Category Archives: Uncategorized

This one I can’t resist, even if the nominee may not quite fit the definition of the award:

[Defeated candidate for the Republican nomination for West Virginia’s 1st Congressional District Derrick] Evans’ fundraising emails, with subject lines like “I did time in Prison for Trump,” have highlighted his actions on Jan. 6 as a selling point for his candidacy. One ad even featured stock video of fake FBI agents busting through a window feet-first, when, in fact, video shows that Evans’ 2021 arrest was relatively mundane. [NBC News]

It’s rather like one-upmanship, isn’t it? I did time in Prison for Trump sounds like a classic line.

But I fear, in time, it’ll be the equivalent of a dunce cap.

In our third installment of this gripping drama … dammit, release your grip on me, sir!

Reader Commentary

A reader writes concerning a resource I’m using:

Meanwhile, the diagram makes no sense. Left/Liberal can certainly be considered approximately the opposite of Right/Conservative for these purposes, at least to a first order. But Libertarian and Populist are not even on the same axis, much less opposites. If one insists upon squishing them onto the same axis, they’re much more in the same direction than opposites. Both smack of individualism over society and community.

For the forgetful random reader, here’s an example diagram from On The Issues, former Governor Hogan’s (R-MD) as it happens:

Libertarians are generally four-square behind individual freedoms. The Reason magazine byline is Free Minds and Free Markets, and Reason is arguably the leading libertarian rag. Their ideology is fairly easy to describe: minimal governmental regulation. For some uber-libertarians, minimal means zero, and they explicitly claim the market will correct all, well, I suppose the applicable word would be inefficiencies. I recall, from a mimeo newsletter that I inadvertently received, called The Utilitarian, the authors argued an attempted justification for even crime being correctable through the market and prisons being unnecessary, a remarkable delusion concerning the rationality, or lack thereof, of mankind.

Populism, on the other hand, is less of an ideology. From Wikipedia:

Populism is a range of political stances that emphasize the idea of “the people” and often juxtapose this group with “the elite“. It is frequently associated with anti-establishment and anti-political sentiment. The term developed in the late 19th century and has been applied to various politicians, parties and movements since that time, often as a pejorative. Within political science and other social sciences, several different definitions of populism have been employed, with some scholars proposing that the term be rejected altogether.

It does continue …

A common framework for interpreting populism is known as the ideational approach: this defines populism as an ideology that presents “the people” as a morally good force and contrasts them against “the elite”, who are portrayed as corrupt and self-serving.

But I think populism is less an ideology than a meta-ideology, a set of rules to attain political success. That is, populists adapt to conditions on the ground. If the people want to march in a particular direction, the populist will scramble to get in front of the mob and be the leader. Ideologically, they can be flexible.

This is not necessarily a bad thing, although I think regarding populists with greater suspicion is definitely warranted; too often they are self-interested power-mongers and not selfless defenders of the public weal.

So far as the diagram goes, I see that axis as an indication of ideological rigidity. Whether it’s useful or not is another question; I suspect On The Issues will have substantial arguments for their presentation. But this is how I see it at the moment.

More Resource News

In the previous installment of this series I described the Siena College Poll as respected. Despite achieving the highest ranking in FiveThirtyEight’s evaluation of political pollsters, former Rep Joe Scarborough (R-FL), now an independent, and co-host of cable TV show Morning Joe, disagrees, along with Gary Sargent of WaPo, and others. They believe Siena and the Times are manipulating the data to stir up the political world and increase Times revenues, and they point at polling experts describing anomalies and poor methodology at Siena. Munchausen on Daily Kos presents a wrap up and summary.

I’m no polling expert. Maybe the best in the business is no longer the best in the business. Perhaps money has corrupted them.

Or maybe the cited pundits are suffering from denial of their confirmation bias. That is, liberal expectations that President Biden’s successful Administration should translate to public accolades are disappointed, and someone has to be blamed, so Siena takes the hit.

Look for yourself.

Oh, And Then There’s That Other News

• Speaking of Maryland Senate candidate and former Governor Larry Hogan (R-MD), he now claims he’s pro-choice. An acknowledgment of the Democrats’ biggest weapon in the election, will the Maryland Republican base tolerate it? Or is this a nudge-nudge wink-wink situation? Will Maryland independents believe him? Or will it all blow up in his face? Certainly, it suggests that Hogan’s private polling agrees that Democratic opponent Angela Alsobrooks’ ten point lead is real, and he needs to do something desperate. But is this the right thing?
• Sen. Chris Murphy (D-CT) has won nomination for his seat in the Senate for Connecticut, as expected, and is expected to win reelection easily. His acceptance speech was a bit apocalyptic, though.

Uxorious:

: excessively fond of or submissive to a wife [Merriam-Webster]

My goodness. Noted in “King Charles III’s blood-red portrait is a stylistic mess,” Sebastian Smee, WaPo:

Professor Richardson summarizes bad Congressional behavior – abrogations of the Constitution, eh wot – over the last few years:

The Constitution establishes that the executive branch manages foreign affairs, and until 2015 it was an established practice that politics stopped at the water’s edge, meaning that Congress quarreled with the administration at home but the two presented a united front in foreign affairs. That practice ended in March 2015, when 47 Republican senators, led by freshman Arkansas senator Tom Cotton, wrote a letter to Iran’s leaders warning that they would not honor any agreement Iran reached with the Obama administration over its development of nuclear weapons. …

Now extremists in the House are trying to run foreign policy on their own. The costs of that usurpation of power are clear in Niger, formerly a key U.S. ally in the counterterrorism effort in West Africa. The new prime minister of Niger, Ali Mahaman Lamine Zeine, whose party took power after a coup d’état threw out Niger’s democratically elected president, defended his country’s turn away from the U.S. and toward Russia in an interview with Rachel Chason of the Washington Post. Recalling the House’s six month delay in passing the national security supplemental bill, he said: “We have seen what the United States will do to defend its allies, because we have seen Ukraine and Israel.”

In direct contravention of the wishes of the American electorate.

But it seems to me that the Senate should pass a resolution reprimanding the House for wasting its time outside of its lane. Let Johnson know that he’s a bad boy. Sure, there’s no official status. But deliver it to the House ceremonially. Let the press know ahead of time. The People’s House needs to be reminded that they have no particular expertise in foreign affairs.

