Robert Williams on Lawfare has a suggestion for the North Korean situation – the United States should conditionally accept the Chinese proposal of North Korea freezing all tests and exports of nuclear & ballistic missile technology in exchange for scaling back US and South Korea joint military exercises. The condition? Professor Williams thinks that China should bring something to the table as well, such as a more robust enforcement of U.N. sanctions. But something rang a little false to my completely inexperienced ear:
The point here is not to suggest that a three-part deal with China and North Korea will necessarily work. Nearly any proposal designed to produce constructive negotiations with Kim’s regime must be viewed with an abundance of caution given the historical record and the fact that Kim sees nukes as essential to his survival. On almost any conceivable scenario, deterrence and containment will be cornerstones of U.S. strategy going forward.
There’s a key assumption that I have not seen questioned and/or bolstered anywhere is that Kim sees nukes as a key to his survival. Does he? The recent contretemps between Trump and Kim actually suggest something different – that Kim sees his advanced weapons capability as a lever for making further gains in the International game. Yes, survival is part of it – but the primary objective may be advancing such things as the North Korean economy, Kim’s prestige, and no doubt other things that don’t come immediately to mind. These may not be integral to his political survival, but by advancing them, he may make his position more secure, he may make his people more comfortable, he may even advance some lost ideological cause, although exactly what cause would not be lost under the North Korean flag escapes me.
Why is this important? Motivations dictate actions, even veiled actions. If we assume Kim is running scared and is surrounding himself with weapons that up the stakes world-wide just as a matter of survival, we may predict from that position that he’ll take an action which, in reality, he doesn’t care to take. We need to be sure of just exactly is motivating his development of nuclear weapons.
