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The GOP, in the persons of President Trump, Representative Nunes, Speaker Ryan, and a number of others, hold the top of a hill in their war with the FBI. Normally, you’d expect those in a commanding position to win such a war, even second-raters like this bunch. But Eugene Robinson makes an important point – this is the FBI:

Presidents don’t win fights with the FBI. Donald Trump apparently wants to learn this lesson the hard way.

Most presidents have had the sense not to bully the FBI by defaming its leaders and — ridiculously — painting its agents as leftist political hacks. Most members of Congress have also understood how unwise it would be to pull such stunts. But Trump and his hapless henchmen on Capitol Hill, led by Rep. Devin Nunes (R-Calif.), have chosen the wrong enemy. History strongly suggests they will be sorry.

The far-right echo chamber resounds with wailing and braying about something called the “deep state” — a purported fifth column of entrenched federal bureaucrats whose only goal in life, apparently, is to deny America the greatness that Dear Leader Trump has come to bestow. It is unclear who is supposed to be directing this vast conspiracy. Could it be Dr. Evil? Supreme Leader Snoke? Hillary Clinton? This whole paranoid fantasy, as any sane person realizes, is utter rubbish.*

The asterisk is for the FBI.

And it’s quite the valid point. Let’s leave aside my constant, and no doubt annoyingly predictable, assertion that the Republicans are a pack of second-raters. Neither the President, an incurious man who doesn’t appear to have learned the primary management lesson that a boss should always employ people smarter than himself, nor his toadies in Congress, have the sheer resources to do the sort of investigating, collating of information, and out and out snooping which is the day-to-day business of the FBI. Nor do they have the professionalism, the discipline, and what appears to be the devotion to truth which should be, ideally and perhaps in reality, the attributes of the FBI. Not that I am deluded into thinking the FBI is run by angels, but it appears the current leaders, past and presence, are strongly bound by honor, and they’re certainly backed by one of the strongest information gathering and analysis organizations on the planet.

I suspect if President Trump and his allies want to play power politics with the FBI, they may lose a few appendages in a long, drawn out war. And while they’re distracted by the maelstrom, former FBI Director and current Special Counsel Mueller will be coming in from another tangent.

We can only hope the institutions of the United States will not be severely damaged while this Faustian drama plays out. And perhaps the FBI can also pull in a few outside players of whom we may not be aware.

Or, to return to the metaphor, President Trump may be beating his chest on top of that hill, but he picked a hill without a water source …. and the FBI will surround it soon enough.

Trying to predict this … Image Credit: NASA

I happened to run across something relating to this long-dormant thread concerning approximate solution computing where the problems are so difficult that they consume significant amounts of energy (the latter attribute of which also applies to Bitcoin, as discussed here), and as it’s from my alma mater (not that I have any sentimental attachment to it, not being the tribal sort), the University of Minnesota‘s Institute of Technology College of Science & Engineering, I thought I’d mention it. It turns out that CS&E has a Ph.D. student who has a paper getting published on the subject. I think. They sure weren’t talking about these fascinating subjects back when I was in school – but then, I barely survived college anyways. From a newsletter from the Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering:

Hassan [Najafi] is a doctoral student working under the guidance of Prof. David Lilja and his research interests include stochastic and approximate computing, fault-tolerant system design, and computer architecture. He is also the recipient of the University’s Doctoral Dissertation Fellowship that recognizes outstanding research work, for the 2017-2018 academic year.

A brief description of the paper:

Recent work on stochastic computing (SC) has shown that computation using stochastic logic can be performed deterministically and accurately by properly structuring unary-style bit-streams. The hardware cost and the latency of operations are much lower than those of the conventional random SC when completely accurate results are expected. For applications where slight inaccuracy is acceptable, however, these unary stream-based deterministic approaches must run for a relatively long time to produce acceptable results. This long processing time makes the deterministic approach energy-inefficient. While randomness was a source of inaccuracy in the conventional random stream-based SC, the authors exploited pseudo-randomness in improving the progressive precision property of the deterministic approach to SC. Completely accurate results are still produced if running the operation for the required number of cycles. When slight inaccuracy is acceptable, however, significant improvement in the processing time and energy consumption is observed compared to the prior unary stream-based deterministic approach and also the conventional random-stream based approach.

It sounds fascinating, but I doubt I’d understand the paper. For example, I have no idea what might be a unary-style bit-stream.

Massif:

In geology, a massif ( /mæˈsiːf/ or /ˈmæsɪf/) is a section of a planet’s crust that is demarcated by faults or flexures. In the movement of the crust, a massif tends to retain its internal structure while being displaced as a whole. The term also refers to a group of mountains formed by such a structure. [Wikipedia]

Noted in “Forgotten mountain shrine to a Soviet superstar of astrophysics,” Simon Ings, NewScientists‘s Aperture column (20 January 2018):

A FORGOTTEN jewel in the crown of Soviet astronomy, the Byurakan Astrophysical Observatory is located on the picturesque southern slope of Mount Aragats, a four-peaked volcano massif in Armenia.