That’s what we hired Biden to do.

In our second installment …

• In Indiana, Trump-endorsed Rep Jim Banks (R-IN) won his uncontested primary to replace Senator Mike Braun (R-IN). Banks received in excess of 400,000 votes, according to Ballotpedia. On the Democratic side, Valerie McCray (D-IN) defeated Marc Carmichael (D-IN) for the nomination. Of note, the two Democrats totaled in excess of only 160,000 votes, so that suggests the independents will have to lean heavily Democratic for McCray to defeat Banks. Adding to the load is McCray’s lack of elective experience, so the mountain is indeed steep.
• In West Virginia, the May 14th primaries have yielded a Republican nominee of businessman, governor and Republican-turned-Democrat-turned-Republican Jim Justice (R-WV) and a Democratic nominee of former Wheeling, WV, Mayor Glenn Elliott (D-WV). Here’s Justice’s On The Issues summary:
  

  On The Issues: Jim Justice (R-WV).

  Mr Elliott currently lacks an entry in On The Issues. In terms of experience, for five years he worked as a legislative assistant to the late and legendary, or notorious if you prefer, Senator Robert Byrd (D-WV), and has since served two terms as Mayor of Wheeling, WV, his hometown, so he’s not an inexperienced naif. However, in the primaries Mr Justice, against competition, drew nearly 107,000 votes, while all of the Democratic entries together drew over 96,000 votes, so there’s a clear imbalance for Elliott to overcome. Add to that Justice’s classification as something like a moderate populist, making it easier for centrist independents to vote for him, and Elliott’s mountain may indeed be steep and tall.

  And yet, some question exists in my mind. There is no doubt that Mr. Justice is a chameleon to some extent, as his stance on abortion has migrated from SCOTUS has ruled on this to I stand with the unborn (from his On The Issues page). This changeability, not unknown for itinerant business CEOs for whom success, wealth, and/or power is more important than principle, yes, yes, much like presumptive Republican Presidential nominee Mr. Trump, may concern the West Virginia Republican Party’s voters. They may wonder as to his earnestness. They may even wonder if Mr. Justice would simply be another zombie member of Congress, doing little more than grandstanding, much like Gaetz and Greene, and skipping the hard work.

  Or would he even consider changing back to the Democratic Party if it suits a hidden agenda? Guessing at how voters might consider Mr. Justice’s positions and background is not a simple task; it may make more sense to suppose most voters will simply look for the familiar Justice name and vote for it. Or even simply “Republican”. But the implicit questions in his nomination remain enticing, if probably unimportant.

  There are no applicable polls, but if and when they appear I expect they’ll show Justice to be heavily favored.

• One of the oddest Senate candidates in West Virginia, energy company executive and former Republican Don Blankenship (D-WV), who was convicted of a misdemeanor in the mismanagement of a coal mine, resulting in the deaths of miners, and ran very odd campaign ads, came in last of the three candidates for the Democratic Senate nomination. However, he still drew 18.3% of the Democratic primary vote, which is not terribly awful, but it does raise questions about the Democrats in West Virginia. Or were the Republicans attempting to promote the weakest opponent by flooding the Democratic primary with votes for Blankenship? Frankly, I don’t really care, as I expect Justice to win.
• The focus remains on West Virginia because Mr. Blankenship is not the only oddity there. Independent Michael Sigmon has qualified for the general election for the West Virginia Senate seat … as well as for Maryland’s 7th Congressional District, Maryland’s open Senate seat, for which he did not qualify, and, of course, the Presidency. If you don’t believe it, feast your eyes.
• Speaking of Maryland and last night’s primary, in a shocker Prince George’s County Executive Angela Alsobrooks (D-MD) defeated self-funding businessman and member of Congress Rep David Trone (D-MD). In how much self-funding did Mr. Trone indulge? Nearly $62 million. While sometimes I wonder if money buys votes, it can also buy alienation, at least I suspect so, and I wonder if there are any polls measuring whether Trone’s millions spent on his campaign alienated voters, even those who may have voted for him in his successful House runs, of which there have been three.
  

  On The Issues: Larry Hogan (R-MD).

  On the Republican side, popular former Governor Larry Hogan (R-MD) might appear to have easily won the nomination. But, to my eye, it’s a troubling victory for him, as challenger Robin Ficker (R-MD) took 30% of the vote, and another 8 points were divided up among other contenders, suggesting nearly 40% of Republicans in Maryland are dissatisfied with Hogan. Given Hogan’s moderate stances (see right for the On The Issues summary) and stubborn anti-Trump position, this should be unsurprising, leaving him with the task of either convincing the MAGA-heads to vote for him, or the centrist independents. Insofar as Alsobrooks holds an early 10 point polling lead, it may be that Hogan must work harder. She also beat Hogan, in what may be an apples ‘n oranges comparison, in primary vote count, 240,000+ to 147,000+. That must be disturbing for Hogan as well.

• Nebraska held its primary elections yesterday. In the standard Senate primaries, incumbent Senator Fischer (R-NBNE) easily won, but 20% of primary voters wanted Arron Kowalski, instead, which can be read as the result of the Republican Party’s internal divisions by the uncharitably inclined. There was no Democratic primary, and thus no Democrat is present on the general election ballot, a blunder of a huge magnitude unless they’re backing an independent. Fischer will be faced by independent Dan Osborn and Legal Marijuana Now Party’s Kerry Eddy. Democrats should meditate on the Kansas Democrats’ example of taking back their State, piece by piece.
• Nebraska’s special election to replace Senator Sasse (R-NBNE), who left to take a job offer in the education sector, will feature appointed incumbent Senator Pete Ricketts (R-NBNE), who won less than 80% of the primary vote, and unopposed Preston Love Jr (D-NBNE).
• The respected Siena College Poll gives Arizona’s Rep Ruben Gallego (D-AZ) a 3 to 4 point lead over Kari Lake (R-AZ), according to FiveThirtyEight.
• The Siena College Poll has Nevada’s incumbent Senator Jacky Rosen (D-NV) even with likely Republican nominee Sam Brown (R-NV), according to FiveThirtyEight. Note, however, that Brown is not necessarily favored by all segments of the Republican Party.
• The Siena College Poll gives Pennsylvania’s incumbent Senator Casey (D-PA) a 2 to 5 point lead over challenger David McCormick (R-PA?), according to FiveThirtyEight.
• The Siena College Poll gives Wisconsin’s incumbent Senator Baldwin (D-WI) a 7 to 9 point lead over challenger Eric Hovde (R-WI?), according to FiveThirtyEight. This is consonant with an earlier Quinnipiac Poll result.

