The Next Bubble, Ctd

While China has banned decentralized cryptocurrencies, other countries are exhibiting a more positive interest, as NewScientist (18 September 2021) reports:

El Salvador has officially adopted bitcoin as legal tender. Draft legislation may soon lead Panama down the same path, while China, the US and the UK are investigating launching their own cryptocurrencies. Here’s what you need to know.

Why are countries adopting bitcoin?

President Nayib Bukele hopes bitcoin will alleviate El Salvador’s prickliest economic problems: citizens sending money home from abroad account for up to a fifth of the country’s GDP, but they have to pay high transaction costs, and 70 per cent of people have no bank account. Bitcoin enables quick, cheap payments across borders, and doesn’t require banks.

Cryptocurrency is a spawn of the digital age, which makes it a challenge to use by those not connected to the Internet:

While many in El Salvador were posting their successful bitcoin purchases on social media, others were marching in the street in protest.

And the markets are spooked. The Financial Times reports that the yield on long-term Salvadoran bonds rose from 8.5 per cent in June prior to the bitcoin announcement to 11 per cent, meaning confidence in the state’s finances has dropped,

And bitcoin’s volatility makes it a dubious choice over the long term, if that volatility continues, as the article notes. But I don’t doubt there will be continued experimentation, as the advantages, imagined or real, can be alluring. Get ready for a new acronym: CBDC

But we are likely to see central banks around the world launching their own digital currencies, combining benefits of cryptocurrencies and traditional money. Financial consulting firm PwC published a report earlier this year on these so-called Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs). The report claimed that 60 governments are currently working on one, and that 88 per cent are basing them on blockchains, the technology behind bitcoin, though not all CBDCs will be cryptocurrencies.

CBDC obviates two features of bitcoin, which is lack of central bank control and, therefore, algorithmic control of the amount of legal tender. While these features are advertised as positives, they strike me as potential negatives – and, by erasing them, we may see CBDCs succeed.

Word Of The Day

Oneiric:

of, relating to, or suggestive of dreams [Merriam-Webster]

Noted in “Karmalink review: An intriguing mix of Buddhism and nanotech,” Davide Abbatescianni, NewScientist (18 September 2021):

To record Leng Heng’s dreams and discover the secrets of his past lives, Srey Leak steals Leng Heng’s sister’s AUGR (short for “augmented reality”), a sort of forehead microchip that works through the injection of special “nanobugs”. During his oneiric explorations, Leng Heng meets Vattanak Sovann (Sahajak Boonthanakit), a neuroscientist and the inventor of the Connectome, a mysterious device containing “a digital replica of one’s consciousness” that can open “a path to enlightenment” through neural connections with the user’s past lives.

Typo Of The Day

From Steve Benen on Maddowblog:

* The end of an error: “Pat Robertson, who turned a tiny Virginia television station into a global religious broadcasting network, is stepping down after a half-century running the ‘700 Club’ on daily TV, the Christian Broadcasting Network announced on Friday. Robertson, 91, said in a statement that he hosted the network’s flagship program for the last time on Friday, and that his son Gordon Peterson will take over the weekday show starting on Monday.”

Oh, sure, I could argue he got it right … but what fun would that be?

Word Of The Day

Trompe-l’œil:

Trompe-l’œil (/trɒmpˈlɔɪ/ tromp LOYFrench: [tʁɔ̃p lœj]French for ‘deceive the eye’) is an art technique that uses realistic imagery to create the optical illusion that the depicted objects exist in three dimensions. Forced perspective is a comparable illusion in architecture. [Wikipedia]

Noted in “How did this teenager’s drawing of his knee wind up in a Jasper Johns painting at the Whitney?” Geoff Edgers, WaPo:

On May 25, [17 year old student Jéan-Marc] Togodgue, [Rita] Delgado and [Jeff] Ruskin took [artist Jasper Johns] up on that offer and made the short drive down Route 41 to the artist’s nearly 170-acre estate. They were met by Johns, assistant Maureen Pskowski and Conley Rollins, a former Goldman Sachs asset manager who now owns an inn and often serves as an unofficial representative of the artist. Togodgue stared at “Slice” and his drawing, which appeared to be taped to the canvas. Then he looked closer. It was a perfectly executed trompe l’œil; the tape was actually paint. Johns had also reproduced the image exactly, right down to the Jéan-Marc signature, a creation as distinctive as a graffiti artist’s tag.

