A Different Take On Making Batteries

From The Guardian comes a nice little energy scheme involving physics:

Britain’s cheapest “virtual battery” could be created by hoisting and dropping 12,000-tonne weights – half the weight of the Statue of Liberty – down disused mine shafts, according to Imperial College London.

The surprising new source of “gravity energy” is being developed by Gravitricity, an Edinburgh-based startup, which hopes to use Britain’s old mines to make better use of clean electricity at half the cost of lithium-ion batteries.

Gravitricity said its system effectively stores energy by using electric winches to hoist the weights to the top of the shaft when there is plenty of renewable energy available, then dropping the weights hundreds of metres down vertical shafts to generate electricity when needed. …

Charlie Blair, Gravitricity’s managing director, said: “The beauty of this is that this can be done multiple times a day for many years, without any loss of performance. This makes it very competitive against other forms of energy storage – including lithium-ion batteries.”

This one looks good.

I like it. Efficient, presumably quiet, utilizing otherwise wasted locations, not likely to billow clouds of pollution and climate change gases. Yeah!

Belated Movie Reviews

This is Humphrey Bogart losing money.

I finished Beat The Devil (1953) last night.

It took me two years, I think.

It has Humphrey Bogart, Peter Lorre, and some other stars. They’re all playing swindlers and ne’er-do-wells.

I hated it.


Having reviewed the Wikipedia entry, I don’t recall a voiceover, so I may have seen a 4K restoration of the original, rather than the voiceover version. Or not. I think my brain is trying to salvage the brain cells I used on it.


This Is How You Encourage Corporate Incompetency, Ctd

Readers comment on the Boeing Board of Directors handling of the dismissal of the CEO:

Hear, hear Hue! Boeing lost their way. It seems to be a larger management issue or the loss of their primary goal. Safety first. Instead they build a new plane that pilots don’t know how to handle. All they’ve done since the MAX crashes is treat it like a PR problem. I know Boeing employees that are very angry. I hope they find their way.

Indeed. It is disappointing, though, to see that Muilenburg holds a Bachelor’s degree in Aerospace Engineering; this cannot be blamed on an MBA concentrating on profit.

Another:

I suspect the board itself highly profited off the same attention to profit at all costs priorities of the CEO, so in more than one way, they are complicit and simply paying off one of their own. There was a long chain of decisions that lead to this fiasco, not just one.

Possibly. On the other hand, the Wikipedia page on Muilenburg includes this action by the board:

On October 11, 2019, Boeing announced that the board had voted to separate the roles of chairman and chief executive officer, both of which were held by Muilenburg.

Generally, I don’t like to see the CEO holding a board position as well, since that makes the CEO his or her own boss, so at least the Boeing board is making motions of responsibility. Whether they’re honest or not will need to be evaluated in the future.

Misconceiving Your Job

Right here in Minnesota we’re having a Presidential Primary in March of next year, and the Republican ballot has been restricted to a single name. Jim Martin is unhappy:

[The Republican central committee] interpreted the new [Minnesota] law to mean that it has the power to choose which name will be printed on its political party’s ballot, and (more importantly) whose will not[3] despite the desire of other candidates to politically associate with its related political party[4]For the first time since we obtained statehood in 1858, we Minnesotans are unable to politically associate with the candidates who are seeking our support. In other words, you and I must first obtain the express permission of the central committees in order to advance the nomination of a candidate seeking to be elected!

But, it gets worse. As an absentee voter, I will receive and turn in my ballot early. As the candidate I desire to advance might not be printed on the primary ballot I receive, I will have to write-in that candidate’s name. However, the central committee is not required to inform anyone what names will be canvassed until about a month after I submit my ballot. In other words, I don’t have any way of knowing if my vote will be counted at the time I cast it!

Our longstanding history of a healthy and honest republic is damaged; our democracy is breaking down; the walkway has been paved for an egregious Soviet-style election process; and, as I demonstrated earlier[5], the corrupt election practices allowed by this law is openly taking place.

And he’s filed a lawsuit with the Minnesota Supreme Court. When I first discussed it, I skipped over this quote from Minnesota Republican chairwoman Jennifer Carnahan:

“My job as Chairwoman is to make sure we deliver our 10 electoral votes to the President.”

It’s really indicative of the second-raters who now run the machinery of the Republicans that they believe their job is to support President Trump in his reelection campaign, rather than give the Republican Party’s base the opportunity to select the best candidate available, whether his or her name is Trump, Walsh, Sanford, or Weld. Right now the Republican upper echelons appear to be a bunch of terrified mice, ready to do anything their master directs, rather than actually think about what’s best for country and party.

What does Carnahan fear? That Trump isn’t the big winner in Minnesota that he should be, if we’re to believe the polls? Or that if other, serious candidates appear, the base might look at them and decide they’re tired of the rampant incompetency and corruption of Trump and pick someone else?