Much of the mountain (above) once lay in the permanent grip of ice. Glaciers inside its crater weren’t discovered until after the second world war. Since then, the snow line has risen and sheep herders have abandoned the mountain’s waterlogged environs. Photographer Toby Smith, on assignment for Project Pressure, a charity documenting the world’s vanishing glaciers, also recorded the lives of those who remain on the mountain.

Nice pics, too.

As of roughly 2 PM American Central, the big 3 stock market indices are down anywhere from 1.3% to 2%. Perhaps it’s a bit of buyers’ remorse after a long, long run.

Or maybe it’s this:

President Donald Trump — poised to approve the release of a classified memo about the Russia investigation — on Friday ripped the ongoing probe, accusing top law enforcement officials of favoring Democrats.

“The top Leadership and Investigators of the FBI and the Justice Department have politicized the sacred investigative process in favor of Democrats and against Republicans — something which would have been unthinkable just a short time ago,” Trump tweeted. “Rank & File are great people!” he added. [NBC News]

Openly accusing the very officials he selected^[1] to run the agencies of being in open and illegal revolt against him – with no evidence, to boot. It’s tempting to connect market behavior with this new low in intra-government relations.

But I don’t necessarily give investors that much credit. After all, the markets didn’t come crashing down when Trump won election, did they? They – the investors, collectively – chose to believe there’d be a steady hand at the helm. A fair enough position, too.

But with Trump continually failing to be President in a responsible and positive manner has been rattling the world, and this may be the next group to be rattled. The next week will tell us how investors are really feeling. Can’t come to conclusions on this single data point.

1These would be Attorney General Jeff Sessions and FBI Director Christopher Wray. The former is definitely a Republican, and reportedly the latter voted in the latest GOP Presidential primary, while declining to vote in the election.

… that the trees have taken to using parkas.

On Treehugger Lloyd Alter suspects the oil industry won’t be disappearing just yet, despite the claims of some industry watchers on the green side of things:

Peak oil used to be about running out of supply; now some think that we will run out of demand. The oil companies will ensure that we never run out of demand.

Remember Peak Oil? It was all over TreeHugger, the idea that the easy oil was going to start running out and it would get more and more expensive and difficult to find.

We wrote post after post about Hubbert’s Peak and how we were all gonna die, that we are “in the confusion stage now, followed by chaos and collapse and basically the End of the world as we know it as we slide down the slope from the Peak.”

Then along came hydraulic fracturing (fracking), tight oil, deepwater drilling, Trump, Zinke and Pruitt, and the oil and gas are flowing freely and people are piling into pickups. Peak oilman King Hubbert became “a punchline rather than a visionary.” And now, over at the NRDC, Jeff Turrentine asks Could Peak Oil Demand Be Just a Dozen Years Away? But he isn’t talking about oil supply, he is talking demand, suggesting that electric cars are going to cause a different kind of peak.

In this very different type of forecast, oil production doesn’t necessarily begin to decline at a particular point. But our need for it does. And it’s not just a theory: Experts on all sides of the issue say that it’s really coming. At some point over the next 25 years, a number of cultural, political, and technological factors will combine to slake our global thirst for this once most essential of fossil fuels. After decades spent planning for scarcity, oil companies are now busily preparing for something that they never saw coming: their own marginalization.

To be fair, I thought the same thing two years ago, writing Sooner than you think? A prediction that electric cars will cause the next oil crisis. They don’t have to take over the market totally, just enough to tip supply of oil up over demand, like fracking did. But I suspect that the NRDC is being over-optimistic about oil company marginalization.

We wrote earlier about how the oil industry isn’t taking this lying down, and is seriously pivoting to plastic. They are investing US$180 billion to increase plastic production by 40 percent.

And, for Lloyd, this is a problem because we don’t recycle plastics in any substantial way. For the oil industry, that’s glorious news – new product going out the door. It seems to me that this may be a time for government to step in and say This material has to be recyclable and reusable or you can’t sell it. Of course, the screaming will be remarkable, both from industry and from the libertarians who think markets always automatically adjust, but it’s not going to happen without the managing entity – government – waving a hand.

People can be endlessly clever. It’s something worth remembering.

It seems like every time I turn around another Senator or Representative is not going to run for re-election. Most seem to be retiring, while a few are declaring for another seat. So I went looking and found that Ballotpedia has an excellent summary page of these announcements so far.