That’s Not Quite Accurate

During this legislative foofooraw (or however that’s spelled) over the debt ceiling, I’ve been watching the right trying to resurrect the meme of the free-spending (once known as “tax and spend,” which I have since tried to explain is a good thing) Democrats, to be presumably followed by the laughable assertion that the Republicans are financially circumspect.

Yes, for those of paying attention over the last 25 years, this is a moment to pause and laugh out loud.

So here’s Erick Erickson joining the push:

Reconciliation will eventually happen. Democrats have to raise the debt ceiling to pay for all their spending.

Looking at it closely, it’s clear that this is wrong on a couple of levels.

  1. Raising the debt ceiling ultimately pays for nothing. The proper way to think about this is that it transfers the right to receive funds from the immediate supplier of a service, such as a road construction company, to a lender, such as an investor in Treasury Bills, by using funds provided by the lender to pay the supplier. Nothing is paid in terms of the government disbursing tax money to recipients. Only a promise to pay has been extended to an entity that can afford to not be paid in exchange for an interest rate on the lent money.
  2. The fact that the debt ceiling needs to be raised isn’t the exclusively the “fault” of either party. Keep in mind this is not a ceiling on annual deficits, but on the cumulative debt. Each party, and sometimes both (“bipartisan”) has taken action, mostly through legislation, to spend money on providing services and direct payments, ranging from Defense to Welfare, and those actions, when not paid for by raising taxes, shifting funding, raising fees, or abolishing other services, must then be “paid for” by borrowing money and paying suppliers or recipients using the borrowed funds. See 1.
  3. Source: St. Louis Fed.

    So when Erickson derisively says “pay for all their spending,” it’s not entirely honest. Let’s take a single example out of his hide. The Tax Reform Bill of 2017, despite some hysterical (or hysterically funny) claims that it’s a historic achievement and that it worked, it did not work, as we can see on the right. Annual deficits are growing at an appalling rate, because the Republicans refused to pay for their corporate tax cuts in any way, believing with starry eyes that their political religious tenet of the Laffer Curve would replace the funds lost through tax cuts with funds generated by new economic activity enabled by the tax cuts. As both Democrats and third-party economists predicted, It Didn’t Happen. That gap in funds resulted in the Federal debt jumping upwards, with no end in sight, as the annual deficits accrued into the debt. Worse yet, when Democrats proposed raising taxes that had been dropped – you know, the responsible action – the Republicans in the Senate pretended to have a stroke and drop right there on the floor. Even when your Signature Legislation is an Out and Out Failure, you can’t let it be rolled back. Even fourth-rate politicians insist on being proud of their work, especially when it’s a failure.

  4. That all translates to Republicans have contributed substantially, maybe even more than Democrats, to this mess, and they refuse to clean it up by a bipartisan effort to raise taxes.
  5. The errancy of the word “fault” in this context deserves its own rant, from which I’ll desist at the present time.

But because Erickson will benefit by misleading his audience – by making them feel better for being conservatives, rather than miserably incompetent at governance – he walks down that road to his own personal Hell.

And it’s really too bad. I rather liked this point:

Now the progressives will kill the bipartisan infrastructure plan, which included some of what they wanted, because it is not enough. They will take no wins unless they can have all the wins. Zealots always prefer to live in hell if they can’t get Heaven exactly as they want it.

Erickson might not like the idea that McConnell, et al, are exactly the same as the progressives he’s criticizing – but it’s true. The current extremist Senator, which includes McConnell and most of the Senate GOP, does not and can not compromise, because that would violate the sacred requirements of being a Godly Senator. It would imply that they can be wrong, that, just maybe, God isn’t on their side.

And that’s just too appalling for the Republicans and, indeed, any zealot. But Erickson rather wrecks this good point by being misleading in other points, and is thus difficult to take seriously.

And if you’re puzzling over why the Democrats claim this is the Republicans’ fault, this is why. And it’s by and large accurate.

Stop Wrecking Our Model Of Reality, Ctd

Continuing coverage on the battle of the Models of Reality, Brainwrap on Daily Kos has some data presentations that don’t help the alternative model of reality:

It’s not difficult to see that living in counties that didn’t vote for the former President is a lot safer than living in Trump-preferring counties. The ratio of highest to lowest death rate is roughly 5.5, which is not small.

But is it large enough to get the attention of the alternative model of reality crowd?

