And Then There’s The Illegal Activities

What does COVID-19 mean for illegal activities? Vanda Felbab-Brown discusses this on Order From Chaos, and finds it depends on the category:

As street life has decreased in Europe, North America, and much of South America, predatory street crime appears to have decreased considerably. There are simply no people on the streets to mug. And with people at home, burglaries and home invasions have become more difficult. …

With more people in the West and Asia at home and bored and access to street prostitution severely curtailed, there is also a chance that online prostitution sites that feature trafficked and enslaved women (as opposed to those who give informed consent to sex work) may see a rise in online trafficking, perhaps stimulating efforts to entrap more women. More time online inevitably means more potential exposure to recruitment by nefarious entities, such as jihadi groups or doomsday cults, portraying COVID-19 as a portend of a forthcoming apocalypse and a justification to purify the land through violence, crime, and fraud.

Understandable, although it didn’t occur to me that enslavement could go up because bored Internet users lacked access to significant others or prostitutes. But then Felbab-Brown surprised me, not so much for suggesting a rise in another class of crime, but recognizing it’s morally, if not legally, a crime:

In 2019, China muscled the World Health Organization (WHO) to include a chapter on traditional Chinese medicine in WHO’s International Classification of Diseases, a highly influential compendium of medical conditions for diagnosis and treatment, influencing also what illnesses and procedures insurance companies pay for. As memories of COVID-19 wane like they did with SARS, and when an effective COVID treatment become available, the powerful traditional Chinese medicine industry will again pressure China and East Asian governments to promote their unproven and often nefarious wares. Before that, some of those desperately ill with COVID-19 and unable to obtain proper medical treatment will be seeking to buy traditional Chinese medicine. Already, to treat COVID-19, the government of China is promoting the use of bear bile, a potion barbarically collected from caged bears or poached ones without a shred of evidence of its curative effects.

It’s the unethical preying on the weak, sad to say, and has happened from time immemorial. Remember that next time you want to tell a friend how ground up rhino horn cured your rheumatiz (it didn’t, as you find out the next week), or how acupuncture is a miracle cure.

But Felbab-Brown’s conclusion, even if she doesn’t use the actual word, is all about evolution in action[1]:

In other illegal economies, such as the illegal drug trade, the COVID-19 disruptions will be even more ephemeral. After temporarily wreaking havoc with some types of crime and enabling others, the coronavirus will leave behind the smartest and most adaptable criminal groups.

This may be turned into a vivid analogy to a drug, ironically played in this scenario by COVID-19, sweeping away the weaker inimical entities, in this case weaker or more brittle criminal gangs, while, as she says, the most adaptable will continue, only stronger and uninhibited by the weaker.

Notice that weaker is a situational adjective. Just as in the medical situation, a gang will have strengths and weaknesses, and it may find itself suppressed by other gangs, or (medically) other cells, that, once they are removed, permit the “stronger” and more difficult to remove entities to flourish and, at least medically speaking, damage or kill the host. This is, at least as I understand it, why cancers that recur after chemo has forced them into remission are no longer sensitive to chemo – the surviving cells that constitute the new cancer are those that are, by definition, not sensitive, and they’re the ones that reproduced after the initial cancer was killed.

For those living in areas that are prone to crime, or near them, this might be something to keep in mind.


1 Another example of Janet Factor’s lovely statement that evolution is substrate-neutral.

Stronger Than Satan’s Temptation!

Well, was he effective?

https://youtu.be/s0IzJaicTi8

No, people are still dying. Or … the news outlets are lying through their teeth. For those readers who are inclined to such a belief, I suggest a visit to a big city hospital, preferably in New York City, and see if it looks like they’re lying.

Maybe all the bodies are just actors. Bring a pin with you and start sticking them.

All snark aside, the real question is whether any worshiper who saw this and believed it decided to leave the faith – or at least Copeland’s congregation – upon discovery that he didn’t have the desired effect. And the answer, of course, is no. That sense of belonging is far more tempting than any real truth, partly because it’s so much easier to belong and nod along with everyone else in the sect than figure out what the truth might be.