I don’t know how this compares to previous elections, and I didn’t find anything for previous years on Ballotpedia. Just to summarize, 3 Republican Senators are not running for re-election, and 15 Democratic and 34 Republican Representatives are not running for re-election.

Without the context of previous years, it’s hard to really speculate on what’s going on, but it sure feels like a lot of Republicans are realizing the next mid-terms are going to be very difficult, no matter what VP Pence might be thinking, and sometimes it’s easier to let the next generation carry the fight.

Then there’s the discouragement of realizing that the leadership is basically incompetent (I’ve seen sentiments roughly approximating that in print somewhere), realizing that power isn’t all it’s cracked up to be, and that sort of thing.

Incumbents are hard to beat. The large number of Republicans heading out the door suggest a lot of opportunities for the Democrats.

On Treehugger Melissa Breyer discusses the Swedish craze of plogging:

If Christopher Guest and crew were to make a mockumentary, a la Spinal Tap, about the warm-and-fuzzy cultural traditions of Scandinavia, they might have very well come up with “plogging.” They would portray wholesome Swedes running like gazelles through pretty Swedish landscapes, bounding with Swedish altruism as they stop, stoop, and pick up a pieces of Swedish litter to carry along with them for proper disposal. And it would be hilarious. But what’s even better than this imagined satire is that it is real! And it is awesome.

Which happens to be how I put things away. See it, grab it. Don’t see it, too bad.

My Arts Editor is not entirely happy with this process, I think.

The current Missouri Attorney General and likely Republican challenger for the Senate seat currently held by Democrat Claire McCaskill is Josh Hawley. In keeping with the rightward lurch of the GOP comes this statement from him, via The Kansas City Star:

“We have a human trafficking crisis in our state and in this city and in our country because people are willing to purchase women, young women, and treat them like commodities. There is a market for it. Why is there? Because our culture has completely lost its way. The sexual revolution has led to exploitation of women on a scale that we would never have imagined, never have imagined,” Hawley told the crowd in audio obtained this week by The Star.

“We must … deliver a message to our culture that the false gospel of ‘anything goes’ ends in this road of slavery. It ends in the slavery and the exploitation of the most vulnerable among us. It ends in the slavery and exploitation of young women.”

Poor guy is getting a lot of press, and most of it bad. So let’s see if we can help him out here.

We know that the sex trade is the world’s oldest profession, if we may take chestnuts at their face value, no? So we can immediately eliminate the obvious contention of his statement. But consider this: for the vast majority of that time, the sex trade was merely considered part of the commercial activity of society.

So when the “sexual revolution” came around, freeing women from the compulsion of fidelity from which men had freed themselves long ago, it lent an exclamation point to the work of women over the last couple of centuries to secure their personhood, previously marked by the Suffragette movement.

Which is to say, what had been a simple part of the commercial activity of society suddenly became … repulsive. Enslaving women for sex prior to the sexual revolution had not been terribly abnormal, even when the bonds were matrimonial. Afterwards? Not in the least normal.

And, so, he’s right, if you can read the sentimental tea leaves properly. A fairly normal activity suddenly becomes repulsive – because of freedom. The freedom to indulge, or not to indulge. The freedom to use self-judgment.

Thanks for pointing that out, A.G. Hawley. I’m sure the pastors you were talking with will appreciate this point.

Ben Caspit of AL Monitor reports that it appears that Israel may be preparing for a war brought on by preparations in Lebanon of a manufacturing plant for precision missiles:

Any analysis of recent remarks and moves by Israeli decision-makers and the heads of the country’s security apparatus raises the reasonable possibility that they are preparing the Israeli public for a “war of choice” in Lebanon.

This concept of a “war of choice” is especially sensitive in Israel. Ever since the founding of the state, its leaders have always tried to fight just those wars that were forced on it by its enemies or by circumstances. In contrast, the first Lebanon war (1982) is the best example of a “war of choice,” which evolved into a lengthy catastrophe. The second Lebanon war broke out in 2006, after Hezbollah abducted two Israeli soldiers.

The question is when the third Lebanon war will break out and whether it will be started by Israel. What we do know is the third Lebanon war will encompass the entire northern front, meaning Lebanon, Hezbollah and Syria, along with their Iranian backers.

The impression that Israel is preparing public opinion for a “preventive strike” that it would initiate along the northern border has been getting stronger over the last year. On Jan. 29, President Benjamin Netanyahu set off on a quick visit to Moscow, where he had another meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin. It was the seventh meeting between the two men in two and a half years, an unusual meeting frequency for heads of states. In fact, the two men meet more or less every quarter. Putin and Netanyahu have been “going steady” ever since the Russians first appeared in the Syrian sector. So far, this close relationship has succeeded in preventing friction between the Israeli and Russian air forces, which are operating in the same region, sometimes simultaneously.