Or even just make him look bad by winning more than 10%?

Carnahan looks like a fool. She really should retract her statement and her position. Put the other names on the ballot! Go Martin!

One Last Bit Of Lunacy, Ctd

It appears the story concerning former Governor Matt Bevin’s (R-KY) use of the pardon power to free a large number of criminals isn’t about to peter out after all.

The FBI is asking questions about the pardons Matt Bevin issued during his last weeks as Kentucky governor, The Courier Journal has learned.

State Rep. Chris Harris, D-Forest Hills, told reporters that a criminal investigator contacted him last week and asked what he knew about Bevin’s pardons.

Harris did not elaborate on what questions were asked, and he declined to say which law enforcement agency contacted him.

“I can confirm that I have been contacted by someone looking into the pardons that were issued by Gov. Bevin on his way out the door,” he said. “The impression I got is that there was an investigation ramping up.”

Two sources with knowledge of the inquiry told The Courier Journal on Monday that an FBI agent had spoken with Harris. An FBI spokeswoman declined to comment, saying the agency could “neither confirm nor deny the existence of said investigation” when reached late Monday night.

State prosecutors and leaders such as U.S. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell have condemned several of Bevin’s decisions, particularly his pardon of Patrick Baker, who had served two years of a 19-year sentence for reckless homicide and robbery in the slaying of a Knox County man in front of his family.

The Courier Journal reported on Dec. 11 that Baker’s brother held a campaign fundraiser at his home for Bevin in July 2018 that raised $21,500. The former governor also received a letter from business executive Terry Forcht, one of the state’s Republican mega-donors, urging Bevin to pardon Baker. [The Courier Journal]

While it might be premature to leap to the conclusion that Bevin was bribed with a mere $21,000 campaign contribution, the involvement of Terry Forcht, Chairman & CEO of the Forcht Group, a banking group, is a little puzzling. I hope the FBI will be investigating the motivations for that letter as well.

While we wait for the investigations to come to fruition, I wonder just how quickly our Teflon President will deny any sort of relationship with the former Governor. Remember how his former 2016 campaign manager, Paul Manafort, abruptly became nothing more than a short-term staffer?

The Trump campaign claimed Trump’s campaign rally on the eve of the recent election had dragged Bevin across the finish line ahead of the eventual victor, Democrat Andy Beshear. Will they deny that Trump even showed up at the rally? That Trump has never met Bevin? That Bevin doesn’t exist?

Inquiring minds wait in trembling eagerness!

Damn, I wish I had some sort of drawing ability. This just cries out for a cartoon.

Belated Movie Reviews

These are food items #3 and 4. Enjoy, sir!

The next in our Christmas movie marathon is Poseidon Rex (2013). Treasure hunters poking around off the coast of Belize provoke some ancient horror, and soon it’s off at a gallop, gulping down little tidbits from the buffet, while the humans do the running and screaming thing. Throw in the local Mob and some execrable special effects, and it’s a right royal forgettable mess.

About the only points I’ll score in their favor is the lady marine biologist and the fact that not all the good guys survive to the end. Make it into a betting pool and have more fun!

And What Are The Long Term Effects?

WaPo has a fascinating article on technology intersecting with college campus life:

When Syracuse University freshmen walk into professor Jeff Rubin’s Introduction to Information Technologies class, seven small Bluetooth beacons hidden around the Grant Auditorium lecture hall connect with an app on their smartphones and boost their “attendance points.”

And when they skip class? The SpotterEDU app sees that, too, logging their absence into a campus database that tracks them over time and can sink their grade. It also alerts Rubin, who later contacts students to ask where they’ve been. His 340-person lecture has never been so full.

“They want those points,” he said. “They know I’m watching and acting on it. So, behaviorally, they change.”

It sounds like a classic case of mistaken metrics: attendance as a proxy for learning, doesn’t it? I have to wonder if the goals of the universities utilizing this technology, which reaches beyond Syracuse to Virginia Commonwealth University, University of California San Diego, Auburn, and a number of others, are being redefined by these educational institutions by adding attendance to modify the grades of the students, negative or positive. But how is attendance related to grades? What if the student is asleep, daydreaming, or otherwise preoccupied? If I were a college administrator, I’d be looking at this technology and wondering if we were being led astray. And is the technology guaranteed?

SpotterEDU’s terms of use say its data is not guaranteed to be “accurate, complete, correct, adequate, useful, timely, reliable or otherwise.”

In other words, SpotterEDU is saying Aren’t we cool? Keep your eyes on the cool-ness! But the article notes that sometimes it’s indeed not working properly (and as a professional data pusher myself, I’m appalled that those stories exist), and I cannot decide if this is bad or good, since such problems are good preparation for students to learn the world is a lot more uncertain than some might realize.

