How Dumb Is Paul Ryan?

Speaker of the House Paul Ryan (R-WI) has, for all intents and purposes, appeared to have already checked out of his job as Representative to Congress from Wisconsin, as well as the Speaker of the House. He refuses to try to restrain President Trump in any legal & possible way with regards to the trade wars tariffs because he thinks it’ll be futile; his approach to writing and passing major legislation is the most rank amateurism we’ve seen in decades (see the Tax Change bill and the bill to revoke the ACA, each written with the express intent that the Senate would completely rewrite them and then the House would pass them through reconciliation); and even his reputation as a policy wonk hangs in tatters after the debacle with insurance.

The man has proven himself a total incompetent at the tough job of governance, and, since he’s stated he’s retiring from the job at the end of this term, he’s basically checked out.

Just a few moments ago I thought of a way to light a fire under this abjectly failed politico. Let’s postulate a series of events.

1. The Democrats, in a shocking mid-term wave election, bury the Republicans in the mid-terms. It’s so bad that the Democrats hold a super-majority in the House, and take the Senate as well.
2. In a critical move for the purposes of this post, Representative Nancy Pelosi is once again elected as Speaker of the House.
3. The next day, impeachment proceedings are begun against President Trump on charges of mismanagement and betrayal of state secrets, for which there exists abundant evidence in President Trump’s failure to nominate candidates for many critical positions in the government, in the former case, and his refusal to accept the judgments of his intelligence agencies in the latter. As an aperitif to the latter, his invitation that top Russians join him for a celebratory meeting in the Oval Office becomes a lovely dessert for a House full of enraged Democrats.
4. By the end of the day, the House has passed the impeachment resolution through acclamation, as most of Republican Representatives have come to realize the depth of President Trump’s incompetence, if not his perfidy. Those few who are still loyal to their leader whine incredulously.
5. The next day, the Senate votes to accept the presentation of the House, and before President Trump can do more than proclaim about it all being fake news, and in perhaps the most shocking and unlikely part of this hypothetical, enough Republican Senators, shamed by the Lion of the Senate, the terribly ill Senator McCain, as well former Senators Corker and Flake, join the Democrats and vote for conviction. Former President Trump is relieved of his duties, his perks, and possibly his freedom.
6. But even as suddenly President Pence is sworn in, the House has been busy. Pence, after all, is not a cheery faced innocence innocent. As many pundits have pointed out, he’s lied to the public numerous times. And, as part of the Trump Administration, there is a certain amount of guilt by association, just or not. Possibly unbeknownst to the rather busy Pence, the House has already brought and approved impeachment proceedings against President Pence during his swearing-in and inaugural celebrations.
7. The next day, in a terrifying shocker, enough Senate Republicans, frantically fighting for their political lives by avoiding the taints of corruption and treason associated with the Trump Administration, convict Pence and bounce him out on his ear.

Shocking? Sure. Unlikely? Oh, yes. Impossible?

Fuck, no. This. Could. Happen.

Have you been paying attention? Did you notice the critical omission?

President Pence, having been in office for only a few precious hours, hours filled with security briefings and all the minutiae his predecessor fluffed, DIDN’T GET AROUND TO APPOINTING A VICE-PRESIDENT. In fact, the 25th Amendment to the US Constitution requires that a nomination to the Vice-President’s office, made due to a sudden vacancy, be confirmed by a simple majority of both the Senate and the House.

In this scenario, both the Senate and the House are controlled by Democrats.

So, who remembers the succession order? The VP is gone, so who’s next?

The Speaker of the House.

Can you say President Pelosi?

If I were to be totally honest, I’d ask myself if Speaker Ryan has an hidden agenda. Perhaps he’s looking to blow up the Republican Party through his comically awful efforts at being a legislator and Speaker – a camouflaged Democrat, or a conservative who hates the GOP.

But I doubt it. Speaker Ryan currently has a TrumpScore of 95%; furthermore, FiveThirtyEight’s analyses of Ryan has shown that his policy positions are far-right extremist, consonant with the current members of the Republican Party. It’s a far stretch to label him a NeverTrumper or, heaven forbid, a Commie.

If I had Speaker Ryan in my office, and I was inclined to be honest with the man, despite my knowledge of his lack of a grasp on reality and my dislike of raw incompetence, I’d tell him this:

Impeach Trump right now. This moment. Because Trump’s most recent behavior is intolerable in an American President, and if you can’t do it, then the Republicans are doomed to the destruction of their party, the destruction of their hold on Congress, and the destruction of their hold on the Executive Branch. Even the Judicial Branch will not be invulnerable, as Judges can be impeached. Your views will be considered tainted and suspect because you, by default, supported a President who was impeached and convicted.

You must act decisively, for country and then for party.

The next few weeks will certainly form the basis of history’s judgment of Ryan and his party. I honestly strongly doubt we’ll be seeing a President Pelosi in February of next year.

But it’s not impossible.