China’s latest coal consumption numbers come in via NewScientist (5 March 2016):
CHINA is surging ahead in its switch to renewables and away from coal – a move it claims will allow the nation to surpass its carbon emissions targets.
The country’s solar and wind energy capacity soared last year by 74 and 34 per cent respectively compared with 2014, according to figures issued by China’s National Bureau of Statistics this week.
Meanwhile, its consumption of coal dropped by 3.7 per cent, with imports down by a substantial 30 per cent.
Digging into that link at Climate Home is this disturbing, confusing tidbit:
The government had investments of $628 billion in the green economy planned up to 20301, Xie said, but admitted more support needed to be directed towards emissions data reporting, which experts say is unreliable.
“It is a question of ability … At every level of statistics there are exaggerations added to the data. Everyone knows that, and everyone is anxious [to fix it],” he said.
“We have set up a system to calculate and monitor energy saving and emission reduction, and are gradually improving it.”
Nevertheless, it appears it’s good news coming out of the second most populous country in the world – and one of the biggest polluters.
Meanwhile, the United States is also making progress, according to the Energy Information Agency Administration (EIA):
EIA estimates that U.S. coal production for February 2016 was 54 million short tons (MMst), a 4 MMst (7%) decrease from the previous month and 18 MMst less than in February 2015. Forecast coal production is expected to decrease by 111 MMst (12%) in 2016, which would be the largest annual percentage decline since 1958. In 2016, forecast Appalachian and Western region production declines by 9% and 17%, respectively, and Interior region production falls by 4%. Total coal production is expected to stabilize in 2017, increasing by 16 MMst (2%).
However, I am wary of taking production as an accurate proxy for consumption, i.e., take care when reading government reports. Further down the page is the information of interest:
EIA estimates that coal consumption decreased by 13% in 2015, mainly as a result of a 13% drop in electric power sector consumption. Coal consumption in the electric power sector is forecast to decline by 29 MMst (4%) in 2016 as a result of mild winter weather and continuing competition with natural gas generation. Electric power sector coal consumption is forecast to increase by 10 MMst (1%) in 2017 primarily because of rising natural gas prices. Retirements of coal-fired power plants, because of increased competition with natural gas generation and the industry response to the implementation of MATS, reduce coal-fired generation capacity in the forecast period.
While the estimated fall in consumption in 2015 is encouraging, that it’s due to milder weather is a little discouraging; it’d be better to know it came from retirement of coal-fired plants. This EIA page covers power plant retirements:
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Preliminary Monthly Electric Generator Inventory
Nearly 18 gigawatts (GW) of electric generating capacity was retired in 2015, a relatively high amount compared with recent years. More than 80% of the retired capacity was conventional steam coal. The coal-fired generating units retired in 2015 tended to be older and smaller in capacity than the coal generation fleet that continues to operate.
Coal’s share of electricity generation has been falling, largely because of competition with natural gas. Environmental regulations affecting power plants have also played a role. About 30% of the coal capacity that retired in 2015 occurred in April, which is when the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s Mercury and Air Toxics Standards (MATS) rule went into effect. Some coal plants applied for and received one-year extensions, meaning that many of the coal retirements expected in 2016 will likely also occur in April. Several plants have received additional one-year extensions beyond April 2016 based on their role in ensuring regional system reliability.
So … progress is made. Is it enough? Probably not.
But then, I’m a proud member of the Instant Gratification Generation.