The United States is also inevitably part of this equation, and given the erratic and weak Administration, it’s hard to say what will come of that effort. But it does appear Israel may be heading into war.

And I found it interesting that Ben, normally a critic of the Netanyahu leadership, did not suggest this might be a useful distraction for the besieged Israeli Prime Minister. I wonder if that is indicative of the seriousness of the Precision Project Missile work.

As speculation builds over the Nunes memo, on Lawfare Professor Orin Kerr of USC casts doubt on one of the central propositions thought to make up the memo – requesting an affidavit under false pretenses:

And some of that depends on identifying just what the narrative is for why the funding source was critical to establishing probable cause. I think that point is really important and too easily ignored.  In #ReleaseTheMemo circles, any possible link between the Steele dossier and the Clinton campaign is like an atomic bomb. It completely annihilates any possible credibility the Steele dossier may have, leaving the exposed words of the dossier behind like the haunting shadows of the Hiroshima blast.

But that’s not how actual law works. In the world of actual law, there needs to be a good reason for the judge to think, once informed of the claim of bias, that the informant was just totally making it up.  As United States v. Strifler shows, that isn’t necessarily the case even if the government paid the informant to talk and guaranteed that they would get out of jail if they did.  Nor is it necessarily the case just because the informant is in personal feud with the suspect. What matters is whether, based on the totality of the circumstances, the information came from a credible source.

That’s a problem for #ReleaseTheMemo, I think. To my knowledge, Steele was not some random person motivated by an ongoing personal feud against Trump or Carter Page. To my knowledge, he was not a drug dealer facing criminal charges who was promised freedom if he could come up with something for the government’s FISA application. Instead, Steele was a former MI6 intelligence officer and Russia expert. He was hired to do opposition research because of his professional reputation, expertise and contacts.  And his work was apparently taken pretty seriously by United States intelligence agencies. Of course, that doesn’t mean that what’s in the dossier is true. Maybe the key allegations are totally wrong. But if you’re trying to argue that Steele’s funding sources ruin the credibility of his research, his professional training and background make that an uphill battle.

That’s just the legal world, though. This is playing out in the court of public opinion, and it’ll be necessary to communicate the legal opinion to the public in order for the public to  understand that the memo is meaningless – if, in fact, the memo contains what it’s thought it contains.

Politico is reporting the Vice President Pence is taking a confident view of the upcoming mid-terms – he thinks the GOP can expand its majority in both chambers of Congress:

“Elections are about choices,” he said in the interview in which he discussed his midterm outlook in detail for the first time. “If we frame that choice, I think we’re going to re-elect majorities in the House and the Senate and I actually think we’re going to, when all the dust settles after 2018, I think we’re going to have more Republicans in Congress in Washington, D.C., than where we started.”

How so?

The vice president’s team has devised a unique ancillary strategy to support his cross-country campaigning: partnering with America First Policies — a Trump-backed public-policy non-profit group designed to boost the president’s agenda — to hold public events designed specifically to discuss legislative achievements like the tax bill.

The goal is to have the group set up events to help voters understand what the White House sees as the upside of the Republicans’ legislative agenda. A senior administration official said Pence’s message at the events will provide a “blueprint for how to be successful in midterms.”

Out in reality, the legislative record of the GOP is dismal. A tax reform package, hastily assembled, which in all probability will do nothing for the economy – and may break it. That’s the only major achievement, written in secret and hurried through by the terrified rats who feared their donors. The rest of it is trivia or just major failures.

BUT Voters are all about perception, no? So I suspect this will be another Big Lie campaign. Their won’t be any mention of the recent AND imminent contretemps regarding the budget ceiling. No mention of how the party is being ripped apart by the Tea Party’s Freedom Caucus. No mention of the mostly supine position of the Senate GOP regarding Trump’s poor choices for the Federal judiciary.

But they will be public events. Will the Democrats setup booths outside the venues and label them as Truth, or Here’s Their Record, or How They Do Things? They’ll need to counter-message, that’s for sure, because marketing is where the GOP really excels.

Synecdoche:

: a figure of speech by which a part is put for the whole (such as fifty sail for fifty ships), the whole for a part (such as society for high society), the species for the genus (such as cutthroat for assassin), the genus for the species (such as a creature for a man), or the name of the material for the thing made (such as boards for stage) [Merriam-Webster]

Noted, with some wonderment, in “Once and for all: Obama didn’t crush US coal, and Trump can’t save it,” David Roberts, Vox:

In his campaign, Trump seized on that resonance with an odd kind of fervor, using miners as props in political rallies and promising, again and again, to put them back to work. He has managed to make the fate of coal miners a synecdoche for the fate of the white working class writ large.

