in the last two years. …
The arbitrary detentions last fall and now of women are part of a broader trend of greater authoritarianism and repression in Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia has always been an absolute monarchy that stifles dissent. There is no freedom of assembly or speech. Public executions are a mainstay of Saudi life.
But the repression is getting worse. The shakedown last year was unprecedented in Saudi history. Some of those detained are still under arrest. Public executions are more frequent. Prominent clerical critics have been rounded up.
And etc. If the Saudi Arabian monarchy falls over, there’ll be some rearrangements in terms of power and alliances in the Middle East. Don’t assume Iran will benefit from disarray at its primary rival in the region, either, because they have a big bucket of economic & environmental troubles of their own.
Looks like this region could get more interesting in the next few years. Another reason to lessen our dependence on oil.