Steve Benen notes the latest House GOP push to impeach President Biden, this time in connection with the President’s threat to not deliver certain weapons to Israel if it invades Rafah in Gaza as part of its retaliation campaign against Hamas. The GOP is trying to portray it as the same as the incident with Ukraine for which then-President Trump was impeached, but failed to be convicted by the Senate.

As best as I can tell, Mills and Cotton believe there’s a parallel between Biden’s policy and Donald Trump’s 2019 extortion scheme toward Ukraine, in which the Republican withheld security aid in the hopes of getting Ukraine to help him cheat in his 2020 re-election campaign. It’s the scandal that led to Trump’s first impeachment.

This is not, however, a serious argument, in large part because there’s nothing illegal about Biden’s policy, and he’s not trying to leverage security aid for campaign help.

What’s more, a White House official told The Hill that the GOP’s claims are “ridiculous,” adding, “Senior administration officials had already made multiple public statements about Rafah similar to the President’s, including that we are also ensuring Israel gets every dollar appropriated in the supplemental. Trump failed to spend dollars appropriated by Congress that he was legally required to spend. This is about a purchase made by a foreign government and our decision whether to deliver that purchase right now, which could enable an operation we’ve publicly and privately objected to.”

All of which reminds me of a birthday party I attended a couple of years ago. Among the strangers I met was an assistant or vice election judge. Plainly a liberal, she was more than a little bewildered by her observation that the Republican lawyers being sent by the Minnesota GOP to observe election procedures were just getting dumber as the years passed. You expect improvement over time, no? But she wasn’t observing that.

I think that this same phenomenon is happening in Congress with the GOP. I know, I know, no surprise. Don’t they understand that, if the situations were parallel, that they’ve just admitted Mr Trump was indeed guilty of a high crime and should have indeed been convicted?

Somehow, I doubt it.

Just among the stocks I sort of keep track of, but do not hold any of, in today’s performance:

• MicroCloud Hologram is +61.5%.
• GameStop is +60.1%.
• FuelCell is +23.95%.
• MicroVision is +24.4%

That’s a lot of stocks up over 20%, in my small list of watch stocks, and with two capital letters in their single word names. Kidding on that last one. Maybe not.

The point is that two at least, and maybe all of them, are members of a new class of stocks: meme stocks. When I was a young investor, I might have called them the over the wall stocks, as scouring for ideas for investment required more creativity, as there was no Web to use for research.

I don’t think any of those above are a good idea, as the ripples in the web of prices of meme stocks are inevitably open to manipulation and positive feedback loops. The Web has introduced computers into the investing world’s retail segment, and suddenly things are going to move faster. Try not to get caught in the traffic with anything beyond pocket change.

But if you’re a young investor, keep an eye on them. Learn how the dark side of the investing world operates. And, who knows, maybe not all of these are the result of dark forces.

Scofflaw:

Sorry, but this has been bouncing around in my skull for a while:

Another Major Issue

Since my first post in this series, another major issue, referenced but unexplored in the previous post, has reared its head: the Israeli response to the October 7th incursion, mass kidnapping, mass rape, and mass murder of Israelis, mostly civilians and Israeli guests, by terrorist group and controller of the Gaza government Hamas.

The Israeli response has been to ravage the cities of Gaza, killing 30,000 people as they pursue Hamas members, who use the Palestinians of Gaza as a human shield.

President Biden is caught in a bind on this issue. If he supports Israel, then members of the Democratic Party who’ve committed to the Palestinian cause may stay home on election day, as demonstrated on Primary Day in Michigan. If he doesn’t support Israel, the Democratic moderate base will wonder as to his loyalty to Israel. He is attempting to thread the needle by promising to withhold some weapons if Israel moves against Rafah, a Gazan city being used as a refuge by Gazan civilians.

If you’re like me, an examination of the history and facts on the ground convince me that we hired Biden to manage these impossible situations, keeping uppermost in mind the best interests of the United States. I must ask if the American far-left understands that being a citizen of the United States requires such a posture. It’s not optional. But I don’t want to be President, as the entire situation would undoubtedly leave King Solomon in tears.

If you want more thoughts on this, here’s Andrew Sullivan’s heartbroken take on the matter: How To Re-Elect Donald Trump. A paywall may interfere, and sometimes Sullivan’s emotions contaminate his thinking, but he remains one of the best observers of American politics. And, just for fun, allegedly serious candidate RFK, Jr. (HE’S AN ANTI-VAXXER, FOR GOD’S SAKE) reportedly lost part of his brain to a parasitic worm years ago. At least Biden comes off as a level headed leader, unlike Trump or Kennedy.

Funding

Candidates can win elections without funding – but it’s rare. It’s worth noting this WaPo article from April 1 that indicates Republican Party funding sources are drying up. Most of the Trumpian candidates lack his apparent charisma, coming off as lunatics, although my view is this observation applies to Mr Trump as well.

The Republican Party may founder on the rocks of financial exhaustion as Mr. Trump sucks up all available funds for his legal bills – or his religious treasury.

And The Latest News

• In Maryland, where popular former governor and NeverTrumper Larry Hogan (R-MD) was thought to hold a lead in an otherwise Democratic state in the race for an open Senate seat, he now appears to be in trouble, even though primaries are still in the future. Respected pollster Emerson College has this summary:
  

  Looking at the November general election, both [Democratic candidates] Alsobrooks and Trone lead Hogan in hypothetical matchups: Alsobrooks leads 48% to 38%, with 14% undecided, and Trone leads 49% to 38%, with 14% undecided.

  Since February, Hogan’s support has decreased from 42% against Trone, and 44% against Alsobrooks, while the Democratic candidates have increased support in the general election, Trone from 42% to 49%, and Alsobrooks from 37% to 48%.

