Unsightly Mental Blemishes

This I didn’t publish because I wasn’t sure if it was rust or moss. But who cares? My Arts Editor pronounced it pretty.

Not all the news about California water supplies is bad. NewScientist (22 October 2016) reports on a new tool in water management being deployed in the Sierra Nevadas – a sensory net:

In an attempt to take control of the state’s water cycle, a project called SierraNet is covering California’s mountains with networks of sensors. It will report snow and water conditions in unprecedented resolution, and allow monitoring of the unpredictable watersheds. The data will help California to manage its water and the hydroelectric dams that depend on it.

“We’ve operated our water systems by the seat of our pants for the past century,” says Roger Bales, a civil engineer at the University of California, Merced, who jointly leads the project. “We’ve operated with very little information, because there was plenty of water and not that many people.”

SierraNet distributes a mesh network of sensor packages that measure snow depth, humidity and air temperature, as well as solar radiation, soil temperature and soil moisture content. These sensor packs use a low-powered radio to relay the data they gather back through the mesh to a higher-powered base station.

The cost of not doing so?

California’s drought and the accompanying drop in hydroelectric generation is costly both for the economy and the environment, according to an analysis by Peter Gleick at the Pacific Institute think tank in Oakland, California. In the four years to September 2015, hydropower was down so much that it cost Californian ratepayers about $2 billion more over that period for their electricity, Gleick writes. “The additional combustion of fossil fuels for electric generation also led to a 10 per cent increase in the release of carbon dioxide from California power plants.”

SierraNet map. Source: UCB / UC-Merced

The University of California-Berkeley provides a map and real-time chart here. They also note some of the existential problems:

Dense forests make a challenging environment for WSNs [Wide area Sensor Networks]. A wild fire once ravaged an entire WSN (Duncan Peak). On a similar note, strong winds led to the collapse of a tree on one of the basestations.

obelus:

Feedback thinks this sounds positively confusing and can’t help but note that the ÷ symbol, or obelus (for that is its name), was historically used to denote questionable passages in manuscripts. [NewScientist (15 October 2016,  paywall)]

In Diary of a Madman (1963) Vincent Price takes center stage, occupying nearly every minute of a film that suggests a tangible, if invisible, entity is responsible for the enigmatic murderous behavior we occasionally observe in people. This is a leisurely tale that explores the various avenues of recourse available to a French magistrate who is periodically possessed by this mysterious entity, and must endure the consequences of its insatiable thirst for blood and horror.

This is a movie that lets you admire Price, if you are so disposed, for his fine manner, his unhurried pace even when throwing fire at his enemy. Not that the balance of the cast is unequal to the task, but Price is center stage and enjoys, I think, every moment of it.

The staging is elaborate, the cinematography very nice, and the audio more than adequate. The story is predictable in general, but twists may catch you unaware. The real pleasure is watching seasoned professionals plying their craft as they tell this cruel tale, from which we learn that even if we have a reason for the horrible tragedy of murder, it is still a horrible tragedy; understanding the agency does not free us from the mourning, and perhaps even deepens it.

But, still, there is a certain lack of anticipation; we know immediately how this story ends as it is told in one flashback after the protagonist has been buried. The only questions are, how will he die, and will he make it worthwhile?

It’s a good way to pass a snowy afternoon, or an evening with a mild head cold. You may grow impatient with it, though, if you had other alternatives, especially if you prefer your stories to be up-tempo.

syrinx:

But the earliest syrinx, an arrangement of vibrating cartilage rings at the base of the windpipe, was still a long way from producing the lilting notes of a blackbird. Instead, the extinct duck relative that possessed the organ between 66 and 69 million years ago was only capable of honking (Nature, doi.org/brvv).

NewScientist, “First birds made honking sounds more than 66 million years ago” (22 October 2016)

Iran may be a source of terrorists – or at least religious fervor – but sometimes they can express themselves in quite an old fashioned way. Such as this, from AL Monitor:

Larijani’s decisive victory in the battle for the speakership is said to have once again disheartened Aref — so much so that until today he has abstained from voicing support for Rouhani’s re-election. One lawmaker from Tehran who was among the nominees on the Reformists’ List of Hope told Al-Monitor, “Mr. Aref feels that he has been deprived of his rights in an ungentlemanly manner and is very depressed and does not have much desire to voice his opinion or have an active role.”

