Does He Understand The Risk?

Chris Cillizza on CNN believes Trump is wasting his time jawboning, and even threatening, the GOP Senators over the ACA repeal and replace effort:

Trump knows exactly what he is doing here. He was making sure not only Heller but everyone else in that room — the wavering or opposed senators were clustered in and around Trump and Vice President Mike Pence — as well as anyone who saw the clip replayed later knew that he had put all of the GOP senators on notice. The threat had been delivered! He was tough!

Here’s the thing: It’s not going to work. Heller knows Nevada better than Trump. (Flashback: Trump saying that the people in the state of Nevada actually mispronounce the state’s name.) Trump saying Heller better change his mind or else isn’t going to actually, well, change Heller’s mind. Same goes for Shelley Moore Capito in West Virginia. Or Susan Collins in Maine.

Trump, in his own reckoning, already tried the carrot approach with senators. Now he’s going to the stick. But this is a lost cause. The Senate will vote next week. Repeal will almost certainly fail. And the Senate will move on — no matter what Trump says.

I don’t think Chris goes far enough. Trump is acting the bully, not the leader – and the Senators will remember this, regardless of whether it works or not. Come Impeachment Day, this incident will count heavily against Trump in their minds. Many of them will realize that kowtowing to Trump will result in a narrower, less democratic GOP, and leave them more and more vulnerable to a dictatorial party.

Of course, the Senate cannot initiate impeachment proceedings. But if Trump perceives this as a successful maneuver – and how can he not, given his ego-requirements? – then he’ll also try it in in the House. And while the House does not have the traditions and institutional memory of the Senate, a few incidents of this sort in the House may motivate such a move on their part as well.

Although given the troubles of the GOP members of the House in terms of popularity since Election Day, as well as simply delivering on anything at all, they may be too distracted to actually pursue impeachment proceedings.

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About Hue White

Former BBS operator; software engineer; cat lackey.

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