Because that’s hard. Just ask any physicist. Pinning down truth, pinning down reality, is damn hard. Much less creatures that don’t appear to exist. It’s easier – and more beneficial – to nod with the crowd, have the post-service lunch, thank the preacher for his performance, agree he’s very effective, so some social networking, and maybe get a job next week through that networking.

Truth? Sometimes, I’m sad to say, it’s not that important.

And, theatrically speaking, I wasn’t all that impressed with Copeland. The pointing of the finger and the furrowing of the brow? Son, the old-time preachers did more than that. Why weren’t you wrestling with the devil himself up there?

At least the other dude, whoever he is, had the grace to look a little embarrassed.

Just For Fun, A Chance To Exhibit Your Hidden Superstition, Ctd

Remember Comet Atlas, and how the superstitious thought comets brought doom upon all who saw them?

I guess we stared at it a little bit too hard:

As it loses coherence.
Source: The Astronomer’s Telegram

Comet ATLAS (C/2019 Y4), what are you doing? New data from astronomers around the world show that the once-promising comet is beginning to fade. For Karl Battams of the Naval Research Lab in Washington DC, it could be a classic case of “I told you so.”“Quoting myself from March 15th,” says Battams, “‘I wouldn’t be surprised to see Comet ATLAS start to fade rapidly and possibly even disintegrate before reaching the sun.’ I very much hope I’m wrong, but Comet Elenin did something similar several years ago, holding lots of promise and then just… fizzling.” …

On April 6th, astronomers Quanzhi Ye of the University of Maryland) and Qicheng Zhang of Caltech reported new images of Comet ATLAS, in which the comet’s core appears to be elongating–“as would be expected from a major disruption of the nucleus,” they wrote in an Astronomical Telegram. …

Recent measurements of the comet’s position also point to trouble. Battams explains: “The comet’s orbit is now being influenced by ‘non-gravitational’ forces. These forces are the result of gases lifting off the comet nucleus and causing the nucleus to move very slightly in the opposite direction–sort of like a jet engine. Most active comets experience this to some degree, but ATLAS’s non-gravitational forces have kicked in very abruptly and are quite strong. This supports a narrative of a small nucleus being pushed very strongly by extreme outgassing, possibly along with fragmentation.” [SpaceWeather.com]

The doom redounded on it, and that was all. So much for any fun for me!

Is Private Justice Just?, Ctd

For some people, like me, “private justice”, which is the use of arbitration clauses to deprive consumers from access to the court system when something goes wrong with a product or service, strikes me as injustice. But for others, no doubt smarter than I, it’s an opportunity to continue class action lawsuits in, I should say, a dispersed manner – using the corporate weapon against the corporation:

Teel Lidow couldn’t quite believe the numbers. Over the past few years, the nation’s largest telecom companies, like Comcast and AT&T, have had a combined 330 million customers. Yet annually an average of just 30 people took the companies to arbitration, the forum where millions of Americans are forced to hash out legal disputes with corporations.

Mr. Lidow, a Silicon Valley entrepreneur with a law degree, figured there had to be more people upset with their cable companies. He was right. Within a few months, Mr. Lidow found more than 1,000 people interested in filing arbitration claims against the industry.

About the same time last year, Travis Lenkner and his law partners at the firm Keller Lenkner had a similar realization. Arbitration clauses bar employees at many companies from joining together to mount class-action lawsuits. But what would happen, the lawyers wondered, if those workers started filing tens of thousands of arbitration claims all at once? Many companies, it turns out, can’t handle the caseload.

Hit with about 2,250 claims in one day last summer, for example, the delivery company DoorDash was “scared to death” by the onslaught, according to internal documents unsealed in February in federal court in California. [The New York Times]

Little weapons are sometimes big weapons that just haven’t been properly evaluated yet. I am simply chortling inside (only inside, so as not to startle my Arts Editor, not to mention the cats) at the innovative spirit of Lidow and Lenkner.