That’ll depend on their location. Those who live in the blue counties may not notice the difference in death rates, unless they have extensive contacts with red counties. Red county inhabitants may notice extra deaths occurring, but, depending on their “faith” in their model of reality, they may or may not be shaken out of their complacency.

And I don’t speak only of strength of faith; the quality of what they believe about their model may leave it an unshakable edifice. If they think this is just God bringing the faithful home, well, that’s that. Death cults are notoriously difficult to discourage.

But for those who are not in a death cult, it all depends on their exposure to tragedy. If they can visit the local hospital and realize it’s tremendously overworked, then they may realize their model of reality is inferior to the dominant mode.

But will they be rational about it? It’s easier to shout Lies! than to admit a mistake. Right up until you’re the one in the overcrowded ICU, hoping to breath, hoping to survive.

Preventing Keith Laumer’s Bolo, Ctd

This quiet thread may resurge with this NewScientist (18 September 2021, paywall) report of A US military robot ship has fired a large missile for the first time:

The US Department of Defense has released footage of an uncrewed ship firing a large missile, in a demonstration of its Ghost Fleet Overlord programme, an initiative to develop robot vessels that can operate alongside crewed warships.

Previous Ghost Fleet operations have focused on endurance missions without human assistance, including the first uncrewed transit of the Panama Canal, but the firing is the first indication that the vessels will be armed.

The SM-6 weapon used in the demonstration is a 1500-kilogram missile travelling at Mach 3.5 with a range of over 240 kilometres, fired from a modular launcher on the ship, the USV Ranger. Although the missile was launched without a human on board, US policy requires that the target selection and order to fire would be controlled by a person. The demonstration isn’t the first launch of a missile from a robot boat, but the SM-6 is about 100 times larger than the missile used in an Israeli test in 2017.

Here’s that video:

An analyst suggests a possible weakness:

[Sidharth Kaushal of Royal United Services Institute] notes that, given current limitations of sensors and artificial intelligence, the new vessels will work with rather than replace crewed vessels, but he says there could be a greater risk of them being attacked in peacetime.

“They may become targets for sub-threshold aggression, given that damaging or destroying them involves no loss of life,” says Kaushal. He points to a 2016 incident in which China seized a small US unmanned underwater research craft.

More provocations – are they more dangerous, or are they a relatively safe way for the Big Powers to poke at each other and evaluate responses? The Cold War was notorious for such tactics, but with live people in the planes and ships; if lives are not at risk, this may be a good thing.

Maybe.

Call It A PSA

In case you were looking at a picture of a face and wondering if it’s a deepfake, the tools for creating deepfakes still have their weaknesses. Here’s one:

Creating a fake persona online with a computer-generated face is easier than ever before, but there is a simple way to catch these phony pictures – look at the eyes. The inability of artificial intelligence to draw circular pupils gives away whether or not a face comes from a real photograph.

Generative adversarial networks (GANs) – a type of AI that can generate images from a simple prompt – can produce realistic-looking faces. Because they are made through a process of continual changes, they are less likely to be caught out as fake through simple checks like reverse image searches, which identify the reuse of existing people’s images on fake profiles.

But they do have a tell. The pupils of GAN-generated faces aren’t perfectly round or elliptical, unlike real ones. Real pupils are also symmetrical to one another. Computer-created pupils often have bumpy edges, or they are asymmetrical. [NewScientist (18 September 2021, paywall)]

Somebody will find a way to fix that, probably by upgrading the critiquing program to detect the eye problem and downgrade its results based on it. If I understand GANs properly.

The Toxic Conservative Email Stream

My marathon of deconstructing the toxic message’s pictures continues with this:

Taken out of context, sure. But in the context of the mail it was sent in, as well as the incessant, unsupported claims of a former President who cannot believe he lost his reelection bid?

Not so much.

This is a classic example of how the Big Lie works: the perpetrator invokes a negative emotion in the target audience, and then, while the audience is wallowing in this emotional reaction, slides the Big Lie out and into the target’s consciousness. The audience is receptive: angry, due to the implicit reference to the election lost by the former President, yet superior, as it’s been invited to admire and share in the analogy of murder to election fraud. And while all this emotion is building up, the Big Lie is hinted at – election fraud. The former President has repeatedly claimed it. Various Republican officials have repeated it. Hell, just today Rep Gosar (R-AZ) repeated the lie in the form of the Maricopa County audit (or “fraudit”, as observers dubbed it) had found evidence of massive fraud. Meanwhile, those who found the time to read the report discovered it found a few more votes for Biden, and a few less for Trump. (Personally, I give no credence to this audit.)