Ace in the Hole (1951) is a classic temptation/morality tale. A New York City newspaperman, Tatum (Kirk Douglas), finds himself in Albuquerque, New Mexico, scraping for a job. Cocky and sure of himself, he (quickly) stews in a podunk job, desperate to return to the excitement of the big city after disgracing himself out of it. The best solution? The big story to prove himself to the papers he so wants to work for.

And so temptation is dropped in his lap – a foolish man, exploring Indian caves, has become trapped in a rockfall. Tatum stumbles onto the story and recognizes that just a little enhancement might make this his ticket home. He talks to the trapped man, earns his trust. The sheriff shows up – caught up in a re-election campaign, he’s not a problem, he won’t interfere.

Then the mining engineer shows up, and this is a problem. He can rescue the man in hours.

Now Tatum’s dream threatens to drain away, but, see, he has the sheriff on his side. You shouldn’t go in through the mine shaft, no, no, no. Go in through the top of the mountain. It’ll only take, what, 5 days that way? The sheriff reinforces  the idea to the reluctant mining engineer, but money’s tight for everyone, so the mining engineer, against his better judgment, agrees; he’ll be fired, after all, and they’ll find someone else to do it their way.

And so it begins. The days may pass, but not those who pursue the dollar. The curious are organized and guided to the shearing stations: meals, drinks, carnival rides, radio interviews, anything to bring glory and loose wallets to this dusty old corner. The trapped man’s dissatisfied wife? The silver can sway even her.

You see it coming, don’t you? But that’s not the point, is it? Yes, of course, Leo, the trapped fool, desecrating Indian sacred caves, he must die, his befuddled mind collapsing in guilt and grime over how he treated his wife, confused that his little hobby could do this to him. Sure, pneumonia gets him.

But don’t be surprised by that. He’s played well, but he remains a plot pivot point, critical yet nearly invisible.

What about everyone else? What happens to those who manipulated the situation? And those who were manipulated? From the mining engineer to the big city reporters frozen out by Tatum, and even the crowds that melt away as soon as Leo is gone, from the wife to Tatum and the sheriff, these are the elements that interest, that might even teach us.

And they play out with what some might call the ring of truth. The mythology of our society would say that Leo should have been rescued immediately, that delaying his rescue for filthy lucre’ was immoral. But for those who’ve replaced community with money, they might find the essence of this story to be nothing more than an overreach – that Tatum strung it too long, that perhaps Leo should have been rescued earlier and the crowds lied to about his rescue. Tatum was presented with opportunity, and, like any good reader of Ayn Rand, he did something with it; this is merely a cautionary tale of the dangers of chasing the sacred nickel.

But for those of us who find simpler moralities to be more comfortable, this movie does ring true. Perhaps not everyone received a comeuppance, but enough do such that, when Tatum is face-down in the dust in front of his small-paper editor, the one who took a chance on him, the editor who is the boring, mundane voice of ethics, we realize that some people flub redemption – and we can feel a mixture of pity and, perhaps, relief that Tatum didn’t really benefit from his “minor” sin.

My Arts Editor commented half way through that she needed to stop and take a shower – “I feel slimy.” It’d be hard to find a better compliment for this fine story. With very little apparent effort it depicts the conflicting motivations of morality and greed, and how the ascendancy of the latter leads to the fall of those under its flickering glow. For all that, it’s not preachy; this is not a paean to ethics, but a grim & dirty examination of what happens when they’re abandoned.

The technical elements really match the quality of the story – great acting, believable dialog, good audio, beautiful black and white cinematography, etc etc.

It may be grim, but strongly recommended.

[edited 11/6/2016 – “this is not a paean to ethics”]

I suppose the Ayatollah will speak of keeping people on the right path, but it sure smells of jealousy of power. Saeid Jafari reports in AL Monitor concerning how the giants of Persian history have their fans – and their detractors:

Iranians have long been proud of their ancient history and culture, and they always speak of the Achaemenid Empire (circa 550-330 B.C.) with pride. Since the kings of this empire, and particularly Cyrus the Great and Darius the Great, ruled with benevolence and tolerance, they enjoy a particular affection among Iranians. Darius, in his famous prayer, wished for the empire to be protected from enemy armies, drought and lies. Though some historians doubt the authenticity of the prayer, its narrative has nonetheless been accepted by most Iranians. …

… in a new development, ordinary Iranians have in recent years flocked in an unprecedented manner to the Tomb of Cyrus in Pasargadae on Oct. 29, which has become known as the International Day of Cyrus the Great. Based on some historical records, it is the date when the Achaemenid king entered Babylon. Pasargadae is located to the north of Persepolis in the southern province of Fars. Apart from the Tomb of Cyrus, its main attractions include the Audience Hall, the Gate Palace and the Toll-i Takht fortification.