So DoorDash discovered they had to pay their arbitrator up-front for starting the process on all the claims, tried to change arbitrators, got their hand slapped, and, well, I think they’re in mid-process now, and not happy about it.

Gotta love alternative thinking.

Anything For A Vote

And if that means sacrificing your own base, well, what of it? Today, neighboring Wisconsin is holding an election in which the seats of judges, including a seat on the Wisconsin Supreme Court, Presidential primaries, school board seats. This, despite multiple examples of other states delaying elections, the Governor ordering a delay and a lawsuit decided in the favor of the plaintiffs. The “intervening defendants,” the Republican National Committee, appealed to the Supreme Court, and, 5-4, it overturned the District Court. Here’s the dissent of Justice Ginsburg’s concluding paragraph:

The majority of this Court declares that this case presents a “narrow, technical question.” That is wrong. The question here is whether tens of thousands of Wisconsin citizens can vote safely in the midst of a pandemic. Under the District Court’s order, they would be able to do so. Even if they receive their absentee ballot in the days immediately following election day, they could return it. With the majority’s stay in place, that will not be possible. Either they will have to brave the polls, endangering their own and others’ safety. Or they will lose their right to vote, through no fault of their own. That is a matter of utmost importance—to the constitutional rights of Wisconsin’s citizens, the integrity of the State’s election process, and in this most extraordinary time, the health of the Nation.

And quite right. It appears that her dissent stung the majority right wing that agreed with the RNC that voting should occur as ordered, come hell … well, that’s what’s coming:

The Court’s decision on the narrow question before the Court should not be viewed as expressing an opinion on the broader question of whether to hold the election, or whether other reforms or modifications in election procedures in light of COVID–19 are appropriate. That point cannot be stressed enough.

It may be more accurate to say the conservatives were terrified of actually stepping forward and saying lives are more important than voting on time. After all, this is not about denying voting, but merely delaying a deadline for voting until mail-in ballots arrive.

The funny thing is … if the Wisconsin conservatives go trudging off to the polls now, isn’t this going to endanger their lives? And their families? Did the RNC just throw its base under the bus?

Or are they so confident that the conservatives will all vote by mail?

I must say, my sense of the surreal demands that all Wisconsin voters refuse to vote.

Exploring All Solutions

Southern Right Whale.
Source: Hakai Magazine.

Sometimes the solutions to the common tasks of living can be odd. Consider the ingestion and processing of food, from the four stomachs of cows to the baleen of certain species of whale.

And then there’s this shark, thankfully long extinct:

About 310 million years ago some sharks had saws for jaws – and now we know how one of those sharks, called Edestus, fed. The “saw blade” in its lower jaw glided backwards and forwards like the blade on some modern power tools, allowing the shark to cut through soft prey like fish.

We know that Edestus was a very odd shark that grew to the size of a modern great white. It had what look a lot like two saw blades in its mouth – one in the upper and one in the lower jaw. The two blades, which could each be 40 centimetres long but just 3 cm wide, seem to have locked together when the shark closed its mouth, a bit like the blades on a pair of serrated scissors. …

A careful analysis shows that it had a distinctive hinge between the lower jaw and the rest of its skull. This allowed the lower jaw – and its saw blade – to slide back and forth relative to the upper blade, which stayed fixed in place. [Leif Tapanila at Idaho State University and his colleagues] says the lower jaw worked a bit like the blade on a jigsaw power tool. “It pulled backwards during the bite. This raked the upper and lower teeth past the food, slicing and splitting it in half.” [NewScientist]

I regret to say I did not find a picture of the fossil, or an artist’s rendering, that I felt was freely available, so you’ll just have to imagine it for yourself.

And let’s not forget Helicaprion:

Shit Flows Down Hill

Like every plumber will tell you. Professor Tyler Cowen of George Mason University comments on the United States reaction to the Covid-19 outbreak:

“In the United States, as you know, we had a solid two months’ warning and did nothing. And even now, in terms of getting testing and masks set up and the like, there are incredible delays,” he said. “So we might finally overcome those problems. But, you know, with climate change, you need a 20-to-30-year ramping up for it to work.”