This leads into some simple facts:

  • In our legal system, there is an opportunity for the losers of an election to contest the results. Credible evidence must be brought, however; shrieking that a loss is unacceptable, that the election was stolen!, without credible evidence, is the tactics of a five year old, not that of an adult.
  • The former President took advantage of that opportunity and filed more than sixty lawsuits. Not all alleged electoral fraud, but all those that did were rejected by judges – including Trump-appointed judges – and some used harsh language in their rejection. Indeed, all but one suit complaining about the distance observers must keep from vote counters were rejected.
  • Some of the lawyers Trump used are now being punished for abuse of the legal system. This is an unusual step, and while some might think they can justify an accusation of autocracy on the part of the Biden Administration, the truth of the matter is that Trump-appointed judges rejected the suits, just as did judges appointed by other Presidents, as well as state level judges in conservative States. Taken as a coherent picture, the accusations of tyranny lose plausibility, while judgments accepting the idea that the meritless suits filed by Trump and his proxies was an abuse of the legal system gain in acceptability.

All that said, recipients of this email should be stirred up, should be angry.

They should be angry at those who abuse their faith in their fellow man. This was a critical part of an attempt to manipulate them, and they’re justified in being angry. But not at their fellow Americans, the Democrats, but at whoever wrote this mail, be it a fellow traveler or a national adversary.

They’re the enemy.

Earl Landgrebe Award Nominee

In the wake of the Arizona “fraudit” coming up empty for the former President, he ignored reality – that the final report indicated he had lost Maricopa County – and, without shame, falsely proclaimed his vindication.

And following in his footsteps is Rep Paul Gosar (R-AZ):

“It was a good start because we now know that fraud was there. Yeah, they made their case very well. The thing about it is that they weren’t given the tools to make a full disclosure,” Arizona GOP Representative Paul Gosar, a close ally of Trump, told reporters from the Undercurrent in Phoenix Friday afternoon, shortly after the audit was released to the Arizona Senate.

“My suggestion is that we actually have some hearings and look over this batch and set a new election for Biden and Trump before the end of the year,” he added.

He comes across as Trump’s little wannabe lapdog, doesn’t he? Full fantasy and all.

What he doesn’t seem to realize is that Trump would lose by a good five million more votes if we held this illicit election that he proposes.

Stop Wrecking Our Model Of Reality

Research and development of potential Covid-19 treatments continue apace:

At least three promising antivirals for covid are being tested in clinical trials, with results expected as soon as late fall or winter, said Carl Dieffenbach, director of the Division of AIDS at the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, who is overseeing antiviral development.

“I think that we will have answers as to what these pills are capable of within the next several months,” Dieffenbach said.

The top contender is a medication from Merck & Co. and Ridgeback Biotherapeutics called molnupiravir, Dieffenbach said. This is the product being tested in the Kellys’ Seattle trial. Two others include a candidate from Pfizer, known as PF-07321332, and AT-527, an antiviral produced by Roche and Atea Pharmaceuticals. [CNN/health]

In view of my observations in this post, I suppose this reaction from possible study volunteer candidates is to be expected:

Participants must be unvaccinated and enrolled in the trial within five days of a positive covid test. Any given day, interns make 100 calls to newly covid-positive people in the Seattle area — and most say no.

“Just generally speaking, there’s a lot of mistrust about the scientific process,” Duke said. “And some of the people are saying kind of nasty things to the interns.”

The dominant model of reality must be resisted, or their model of reality – where testimonials and endorsements from authority figures reign supreme, rather than that bothersome scientific method – is discredited.

That might even discredit God.

Word Of The Day

Ghosting coasting:

Ghosting coasting is the new term describing the scenario where workers show up for a few days and then suddenly stop working for no apparent reason. Unfortunately, this type of behavior is becoming too familiar for small business owners and is also becoming a significant concern in the international labor market. This trend affecting many service-oriented workplaces has become a common problem for restaurateurs – to the point that it has caused many to restrict hours, have daily closures, or even shut their doors for good. [TotesNewsWorthy]

How this fits into the business world is also covered. Noted in “Employers say ‘ghosting coasting’ is a growing problem, but workers have their reasons for quietly walking away from a job,” Dominick Reuter, Business Insider:

“Retention continued to be a growing problem for firms,” the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta said in its September Beige Book entry. “Restauranteurs noted concerns over ‘ghosting coasting,’ where a new hire works for a few days and moves on to the next restaurant without notice before they are let go due to lack of skills.”