Sounds like a great party, celebrating the past, maybe learning some lessons.

Maybe not.

However, after the circulation of the videos and pictures of the gathering, criticism also followed. Ayatollah Hossein Nouri-Hamedani, one of the most senior clerics in the holy city of Qom, harshly criticized the gathering. Arguing that Iran had long been oppressed by kings and their imperial administrations, he said Oct. 30, “People rose and brought about the revolution and allowed the emergence of a true Islamic system. The shah used to say, ‘O Cyrus, sleep in peace as we are awake.’ Now, a group of people have gathered around the Tomb of Cyrus and they are circumambulating it and have taken their handkerchiefs out and cry [as they do for Shiite Imam Hussein]. In the time of Imam [Ruhollah] Khomeini, too, a group of people started commemorating Cyrus. The imam [Khomeini] said that these people have gathered and are crying because we have brought Islam to this country.” He added, “These are the same [people]; they are counter-revolutionaries. I am amazed that these people get together around the Tomb of Cyrus, shouting the same slogans for him that we shout in support of the supreme leader, and yet we are sitting here, alive and well, and just watching this.”

Cyrus appears to have been an interesting guy. FarsiNet has an article on a cuneiform cylinder, supposedly authored by him.

The charter of Cyrus the Great, a baked-clay Aryan language (Old Persian) cuneiform cylinder, was discovered in 1878 in excavation of the site of Babylon. In it, Cyrus the Great described his human treatment of the inhabitants of Babylonia after its conquest by the Iranians.The document has been hailed as the first charter of human rights, and in 1971 the United Nations was published translation of it in all the official U.N. languages. “May Ahura Mazda protect this land, this nation, from rancor, from foes, from falsehood, and from drought”. Selected from the book “The Eternal Land”.

I am Cyrus.
King of the world. When I entered Babylon… I did not allow anyone to terrorise the land… I kept in view the needs of Babylon and all its sanctuaries to promote their well-being… I put an end to their misfortune.From The First Charter of the Rights of Nations

Cyrus, The Great, 539 B.C.
Founder of The First Persian Empire

Wikipedia notes some historians characterize this as a traditional beginning to a reign, rather than an innovative statement of purpose; who am I to say? He does remind me of Napoleon (of whom I also know little) in that he’s reputed to have been an innovator in the realm of civil administration.

But apparently he’s a bad influence on Iranians.

Entree Kibbles is a food and travel blog which has this rather endearing picture in an entry on the recently completed Luohan Temple on Bintan Island.

I like it.

From Irna L Landrum on The Daily Kos, an interlude on the fossil fuel pipeline protest:

After dinner and fellowship around our own fire, everyone started retiring to their tents. As I snuggled into my sleeping bag, I could hear voices around me calling a name.* “Angelaaaaa. Angela!” The calls grew closer and louder, more people having joined in. A little girl had gone missing and people were out with flashlights trying to find her.

I didn’t panic. I heard so many voices and saw so many lights, I felt confident that Angela would be found quickly. Sometimes kids wander off.  And to be more honest than I’m comfortable with, I was very tired and needed to be up in a few hours, so I assumed that the thousands of people at the camp had it under control, and that I—one more person—wouldn’t make a huge difference. I would sleep and make sure I was well rested in the morning.

After a while of listening to people call for Angela I started to worry.

When it comes to Brexit, there’s now a chance to be leaders – will the UK Parliament blow it? From CNN/Money:

The U.K. High Court ruled that lawmakers should vote on whether the government can begin the formal Brexit process by triggering Article 50 of the EU treaty.

Experts say parliament is unlikely to block Brexit outright. But the ruling could mean Brexit is delayed, particularly by opposition in the upper chamber — the House of Lords. Lawmakers may get a chance to influence what kind of deal the government negotiates with the EU.

In my view, the referendum should never have occurred. The reason to have a representative government is to permit certain citizens the chance to become experts in the art of government. The referendum gave the busy, the amateurs, the contrarians, the uninformed, most of them good-willed, a chance to pitch in an opinion mostly limited to their personal experience.