Cowen said it’s inexplicable why the federal government, given all the warnings and evidence from China of a spreading pandemic, did not move more rapidly.

“You know, Trump was terrible, but you can’t just pin it on him. It’s far more systemic than that. The NBA [which suspended its season on March 11] really gets so much credit. I would put the NBA in charge of fighting climate change at this point.” [WaPo]

But for those who’ve watched Trump’s moves from Day 1, this shouldn’t be a surprise. Trump has multiple pathways of communication into the bureaucracy: personal behavior modeling, firing personnel who act appropriately, power to nominate Cabinet positions and the influence to get them approved, power to nominate sub-Cabinet positions etc, option to leave important positions empty, use of “acting” personnel to head important agencies.

All of these communicate confusion and fear to the bureaucracy, and that’s why we see the supposedly all-powerful “deep state” having to be defended by our vastly incompetent President for its failures. If it was truly a Deep State, it would have pushed Trump aside and dealt with the matter as the national security threat that it is; instead, Trump remains the incoherent head of the worst Administration in modern memory.

So why is Cowen confused? Beats me. It seems obvious to me that the failures we’re seeing in our best institutions are because they have not received the maintenance that such institutions require.

Theme Of The Administration

Which is Amateurs Over All[1]! And here’s our latest banner-waver, courtesy CNN:

White House trade adviser Peter Navarro on Monday said he was qualified to engage and disagree with Dr. Anthony Fauci on the use of an anti-malarial drug as a coronavirus treatment — which is not yet proven as effective — saying, “I’m a social scientist.”

“Doctors disagree about things all the time. My qualifications in terms of looking at the science is that I’m a social scientist,” he told CNN’s John Berman on “New Day.” “I have a Ph.D. And I understand how to read statistical studies, whether it’s in medicine, the law, economics or whatever.”

Navarro’s remarks follow reports that he clashed with officials in the Situation Room over the weekend about the unproven efficacy of hydroxychloroquine in treating coronavirus. While the task force was discussing the latest on the anti-malaria drug, an exasperated Navarro lashed out at Fauci, the nation’s top infectious disease expert, who has urged caution around the drug, a person familiar with the meeting told CNN.

Who knows, maybe hydroxychloroquine will turn out to be our savior. But Navarro’s attitude is telling. It’s the classic I know more than this clown and he spews out his credentials, which conveniently do not include any knowledge specific to the epidemiology field.

It reminds me of the VP of Marketing that was convinced that he could sell brooms just as easily as he could software. It’s a disease of ego. Navarro has his Ph.D. and he’s ready to ride it right over the cliff.

Let’s hope he’s right, since we know how to manufacture hydroxychloroquine and all about its side effects. But I won’t be investing in the manufacturer of it, whatever company that may be. So far, the evidence presented by the Administration is flimsy at best.


1 Of course, the top-rated theme is The Truth Doesn’t Matter!, but for the purposes of this post we’ll ignore that inconvenient little truth.

Word Of The Day

Metier:

noun

  1. a field of work; occupation, trade, or profession.
  2. a field of work or other activity in which one has special ability or training; forte. [Dictionary.com]

Noted in “Jim Al-Khalili’s The World According to Physics is a thrilling ride,” Richard Web, NewScientist (28 March 2020, paywall):

Al-Khalili’s easy turn of phrase and feel for metaphor give us a sense of fundamental physics as a box of delights and woes. His true metier is quantum physics, where he is admirably lucid and even-handed in dealing with the various interpretations that seek to explain its picture of a “fuzzy” reality so at odds with our lived experience.

Strategy Comparisons

Stephanie Jolly has drawn some attention from the media for her comparisons of Kentucky, where she is based, and Tennessee with regards to the activity of the virus causing Covid-19. The states are somewhat similar in composition, but the strategies chosen by the State governments have been very different – Kentucky went with early vigilance and shutdowns, while Tennessee was more lax in its approach. She just published her latest results in the form of these two graphs:

So far, it looks like the Kentucky approach is more effective. However, the problems of incomplete and bad data may emphasize the performance gap. Or, for that matter, soften it. Come to your own conclusions.