The practice itself is not new, but it does appear to be more widespread than ever as job openings outpace job seekers, which allows workers to reclaim a measure of the power in a situation that has favored employers for decades.

Recruiters in several industries say they’ve never seen anything like it.

They continue:

Meanwhile, workers pushed back against the Fed’s characterization that workers who ghost were somehow unqualified for the job, saying that misleading job descriptions, low pay, and inadequate training gave them little reason to stick around.

“The main reason employees are ghosting employers is they simply no longer have to put up with horrible working conditions, terrible bosses, low pay, and being overworked,” said Matt Murphy, an Oregon restaurant worker who told Insider he had never seen anything like it in 25 years in the industry.

While I want to cheer the workers, having worked some shit jobs, my contrarian side wonders how much of this may be attributed to Millenials who have been coddled a bit.

So That’s How

I’ve always wondered how courts enforced orders:

The Trump Organization must move faster to supply documents sought by the New York attorney general or face the prospect of an outside company searching the company’s files instead, a judge warned in a newly unsealed court order.

I wonder if the “outside company” could be a Trump Organization competitor. Apparently not:

If it does not, [New York Supreme Court Justice Arthur] Engoron wrote, the company will have to hire an outside “eDiscovery” firm to search its internal files and look for what James wants. Engoron said that if the Trump Organization does not do so, he will appoint a firm himself.

And…

Trump would have to pay for that firm’s work, the order said.

Well, that’s something, at least, although Trump would probably promise to pay and then not pay.

The Next Bubble, Ctd

So it seems the other shoe has dropped when it comes to cryptocurrencies and China:

China banned on all crypto transactions and vowed to root out mining of digital assets, delivering the toughest blow yet to the industry.

Crypto-related transactions will be considered illicit financial activity, including services provided by off-shore exchanges, the People’s Bank of China said on its website. It added that cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin and Tether, are not fiat currency and cannot be circulated.

Bitcoin slumped in the wake of the announcement, falling 8% to about $41,000 as of 9 a.m. in New York. [Bloomberg]

Which can be seen here:

And China’s not content with that:

Chinese officials are going further to stamp out crypto trading for its ties to fraud, money laundering and excessive energy usage. China already has rules that bar banks from offering crypto-related services. To get around such rules, traders have moved to over-the-counter platforms and offshore exchanges.

But this fellow thinks removing 1/7th of the world’s population from the target market isn’t important:

“China’s ban on all cryptocurrency trading activity will have some short-term impact on the currency’s valuation, but long-term implications are likely to be muted,” said Ganesh Viswanath Natraj, an assistant professor of finance at Warwick Business School.

I think someone has his reputation – or his fortunes – riding on cryptocurrencies.

I think other governments may follow suit, because an independent currency is a threat to the control such governments believe they need to survive. China is not the only autocracy in the world threatened by freedom.

And the United States isn’t the only democracy in the world threatened by the ransomware enabled by cryptocurrencies.

In the end, I think there’s a fair chance that clever people using an almost-clever tool will smash that tool into uselessness. The profligate use of physical resources to prop up a redundant currency is a serious enough problem; that it’s used to enable crimes that harm society, without bringing an invaluable positive with it to the table, marks it for doom.

Says da non-economist sitting in this chair.

One Leads To The Other

SemDem on Daily Kos doesn’t think much of Republican efforts to gerrymander their way to another victory:

States like Texas, which have been gerrymandered to death for the past 16 years, have to figure out what to do with all those new liberals moving into their cities. They have to go somewhere. However, a state like New York was last redistricted when the GOP was in control of the state Senate. This year, the Democrats are in firm control and could take five to seven seats from the Republicans. New York Governor Hochul has already said she has no problems with gerrymandering the hell out of the Empire State to make up for the GOP assaults elsewhere.

Ironically, the Republicans might have had more seats to play with if not for their blatant racism. The Commerce Department, which conducts the census, did the bidding of Trump’s white nationalists to undercount minority votes—especially with the Latinx population. The thinking here is that counting them would help the Democrats. Unfortunately, this racist strategy meant they undercounted in states like Florida, Arizona, and Texas. This means that these states aren’t getting the seats they deserve, and since the Republicans have the trifecta in these states, they aren’t available for the GOP to gerrymander. Oops.