But this analysis isn’t going to be as clean-cut as one might expect. Consider this:

But the company also claims to see much more than just attendance. By logging the time a student spends in different parts of the campus, Benz said, his team has found a way to identify signs of personal anguish: A student avoiding the cafeteria might suffer from food insecurity or an eating disorder; a student skipping class might be grievously depressed. The data isn’t conclusive, Benz said, but it can “shine a light on where people can investigate, so students don’t slip through the cracks.”

To help find these students, he said, his team designed algorithms to look for patterns in a student’s “behavioral state” and automatically flag when their habits change. He calls it scaffolding — a temporary support used to build up a student, removed when they can stand on their own.

At a Silicon Valley summit in April, Benz outlined a recent real-life case: that of Student ID 106033, a depressed and “extremely isolated” student he called Sasha whom the system had flagged as “highly at-risk” because she only left her dorm to eat. “At every school, there are lots of Sashas,” he said. “And the bigger you are, the more Sashas that you have.”

There is definitely something to be said for providing help to students who are often away from home for the first time. For the non-gregarious, trying to tough it out may work, but then again you may end up with suicidal students.

But I still find this addition to campus life ominous and unsettling. Part of college life is learning what works and what doesn’t. The closing of the opportunity to make mistakes and learn from them means diminished results for those who come out of that school, with or without a degree.

Some of this is justified as a way to baby-sit “student-athletes,” but to my mind that’s simply admitting that it’s very inappropriate for educational institutes to host the minor leagues of football. We’d be better off dumping the entire NCAA Football program and get back to education.

So it’ll be interesting to watch how higher education changes as students, who are not criminals, are more closely monitored than criminals.

Belated Movie Reviews

Foreshortening. Nyah, that candy cane isn’t nearly that big.
It’s bigger -!

Kicking off the Christmas movie marathon (isn’t that everyone’s task for today) is Anna and the Apocalypse (2018), which we fully expected we wouldn’t finish.

We were wrong. In fact, we watched all the way through the credits, hoping for an Easter egg – no spoiler alert, you’ll have to watch for yourselves.

Part way through, my Arts Editor turned to me and said, I’m surprised. This doesn’t suck. It gets off to a slow start, feeling like a teenage angst movie, with rebellion against parents and all that sort of thing. But then it goes after the Glee[1] vibe, intertwining juvenile lyrics with well-composed and performed music; my Arts Editor is a particular fan of the rap song.

As the story progresses, though, the students find that reality is destroying the semi-fantasy that is high school. Children are disappointments to their parents; parents are disappointments to their children. Boy toys disappoint the ladies, and the guys keep hoping to be noticed. How to progress beyond it is a puzzle that everyone must solve for themselves.

Music is its own little world.

And then things go boom, and it’s a race for their lives, watching friends & family die as the world crumbles around them, even as the songs continue to pop out, but ever more darker, and when the survivors win through, it’s not a Hollywood ending.

At least we can be thankful that the zombies never sang.

Well acted, well sung, with an enticing hint of madness in the air as our shared view of what is breaks up, revealing the chaotic swirl in which we may really live, we were very surprised at the quality of both the story and the production. Some of my enchantment is a reaction to how superior the movie was to expectation, so I won’t place it in the Recommended category, but if you do run across this, or are in the mood for a cross-genre story which felt quite organic, you only need to endure ten or so minutes of the opening before events take an interesting turn. Be warned, though, there is a touch of violence.

Merry Christmas!


1 A successful TV show concerning a high school glee club, featuring a lot of singing, sort of a musical about growing up in television format, now terminated.

Word Of The Day

Rafter:

In Toms River, N.J., they have terrorized an over-55 community, attacking cars and pecking kiddie pools unto deflation. While flocks (a group of wild turkeys is called a rafter) have left their notable calling cards in communities in New Jersey, they have crashed through windshields in Florida, pecked their way into police stations in Massachusetts, and in Utah become such a nuisance that 500 were rounded up and relocated to the deep woods. [“Wild turkey menace: Angry birds are pecking cars, deflating kiddie pools and harassing the elderly,” Laura Reiley, WaPo]

Several sources suggest that a group of wild turkeys is actually a flock, while a rafter is a group of domestic turkeys.

Typo Of The Day

Say again?

Lashley points to two pieces of historic legislation that established the framework for turkey population rebound: The Lacey Act of 1900 that banned trafficking in illegal wildlife … [WaPo]

Excuse me, but what the hell is illegal wildlife? Is this wildlife required to have a license in order to exist? I’m seeing a pride of lions, each with their license hanging around their neck from a chain, tastefully framed and licked clean of their victim’s viscera, as they gallumph across the savanna.