Just The Wrong Thing To Think

From WaPo regarding the knowledge that there’s an undercount with regard to deaths from Covid-19:

Postmortem testing by medical examiners varies widely across the country, and some officials say testing the dead is a misuse of scarce resources that could be used on the living.

Penny-wise, pound-foolish! In the Age of Information, it’s a bit astounding to me that someone can actually say such a thing and think they’re being wise, or at least practical. The long-term consequences of flawed knowledge, however, may cost far more lives down the line than the few up front from expending those tests: death rates, correlations with underlying conditions, and other facts can potentially be derived from good knowledge.

If these officials really want to be useful, get behind the effort to make more tests available. Do whatever it takes, tell the President to stop being an idiot, figure out how to get more manufacturers going, qualify more labs, and stop protecting your precious career. This is the day the public official signs up for, when he or she stands up, leads the troops out of the trenches, and charges the enemy with no regard for themselves.

Do your damn jobs.

And kudos to Wyoming Laramie County Coroner Rebecca Reid:

But in Wyoming — the only state that had not reported a covid-19 death as of Saturday — Laramie County Coroner Rebecca Reid said she is ready to test anyone with symptoms who dies at home.

“We need an accurate cause of death to give the family some closure and make sure they have been safe,” she said. “It’s also very important that the public knows the truth.”

She knows.

Belated Movie Reviews

It was an asteroid made of strawberry jam, and he just threw himself in! But then, he did grow up on a farm.

Dubious science, effects so bad that sometimes I laughed, a mediocre plot with a useless romantic subplot, bad costumes, alien blood made of strawberry jam contained in old vacuum hoses, oh do I really need to go on?

If you’re going to watch War Between The Planets (1966), pray do not make your spouse, or your dog, watch it with you, for that wonderful person, or dog, may have loved you before, but they will not love you after.

Worst of all, it appears to be part of a series!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z7U4R3WZy4E

Just Because …

… you have a weak telescope, a smartphone as your astro-camera, and your hands are not entirely steady, doesn’t mean you can’t take a few pics of the moon.

This one’s not too bad, either.

Well, actually, it’s such a mess that I can actually see some dread, blue planet behind it, like it’s a moon of Neptune, the blue gas giant.

Nothing like making a liability into an advantage!

Forward To The Past

NewScientist (28 March 2020) reports on the latest findings concerning microplastics, about which we know little, including their effects on our health:

Tiny pieces of plastic that pollute the environment can be produced by simply opening a plastic bottle or tearing a food wrapper. …

[Cheng Fang at the University of Newcastle, Australia] and his colleagues tested whether everyday activities could release microplastics. They opened common plastic items such as bags, bottles and packaging film by twisting the bottle cap or tearing the bag, for example, or by cutting them with scissors or a knife, which deforms and fractures the plastic.

The team used a scale that is sensitive to weights as low as one nanogram to collect and measure the microplastics that landed on its surface. Between about 10 and 30 nanograms of microplastic were released from opening the plastic items, which amounts to between 14,000 and 75,000 individual microplastic particles. But the team says that the true amount released is probably even higher, because many microplastics are statically charged and remain in the air.

Not a good finding at all. Or very good. My first inclination is to suggest we return to glass, returnable bottles with aluminum twist caps. But I don’t know how much impact glass bottles would have on natural resources. I know sand for silicon is becoming a little scarce. How about bottles?

Missed Opportunities

Someone forgot to inform 3M CEO Michael Roman that politeness is a sign of weakness. This is his reaction after President Trump accused 3M of unspecified maleficence in the manufacture and delivery of N95 facemasks and used his latest club, the Defense Production Act, to tell 3M what to do:

“The narrative we aren’t doing everything we can as a company is just not true,” he said in an interview with CNBC, noting that 3M has doubled its global production of N95 masks since coronavirus hit the headlines in January. [WaPo]

As CEO of one of the largest and most successful companies in American history, he should have reprimanded Trump for lying and announced that Trump is irrelevant and a terrible leader in the face of a potentially devastating pandemic.