When your election strategy isn’t predicated on convincing the electorate of the wisdom of your principles, but rather stealing an election, this suggests that your people are, well, fourth rate.

And if they are fourth rate, then mistakes will be made – crippling mistakes.

Oh, the 2022 election isn’t over with, it’s not even begun. The Democrats must have a coordinated and masterful messaging strategy, starting with the January 6th insurrection, and continuing to Republican intransigence in the face of the pandemic – but, done properly, the Democrats have the potential to gain, not lose, seats in the House and the Senate.

While I don’t think I’ve really published much on the 2022 cycle, I think we could see up to twenty seats move from Republican hands to Democratic hands in the House, which would be earth-shaking – and might rip the GOP right in half.

That Alternate Model Of Reality

In order to function in the world, we each construct an internal and incomplete model of reality. From how the physical world functions in terms of what we have to deal with – I’m not talking quantum mechanics – to how the social world works. These models help guide our behaviors and choices, and, because they are often shared models that guide social groups, we often modify each others’ behaviors via various communications modes: writing, pictures, social media, art, etc.

These originally began as survival strategies, but have gone beyond that. For example, the internal models may include constructions of what the Divine is, and what it demands. In the absence of real evidence of, or communications with, a Divine entity, we are left with baroque imagination, human desires, and, of course, inflicted models: charisma, intimidation, and warfare are, indisputably, modes of communications.

The advent of the Age of Reason and Science has served to obscure the reality of these various models. This is unsurprising, since mental models are definitionally not tangible; the Theory of Mind, the idea that, unlike most animals, we recognize that other creatures have a mind, and that it models reality, is not something we can reach out and feel. We recognize it primarily by behaviors, whether directly observed or from historical sources; artifacts, either contemporary or from archaeological sites; and the like.

And the models of reality associated with the Age of Reason and Science have enjoyed an almost unreasonable success in the areas of medicine and technology, leading to greater comfort, longer lifetimes, and a generally accepted notion that we’re better off than when, say, smallpox was rampant; philosophy has struggled to keep up, by comparison. Indeed, one might say the currently dominant model reality, powered by reason, excites a certain jealousy among adherents to old models of reality.


As ever, social evolution, or the competition between social aggregates, has demanded certain features of most such entities. Of interest here is the hierarchy of roles, and bodies to fill them, because it serves to efficiently order societal groups to fulfill those requirements peculiar to them. For example, the most basic societal structure, underlying all others in some geographical space, has responsibility for the physical needs basic to the human organism: sustenance, first and foremost; defense; and sanitation come immediately to mind. In response to these needs, we’ve developed several models of governance: monarchies, theocracies, democracies are familiar forms, while a few more outre forms have existed. Each of these have a hierarchy as a defining characteristic, as well as the methods, stable or chaotic, of filling the roles defined by the hierarchy. By comparison, a model train club may have more modest needs, such as a provider of a physical space, a historian, PR officer, etc. The hierarchy may be less stable, or, better put, more pliable, as well as flatter, but it will exist. In comparison to an undifferentiated mob, a group possessing a recognized and respected hierarchy has a greater chance of surviving a conflict. A hierarchy is generally considered a social good.

Accompanying most, or even all, such hierarchies is the concept of prestige. Prestige brings influence and esteem, at the very least; in more important societal structures it may bring wealth, more desirable foodstuffs, access to religious items, even unparalleled sexual access.

Prestige, particularly for those who lack it, or have lacked it, and suffered the boot heel of disdain, is a precious commodity. For all that I write very little of it here, prestige is akin to the gold of the avaricious 1500s Spanish: It motivates choices and behaviors even more firmly than do moral systems; indeed, moral systems often assign prestige as a way to entice adherents to certain actions. The prestige of orthodoxies can be the pillars of societies.

Or its undoing.

Prestige’s position on the meter of social goodness is in the eye of the beholder; it can certainly lead to uncertain outcomes.


So why am I blathering? I’ve noticed that the frustration and bewilderment of pundits commenting on vaccines and treatments for Covid-19 who are not of the far-right persuasion seems to be growing. Here’s former Republican Jennifer Rubin:

That so many people refuse to receive a vaccine approved by the Food and Drug Administration but trust the FDA-approved monoclonal antibody treatment for covid-19 or — worse — unproven drugs such as the horse dewormer ivermectin, suggests a level of irrationality and oppositional behavior (Biden want us to get shots, so we don’t!) more indicative of a cult than people capable of self-governance.