Disagreement Is Better Than Denial, Ctd

If you need more reassurance that some Republicans remain sane, consider this story from The Transylvania Times of North Carolina:

Transylvania County Commissioners David Guice, Mike Hawkins and Page Lemel have left the Republican Party. …

“This is not an action we do happily, and it is not a choice we take lightly,” the announcement said. “It comes after much prayer, reflection and discussion among us and with our loved ones. In leaving, we are ending a long association that is deeply personal. Between us, we have won 20 different elections as Republicans in Transylvania County.”

The announcement noted three “broad areas” for their decision to leave the party: “First, we have clear notions of conservatism. To be conservative is to honor and preserve the fundamental institutions, processes, structures and rule of law, which have enabled the United States to be history’s greatest success story. To be conservative is to be financially prudent while also investing in common ground works that support individual success for all citizens. To be conservative is to be welcoming and inclusive, understanding that all of us share the same human aspirations; conservative tenets of self-determination cannot be exclusive. To be conservative is to have a strong moral compass and the willingness to challenge wrong regardless of its source. We believe all of these are not merely conservative principles but American principles.

“Next, we believe elected officials have a special duty to conduct themselves beyond reproach and make genuine efforts to represent all their constituents. Elected officials must strive to conduct all public and private actions with honor and integrity. Elected officials must value objective truth and, in turn, be truthful in their own statements and interactions. And elected officials must continually work to hear the voices of all while making hard decisions on behalf of their fellow citizens.

And the third had to do with the non-partisan character of local government. Their willingness to say No! to the nature of team politics, and the incompetent ideologists to which it leads, gives me heart. As leaders of distinction, their leave-taking will inevitably lead to discussion by those left behind in the Republican Party, and serve as exemplars of proper behavior when the actions of the leaders cause even the zealous follower anxiety.

In an interview also in the article, Lemel gives us a cogent and revealing remark:

I am grateful for the work of the party for supporting me in the past. I no longer want to ascribe to partisanship. We are rapidly entering one of the most rancorous and divisive elections our nation has ever seen. I am a local elected official. National and state politics do not enter into my service as a county commissioner. My service is to Transylvania County.

History has seen us in challenging times before, and I specifically reference U.S. Sen. Margaret Chase Smith’s speech “Declaration of Conscience” from June 1, 1950. Her citation on the “Four Horsemen of Calumny (Fear, Ignorance, Bigotry and Smear)” and her discussion of “Irresponsible Sensationalism” truly resonated with my sense of integrity, honesty and morality. She called out both of our major parties for their role in confusing the citizens and threatening the security and stability of our country. I will not be a party to accusations, bitterness and selfishness on the part of our politicians and our political parties.

That she mentions bitterness and selfishness tells us something about Republican politics, and perhaps Democratic politics as well, but since she’s now a former Republican, one must assume her exposure would be greater to them.

It sounds like the Republican Party, at least in Transylvania, NC, is gradually burning up.

But For Leadership, A World Was Lost

Reading this report from GL Reynolds, an environmental consulting firm, for a couple of environmental charities on the effects of a world-wide reduction of 20% in the speed of the shipping fleets reminds me that the climate is, at its most basic, the largest imaginable example of the tragedy of the commons. First, the potential benefits of fuel consumption and reduction in CO2 production:

The reduction in fuel consumption of a ships’ main engine and the proportionate reduction in CO2 emissions within most speed ranges is well established. As a rule of thumb, a cubic relation between ship speed and main engine fuel consumption is assumed. When a ship reduces its speed by 10%, engine power is reduced by 27%, but since it takes longer to sail a given distance at a lower speed, the energy required for the voyage is reduced by 19%. Other factors will also influence the relationship between ship speed and engine power including weather conditions and, at a fleet level, the additional ships which may be required to provide the same transport work. As a consequence, the fuel and CO2 emission reductions associated with slower ship speeds are likely to be lower.

Recent work by Faber et al estimated the CO2 emission reduction potential for a 10, 20, and 30% speed reduction for the three major ship types for the period 2018-2030. Although the specific level of emission reduction was dependent upon ship type, overall the analysis indicated that the baseline CO2 emissions could be reduced by around 13% and 24%, if ships reduced their speed by 10% and 20% respectively.

Other forms of pollution, as well as effects on marine wildlife are covered as well – to summarize, they are positive to a greater amount than might be expected. The other good news, from the BBC, is that the shipping industry is in step with these recommendations:

While shipping wasn’t covered by the Paris climate agreement, last year the industry agreed to cut emissions by 50% by 2050 compared to 2008 levels.

Which all sounds fine and dandy, doesn’t it? But keep in mind that a general rule of business is that time is money, and the firm that can ship quicker has the potential to ship more in a calendar year – and make more money. Suppose a firm finds itself in a difficult situation, but if it can ship more product, it’ll survive – or make more profit.