When dealing with bullies, it’s best to bluff and suggest the bully’s irrelevant and incompetent. Maybe they’ll open their mouth and confirm it. Heck, maybe they’ll do something actionable.

Russia Vs The West Watch

On Lawfare, Professor Gary Corn observes Russia’s reaction to the COVID-19 outbreak as it relates to national adversaries:

As the coronavirus pandemic spreads, the Kremlin seems to be observing the old adage that one should never let a good crisis go to waste. According to several news outlets, the European External Action Service (EEAS), an arm of the European Union, has documented a significant Russian disinformation campaign regarding the novel coronavirus, which causes the respiratory disease COVID-19. The EEAS report asserts that “[t]he overarching aim of Kremlin disinformation is to aggravate the public health crisis in Western countries, specifically by undermining public trust in national healthcare systems—thus preventing an effective response to the outbreak[.]” And now, the New York Times writes that—in classic copy-cat fashion—China and Iran are following suit.

Of course Russia denies the claims. But the reports are consistent with Russia’s broader and well-documented efforts to sow division in the West and undermine democratic institutions—with one major difference. This time, the Kremlin’s irresponsible actions are directly putting lives in danger. This new and potentially deadly twist on the disinformation problem highlights a lacuna in the international legal order and the need for states to take more affirmative steps to better regulate and counter covert deception campaigns, especially those that put lives at risk.

But it’s not a surprising new twist, really. Disinformation continues to emphasize distrust in the government, which is the end result of the Trump Administration in any case.

BTW, I regard statistics coming out of Russia with a lot of doubt, but here’s the latest from Johns Hopkins COVID-19 dashboard:

4700+ infections, 43 deaths. Their population is generally less dense than ours or China, but they still seem awfully low.

When You Can’t Stand Powerlessness

From The Sun (UK):

CONSPIRACY nuts are reportedly setting phone masts alight and targeting engineers after a bizarre claim 5G “radiation” caused the deadly coronavirus spread.

The theory originated last month after a video filmed at a US health conference claimed Africa was not as affected by the disease because it is “not a 5G region”.

The myth was quickly debunked after the World Health Organisation confirmed there were thousands of Covid-19 cases in Africa.

The government has also confirmed there is “no evidence to suggest that 5G has anything to do with Covid-19”.

Celebs have been slammed for sharing the conspiracy theory, including Jason Gardiner and Callum Best, who posted similar claims that 5G can impact the immune system.

But the claims have still been doing the rounds on WhatsApp via a lengthy voice note – with phone masts now being set alight in the UK.

My goodness. Well, I suppose when there’s not much you can actually do, latching onto a vague rumor that gives you something to do can be inordinately attractive to some people. I sure hope none of these burning masts fall on these folks, or the first responders required to investigate and remediate.

But these folks need better self-discipline. I read a couple of comments on the article and they were your typical hysteria-inducement types:

top scientists have stated 5g radiation is extremely damaging to life forms. It poisons the body, kills birds and insects and causes cancers and flu like symptoms in humans. Wise up people. Start looking into this!!! They are not crazy to burn down these towers. Join the 5g Facebook page and read the facts!

First thing that comes to mind – who are these top scientists of which you speak? Post links to what they say.

It does come to mind that this may be some national adversary to the UK causing this trouble, too. Spread a couple of rumors and watch the dumb-Brits self-destruct, it’s so much fun!

Assholes.

Better Words Than Mine

In the second part of Andrew Sullivan’s weekly tri-partite diary entry, he puts together one of those pity put-downs of the American Evangelist movement that you just have to admire:

The evolution of the Christianist right has been quite something these past few years. In this century, the Evangelical right has embraced the cult of prosperity, the efficacy of torture, and the denial of health care to the poor. They upped the ante in 2016, of course, by embracing a pagan worshipper of Mammon, with a sideline in philandery, cruelty, gluttony, pride, deceit, envy, insatiable greed, and the foulest abuse of women. How could they top that? Well, they’re trying.