On a more general level, the MAGA cult’s claim that their anger is the result of elite condescension or economic dislocation never made much sense. MAGA politicians and their most virulent supporters seem more motivated — to the point of self-destruction — by unhinged and illogical resentment. Ending that phenomenon may be more challenging than ending the pandemic itself. [WaPo]

Notice Rubin’s use of the terms irrationality and oppositional. Steve Benen remarks “I will never understand this” when it comes to … vigilante treatments:

Anti-vaccine Facebook groups have a new message for their community members: Don’t go to the emergency room, and get your loved ones out of intensive care units.

Consumed by conspiracy theories claiming that doctors are preventing unvaccinated patients from receiving miracle cures or are even killing them on purpose, some people in anti-vaccine and pro-ivermectin Facebook groups are telling those with Covid-19 to stay away from hospitals and instead try increasingly dangerous at-home treatments, according to posts seen by NBC News over the past few weeks.

The messages represent an escalation in the mistrust of medical professionals in groups that have sprung up in recent months on social media platforms, which have tried to crack down on Covid misinformation. And it’s something that some doctors say they’re seeing manifest in their hospitals as they have filled up because of the most recent delta variant wave. …

Others are turning away from hospitals altogether. In recent weeks, some anti-vaccine Facebook groups and conspiracy theory influencers on the encrypted messaging app Telegram have offered instructions on how to get family members released from the hospital, usually by insisting they be transferred into hospice care, and have recorded those they’ve successfully removed from hospitals for viral videos.

Some people in groups that formed recently to promote the false cure ivermectin, an anti-parasite treatment, have claimed extracting Covid patients from hospitals is pivotal so that they can self-medicate at home with ivermectin. But as the patients begin to realize that ivermectin by itself is not effective, the groups have begun recommending a series of increasingly hazardous at-home treatments, such as gargling with iodine, and nebulizing and inhaling hydrogen peroxide, calling it part of a “protocol.” [NBC News]

Speaking as someone who shares with Benen a model of reality in which Science & Reason is dominant, I can understand his lament: it’s not easy to assume a viewpoint that is not rooted in the belief that the collection of protocols that is science is the best, if imperfect, way to understand and respond to reality.

But the part that I think Benen and Rubin really miss is the prestige component. Whenever joining a group that is an alternative view of reality, there is going to be more than a bit of prestige that goes along with it within that group. You are special for perceiving that reality is not what the dominant model depicts. That, in turn, feeds the ego.

So now the dominant model has vaccines available to strongly ameliorate Covid-19, and the alternative models are faced with a challenge: do they bow to the dominant model’s decree?

Or do they declare their model superior?

For the sake of the egos of the leaders, and in fact just about all members, it’s the latter. They have social position, they have wealth coming in, they have influence. For those who have no allegiance to the religiously agnostic dominant model of science & reason, it’s an easy decision: preserve social position.

Preserve and, by inventing and pushing ‘miracle treatments’ that are so much better than the dominant treatment of a vaccine, even if so much more expensive, improve one’s social position.

Or, for those pastors too lazy to even push that, just proclaim that God would never permit members of this congregation to become ill – and, when they do, claim it’s a blessing on the congregation. (No, I’m not making that up. I’m too lazy to supply the links.)

And the lure of prestige for the ill. You have the Covid, you take the Ivermectin, you get better, your prestige improves because both you and your social group makes the usual logical error of thinking the treatment cured the problem in the absence of a real study that can distinguish causation from incidental. But by following the orthodoxy of the group, the prestige increased. And that’s a good thing.

So long as you survive the tribulation.

But the fact of the matter is this: all models of reality are tested against reality, and those that are inferior models will cause suffering to their adherents. But the siren song of the ego is, truly, a siren song. Its wailing engenders gross moral misdeeds that are horrifying to those whose allegiance doesn’t lie in servicing their egos through leadership or suffering.

From those who are still adherents to inferior models of reality we can expect even more exotic claims of cures, of non-existence, of things I can’t even imagine, and will no doubt find horrifying when they say it.

But the dying and illness will continue. All for the sake of prestige.