• In Nevada, Emerson College gives incumbent Jacky Rosen (D-NV) a good sized lead of … 45% to 37%, with 18% undecided. If the overperformance characteristic holds true for Rosen then Brown has little chance, and this in a state where GOP officials hoped to flip a seat. But there’s months ahead for things to go awry.
• In Wisconsin, the Quinnipiac Poll gives an early and substantial lead to incumbent Senator Tammy Baldwin, 54-42, in another state where Republicans had some hopes.

This space reserved for witty remarks.

Wicked Little Letters (2023) is a psychological examination of the female human psyche, trapped in a patriarchal system that is populated by those so jealous of position and power that they more resemble mobile and erratic volcanoes rather than rational humans. The powerless, then, desiring nothing more than some light recognition, are forced to engage in behaviors of exceptionally dubious social utility in order to engage the desired attention, which in this case consists of writing profane, insulting letters to various residents of the British town of Littlehampton, and then standing back and enjoying the uproar.

Driving the point home is the lone member of the local police who happens to be female, Police Constable Moss. Disregarded and dismissed by Chief Constable Spedding as worthless, Moss decides to return the sentiment and pursues the case on her own initiative, provoking another volcano in the person of said leader of the police. Eventually, Moss enlists, informally, a gang of women to entrap the perpetrator, while also extinguishing both volcanoes.

Perhaps unexpectedly, in the meantime another woman has been arrested, imprisoned, and is now on trial. Her behavior is certainly not above reproach, but it’s worth noting her lack of repression; the imputed irrationality is unbelievable, and must be disregarded by all the men sitting in judgment, officially or not.

Will justice be done? What is justice, after all? All this and more in this tale that purports to be based on a real historical incident.

I don’t read all, or even half, of Erick Erickson, nor listen to him at all. But yesterday’s article “Why We Can’t Have Nice Things” includes this passage:

The legislation uses an antisemitism standard developed by the International Holocaust Remembrance Alliance that is globally accepted — including already in use by the United States government1. Kirk, Carlson, Marjorie Taylor Greene, and others willfully misrepresented an example in the IHRA standard. The example read, “Using the symbols and images associated with classic antisemitism (e.g., claims of Jews killing Jesus or blood libel) to characterize Israel or Israelis.”

That last part is italicized because the grifters went out of their way to downplay it. Saying the Jews killed Jesus is not antisemitism.2 Saying the Jews killed Jesus, therefore Israel or Israelis are bad, is antisemitism. Using the crucifixion to hate the modern nation-state of Israel and its citizens is absolutely antisemitism. That is the point of the example.

TPUSA, which keeps a list of antisemites on its roster, if not its payroll, is being too cute by half on this stuff. The organization has set up a website distancing itself from Candace Owens’ growing antisemitism. If you search the internet for TPUSA’s views on Israel and Owens, your search engine will helpfully direct you to a special website putting distance between Owens and TPUSA. If you aren’t interested, you’ll get directed to the main TPUSA website where their relationship with Owens is highlighted.

It. Is. All. A Grift.

Yes, he’s not talking about Democrats. He’s talking about fellow conservatives and whoever else is trying to pass themselves off as traditionalists, while extracting as much money as possible from the conservative base.

Perhaps Mr. Erickson would be outraged were he to read that, but, then again, maybe not.

So, yes, the Republicans are ripping themselves into pieces, separating along an ideological line at the urging of the Mosquitoes of the Right, predatory creatures who live to extract the base’s wealth, and, incidentally or not, injecting more and more ideological poison into their blood stream: anti-vax, prosperity theology, pick your poison.

Not that the Democrats are doing that much better. Between the Hamas kidnapping, rape, and murder of Israelis on 7 October 2023 and its consequent Israeli defensive or retaliative strike, the economic concerns of a coddled set of voters who find a trifling bit of inflation outrageous, and the external concern of the anti-vax Presidential candidacy of RFK, Jr., the Democrats may have some legitimate concerns of their own.

But, at least as an independent voter, I don’t generally see the grifting on the left that I see on the right.

Still, we may, over the next decade, see a remodeling of the American political landscape as the conservative base realizes that a significant portion of their leadership are grifters and begin drifting back to more traditional and reliable news sources than Fox News, and then the left as that side’s leadership dies of decrepitude, both ideological and physical.

And then the American youth will get to come to grips with problems which may be unresolvable, at least by Americans. Such as the conflict in the Middle East, ‘cuz I have to tell you that, despite the wailing of those protesters on campus, it’s not a simple problem to solve.

Almoner:

1. a person whose function or duty is the distribution of alms on behalf of an institution, a royal personage, a monastery, etc.
2. British.
   1. a hospital official who determines the amount due for a patient’s treatment.
   2. a social worker in a hospital. [Dictionary.com]

New one on me. Noted in “How Pope Francis opened the Vatican to transgender sex workers,” Anthony Faiola and Stefano Pitrelli, WaPo:

But just before her Holy Week meeting with the pope, she felt less certain. Nervously lighting a cigarette at a cafe off St. Peter’s Square, she said Don Andrea and the pope’s almoner, a Polish cardinal, were trying to change her mind. She inhaled the smoke. Let it out. She didn’t want to let them down. Maybe, she mused, she’d go back to Paraguay. Retire.

A reader and parent writes concerning the banning of use of phones in schools:

I am a firm believer in keep your phone in your pocket in class or meetings, but that’s a skill they need to learn. I used to lean more toward no phones at school but it’s such a safety thing now….. Kids need to be able to call 911.

Judging from reports from schools, teachers, already overwhelmed with other tasks, are ineffective at teaching this skill. This, from the article, speaks to the effect of the pandemic as well:

Some educators turned to the pouches out of desperation. When students returned to school full time after learning remotely during the pandemic, their relationship to their phones had changed dramatically, said Carol Kruser, who was then principal at Chicopee High School in Massachusetts.

Instead of checking their phones at lunch, they were watching YouTube videos in class and refusing to put away the devices, Kruser said. Teachers were begging for help.

Insofar as 911 goes,

The school reminded parents that there is at least one landline phone in every classroom — and in many cases two. Teachers also still have their cellphones in case they need to call 911 (the pouches also are not “bank vaults,” Dolphin added, and can be cut open in an emergency).

However, the article did not answer the question, “And how well does that work?” And do you really want the kids carrying knives? Maybe each classroom is, not unreasonably, supplied with a few pairs of scissors.