And that would be … a cult of death. He cites R. R. Reno, whose article (my reaction here) in First Things was equal parts historical ignorance and lamentations that religious groups are being told not to get together, while failing to note that there isn’t the faintest hint of actual arbitrary repressive element to these bans on gatherings, religious or otherwise.

And then Sullivan provides yet another real-life example of why, despite the arbitrary and, in my view, fallacious basis for any religion, I cannot subscribe to the loathing exhibited by militant atheists:

I’m also reminded of one of the most extraordinary moments in the history of the Black Death. In a northern English town called Eyam, in 1666, the local tailor received a batch of cloth from London that turned out to be infected by fleas carrying the disease. Suddenly, people started dropping dead. Two Christian pastors then made an extraordinary decision: They would quarantine the entire town, forbidding anyone from leaving — so that the plague would spare their neighbors and county. They kept up that quarantine, even as families were wiped out, and never left, losing more than half of their residents, a higher proportion than even London. But the rest of the region was spared thousands of deaths.

Those people, as devout Christians, were indeed not afraid of death. But they faced it because they wanted others to live. I have to say I find their faith a little more impressive than that of the today’s American Evangelicals.

It’s quite the takedown of Reno and, by implication, the screwy ravings of Texas Lt. Governor Patrick. Not to mention a full condemnation of the American Evangelical movement, at least those who’ve pledged their souls to Trump.

Word Of The Day

Sesquipedalian:

ADJECTIVE

  1. tending to use very long words
  2. (of words or expressions) long and ponderous; polysyllabic

NOUN

  1. a polysyllabic word

[Collins Dictionary]

Noted in the book Death by Black Hole: And Other Cosmic Quandaries, Neil deGrasse Tyson. I’ll omit typing in the relevant paragraph.

I’m Sure It Just Slipped Their Mind

From the US Government Accountability Office’s report 2019 LOBBYING DISCLOSURE Observations on Lobbyists’ Compliance with Disclosure Requirements:

What GAO Found

For the 2019 reporting period, most lobbyists provided documentation for key elements of their disclosure reports to demonstrate compliance with the Lobbying Disclosure Act of 1995, as amended (LDA). For lobbying disclosure (LD-2) reports and political contribution (LD-203) reports filed during the third and fourth quarters of 2018 and the first and second quarters of 2019, GAO estimates that

  • 90 percent of lobbyists who filed new registrations also filed LD-2 reports as required for the quarter in which they first registered (the figure below describes the filing process and enforcement);
  • 95 percent of all lobbyists who filed could provide documentation for lobbying income and expenses;
  • 20 percent of all LD-2 reports may not have properly disclosed one or more previously held covered positions as required; and
  • 45 percent of LD-203 reports were missing reportable contributions, which was a statistically significant increase compared to prior years.

Except as noted above, these findings are generally consistent with GAO’s findings since 2010. Under a new law, lobbyists are required to report certain criminal convictions. GAO found that, of the 161 lobbyists it successfully identified, no lobbyist had failed to report a conviction.

If you wondered about management of lobbyist ethics, this might be the place to start, although I’m not sure how to contextualize some of the findings:

The U.S. Attorney’s Office for the District of Columbia (USAO) continued its efforts to resolve noncompliance through filing reports or terminating registrations, as well as imposing civil and criminal penalties. USAO received 4,220 referrals from both the Secretary of the Senate and the Clerk of the House for failure to comply with reporting requirements cumulatively for years 2009 through 2019. Of the 4,220 referrals, about 41 percent are now compliant and about 59 percent are pending further action.

Perhaps a time series, revealing trends? Or are lobbyist activities such that a violation has a non-linear effect on the system? I’m sure government watchdog groups have a better handle on this than I.