Their High Court has now given Parliament an opportunity to revert that mistake by voting against Brexit. Although it appears the Labour Party is not willing to grasp the nettle:

The main opposition Labour Party has already said it won’t try to block Brexit and instead will use the ruling to push for a Brexit “that works for Britain, putting jobs, living standards and the economy first.”

And the report characterizes this as a defeat for the ruling Tories. But former PM Cameron was against Brexit; indeed, most of the Brexit advocates disappeared as soon as victory, surprising as it was, was achieved. They didn’t want the responsibility that came with that victory. The responsibility to clean up the impending mess.

If nothing else, reverting the decision would be a heartily deserved kick in the teeth for the Brexit advocates. And it might persuade the Scots to stick around as well.

More reader remarks, now concerning the Veteran’s Administration:

The GOP is always trying to privatize the VA, because they hate to see money spent on government that could line private pockets. Note that most complaints about the VA revolve around access to care (getting into the system, wait times, etc) and way less around the quality of care. The VA has had electronic medical records since forever, and they are really good about preventive care and wellness for the older vets (Korea, Viet Nam). But somehow waiting 3 weeks for an appointment at the VA is an affront that calls for abolition of the agency. Umm….. I’ved waited 6 and 8 weeks for appointments with specialists out here in the real world.

If we weren’t fighting so many wars, perhaps there wouldn’t be so much pressure on the VA. Another:

Yeah, the VA has problems. But that does not mean there’s some vast, secret left-wing conspiracy — which there would have to be if the there were some vast, left-wing media bloc — which of course there isn’t when Republicans own and control the 7 largest media companies, the only highly biased media company is biased strongly to the right (Murdoch’s empire), and there are dozens of major right-wing talk shows and zero left-wing, now that Air America has folded.

Yes. Just fix it, don’t put veterans in a situation where there’s an opportunity for more corruption. Another:

Interesting. I’ve been going to the VA for almost 45 years and have not had a problem at the MPLS VA hospital. In fact was there this morning.

I know from my father, ex Air Force, that it depended on which VA hospital you attended. Here in Minnesota they’re good; down in Mississippi, where some of my maternal relatives lived and attended the local VA hospitals, not so much. But that was 20 years ago.

Speaking of losing the Internet, here’s a report by Mahmut Bozarslan on AL Monitor, on what happens when a geographical area accustomed to the Web loses it:

I was in a clothing shop on the main street of Yenisehir district when a customer came in. After he finished shopping, he went to the cashier and wanted to pay with his credit card. The cashier apologized, saying she could not perform the transaction because the internet was down. The customer walked out visibly upset; sales personnel were also disappointed. Similar disruptions were reported from many businesses that rely on internet communications. …

“In hospitals, urgent cases cannot be issued medicines. Turk Telekom, GSM companies: You are committing a crime. You cannot turn off the internet because a governor or the minister asked you to. Communication is a right. People have already paid in advance for internet services. Now they should go and sue these companies. Don’t let them get away with it,” he said.

The disruption lasted 12 hours on the first day and was restored to normal late at night. The next day, the disruption lasted more than 12 hours. The next day, the internet went down an hour before a planned protest action and became the longest disruption at 27 hours. Providers were still citing technical problems, but by that time it became clear that somebody was ordering the service disruptions.

The health sector was one of those most affected by the disruptions. Pharmacies could not sell medicine or could only sell to those who could pay with cash. A desperate relative of a sick person told Al-Monitor that the pharmacist could not give him the medicine his relative needed.

A bus company in Diyarbakir solved the problem by subscribing to an internet satellite connection. Saban Dogmus, manager of the company, told Al-Monitor that it lost at least 50,000 Turkish liras ($16,000) over three days.

“We set up a new system via satellite. We were desperate. We still cannot handle credit cards. The new system doesn’t handle that,” Dogmus told Al-Monitor.

In disruptions that totaled 48 hours over four days, losses by businesses in the city are in the millions. Alican Ebedinoglu, the president of Union of Traders and Artisans, said city businesses are in a crisis. He said all traders are affected and the city’s economy is on the verge of collapse. “Let’s start with our union. We cannot issue any documents to our members. We cannot register any new members. Our connection to the tax offices is through the internet. Many of our traders have switched to wireless internet. They are now helpless. Our members had been suffering from the tensions and clashes in the area already, and now this. They are at end of their resilience — 80% to 90% of our business depends on internet. Businesspeople are about to rise up. A trader owes money and needs credit, but I cannot issue the documents he needs from us. This is a major crisis,” Ebedinoglu told Al-Monitor.