Another reader and parent writes:

With so many active shooter drills and actual events, it seems like a bad idea to prevent kids from having phones.

I did not grow up with active shooter drills, so I’ve not been exposed to in depth discussions of this particular subtopic – and not the older parents reading this post. From the article:

In the worst-case scenario — a school shooting — students should focus on hiding and staying quiet, Dolphin said. “The whole idea that you want every kid to be taking out a phone and calling parents is the exact opposite of the safety protocols,” he said.

Mr. Dolphin, mentioned herein throughout, is Assistant Principal Raymond Dolphin, who researched and drove the introduction of Yondr pouches.

One of the motivations for the Hamas kidnapping, rape, and murder of Israeli citizens on October 7th was speculated to be an attempt to break up possible rapprochement between the Arab world and Israel. This report suggests a possible partial failure is imminent:

Saudi Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan said on Monday that bilateral agreements with the United States were “very, very close” as Riyadh seeks to secure defense and security pacts with the kingdom in exchange for normalizing relations with Israel.

“On the bilateral agreements between the kingdom and the US, we are very, very close, and most of the work has already been done. We have the broad outlines of what we think needs to happen on the Palestinian front,” the top Saudi diplomat said at a special meeting of the World Economic Forum in Riyadh.

He added that the only way such agreements would work is if there is “truly a pathway to a Palestinian state.”

In similar comments, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken also said a US-Saudi security pact with Saudi Arabia was near “completion.” [AL-Monitor]

One might argue that the Saudi stipulating of a guarantee of a Palestinian state is a victory for Hamas, but it’d be weak tea; similarly, such an agreement would take the wind out of the sails of the student protests on American campuses, leaving any non-student instigators without foot soldiers, if such instigators do exist, as has been suggested in some newspaper reports.

Solvolysis:

On the horizon is an even more promising method called solvolysis. Again, the term covers a range of technologies, but it essentially involves dissolving plastic in liquid and recovering useful chemicals from it. Solvolysis requires less heat than pyrolysis and gasification, making it greener, and it produces fewer toxic byproducts. [“The incredible new tech that can recycle all plastics, forever,” Graham Lawton, NewScientist (27 April 2024, paywall]

Not all new technology is good for schooling, or so I think. If you, like me, think cellphones should be banned from schools, WaPo has an article for you:

So in December, [Assistant Principal Raymond] Dolphin did something unusual: He banned [cellphones].

The experiment at Illing Middle School sparked objections from students and some parents, but it has already generated profound and unexpected results.

Dolphin likened prohibiting cellphones to curbing consumption of sugary foods. “In a matter of months, you start feeling better,” he said.

What unfolded at the school reflects a broader struggle underway in education as some administrators turn to increasingly drastic measures to limit the reach of a technology that is both ubiquitous and endlessly distracting.

Schools are used not just to teach knowledge, but to teach learning, including the ability to focus. Some might argue that includes ignoring the iguana in the pocket, but I’d argue that first teach focus, as it’s a skill unto itself, and then teach how to ignore the iguana in the pocket. Or let the kids figure it out themselves.

Love it!

A fifth installment? Is this then considered a success? I doubt it.

The Trump Problem

The Republican Party has, as a whole, the problem of the former President Trump on their hands. Convicted of 34 felony counts falsifying business records, he is now a convicted criminal. His allies’, or perhaps more accurately minions‘, support of him is now a potential anchor around their necks.

And many of them added more and more cables to that anchor over the last weeks as they went to New York City and pronounced Trump innocent, thus discrediting themselves when the jury came back with a guilty verdict, and did so with notable speed.

Some Members of Congress don’t care. Representing safe districts or states, they only worry, or worried, about being primaried by challengers more extreme than themselves.

But for others, their alliance with someone who committed crimes in order to be elected seven years ago is a major problem for independent and moderate conservative voters, who will refuse to vote for both Trump and his allies, despite Democratic flaws.

It all depends on Democratic messaging. I expect it’ll be expertly handled.

And if Trump continues to shriek about rigged trials and claim there is evidence of his innocence that was not submitted at the trial, it only gets worse for him. His claim that he was not permitted to bring those witnesses forth is ludicrous to all but the most devoted MAGA-head.

Candidate Quality

Recognition that candidate quality matters to independent voters must be an irritating surprise for some ambitious would-be candidates, but it’s a necessity in today’s world of aggressive national adversaries and nuclear weapons. The Republican Senate Election debacle of 2022 occurred under the leadership of Senator Rick Scott (R-FL), but whether it’s because the Republicans see his leadership as a joke, or because he’s running for reelection this year, he’s been replaced with Senator Steve Daines (R-MT), who appears to be more serious about the job than Senator Scott. The Republican pundit Erick Erickson, despite his desperation to keep the herd together, seems to get it:

And winning the election means picking real candidates who are not going to alienate middle class, independent voters *cough* Kari Lake *cough*. Frankly, in 2022, the GOP nominated clunker candidates who scratched itches, but made independent voters squeamish. In other words, the right’s reaction to the left’s actions was to nominate candidates who could “fight,” but lost all the fights.

To my mind, in 2020 and 2022 the political far-right nominated power and position hungry candidates, ideologues who were ideologues because it gave them social prestige, and theocrats who either passionately believe they were doing God’s will, or were in it for the social prestige thing.

Erickson’s problem is that he’s looking for candidates who keep him happy, keeping in mind he’s a far-right wing extremist, while making independents happy as well, and that’s a really big stretch. Worse, the ideologically pure, right or left, are rarely competent politicians in the American mold. They may fit right in with the murderous cultures of V. Lenin or F. Franco, but being humble rather than ambitious and arrogant as required by many in America? Hard to do for them. After all, God’s on their side.

Here’s a short article on the aforementioned Senator Daines:

An early Trump supporter, Daines worked with the former president to secure his endorsement of [“winsome candidates”]. Trump endorsed Gov. Jim Justice over Rep. Alex Mooney in West Virginia, and former Navy SEAL Tim Sheehy over Rep. Matt Rosendale in Montana, as well as former representative Mike Rogers in Michigan, David McCormick in Pennsylvania (whom he had passed over for Mehmet Oz in 2022) and businessman Eric Hovde in Wisconsin.