Credal:

1. any system, doctrine, or formula of religious belief, as of a denomination.
2. any system or codification of belief or of opinion.
3. an authoritative, formulated statement of the chief articles of Christian belief, as the Apostles’ Creed, the Nicene Creed, or the Athanasian Creed.
4. the creed, Apostles’ Creed.

Noted in “Kennedy’s speech — so how’d he do?” Jennifer Rubin, WaPo:

That is precisely how all politicians should talk and what is entirely missing — even scorned — in the Trump GOP. Are we going to be a credal nation (“We hold these truths … ”) or a nation that is defined as white and Christian? The GOP has adopted the latter, which contradicts the former and betrays decades of conservative rhetoric.

There’s a bit more to this controversy about the proposed release of the Nunes memo. To recap, the DoJ and the FBI have protested that releasing this memo “… about the FBI’s surveillance practices omits key information that could impact its veracity.” And more, from CNN:

“With regard to the House Intelligence Committee’s memorandum, the FBI was provided a limited opportunity to review this memo the day before the committee voted to release it,” the FBI said in a statement. “As expressed during our initial review, we have grave concerns about material omissions of fact that fundamentally impact the memo’s accuracy.”

And who’s protesting? FBI Director Christopher Wray.

Trump appointee Christopher Wray.

So what we’re seeing here, besides another attempt to discredit and damage one of the very security agencies which are responsible for keeping us safe, is a case of Trump’s appointee not acting with complete loyalty to the President. This, of course, is how it should be – these agencies must be carefully independent from the President in case he’s not a trustworthy man.

Will we see Director Wray fired next? Who will the next director be, Trump’s favorite janitor? This would be in line with his tendency to appoint and promote the obviously unprepared and incompetent. In fact, his appointee to lead the Centers for Disease Control, Dr. Brenda Fitzgerald, just resigned under pressure after investing in companies over whose test results she has control, a conflict of interest – and monumentally stupid. Add in fringe medical ideas, and she qualifies as having all the qualities of a Trump appointee. It’s a badge of shame, in fact. Incompetent, holding unsupported fringe notions – qualities not desirable in government leaders.

But back to the major point, which is this: there are many men and women who understand the importance of honor, and the importance of properly helming the agencies in which they work and manage. Trump appears to be discovering that not all of his appointees are going to drop and give him 20 everytime he raises a finger. AG Jeff Sessions gave him a taste of that when he recused himself from the Russia investigation, opening the door for Deputy AG Rosenstein to appoint Mueller, another man to prove his loyalty to the country.

And now it appears FBI Director Wray also has some understanding of how this all should work. The question is whether he can save the FBI from irreversible damage just because Trump and the GOP feel threatened.

And what can we expect? I don’t think the GOP’s going to back down, so the memo will be released. Will the FBI issue a correction? There is also a Democratic memo, which criticizes the Nunes memo – it’s not authorized to be released, as the GOP refused to permit that. Are we going to see a leak of that memo? And how can that be done to soften up the GOP base, rather than have it portrayed as just Democratic meddling or, even, treachery? Properly speaking, the release of the Nunes memo should in itself constitute treachery if it has classified material in it that can be used by adversaries to hurt us more – say, by revealing how we collect information.

But this is Trump. If it benefits him, he’ll do it. There’s no self-sacrifice in this man, no understanding that his role is to benefit the American nation. He doesn’t have that big a soul. And so we’ll just have to watch and wait for Speaker Ryan to grow a pair.

A dip into the old email bag brings us another angry anti-government missive, this time also attacking electric cars. Shall we take a look? I’ll intersperse commentary:

 The following article deals with realities involved with electric cars.  Similarly, if we all go to solar electric panels, and are “selling” electricity back to the grid, at what point will the owners of the grid demand payment for us to be hooked up to their grid?!?

Well, as Gomer Pyle would have said, “SURPRISE, SURPRISE!!”  I guess some people’s idea of efficiency is a bit different than mine.

It seems unlikely, seeing as the grid is highly regulated by the federal government.

Canadian Comments On Electric Powered Vehicles For USA People – INTERESTING !!

IT WOULD SEEM THAT IF ELECTRIC CARS DO NOT USE GASOLINE, THEY WILL NOT PARTICIPATE IN PAYING GASOLINE TAX ON EVERY GALLON THAT IS SOLD FOR AUTOMOBILES, WHICH WAS ENACTED SOME YEARS AGO TO HELP TO MAINTAIN YOUR ROADS AND BRIDGES.  THEY WILL USE THE ROADS, BUT WILL NOT PAY FOR THEIR MAINTENANCE!  Keep in mind the California Legislature is considering placing a mileage tax on motor vehicles.