Video Of The Day

If you are an aficionado, you think, of wellness, if you think the world of Gwyneth Paltrow or some of her colleagues, you might want to view Caitlyn Doughty’s latest historical video in her Ask the Mortician series, The Doctor, the Mortician, and the Murder:

And then ask yourself: Do I fit the psychological profile of Clara? Dora? Or any of the many other victims of Dr. Hazzard?

These are serious questions, especially if you’re prone to looking for outre medical treatments while distrusting medicine.

Rejection Is A Hard Thing

Perhaps to Democrats’ surprise, the election “fraudit” in Arizona has presumably disappointed President Trump:

Republicans in the state Senate, who authorized the fiasco, said it would take a few weeks. Five months later, according to multiple accounts, the endeavor appears to have backfired spectacularly. The Arizona Republic, among many other news organizations, reported overnight:

A months long hand recount of Maricopa County’s 2020 vote confirmed that President Joe Biden won and the election was not “stolen” from former President Donald Trump, according to early versions of a report prepared for the Arizona Senate. The three-volume report by the Cyber Ninjas, the Senate’s lead contractor, includes results that show Trump lost by a wider margin than the county’s official election results. The data in the report also confirms that U.S. Sen. Mark Kelly won in the county.

The official results won’t be released until this afternoon, at a presentation scheduled for 4 p.m. eastern, but not surprisingly, the findings appear to have leaked. [Maddowblog]

It’s important that Democrats not celebrate the result. The results of an amateur-hour effort like this is the sort of thing that shouldn’t be recognized as a legitimate effort; it is, in fact, nothing more than a bit of entertainment to attract money to the coffers of the right wing grifters who’ve been pushing it.

Elections and all of their surrounding activities are the deadly serious makeup of democracy, and should be treated as such. Celebrating the result is to legitimize the activity, and while that may be great this time, it may not be next time.

Democrats, just shake your heads and condemn the result.

Earl Landgrebe Award Nominee

This nomination goes to whoever is running the Texas Secretary of State’s office, which currently lacks an official occupant of the chair. Why?

Hey, the dude said frog – so let’s hop!

How embarrassing. No, the former President did not lose Texas; in fact, he won it by more than expected. For whatever ridiculous reason Trump is making up, Texas the Texas GOP is more than happy to spend money taxpayer money on it.

Hop, dudes, hop! Or he’ll step on us!

The dangers of political patronage.

Maybe Not That Impressive

electrek has an impressive report on Norway’s embrace of electric vehicles (EVs):

Norway is ahead of the game in EV sales, with gasoline’s share of the new car market vanishing more and more every month, faster than almost anyone outside of Electrek‘s Slack channel could have predicted. This has led Norway to have the earliest target for the phaseout of new gas vehicle sales in the world – 2025.

But gas cars might not even last that long. According to an analysis printed by the Norwegian Automobile Federation’s magazine, Motor, the downward trend in sales for gas cars has been so consistent and steep that the last new gas car sale in Norway could happen just seven months from now, in April 2022.

Norway’s Road Traffic Council reports monthly sales figures for all cars sold in the country, so we have accurate reports on just how many new cars of each powertrain choice get sold. In the most recent accounting, cars without any type of electrification made up less than 10% of new car sales, down from about 21% the year prior.

If the trend present for the last few years continues, the trend line will hit zero in April 2022. This is a lot earlier than their 2025 target (which, to be clear, is not a legal requirement yet, more of a soft target agreed upon by Norway’s government).

Well, maybe not that impressive:

These statistics do count conventional hybrids as “electrified” – somewhat of a strange designation, since they still get 100% of their energy from gasoline – but all of the top vehicles can run at least partially on electricity. And conventional hybrids make up less than 10% of new car sales anyway.

But if hybrids only make up 10% of new car sales, that’s still not bad.

It’s also worth noting the missing context: their used car market. I can’t help but wonder how the numbers shift if you combine the two, consumer sales only. Are the EVs still dominant, or does the picture change enormously?

But it’s good to see some are following what seems a common-sense suggestion:

Some Norwegian gas stations are already replacing pumps with chargers, after all.

Something every gas station in America should be doing on their own, as I’ve stated before.

[h/t CJ]

Word Of The Day

Parthenocarpy:

Seedless fruits are the result of a biological process called parthenocarpy – the development of a fruit without prior fertilisation. While it is true that this can be the result of human actions, it also happens in nature all the time. Often, it is a combination of both. [“No, there’s nothing wrong with seedless fruits,” James Wong, NewScientist (11 September 2021)]