For Daines, a winsome candidate has independent voter appeal, a laudable and important goal. Does Daines have the judgment and drive to push his selections over the finish line? I see some problems.

1. Daines, a former Proctor & Gamble business exec, appears to like fellow business execs (McCormick, Justice, Hovde) and ideologues (Rogers, Sheehy – the latter, a naif, burdened with a scandal already). I expect former Governor Justice to become Senator Justice (R-WV), but I see McCormick losing by two or more points to Senator Casey (D-PA), Senator Tester (D-MT) beating Sheehy by three points or so in Montana, and Hovde to be slapped down, hard, by Senator Baldwin (D-WI). Only Rogers has experience in government at the Congressional level, and even he has a reputation as an ideologue. I don’t know if Rogers can win or not, assuming he even wins his primary. Daines picks appear to fall into two categories becoming increasingly unpopular with independents.
2. Daines may be picking those he’s most comfortable with, and not evaluating them for legislative competence. That’s an amateur mistake.
3. And who interviewed Daines? Marc Thiessen, one of the WaPo conservative opinion writers who doesn’t see his job as being hard-hitting when writing of conservatives. I generally don’t read him because his evaluations are damn silly, such as Trump being the most honest politician out there, and if you do, don’t take his Expecting great things approach to heart. From what little I’ve read, he’s overly optimistic about conservative candidates.

Joan McCarter of Daily Kos believes GOP Senate candidates are, once again, of dubious quality.

Polling Pitfalls

Mercy Ormont on Daily Kos has a meditation on good pollsters and bad pollsters these days.

And In Senate Campaign News

• Apparently the selection of Royce White (no relation) as the GOP endorsee for the GOP’s nomination for the Minnesota Senate seat of Senator Klobuchar (D-MN) has stimulated reports from several outlets on his past behavior as a candidate. If you’re interested, Aldous J Pennyfarthing on Daily Kos has a schadenfreude-filled summary. The primary is still to come.
• Nevada’s Senator Rosen (D-NV) has some more encouragement in what was considered a competitive State as The Tyson Group has given her a startling 14 point lead over leading Republican candidate for nomination Sam Brown (R-NV), 47%-33%. However, this pollster’s rating is only 1.2 out of 3, perhaps due to its use of online participants, so Democrats shouldn’t become too excited. Indeed, perhaps I shouldn’t cite such pollsters.
• NBC News reports that the situation in New Jersey could be a lot more complicated than expected for the Democrats:
  

  Indicted Sen. Bob Menendez, D-N.J., has collected the necessary signatures to run for re-election as an independent, five people familiar with the matter said.

  Menendez needs 800 signatures by Tuesday to gain ballot access in November and hopes to reach closer to 10,000 signatures by then, said three sources with knowledge of his plans.

  One of the sources, who previously worked for Menendez, said Menendez, who is on trial on federal bribery charges, wants the number of signatures to be a “statement” in and of itself, “to show the level of support he still has.”

  Menendez’s pride could be the downfall of the Democrats’ dreams of retaining control of the Senate. New Jersey may suddenly be on the hot list.

• In Maryland the former Governor and Republican candidate for the open Senate seat Larry Hogan (R-MD), does the respectable thing when his Party leader is convicted on all 34 charges of felony business record falsification – he issues a statement reminding folks to act in a sober, serious manner:
  

  Regardless of the result, I urge all Americans to respect the verdict and the legal process. At this dangerously divided moment in our history, all leaders—regardless of party—must not pour fuel on the fire with more toxic partisanship. We must reaffirm what has made this nation great: the rule of law.

  In response, he’s been smacked in the metaphorical teeth by what passes for the Republican Party leadership these days. Hogan is attempting to rally the traditional Republican Party that understood what it meant to be an American political party, but it’s not at all clear that he’ll be successful. In some ways, it would be very healthy for the United States if he were to win. But there’s probably more benefit in Democratic candidate Alsobrooks winning. Maryland may be coming back off the hot list, but Hogan gets to join the list of genuine American political heroes, while most of the rest of the current Republican Party leadership will not be on that list. Only those who testified to the House Select Committee on the January 6 Attack would be eligible for the list, in my mind, such as former White House staffer Cassidy Hutchinson.

• An early May poll that escaped my attention gives incumbent Senator Casey (D-PA) of Pennsylvania an 8 point lead, 49%-41%, over challenger David McCormick (R-PA?). The pollster is GS Strategy Group, with a mediocre rating of 1.5.
• A mid-May poll in Washington gives Senator Cantwell (D-WA) a 9 point lead, 39%-30%, over the guy who they must consider the leading challenger, Raul Garcia (R-WA). Mr. Garcia has little experience in electoral politics. I’m sure Cantwell would like to be closer to the magic number of 50%, but she has a substantial lead. The pollster is Elway Research (1.9). The jungle primary is still to come in August.
• 

  Governor Jim Justice (R-WV). Source: Wikipedia.

  Senator Joe Manchin (D-WV) is now (I-WV). Might he be considering rescinding his retirement announcement and take on Republican West Virginia heavyweight Governor Jim Justice (R-WV) and relative unknown Glenn Elliott (D-WV)? In some ways, it feels like West Virginia is a businessman’s political playground, as Manchin, Justice, and Don Blankenship (D-WV) are all businessmen who’ve been involved in this Senate race. Could there be personal animosity animating some of these maneuverings? This is all speculation, but if Manchin does enter the race, the tug of war between the two political titans could allow Elliott to win. West Virginia doesn’t go on the hot list unless Manchin decides he wants to retain his Senate seat.

  By the way, the picture on the right of Governor Justice is just the sort of visage I’d rather not face for a job interview.

• In Wisconsin, GS Strategy Group (1.5) gives Senator Baldwin (D-WI) a 12 point lead, 49%-37%, over Eric Hovde. If a more respectable pollster gives similar numbers, I suspect the Republicans will write Hovde and Wisconsin off.Incidentally, Mr. Hovde is another businessman. Are the Republicans becoming the Party of the Businessman? They have a long association with Big Business, to use the old terminology, but usually as representatives of Big Business, not as what feels like a private club devoted to vanity  political runs. But with Hovde in WI, Scott in FL, Daines in MT, McCormick in PA, Justice, Manchin, and Blankenship (a former and, I suspect, future Republican) in WV, and no doubt a few others that slipped my notice or mind, well, that’s a lot of ridiculously rich businessmen seeking to buy themselves a Senate seat.