Does it adhere to a 20% reduction in speed? Or does it figure that its tiny little contribution is immaterial? And then its competitors notice and they think …

It almost sounds hopeless, because the oceans are big and ships hard to track. But there’s an unless here: Unless you happen to have the United States on your side. With the American satellite network, and American high technology, it is possible to track any ship that can be detected from orbit, whether visually or via transponder. And then track its speed.

The sad part is that American leadership is completely lacking. For the current Administration, short-term profit symbolizes success; anything that may impinge on that profit is considered to be evil. And therefore, it seems unlikely that any American leadership will come forward before the end of the Trump Administration.

Word Of The Day

Repair:

repaired; repairing; repairs
intransitive verb

    1. : to betake oneself : GO
      repaired to the judge’s chambers
    2. : to come together : RALLY
  1. obsolete : RETURN [Merriam-Webster]

English words belong to several categories, depending on the attribute of interest. In this case, I’m focusing on meaning or definition(s), and the categories available include single-meaning, disparate, and opposites; there are others, obviously, although, to digress a trifle, I’ve noticed that the public vernacular has begun blurring out the implication that includes means the following list is not complete. A pity, as it results in ambiguous communications and fairly gauche sentences.

I must admit to a certain interest in words which fall into the disparate category, and repair is one such. We all know its sometime synonym, fix or to fix[1], but how often do we use repair in the above sense? That disparity in definitions intrigues me, as there may be a hidden connection between fixing and betaking oneself, and that connection might lead to insights into how people 500 years ago viewed the world. Words, after all, reflect our views of reality with an intensity rivaled only by art; and some compositions of words achieve the level of art.

Such are my preoccupations. Merry Christmas!


1 Whichever is right; the finer points of transgressive verbs are lost on me, although a few years back I finally grokked that dangling participles are bad because they make the point of a sentence ambiguous, which may be useful in poetry but not most communications – and, yet, English speakers break that rule with vigor everyday, which leaves one to wonder if we’re all just broken or if we have an allergy to precision – or does that ambiguity have some sort of survival value?

This Is How You Encourage Corporate Incompetency

If you’re a corporate board member and you’re kicking out the guy whose decisions have endangered the company, the last thing you want to do is hand him a substantial leave-taking check. CNN reporting:

Boeing’s ousted CEO Dennis Muilenburg left behind a long list of problems at Boeing, but he’s walking away with a sizable golden parachute.

The exact amount of money that he will leave with isn’t yet clear. That will depend on his negotiations with Boeing (BA), including how the company labels his departure — for example, was it a retirement? A resignation? A layoff?

But public filings show Muilenburg could be entitled to a benefit plan worth more than $30 million and, potentially, a severance payment of about $7 million. Muilenburg also has another $20 million-plus worth of vested stock and a pension package totaling more than $11 million.

Muilenburg, 55, became CEO of Boeing, the world’s largest aerospace company, in 2015 after serving in several other executive roles, including chief operating officer and CEO of its defense space and security division, throughout his 34-year tenure at the company at Boeing.

For those who long to take on top-dog roles, it’s necessary that they be aware that failure to execute on basic responsibilities will be met with condemnation – object lessons, as we used to call it in an earlier generation. With Muilenburg, no such lesson is being delivered – his decisions to chase the money without respect to producing safe products will be rewarded with financial gifts beyond most folks’ dreams.

To be clear, I’m not talking about a failure to reach profit targets; I’m talking about basic errors made in the necessary safety culture. Make no mistake, the 737 MAX crashes, which appear to be traceable to a prioritization of profit over safety, endangers the very safety of Boeing. If the culture which engendered unsafe designs is not rebuilt to put safety first, Boeing could easily become a subsidiary of a better run company, or even an extinct failure[1].

And while the next CEO may understand that intellectually, they also may not. For some folks, the money, prestige, and power blind them to their responsibilities – think of former Wells Fargo CEO John Stumpf, or even more to the point, President Trump and his apparent violations of the Emoluments Clause. A visible lesson of the fruits of irresponsibility would be salutary, as they say.

Muilenburg should not have been rewarded with a ‘package.’ The board of directors of Boeing should be attempting to claw back all of his compensation, and his employment contract should have been worded to permit that. The Board of Director’s real-world actions are endangering their own company.

Combine this with the corruption under the Trump Administration, and extend that to another four year term. Can the FAA keep the skies safe? I’m not sure. Maybe I won’t fly so much, which would be good for our climate. Incidental positives are not a good pollution control strategy, unfortunately.


1 The needs of the airline industry might require the government to step in and at least ensure continuing maintenance, but the days of a high-flying Boeing – forgive the pun! – would be over.