The cause?

Internet disruptions began a few hours after the detentions Oct. 26 of the co-mayors of Diyarbakir metropolitan municipality,Gultan Kisanak and Firat Anli. First we thought it was a local problem that usually doesn’t last long. Internet browser administrators said they had a technical problem. But as time passed, we learned the problem was not confined to Diyarbakir but covered many provinces of east and southeast Turkey. Nobody believed that a technical mishap would disrupt internet service in such a large area, and there must be something else behind it. Many believed that the internet was cut off to prevent the organization of protest actions against the detention of the co-mayors.

Your friendly credit card imprinter, still available.

It may be worth your while to keep some cash handy. As useful as credit cards may be, they do constitute a dependency on the Internet that only older businesses can handle – those that still have the mechanical credit card imprinters. They take an impression from your card (thus the raised lettering), transferring it via carbon paper to a receipt, and then they send the receipt in to the credit card company for the actual payment. Via the USPS.

And watch out for autocratic leaders, eager to “preserve public order” at any cost, because rioting reflects poorly on them. Don’t elect any of your own. Electing them is something only chumps do.

Simon Ings, in a book review of How The Zebra Got Its Stripes, notes the following eep-inducing biological adaptation – if you can call it that:

And Grasset has even more fun describing the occasions when, frankly, nature goes nuts. Take the female hyena, for example, which has to give birth through a “pseudo-penis”. As a result, 15 per cent of mothers die after their first labour and 60 per cent of cubs die at birth. If this were a “just so” story, it would be a decidedly off-colour one.

This is part of an aggregate review of four books that covers the slippery topic of scientific laws in biology, a convenience which gives us a better comprehension of the enormous biological world, but at the risk of occasionally getting it wrong. It’s a topic worth considering; the idea that laws apply to the biological world is actually a little slippery when we realize how poorly we understand the fine points of such laws. It’s easy enough when you’re dropping a ball off a cliff to measure gravity; it’s a lot harder when it turns out that an adaptation may have a downside. Consider, for instance, human intelligence. I’ve read, somewhere, that the reason we have such big skulls containing those brains that let us think about these things is because a mutation caused our jaw muscles, which attach around our skulls, to weaken. Without that strong muscle to restrain the skull, it grows bigger.

But now we’re more limited in what we can eat.

That’s an easy example. Creating descriptions of “laws” becomes a lot harder as statistical descriptions build on statistical descriptions. It ain’t turtles all the way down … but can you tell?

Makes you wonder about the basic physical laws…

(From NewScientist, 17 October 2016)

The MPR report on ACA rates raised some hackles amongst readers on Facebook. First up:

If people bail on paying their insurance (required by law, fined if you don’t have it, though the fine is minor at the moment) after expensive treatments, I’d say someone didn’t think through the financial incentives properly. That “someone” would mostly be legislators, but probably corporations involved in health care legislation as well.

People are always going to do what makes the most financial sense for themselves, _especially_ when stressed. Their altruistic, moral choices of following the intent of the law and making sure the system works by full participating (in this example) will be given quick short shrift when they feel like the health care industry and government are both screwing them, and/or they’re in a panic to pay their bills. Economy goes south? To hell with morals, put food on the table by canceling the health care insurance right after that necessary surgery. It’s an obvious choice.

Which tends to speak to single-payer. Next up:

The penalties are not high enough to actually force compliance, but there is no political appetite to raise them. Without full compliance, the pools are too small and full of older, sicker people. So there’s one problem.

Problem 2 was that the insurance industry did not know how to price insurance for sick people, so their initial estimates were way off. They want to recoup that money now. So premiums go up.

Root problem is that we have a for-profit medical services industry and a for-profit insurance industry. So medical services prices go up, with zero oversight or regulation, which raises the cost of medical care. The insurance companies have to pay some portion of that, and their CEOs want $30 million salaries and big stock prices, so the price of insurance goes up.

Which reminds me of the old Mayo Clinic model of rewarding wellness, not procedures. The procedures model works fine when the customer is an expert; a patient is very rarely an expert. Then an answer to my puzzlement:

Oh, Hue, this one: ” people in government health coverage are being steered into the private insurance market because their providers will get paid more that way.” I think that is things like VA services, where there are now some options to use private sector providers. There’s this huge push by the private sector to convince VA users that waiting a couple weeks for an appointment is intolerable so these patients will opt into private providers, who bill the government more than the VA does. I think.