  Heck, it feels quite Roman. Buyers beware.

The Arizona Republic’s Laurie Roberts on the latest tom-foolery from the Arizona Republican Party:

But maybe not in the formal sense. Phys.org has news about a newly discovered … recognized … oh I dunno … law of nature:

A paper published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences describes “a missing law of nature,” recognizing for the first time an important norm within the natural world’s workings.

In essence, the new law states that complex natural systems evolve to states of greater patterning, diversity, and complexity. In other words, evolution is not limited to life on Earth, it also occurs in other massively complex systems, from planets and stars to atoms, minerals, and more.

So it’s a proposal that we recognize systems satisfying certain requirements will move forwards as a result of ‘selection for function’, of which there are three types: stability, energy, and novelty.

Fascinating stuff. It should be interesting to see how useful application of this law might be in guiding us to new discoveries.

And maybe this explains platypuses.

A reader writes an impassioned condemnation to my statement, to which I’ll reply in parts. First, a technicality:

It seems your friend Haviva, however, leans in that direction. Reading his words …

According to the author biography, the author is female. Here’s her Wikipedia page for more information.

… most significantly, it does not matter whether some Palestinians or some Gazans in the form of Hamas or any other organized group or as individuals have committed some sort of crime, say, terrorism. Between October 7 and this past week, Israel has destroyed 70% of every structure in the entirety of the Gaza strip — a home to over 2 million people. Most of the officially dead are women and children. The number of “missing” people vastly outnumbers the official dead count.

Which leads back to an old philosophical conundrum of mine: when your moral/philosophical system leads to unintentional suicide, i.e., when following your moral dictates, which should guide and even govern your self-defense activities, leads to the destruction of your society, then what is the worth of your moral system?

It’s not hard to see that the actions of Hamas are intentionally genocidal, from their chants, echoed by American students, to their rocket attacks, the despicable October 7th incident, and the use of the civilian population of Gaza as a shield.

That last, used efficiently, is part of what leads to my conundrum. Terrorists who survive their terrorism are, in general, recidivists; enough recidivism and one has, in reality, a victorious army that has pushed the Israelis into the sea. If Israel’s moral dictates, either internally derived or imposed externally, endanger Israel’s population, then why should they be retained?

Do you for one second believe that 70% of those 2 million people deserve to die? Do you for one second believe that most of the “officially” dead of 33,000+ who were women and children deserved to die? Does the 75 years of non-stop harassment and killing of Palestinians by Zionists, starting with exiling over 700,000 of them and confiscating their property have no bearing on the situation? Do the egregious statements by some of those members of the Netanyahu cabal and members of the IDF wherein they literally state their intention to wipe out all Palestinians and/or all of Gaza have no meaning?

I am not omniscient, but I will note Hamas, Hezbollah, the PLO, and undoubtedly many other organizations have issued similar statements concerning Israel, and I have no doubts that, much like Israel hard-liners, they are working on activities designed to expel the Israelis and destroy Israel.

Insofar as the movement of Jewish Israelis to Israel since the end of World War II goes, I’m once again puzzled as to what was to be done. Irrationally hated by many Europeans and Soviets, they were returned by the substantial assistance, as I understand it, of the Western powers. And I’ve seen claims, 30+ years ago, that they displaced nobody, that it was all empty, which seems unlikely in retrospect. Surely it was occupied, and surely that was unjust? Except then we get into historical claims, but as you say below, all the history matters not.

No, the truth is, the power structure in Israel — not all Israelis, not all Jews — but those in control and directing the continued attacks — are literally engaged in crimes against humanity, engaged in attempted genocide of Gazans.

And for that, there can be no excuse. There is no excuse. They are in the wrong. There need be no further discussion on who did what to whom in history to do the right thing right now.

And, for me, resolution of conflict always requires understanding, if not validation or acceptance, of the motivations of the participants. For example, using the reasoning in the previous section, the actions of Hamas in using the civilian population as a shield leaves Israel with two options: Ignore such gross crimes against humanity as the October 7th kidnapping, or ignore the human shield.

And, yes, the actions of Prime Minister Netanyahu are so questionable that he’s been indicted – but terrorist actions took place back when Likud’s political adversary, the Labor Party, was strong enough to be in control of the government. This serves to suggest that Hamas, its progenitors, and its context are not primarily reactions to Israeli actions, but to Israel’s existence.

And that leads back to the above conundrum. The Western moral tenet concerning genocide, as important and admirable a recognition as it may be, can be seen leading to Israel ceasing to exist; or, worse, to the elimination of all non-Israelis in Gaza, as adherence to moral tenets that lead to self-destruction rarely survives with those threatened by that destruction. And if Gaza is threatened with complete destruction, will we see Jordan or Iran or Saudi Arabia step in?

Haviva Ner-David’s “both sides are culpable” is unhelpful in this context.

I could not disagree more.

The friend who pointed me at Ner-David’s article writes:

SJP [Students for Justice in Palestine] explicitly supports Hamas. So eff them. And it seems to me that the right thing to do is to release the hostages and agree to a cease fire. YMMV.

History did not start in 1948. Israel isn’t going anywhere. The idea that the international border can be erased and the Jews expelled is both ludicrous and criminal.

The Palestinians aren’t going anywhere either. They cannot be expelled, wished away, or all killed.

Given that, there needs to be a legal and political solution. Which there could be. But Hamas et al need to get over the idea they can disappear Israel, Iran needs to stop funding them, Qatar needs to stop protecting them, and Netanyahu AND THE DAMN AMERICAN CHRISTIANS WHO PROP HIM UP need to get back inside the borders and stop making things worse. And of course, a lot of people need to stop using words they don’t understand. Like genocide.

I don’t know if a political solution would work or not, there are too many folks running around thinking their actions are blessed by a bloodthirsty Divine.

But I’ve thought for decades that Americans are a bunch of bloody drama queens, from Manifest Destiny ideologies to the End Times cults that have flourished throughout our history, despite their manifest failure. Only recently, though, have I thought to attach the adjective arrogant to them. Our overwhelming need to be certain and right in an uncertain world echos throughout our culture, most certainly in our poor communications skills. My Hah hah is painfully ironic, I assure my reader. While there is value in the debate in which two sides put forth clashing ideas with great certitude, I fear most of us, now given the platform of the Web, do not understand that we should separate our self-worth and emotional well-being from the acceptance of those ideas.