Interestingly enough, this is the most valid point in the email – and I’ve seen proposals like the cited California proposal before. But let’s take this a little further than this guy did: the gasoline tax functions as a proxy for road usage, now doesn’t it? But it’s a bad proxy in and of itself, because vehicles have a wide range of gasoline consumption rates, from the big rigs who have very poor ratings, to little ol’ SmartCars and, now, the hybrids.

My real point here is that we’re not talking about catastrophe for funding road maintenance because of electric cars, but instead we’re making the mistake, and have for a while, of using a dedicated tax to fund the construction and maintenance of roads.

Why is this a mistake?

Because there’s a hidden assumption. That assumption is that only people who have cars and use the roads benefit from those roads. That, in fact, is the entire idea behind dedicated taxes. But that’s a bad assumption. Think of the shut-in who gets groceries delivered from the store – they benefit from roads, too. The bicyclist benefits not only because they have a place to bike, but they, too, benefit from the groceries – or the furniture truck that delivers furniture to the stores, and from the stores to the home of the bicyclist. I trust my point is clear – having a car is not a prerequisite for benefiting from the roads. They provide a way to bring in all sorts of supplies that all of us benefit from.

Thus, the gas tax should be repealed and roads should be funded from general taxation.

Electric cars merely point up the problem in how we fund roads, they are not the problem itself.

Ever since the advent of electric cars, the REAL cost per mile has never been discussed.  All you ever hear is the mpg in terms of gasoline, with nary a mention of the cost of electricity.

Electricity has to be one of the least efficient ways to power cars, yet it is being shoved down your throats.  Glad somebody finally put engineering and math to paper.

A British Columbia Hydro executive supposedly said: If you really intend to adopt electric vehicles, you have to face certain realities.  For example, a home charging system for a Tesla requires 75 amp service.  The average house is equipped with 100 amp service.  On a small street (approximately 25 homes), the electrical infrastructure would be unable to carry more than three houses with a Tesla.  If even half the homes to have electric vehicles, the system would be wildly over-loaded.

This is the elephant in the room with electric vehicles. Your residential infrastructure cannot bear the load.  So as your genius elected officials promote this nonsense, not only are you being urged to buy these things and replace your reliable, cheap generating systems with expensive, new windmills and solar cells, but you will also have to renovate your entire delivery system!  This latter “investment” will not be revealed until you’re so far down this dead end road that it will be presented with an ‘OOPS!’ and a shrug.

I’m not an electrical expert, but I thought someone else must have looked into this. And, indeed, here’s someone who gave it some thought and, ah, disagreed. Just one point he (I presume) makes:

My 145 year old house is 100 amps… but I just use less than 12 amps off of a regular 110 outlet to charge my car… the same outlet you use for a hair dryer or refrigerator etc.etc. 

This is the elephant in the room with electric vehicles … Our residential infrastructure cannot bear the load.

We all use that much with 110 outlets regularly (your refrig.. A hair dryer..etc) As such it would NOT overload your home or the neighborhood grid. And most people charge at night while sleeping when the car is not in use and the electrical grid is not being taxed as much (more on that below)

If you’re beginning to suspect our correspondent isn’t interested in actually analyzing the problem, you’re not alone. But now onwards …

A man named Eric test drove the Chevy Volt at the invitation of General Motors and he writes, “For four days in a row, the fully charged battery lasted only 25 miles before the Volt switched to the reserve gasoline engine.”  Eric calculated the car got 30 mpg including the 25 miles it ran on the battery.  So, the range including the 9-gallon gas tank and the 16 kwh battery is approximately 270 miles.

Yes, that sounds about correct for the Volt – it’s advertised to be a short range hybrid, good for in-town driving. As the technology ramps up, stories like these will become historical curiosities, not warnings. The Teslas have a 200+ mile range, as I understand it. The Volt should be used for in-town driving where your mileage is less than 25 miles and, in fact, you can charge it up overnight and end up not running the motor much at all.

It will take you 4.5 hours to drive 270 miles at 60 mph.  Then add 10 hours to charge the battery and you have a total trip time of 14.5 hours.  In a typical road trip your average speed (including charging time) would be 20 mph.

Unless, of course, you happen to use a Tesla charging station. While not yet common, such installations – and it doesn’t have to be Tesla – can become as common as gas stations. How do we know this? Because gas stations exist.

And electric charging stations don’t require expensive tanker visits.

But how long? According to the cited web site, it’ll take about 30 minutes. Go ahead, click on the link and scroll down a bit. There’s a helpful map showing current and planned stations. And some helpful pics of Tesla cars 🙂

According to General Motors, the Volt battery holds 16 kwh of electricity.  It takes a full 10 hours to charge a drained battery.  The cost for the electricity to charge the Volt is never mentioned.  If you pay approximately (it varies with amount used and the seasons) $1.16 per kwh. 16 kwh x $1.16 per kwh = $18.56 to charge the battery.  $18.56 per charge divided by 25 miles = $0.74 per mile to operate the Volt using the battery.  Compare this to a similar size car with a gasoline engine that gets only 32 mpg.  $3.19 per gallon divided by 32 mpg = $0.10 per mile.