I do know that the GOP has been pushing to privatize the VA. Here’s Steve Benen:

As Rachel notedon the show last night, privatization of veterans’ care is back as a Republican priority, as this Wall Street Journalreport yesterday helped prove.

Donald Trump says the Department of Veterans Affairs’ health-care system is badly broken, and this week his campaign released some guidelines that would steer changes he would implement if he wins the presidency.

While short on details, the presumptive GOP presidential nominee would likely push VA health care toward privatization and might move for it to become more of an insurance provider like Medicare rather than an integrated hospital system, said Sam Clovis, Mr. Trump’s chief policy adviser, in an interview.

Clovis told the newspaper, “We want quality care top to bottom. If that means we have some form of privatization or some form of Medicare, we don’t see anything wrong with that.”

Veterans, however, tend to have a very different opinion on the matter.

An opposing point of view from Accuracy in Media’s Roger Aronoff:

Instead, left-wing pundits such as Steve Benen of MSNBC warn that Republicans are working to privatize the VA. Focusing on a left-wing bogeyman, Benen’s report, although posted and updated on April 19, contains no mention of the GAO report about misleading wait times, the hearing, or the shredding of claims documents. Readers are left to wonder why, exactly, conservatives might wish to privatize the VA. After all, Benen isn’t reporting on any of the department’s problems.

We have reported, time and again that the news media ignore the biggest stories because they prove inconvenient to the left-wing agenda. While Benen writes of a conspiracy to make changes to how the VA offers care, the other half of the story is how the VA is failing veterans right now.

While there may be problems in the VA, the existence of problems does not justify the destruction of an institution with a long and honorable service record, nor the imposition of a solution which comes with its own set of problems. Insofar as Accuracy in Media goes, I’m not sure how far to trust them to be sincere. From their record, according to Wikipedia, they definitely had some troubles with the truth back during the Reagan era – but that was a long time ago. And how much should I trust Wikipedia?

Finally, another reader notes:

Dayton is getting ready to try and step in with a big subsidy.

I also noted in last night’s news broadcast that Minnesota Speaker of the House Daudt has rapidly changed his tune since a few nights ago, when he threw an impressive fit behind the microphone. Now he sounded quite more like … an adult. I wonder if his constituents called with complaints, or if he simply decided there were better ways to accomplish his goals.

Seeker.com reports on a brine lake found in the Gulf of Mexico:

Scientists have found an alien, inhospitable world not in the far reaches of the galaxy, but on the bottom of the Gulf of Mexico — about a day’s boat ride from New Orleans. Dubbed the “Jacuzzi of Despair,” this pool of super-salty brine kills any unfortunate creature that happens to wonder in — mainly benthic crabs, amphipods and an occasional fish.

The circular pool — about 100 feet in circumference and about 12 feet deep — lies nearly 3,300 feet below the surface of the Gulf. It contains water that is four or five times saltier than the surrounding seawater. As a result, the brine is so dense that it sits on the bottom, forming an underwater cauldron of toxic chemicals that include methane gas and hydrogen sulfide that doesn’t mix with surrounding seawater.

This was discovered using a remotely operated robot. I wonder if more could be found using sonar. The density should show up in sonar scans, I should think. Here’s a video introduction to the pool.

Egypt’s population density. Credit: Wikiwand

On this thread talking about countries sliding into authoritarianism we can add Egypt. Since 2011, Egypt has been subjected to various political perturbations, from the liberation from Mubarak’s rule to that of President Morsi, removed by the military after protests erupted when, according to Wikipedia, …

Liberal and secular groups walked out of the constituent assembly because they believed that it would impose strict Islamic practices, while Muslim Brotherhood backers threw their support behind Morsi. On 22 November 2012, President Morsi issued a temporary declaration immunising his decrees from challenge and seeking to protect the work of the constituent assembly.

Mansour was then installed, then replaced by ex-military leader el-Sisi. It now appears President el-Sisi and Parliament has little respect for civil society, as reported by Amira Mikhail on Lawfare:

In February 2012, following military-led raiding of several NGOs, judges convicted 43 nonprofit staff and sentenced them to between one and five years in prison. The crimes? Operating without a license and receiving foreign funds. This was the first phase of the “Foreign Funding” Case. In July 2014, the Ministry of Social Solidarity issued an ultimatum to all Egyptian and international nonprofits, ordering them to comply with the 2002 law within 45 days or face dissolution and possible criminal convictions or penalties. By September 2015, 500 nonprofits were closed down by the Ministry.