And that leads off to anthropological landscapes of social prestige and power structures unrelated to the subject of this post, and so I shall omit them.

Incidentally, while researching my responses, I ran across this NBC News report from last month:

Support for Hamas as a political party has fallen to 34% among Palestinians in Gaza and the occupied West Bank, a 12-point drop from December 2023, according to a poll released Wednesday by a leading Palestinian research institute.

While the war is eroding Palestinians’ view of Hamas as the governing body in Gaza, relative support remains high for the militant group’s role in the war. Seventy percent of Palestinians said they were “satisfied” with Hamas’ war performance, as compared to that of other Palestinian entities, like its political rival Fatah, whose deeply unpopular leader, Mahmoud Abbas, governs the West Bank. Hamas’ Oct. 7 attack triggered the war with Israel, which has so far killed more than 31,000 people in Gaza, according to the enclave’s health ministry. …

Support for “armed struggle” dropped by 17 points, from 63% to 46%, driven largely by Palestinians in Gaza, and Gazan support for a diplomatic two-state solution has jumped by 27 points — to 62%.

It’s interesting, but I’m not certain how to approach it, given the volatility of the numbers.

Endosymbiont:

An endosymbiont or endobiont is an organism that lives within the body or cells of another organism. Typically the two organisms are in a mutualistic relationship. Examples are nitrogen-fixing bacteria (called rhizobia), which live in the root nodules of legumes, single-cell algae inside reef-building corals and bacterial endosymbionts that provide essential nutrients to insects. [Wikipedia]

Noted in “A bacterium has evolved into a new cellular structure inside algae,” Michael Le Page, NewScientist (20 April 2024, paywall):

It is quite common for one species to live inside the cells of another in a mutually beneficial relationship called endosymbiosis. For instance, cells in the roots of legumes such as peas host nitrogen-fixing bacteria. The success of cockroaches is partly due to endosymbiotic bacteria that produce essential nutrients. Some cells even host multiple endosymbionts.

My thanks to the friend that pointed me at this: Haviva Ner-David, a Jewish Israeli obviously more knowledgeable than I as I am not Jewish, nor have I studied the subject, expresses some thoughts and feelings congruent with mine on the muddled subject of the conflict between Israel and Gaza, and the accompanying protests on the American college campuses, in this article for the Jewish Telegraphic Agency:

When you say, “I am Hamas!” you are not identifying with innocent civilians, including children, women and seniors who were massacred and kidnapped or the women raped in captivity (according to eyewitness accounts from hostages who were freed). Even my Palestinian Israeli activist friends strongly condemned Hamas’ attack on Oct. 7 and say Hamas is terrible for the Palestinian people.

And when you call out, “Say it loud and say it clear, we don’t want no Zionists here!” you are fomenting violence against and silencing other Columbia students. You may disagree with them, but does that mean they have no right to inhabit your shared campus — or even live? Do you think I, an activist in the struggle for peace and equality for all in Israel-Palestine, have a right to live? …

The situation here is so much more complex than you care to understand. There is a bloody conflict going on, with people suffering and dying on both sides in brutal ways, not just in the past months but for the past century. One who studies the history and present will know that both sides are culpable and responsible for the conflict and its resolution.

And I suspect what might be termed moral norms are entirely different in the Middle East from the West. In this regard, the American students could profitably be studied on the subject of moral colonialism, the import of one group’s moral system into another society. This import is a dubious enterprise, as it’s being motivated by those who are not facing an existential crisis.

Sadly, given the overwhelming religious nature of the conflict’s participants, I do not foresee a happy ending to this conflict. Both sides see the divine approving of their stories and reasons for their actions, and when God is on your side, hey, why compromise? We see such attitudes here in the United States, at least those studying the intersection of society, religion, and politics.

When it comes to the students’ activities, I am inclined to remind them that, as Ner-David observes, the situation is far more complex than just about any of them know; that’s their moral system they wish to impose, unequally; and that we hire Presidents to deal with difficult international situations.

And, to be sure, the American people are the ultimate boss, but to promulgate dissatisfaction without having something to resolve the situation at hand, something that hasn’t been rejected by Hamas or the Palestinians, is really simply arrogant bullshit and not being an adult.

So how do I feel? Bewildered, aware that the Middle East operates on differ morality systems, frustrated – and painfully aware I have no real solution, acceptable to the morals of our system, to propose. And I fear that Ner-David is being painfully naive as well.

And I hope I’m wrong.

Professor Richardson gives the issue:

“I am in shock that a lawyer stood in the U.S. Supreme Court and said that a president could assassinate his political opponent and it would be immune as ‘an official act,’” lawyer Marc Elias, whose firm defends democratic election laws, wrote today on social media. He added: “I am in despair that several Justices seemed to think this answer made perfect sense.”

Elias was referring to the argument of Trump’s lawyer before the Supreme Court today that it could indeed be an “official act” for which a president should be immune from criminal prosecution if “the president decides that his rival is a corrupt person and he orders the military or orders someone to assassinate him.”

The Supreme Court today heard close to three hours of oral argument over Trump v. United States, which concerns former president Trump’s claim of absolute immunity from criminal charges for “official acts”: in this case, his attempt to overturn the lawful results of the 2020 presidential election and to stay in office against the will of the voters.

And the disappointing part? There are two answers, either will be correct:

1. The case of Trump vs. United States should have been silently rejected by SCOTUS, leaving Trump with yet another legal failing.
2. SCOTUS should have let Trump’s lawyers present their cases, and then chuckled, roared with laughter, and then told Trump’s lawyers, and Trump himself, to get lost.

And I’m not kidding. Pompous, self-important, self-aggrandizing, arrogant asses are best treated with laughter, as bad stand up comedians undeserving of serious consideration. Societal rejection, as lead by SCOTUS, is effective in discrediting fools like Trump, his allies, and his supporters. Supporters will continue to leak away as, well, the scales fall from their eyes; a lower percentage of allies will also leave him.

Some positions are simply not worthy of even minimal respect.