This is misdirection, as well as misinformation (see above comment concerning time)! It entirely ignores the point, which is emissions. Say it with me, emissions are making the planet hotter. They’re ruining crops, driving up food costs and air-conditioning costs (but maybe lowering snow-plowing costs :).

Additionally, electricity costs are going down. You’ll notice the author conveniently ignores the possibility that you have a solar power harvesting strategy, from your house’s roof-top to a Tesla solar power panel dedicated to your car – you pop it on the roof of the garage, it goes into a battery, and you plug that into your Tesla car. In this case, you have one up-front cost and then … no cost.

The math is bad because the variables are far more extensive than this biased author wants you to think about, and the important variables – the cost of fossil fuels in both $$s and in cost to the health of you and your children, are rising, while the cost of electricity generated without fossil fuels is falling. Beware bad math.

The gasoline powered car costs about $20,000 while the Volt costs $46,000-plus.  It looks like the “Greenies” in the American Government want loyal Americans NOT to do the math, but simply pay three times as much for a car, that costs more than seven times as much to run, and takes three times longer to drive across the country.

Say What…….?

And you have to love how he prices a gasoline powered car at $20K. Most folks don’t buy cars priced at that – they’re getting SUVs at $50K, Porsches at $60K, BMWs at $80K. Even the famously inexpensive Mini-Cooper’s price is going up. I bought a basic one for more than $20K back in 2005. I’ll bet I can’t get one for that now.

For comparison, the new Tesla 3, base model with no frills, is about $35K – and, yes, I and my wife are on the list to get one. Although, given our condtions, we may get an add-on package so we can have heated seats.

But notice how the author is blaming “government greenies,” which is both funny, as I doubt there are any such efforts going on at the moment in the current Trump “Clean Coal” Administration, and wrong – it’s all about the markets, baby, and the markets are slowly moving towards electric cars. We know Trump’s Administration won’t push this particular initiative, so trying to stir up anti-government indignation is deeply, deeply intellectually fraudulent.

Unless this guy is trying to reference foreign governments that are pushing for electric vehicles. But why would he care?

So, in case you bought into this little slickster’s presentation, you should ask yourself – how credulous am I? If you could confront him, he might argue he was only yelling about hybrids, but that’s not in the least clear here. Of course, hybrids will be a niche market, as I see it, for those vehicles going where there are no electric stations – and those areas will always exist. They often don’t have gas stations, either, but given the greater energy density of gas compared to batteries, gas makes more sense for specific situations.

But that’s a tiny fraction compared to most of our driving. If we want to continue to drive (and reportedly Millenials just aren’t all that interested) without destroying the environment on which we all depend, we’ll be moving towards electric cars.

She’s a sneaky one, isn’t she?

I don’t think anyone can argue it was probably one of the most successful first years in office …

That’s White House spokeman Sarah Huckabee Sanders … and what does she mean by that statement? Out of context, it’s actually quite ambiguous. I’d go so far as to argue that she’s telling the truth – the Trump Administration had a perfectly awful first year, probably the worst in history, and she’s saying, Well, it wasn’t a great year….

Of course, the context does give the lie to my interpretation:

The President is extremely proud of the accomplishments we had during 2017.  I don’t think anyone can argue it was probably one of the most successful first years in office:  Passed major legislation, reworked the court system, and got a Supreme Court justice nominated and approved and on the bench in the first year; a booming economy; massive gains against the war on ISIS.  I think we’ve had an extremely successful 2017, and some of that is due to the relationship-building that he was able to do there.

Clearly, she thinks, or wants us to think, that it’s been an exemplary year.

And, yet, I remain fascinated with the ambiguity of the statement. It’s emblematic of an Administration desperately scrabbling to simply remain in office in the face of tremendous failures, tangible and intangible.

It’s as if she’s decided to become an actual symbol of cognitive dissonance through the use of one simple statement. I halfway expect her head to explode, leaving only the remnants of her Christian upbringing, a smoking ruin, for us to marvel at in horror.

I recorded the State of the Union address, but having seen bits and pieces of it on the news and Colbert, I think I’ll take a pass on analyzing it. I mean, how often can I write Wrong, That’s Obama’s Achievement, Those Jobs Were Announced Two Years Ago, Yep That’s A Problem So Why Haven’t You Done Anything About It, That’s A Lie, That’s A Lie, and By God I Hope You’re Right But I Think We’ll Be Staring A Recession In The Face Before Too Long?