Even more concerning for the civil society, the government had been concocting a new NGO law that has been widely criticized for retaining all of the problematic provisions of Law 84 of 2002 and also giving the government veto power over nonprofits. With a court order obtained (under what showing is unclear and probably doesn’t matter anyway since the judiciary is not free to act independent of the state), the government would have the ability to close down organizations that it deems to be harmful to national security. The draft also gives the government the ability to monitor and interfere in a nonprofit’s internal governance and restrict its access to funding.

And it was “rubber stamped” by Parliament. Amira’s conclusion?

The repression of Egypt’s civil society is a big problem. Many of these organizations are the reason there is any reliable information about the real state of affairs in Egypt. A lot of what we know about the prolific use of torture, overcrowded prisons, extrajudicial killings, sectarian violence, police brutality, poverty, and the plight of street children is because of these nonprofits (and of course, what’s left of independent journalism in Egypt). It’s not like Egypt’s official mouthpieces would compensate for their loss; its stance has consistently been that “Egypt’s human rights should not have a western approach” or other vague statements denying widespread and systematic violations.

If Egypt’s version of human rights abided by the country’s own criminal procedure laws, its constitution, and its international legal obligations, many critics would not be quietly shaking their heads in dismay at the unabashed lies of the Egyptian government. But those lies are coming at a cost, which thousands of Egyptians—and even some Americans—are paying in hundreds of days in prison, and worse.

Is the motivation to stop communications that paints Egypt in a bad light? It seems to me that these communications motivate aid, and that helps Egypt. Perhaps they don’t realize that. Or perhaps it has something to do with the apparently murderous Muslim Brotherhood, although I’m not sure I can make a plausible case for it.

Any idea on what these might be? Send your guesses to me in mail, using the link to the right, or huewhite.umb@gmail.com.

Laura Spinney in NewScientist (15 October 2016, paywall) reports on an effort to encode and process history. It’s named Seshat, for the old Egyptian god of wisdom:

Why was the New Kingdom so advanced, and what triggered its downfall? There is no shortage of theories, and each has its champions. This is the way history tends to work: theories are put forward, their strengths and weaknesses are discussed, and then they line up alongside all the alternative ideas. Like old sailors, they never really die. A new project called Seshat, after the ancient Egyptian goddess of knowledge, aims to change that.

Seshat is a vast and growing database of historical and archaeological knowledge that can be explored using scientific techniques. That makes it a powerful tool for testing and ultimately discarding hypotheses. “A cemetery for theories,” is how Seshat co-founder Peter Turchin at the University of Connecticut in Storrs describes it. By making history more evidence-based, he and his colleagues hope it will become more relevant. They believe that understanding the forces that have shaped human societies in the past will give us more power to predict the future – and perhaps even to direct it by advising politicians and lawmakers on how to avoid the pitfalls of the past.

I find that last line particularly interesting, because it’s another step along the way to specialization. They’re trying to remove any requirement that politicians have training in history, and replace it with simple advice. I have mixed feelings on this, since experts are more likely to get it right – while this would seem to be a core competency for a politician.

Which may, in fact, be one of the silliest statements I’ve ever made.

But I can’t help but remark on some of the best politicians, such as Churchill, had an active interest in history; while today, some of the worst seem motivated only by ideology and not by any well-grounded view of history. Oh, they may think their historical knowledge is excellent – but is it? My experience is that it’s often skewed. I particularly beware of auto-didacts, who tend to have strong, wrong opinions.

From the Seshat web site:

We believe that our approach is the best way to provide meaningful answers to some of the most important questions about the human experience – how and under what circumstances does prosocial behavior evolve in large societies? What roles do religion and ritual activities play in group cohesion and cultural development? What is the impact of climatic and the environmental factors in societal advance? What mechanisms translate economic growth into quality of life improvements for the average person?

Of course, “facts” can be open to dispute. Spinney explains:

The unit of information is a “fact”, which can take the form of a binary choice (presence/absence of writing, for example), a numerical value, or a range of values. Each fact is based on the consensus of specialist historians who meet periodically at workshops, first to decide which variables to consider, and then to validate the facts collected. Facts can be accompanied by text that expresses uncertainty or controversy and, critically, provides sources. The data spans 10,000 years from the dawn of agriculture to the eve of the modern era in 1900.