When Reality Slaps You

Too bad I missed this when it happened back in November, but it still makes me laugh in that morbidly queasy way we use when we shouldn’t be giggling:

Minutes after right-wing members of Venice’s Venito council rejected measures designed to combat climate change, the council chamber was flooded by historic high tides from the city’s Grand Canal. [Independent]

At this remove, it’s difficult to say if the right-wingers merely disagreed with the proposed tactics, or if they were simply in denial. The Environmental Committee chairperson, Andrea Zanoni, certainly has his opinion:

He added that the council was “proposing funding for renewable sources, for electric columns, for the replacement of diesel buses with others more efficient and less polluting for the scrapping of stoves, to finance the pacts of mayors for sustainable energy and climate change, and to reduce the impact of plastic, etc”.

And I wonder if the Mayor, despite recognizing the problem, realizes what the cost may be:

The historic floodwaters would leave “a permanent mark”, mayor Brugnaro tweeted. “Now the government must listen. These are the effects of climate change… the costs will be high.”

My feeling? Venice will be an early illustration of how a city is lost to the sea. Miami is reportedly not far behind. I expect we’ll see Venice slowly abandoned over the next 50 years, becoming a site visited by disaster tourists and underwater archaeologists.

Next comes Miami and its skyscrapers. That should make for an interesting scene, especially when the big buildings begin to collapse from corrosion.

Poisoning Your Agenda

Andrew Sullivan engages in a useful exercise that illustrates the danger Trump brings not only to the United States, but to his own supporters particular agenda:

There is merit, at times, to thinking about what might have been. Counterfactual history can help us see what our factual history has actually told us.

So reflect for a second on the campaign of 2016. One Republican candidate channeled the actual grievances and anxieties of many Americans, while the others kept up their zombie politics and economics. One candidate was prepared to say that the Iraq War was a catastrophe, that mass immigration needed to be controlled, that globalized free trade was devastating communities and industries, that we needed serious investment in infrastructure, that Reaganomics was way out of date, and that half the country was stagnating and in crisis.

That was Trump. In many ways, he deserves credit for this wake-up call. And if he had built on this platform and crafted a presidential agenda that might have expanded its appeal and broadened its base, he would be basking in high popularity and be a shoo-in for reelection. If, in a resilient period of growth, his first agenda item had been a major infrastructure bill and he’d combined it with tax relief for the middle and working classes, he could have crafted a new conservative coalition that might have endured. If he could have conceded for a millisecond that he was a newbie and that he would make mistakes, he would have been forgiven for much. A touch of magnanimity would have worked wonders. For that matter, if Trump were to concede, even now, that his phone call with President Zelensky of Ukraine went over the line and he now understands this, we would be in a different world.

But instead …

The two core lessons of the past few years are therefore: (1) Trumpism has a real base of support in the country with needs that must be addressed, and (2) Donald Trump is incapable of doing it and is such an unstable, malignant, destructive narcissist that he threatens our entire system of government.

Perhaps Hillary Clinton’s biggest mistake, in retrospect, wasn’t her failure to campaign in key states, but her use of the word deplorables. As the election proved, there’s a sizable minority of the population with concerns that were not being addressed until Trump came along; Clinton alienated them with that unfortunate word.

But through the election of a strong candidate for Worst President Ever, those voters, his constituents, his base, what I call his cult, have put at risk their entire set of concerns. While some of those concerns have had strong attention over the years, such as opposition to abortion, and were unlikely to be treated by those on the other side in a way satisfactory manner, other issues were unaddressed, such as small farmer concerns, other rural concerns, gay rights, local economic blight, and a general feeling of neglect as to their concerns, while federal actions – no matter how well meaning, how justified – were taken without their approval.

And now Trump, by being an incompetent and even malicious President, puts that set of concerns in peril. Those voters picked someone who lied and lied and lied, and when that got him into office, he just kept on going. For those opposed to Trump, liberal or independent, it’s become something of an obsession: lies, incompetency, corruption. Condemn, condemn, condemn. And it’s important and valid.

But behind that sodden paper-maché wall of oozing pus, there still lie those voters’ concerns. Trump’s successors may be those that successfully address those concerns, whether it be by demonstrating them to be false, or by bringing aid, policy changes, and comfort to those afflicted. All this while finding ways to defuse the political sepsis infused into their blood stream by the malicious emails that are designed to enrage them.

That’s one hell of a mountain to climb.

As Internet Memes Invade Outer Space

While the name Ultima Thule, referring to the space rock 2014 MU69 which was surveyed by the New Horizons space probe, had a lovely exotic taste to it, it also had an unfortunate referent to it:

Goodbye Ultima Thule, hello Arrokoth. The space rock that NASA’s New Horizons probe sped past earlier this year has been given a new name: Arrokoth, which means “sky” in the Powhatan and Algonquian languages.