And the how:

To determine the extent to which lobbyists can demonstrate compliance, we examined a stratified random sample of 98 quarterly lobbying disclosure (LD-2) reports with income and expenses of $5,000 or more filed during the third and fourth quarters of calendar year 2018 and the first and second quarters of calendar year 2019. We selected the randomly sampled reports from the publicly downloadable database maintained by the Clerk of the House of Representatives (Clerk of the House). This methodology allows us to generalize some elements to the population of LD-2 reports. We then surveyed and interviewed each lobbyist or lobbying firm in our sample. Our questionnaire asked lobbyists about their income and expenses and accompanying supporting documentation. In our follow-up interviews, we asked them to provide written documentation for key elements of their LD-2 reports.

This documentation included the amount of income reported for lobbying activities, the amount of expenses reported, the houses of Congress or federal agencies lobbied, lobbying issue areas, and the names of lobbyists listed in the report. We reviewed whether lobbyists listed on the LD-2 reports properly disclosed (1) prior covered official positions and (2) certain criminal convictions at the state or federal level as required by the Justice Against Corruption on K Street Act of 2018. We also reviewed whether the lobbyists filed the semiannual report of federal political contributions.

A bit mind-numbing, unless you’re a statistician, perhaps employed by a law firm. Then it’s red meat.

Twisted Morning Ravings

As I made breakfast, I filled my glass with the last of the 2% milk, glance at the wife, shook the empty container, and said, “This is OK, yes?

“Oh, yes, now we can go back to the whole milk!”

Stare at the 2% container. Pause. “Oh, that’s right. We cut this half and half with bourbon, didn’t we? Sure made the Raisin Bran tasty.”

A gagging sound was recorded by the FBI recorders at this time.

Belated Movie Reviews

Harold Crick, like a lot of people, has his work in the back of his brain, and as a tax auditor for the IRS, it involves counting and numbers. Which is fine.

Except someone is commenting on it. In a slightly snide tone.

In his mind.

And Harold doesn’t like it.

But Harold has a bigger problem: the voice is that of his author, Karen Eiffel, who is narrating his life, and she tip-taps his ups and downs on her old electric typewriter, constructing a masterpiece of literature – although she doesn’t know it. And there’s something else she doesn’t know, or cannot figure out.

How Harold should die.

Dude. I’m a professor of literature. That means I have to shower in public facilities.

Stranger Than Fiction (2006) plays with the barrier between an author and her characters, asking questions concerning art, primarily the priority art takes in the ladder of importance. As Harold tries to understand what’s happening to him, going from therapist to auditee to therapist to, finally, a literature professor, he asks himself Why me? And that leads to questions about the people he audits, and how he can, perhaps, help them.

And how treating them better brings positive results to his own life.

But an offhand bit of literary foreshadowing clues Harold in to the fact that his story is coming to a sudden end sometime soon, and this lends urgency – as if he needed more – to discover if she really exists. When he finds that Eiffel lives in his own city, things become a bit more interesting, as this is one thing she hadn’t expected.

And brings the question of the purity of art vs the value of a life into salience.

This story is treated somewhat lightly, like, say Groundhog Day (1993), and perhaps this is why the final behaviors of Harold, while highlighting the masterpiece of literature which is Eiffel’s work, also might be seen as excusing them from suffering the consequences. But, slightly more grating, the entire ending is plopped in the audience’s lap. To my mind, most stories require an ending, a final commentary on the consequences of the actions of the characters. But some stories ask questions for which there may not be a final answer. Karen Eiffel had thought she was merely writing a story, a serious story, yes, a story that drove her to smoke and stand on the roofs of tall buildings, contemplating long falls, but just a story. Then Harold, who she knows intimately as a good and improving man, knocks at her door.

And she finds she holds the power of life and death over him. The storytellers ask, What should Eiffel do?

But that’s the wrong question. Slyly different is this question: What would you do?

And by providing an answer to the first question, the storytellers lose the opportunity to open a conversation with their audience.

What would you do?