A fascinating foray into an area not easily modeled mathematically.

There’s no shortage of ridiculous claims the world over. Here’s a recent one from Turkey, as reported by Pinar Tremblay inAL Monitor:

Al-Monitor reported in June that Islamist groups in Turkey have intensified their efforts around the Hagia Sophia. Today, the urging to open it as a mosque and for Erdogan to lead Friday prayers there has reached fever pitch. For proponents of the change, the Hagia Sophia as a museum symbolizes Turkey in chains; for independence to be complete, it must become a functioning mosque. A group called “Free Hagia Sophia” tweeted after the July 15 coup attempt, quoting a prominent religious scholar, “If we turn Hagia Sophia back into a mosque, all Turkey’s hard times and troubles will end.”

The Hagia Sophia is a former Greek Orthodox Church and Imperial Mosque, but now a museum. Precisely how returning it to its former status as a imperial mosque will end the hard times of Turkey is not entirely clear; it might be better understood that, rather than Turkey, the hard times for Muslims in Turkey will end. In other words, if Islam is not the pinnacle of political power in Turkey, if Turkey is still perceived as a secular nation, then Islam is suffering.

Thus religion as a vehicle for political ambition. And, by shifting away from the secular ladder of power to the religious ladder of power, the person whose qualifications are in the religious realm gains over those with secular qualifications. Not that I’m deluded to believe the latter is always more appropriate – politics can do strange things – but a religious qualification is, strictly speaking, never useful except for evaluating candidates for loyalty. I do not care if someone worships the Flying Spaghetti Monster when he’s flying a fighter jet – they’d better have the technical qualifications or that jet’s going to end up as a smoking heap of junk.

And the Hagia Sophia was an imperial mosque, denoting not only its official governmental function, but a certain military aggressiveness. So much for Turkey’s NATO ambitions…

MPR reports on the rising insurance rates:

Insurers have seen short-time policy holders drop their coverage and stop paying premiums after completing expensive medical treatments, said Schowalter, a former Minnesota budget commissioner.

Which defeats the purpose of insurance — which is to pool the resources and pay the costs of those who incur them from the group. But I suppose those doing that think they’re being smart; it might not hurt to announce that those folks will be remembered and placed in more expensive plans in the future. Even if they don’t actually follow through.

He also said there is evidence people in government health coverage are being steered into the private insurance market because their providers will get paid more that way. “That’s a serious concern that state regulators have been looking at as well as federal regulators.

This is opaque to me.

Since 2014, two carriers have pulled out of Minnesota’s individual market after suffering heavy losses. Those that remain have average premium hikes ranging from 50 to 67 percent, depending on the carrier. Most have limited the number of people they’ll cover.

Limiting the number of people they’ll cover … given how insurance works, either I don’t understand something or that’s madness.

Minnesota insurers underpriced their products initially to capture a bigger share of the individual market Wagner said. But since the federal Affordable Care Act changes took effect in 2014 they’ve collectively lost hundreds of millions of dollars on individual and family coverage.

So where does this money go? MPR’s expert, health economist Jean Abraham, closes the report with a warning:

The last drabs we found on Iglehart…

A reader comments on the ongoing ACA problems:

While I’m not among those that want to throw the ACA out completely, I still believe the health care _insurance_ system is completely broken.

All these $100/month people?! In what imaginary place is that? The first year (last year) I was on non-employer sponsored coverage, it was about $800/month. This year, it was over $1000/month. Next year, it will be $16000/month. That’s a 25% increase over last year to this year and a 60% increase from this year to next. And this is Minnesota.

And this is for a plan that has not paid any money yet, despite surgery and many thousands of dollars in bills, because the deductible is so high. If next year goes like this year, I will pay $20,000 for the privilege of being insured, and the only “benefit” I will get is “discounted” bills from the doctors but bills I have to pay nonetheless. At this rate, I will go broke before I can qualify for Medicare. Medicare, which if I can make it that long, may be the only chance I have of saving my financial health.

I’ve read that for most people in the America these days that life is a one strike and you’re out game — i.e. one health care disaster and you’re homeless.

So it’s not ACA that’s really broken, but rather a question of why rates continue to rise.

A reader sent this video on how a Diebold voting machine can be manipulated.

Technically, it’s not much – but the reaction of the one lady is quite affecting.