The rock’s official designation is 2014 MU69, but the New Horizons team nicknamed it Ultima Thule, a mythological reference to a distant and mysterious land. The nickname faced a significant backlash after a reporter at Newsweek pointed out that the Nazi party used the phrase to refer to the mythical homeland of the Aryan people. [NewScientist]

While casting aspersions on the name Ultima Thule just because a bunch of barbarians used it to symbolize a mythical homeland seems a little short-sighted, I like Arrokoth, too. It’s properly inclusive, and has its own exotic mouth-feel, at least for me.

Although, if they had retained Ultima Thule and emphasized its barrenness, it would have brought to the fore the worthlessness of Nazi ideology.

So, onward to a picture of Arrokoth.

“This composite image of the primordial contact binary Kuiper Belt object 2014 MU69 (officially named Arrokoth) was compiled from data obtained by NASA’s New Horizons spacecraft as it flew by the object on Jan. 1, 2019. The image combines enhanced color data (close to what the human eye would see) with detailed high-resolution panchromatic pictures.

[caption from NASA, etc]
Credit: NASA/Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory/Southwest Research Institute//Roman Tkachenko

Book Review: The Ingenious Mr. Pyke

I’ve just finished reading a biography, The Ingenious Mr. Pyke: Inventor, Fugitive, Spy, by Henry Hemming. It covers a rather fascinating figure from the First and Second World Wars, the Brit Geoffrey Pyke, who might be best described as an idea man.

In the WW I, his contributions consisted of smuggling himself into Germany as an American journalist in the opening days of the war, prior to America’s entry, where his attempts to send dispatches back to his British employer resulted in his incarceration in a prisoner camp that was supposedly inescapable.

So he escaped from it.

The camp, and perhaps his escape from it, damaged his health permanently, making him medically unfit to serve in the military. This didn’t didn’t stop him from his restless quest to solve problems, as he becomes a best-selling author, opens a school founded on revolutionary principles, makes and loses a fortune through investing, and enters into World War II with outré ideas to solve problems ranging from distracting the Germans to building indestructible aircraft carriers – from ice. These ideas get him into a British military command as a senior civilian advisor and consultant, driving some senior military officers up the wall, while others seized on his ideas as manna from heaven.

But, through it all, runs the question of whether he was truly a spy. Letters later found in East Germany archives seemed to indicate he was at least a fellow traveler with the Communists, although temperamentally unsuited for officially joining up. But how this affected his work is speculative.

Perhaps the most valuable portion of this book is the epilogue: How To Think Like A Genius. From questioning all received wisdom to fine tuning problem statements and exploring obviously wrong approaches, and looking for solutions, old or new, everywhere around him, an ambitious young reader might benefit enormously from reading the epilogue and taking it to heart.

But for a fuller treatment of Mr. Pyke’s approach to solving difficult problems, just read the whole thing. Told as a third-person narrative, it was fun!

Disagreement Is Better Than Denial

If you need some reassurance that the United States isn’t melting into a puddle, an NBC News/WSJ poll concerning the impeachment proceedings might provide just a bit:

Forty-eight percent of Americans believe that Trump should be impeached and removed from office, while an equal 48 percent say they disagree. …

Asked to explain their feelings over whether to impeach and remove Trump from office, 25 percent of all respondents (including 55 percent of Republicans) say the president has not done anything wrong.

An additional 22 percent (including 35 percent of Republicans) say that he may have done something wrong but that it doesn’t rise to the level of impeachment.

That 35 percent of Republicans believing Trump did something wrong tells us that at least some Republicans recognize the error of Trump’s ways, and that means there’s something agreement over the obvious facts on the ground. That’s important. That they don’t agree that impeachment and conviction is called for isn’t a matter for condemnation, but for discussion.

It’s when obvious facts are denied out of hand that I despair. But once an admission of the facts is made, then you can ask your favorite Trump cultist (who may not be one if they admit to the facts), What do you mean? How far must a President, regardless of party, stoop before impeachment proceedings are allowable, in your judgment? And once the discussion begins, then you have a chance of persuading the obdurate Republican that allegiance to Party over Country is not permissible, and that spelling out how awful the conduct must be will then permit examination of Trump’s many flaws in comparison. And make them think a little harder about their allegiance.

Word Of The Day

Polygenic:

But many disorders are polygenic – that is, caused by variations in many different genes that each have a and less clear-cut effect. Geneticists attempt to work out the overall impact of thousands of gene variants by sequencing people’s DNA and calculating so-called polygenic risk scores, but there are big questions about how accurate or useful these are. [“Controversial DNA screening technique used for at least one pregnancy,” Michael Le Page, NewScientist (22 November 2019, from print-only version)]

Just How Long Will The Anticipation Last?

