The United States, particularly its more conservative politicos, has long sought regime change in Iran. What passes for American conservatives these days have also detested the achievements of the Administration of President Obama, so I think they perceive a chance for a two-fer if President Trump chooses to de-certify that Iran is adhering to the requirements of the nuclear deal (known as the JCPOA). This would deactivate the nuclear deal, endorsed by experts world-wide, but scorned by our amateurs in Congress, and thus eliminate a key Obama achievement.
The other half of this action this would permit the reassertion of sanctions of Iran that are now negated, leading, in their minds, to further damage to the Iranian leadership. The conservatives certainly appear to be pushing de-certification, as Barbara Slavin on AL Monitor reports:
Several Republicans opposed to the JCPOA have told this analyst that their aim is to goad Iran into violating the agreement by imposing more non-nuclear sanctions. The Associated Press reported that the Trump administration was considering demanding new inspections of Iranian military facilities in hopes that Tehran will balk. But such demands could also trigger a time-consuming process that might postpone US abrogation of the accord.
And, as Laura Rozen reports, also in AL Monitor, Trump is quite straightforward about this being political dislike rather than adherence to a deal:
Trump telegraphed his frustration over being urged by his Cabinet chiefs to certify Iran’s compliance with the nuclear deal at a White House meeting last Monday. He told The Wall Street Journal that he thinks Iran will be deemed to have breached the accord by the time of the next congressionally mandated certification deadline in the fall.
“We’ve been extremely nice to them in saying they were compliant, OK? We’ve given them the benefit of every doubt,” Trump told The Wall Street Journal in a July 25 interview. “But we’re doing very detailed studies. And personally, I have great respect for my people. If it was up to me, I would have had them noncompliant 180 days ago.”
Asked if he thought Iran will be declared noncompliant in the fall, Trump said he did. He added that while he respects Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, he would likely overrule a recommendation to certify in the fall.
“I think they’ll be noncompliant,” Trump said. “I think they’re taking advantage of this country.”
Or, you can read it honestly as, I made a promise to rip up the JCPOA and I’m going to do it, honestly or not.
The short-term issue is whether or not the second half of the two-fer would be achieved, and I think this seems unlikely. I could simply talk about the naked politics at work, and how a refusal to treat such an agreement in an honorable manner will be perceived by an Iranian public, or we could just look at survey results. These come from the University of Maryland’s Center for International and Security Studies:
Iranians expect President Donald Trump to be more hostile toward Iran than was former President Barack Obama. Seven in ten Iranians believe it likely that Trump may decide not to abide by the terms of the nuclear agreement. Attitudes about how Iran should respond if the United States violates the JCPOA have hardened: A clear majority now thinks that instead of taking the matter to the UN, Iran should retaliate by restarting the aspects of its nuclear program it has agreed to suspend under the JCPOA, if the United States abrogates the deal. A large majority see the new sanctions that Congress is likely to impose on Iran as being against the spirit of the JCPOA, with half saying it would violate the letter of the agreement as well.
Regime change requires support from the Iranian citizenry, so if the United States takes actions regarded as a betrayal of its agreement obligations, to be regarded as an example of a lack of honor by the American leadership, they are more likely to back their own regime than be angry at it. How can I be more clear?
Implicit in the process of regime change must be the proven charge that the regime is corrupt and/or incompetent to run the affairs of state. Tearing up the JCPOA in order to enforce the United States’ arbitrary will in a naked display of force is just another fucking amateur mistake by the pack of amateurs who also dragged us into the Iraq War.
But that’s just the short-term concern. I shan’t mince words: In the long term, the childish behavior by Trump and the anti-Iran forces to whom he listens are damaging the United States in the foreign relations arena. In the private sector, a small businessman like Trump could get away with exceptionally dubious behavior because the transmission of information in the private sector is not necessarily an efficient process. Few have the time to track down all the times Trump was sued by other small businessman for dishonoring agreements, and how many times he lost. If it were, all of his potential suppliers and builders might have just refused to work with him, and he might just be Donnie Trump, cashier at the Kum ‘n Go.
But now he’s up in the major leagues, and the heuristics of the private sector do not apply. Every word, every gesture, every action, every damn stupid tweet is examined for meaning, context, hypocrisy – and adherence. Adherence to honor, which translates in concrete terms to honesty and predictability. The less faith and confidence our allies, and, hell, our enemies have in us, the less influence we have across the globe. Through these childish actions with regard to the JCPOA, he puts our reputation and our ability to affect other people through the shredder.
Now, if his people do find concrete evidence of Iranian abrogation, great. Follow the prescribed procedures. Prove it to the world. Because these sorts of things must be handled very carefully. This may not be a shooting war, but a victory in this arena is just as important. Prove the theocrats in charge – who appear to indulge in the usual vices of all theocrats – are dishonest, can’t run the country properly. Declare a victory for your Administration.
That would be great. But it has to be done properly, or we’ll just look like Trumpian losers. That seems to happen on a weekly basis, and I’m getting tired of it.