I have a certain sympathy for this opinion issued by Senator Lamar Alexander (R-TN) concerning the delay of the delivery of the Articles of Impeachment by Speaker of the House Pelosi (D-CA) to the Senate for trial:

To put it politely, it’s not her job, according to the Constitution, to tell the Senate how to try an impeachment. The Constitution says that the House has the sole power of impeachment. We respect that. And the Constitution also says the Senate has the sole power of how to try an impeachment. [WaPo]

I think it’s technically correct and publicly acceptable, out of context.

So let’s add in the context, which is that of a Republican-controlled Senate in which Senate Majority Leader McConnell (R-KY) has basically said the trial will end in acquittal, and there will be no testimony from witnesses, and that McConnell will coordinate with White House lawyers to ensure that outcome, an exercise in dishonor which surely should leave McConnell ashamed. Given this context, Pelosi has a certain obligation to use any lever she has to assure a fair trial is possible, and since the Constitution makes no requirement as to the timing of the delivery of the articles, she’s more or less free to do what she wants.

So where might this go? At the moment, Speaker Pelosi has suggested she is merely in management mode, selecting Representatives to present the case while waiting for the Senate to go through the inevitable negotiations that will produce the structure of the trial. The latter reason is apparently upsetting some of the Republican Senators.

But what if she has more on her mind? We’re less than a year out on the next election cycles; less than 6 weeks out on the Iowa caucuses. If Speaker Pelosi believes an unresolved impeachment hanging over the head of President Trump and his allies serves the cause of the Democrats at either the Presidential or Congressional election levels, is it possible she’ll delay it for months?

Sure. Possibly as late as – say it with me – October.

This would give the Democrats time to educate the public on the alleged abuses promulgated by President Trump, and highlight the gross improprieties of the Republican Senators who have been so foolish as to comment on the upcoming trial, principally McConnell and Lindsay Graham (R-SC) (it’s necessary to note that many Republican Senators have observed proper behavior by not commenting on the upcoming trial). This pressure might actually serve to divide the Republican Senators and, just barely possibly, achieve a positive result, which would evict Trump from the Oval Office and ban him from ever running again for Federal office. Because his cult is so strong, it wouldn’t silence him – the squealings of unfairness would go on for years – but it’d diminish his plausibility among independents even more.

On the other hand, it also opens up the Democrats for more claims of partisanship, deepening the divide in the country, a division happily fanned by the Russians through divisive email campaigns and subtle social media manipulations, as well as by Fox News. (I commend conservative pundit Jennifer Rubin’s suggestion that Michael Bloomberg should not waste his time and money on a political run, but simply buy Fox News, fire its mendacious political commentators, and turn it into a real news operation.)

Then again, there’s always a chance that President Trump would blow a fuse in the interim.

On balance, I don’t think Pelosi will delay delivery for months, because, while it might appeal to her strategic instincts, it also requires a flare for the dramatic, and I’m not sure she’s that much of a drama queen. Still, it’s a potential maneuver which would hang over the heads of Republican Senators running for reelection, and might even function as a useful hammer for Democrats fighting off Republican rivals, simply by asking them if they would, or would not, vote to convict in the trial.

I expect to see Pelosi to deliver the articles of impeachment to the Senate in the next few weeks, but I stand ready for a longer delay, lots of screaming, and a heck of a dramatic pause.

Belated Movie Reviews

Fascinating as it is, I regret that I lack a friend, or even an acquaintance, of South Korean origin, for after viewing Parasite (2019) I have a lot of questions that need answering, including such big ones as What did I miss here?

The poverty-stricken Kim family, living in the slums in the depths of Seoul, may be lacking in money and even food, but lacking in wit and the grasping of opportunity they are not, so when a chance to tutor a child of a nouveau-rich family leads to another opportunity within the same family, they move on it and capture the job – and then see more jobs within their grasp, if only they are a trifle clever about it.

Once the entire family abruptly finds itself working for a living, a little celebration breaks out when the employing family leaves for a holiday. Only then do they discover that parasites can have … competition. But when torrential rains move in, a family, now abruptly beset by an unexpected challenge, finds their own home has been destroyed in a most distressing fashion, leaving them with a question: what to do next?

Moving from farce to mystery to a disturbing look at the pressures of social conformance, the movie makes each major character count, even the child who cannot quite parse Morse code sufficiently to understand that sometimes parasites can be in distress. But some of the symbolism, rooted in modern South Korean culture, escapes me. I mean, the toilet squirting out the contents of the sanitary sewers was awesome, but does it mean the same thing to me as it might to a South Korean? And are we looking at circular parasitism?

My Arts Editor proclaimed herself fascinated and bewildered as to where the movie was headed at any particular moment, and, technically speaking, I felt it was spot-on – even the captioning was excellent. If you have an interest in genre-crossing movies, you should go see this one.

Recommended.