I do blogging for my own enjoyment, not to hurt myself.

While reading Steve Benen’s commentary on Republicans use of the Watergate comparison, this rang a bell for me:

As regular readers know, for much of Barack Obama’s presidency, his detractors seemed annoyed by the lack of credible scandals surrounding his White House. The more the Democratic president stayed out of trouble, the more Obama’s critics searched for a new “Watergate.”

At one point, I counted at least 10 separate “controversies” that various observers labeled “Obama’s Watergate,” each of which turned out to be meaningless, further diluting an already over used cliche.

And I’ve noticed in my random readings in the conservative side of the line that this does continue, as Steve elsewhere notes^[1].  And I think it has to do with a GOP sense of inferiority. President Clinton had several scandals, and while most proved to be nothing, the Lewinsky affair, as silly and trivial as it started out being, morphed into a big old anchor around President Clinton’s neck.

But the disaster that was the Bush Presidency, between inciting at least one unnecessary war that resulted in hundreds of thousands of civilian casualties and pushed the Middle East towards instability, through a GOP-controlled Congress that was spending money like a drunken sailor, the Great Recession, and finally the horrendous blot on our honor of actually promoting torture as a legitimate interrogation technique, made Clinton look like his worst crime was wearing cheap makeup.

Then Obama came along and managed to run a scandal free Administration for 8 years, led the way out of the Great Recession, and, well, let’s just call it a successful two terms.

Now we have Trump, who seems to specialize in daily scandals, ranging from rank incompetence, through deliberate attempts to destroy important institutions of our democracy, to possible treacherous collusion with the Kremlin to contaminate the last Presidential election.

As the GOP appears to be swirling around the toxic shithole that comes from toadying up to President Trump, there must be a consciousness that they are not measuring up to the standard set by the last two Presidents hailing from the Democratic Party. Indeed, it’s gotten so bad that the last two Republican Presidents have effectively repudiated President Trump, and by extension the GOP itself.

Inferiority complex? All the makings are there, aren’t they? All the GOP has at this point is a superior marketing machine, consisting of their “talking points” psychological approach to manipulating voters, and the right-wing talk radio hosts who make it happen. Governance? Good policies? A fucking clue on how to conduct themselves? They’re hardly doing more than mumbling incoherently through their fingers when they’re not frantically retreating from one position to another. I’m looking at you, Senators Rubio and Graham.

The question is whether or not the wheels will fall off the Republican machine before the Republic is irretrievably broken by the pack of second- and third-raters currently packing the GOP side of the aisle.

¹For that matter, Andy McCarthy once called the JFK Administration “Caligula-like”, referencing a Roman emperor reputed to be insane and sadistic, but it was a passing remark on Andy’s part, presented with no evidence – which could be construed as another dishonest attempt to stain the left side of the political spectrum.

The latest scandal of the Trump Presidency is the announcement today that they won’t be implementing the sanctions mandated by Congress. The best single sentence response I’ve seen so far comes from Nicholas Burns, former US Ambassador to NATO for President G. W. Bush, and now at Harvard:

Trump’s weakness is appalling.

Perhaps more than anything else, weakness is the word that summarizes Trump as President. From his flip-flopping on China, his refusal to lead on climate change, his flip-flopping on TPP, his flip-flopping on immigration, his being led around by the nose by Fox News, and his consistent failure to recognize Russia as an ongoing threat, he has been a President of no great vision, no obduracy, no leadership.

A strong President would have no need to attack the national security agencies, the free press, and all of his other attacks on our institutions. Those, in fact, would be part of his strengths.

In fact, his only strong attribute is his mouth.

And now the GOP, which controls Congress, has a challenge in front of it. Both chambers voted overwhelmingly for these sanctions; if Trump had vetoed the legislation, an override would have not required negotiations. Will the GOP step up and tell him to do his job? Or are they still a bunch of wet-wipes for the President to use as needed?

If you’re a Trump supporter, you have some strong questions to ask yourself, starting with why you’re supporting the weakest, most vacillating President since, well, way before my lifetime. It’s time to disregard his penchant for speaking to your fears, and start evaluating his behavior.

And if you don’t think he’s weak, hey, tell me why. There’s a mail link up on the right side.

Egyptian news reader Shahira Amin shares in AL Monitor what the press looks like from the inside when it’s not free, from her experience in 2011 during the Arab Spring, the time of rioting and yearning for freedom from oppressive governments in many Arab countries:

As I got ready to go on air Feb. 2, the producers handed me the news bulletin. It made no mention of the “Battle of the Camels” that had just taken place. I learned that Abdel Latif al-Menawi, the man in charge of the news department for state television, had ordered them not to mention the incident. This was the first time in all my years working for Nile TV that I became aware of direct editorial interference by the station’s management. Because we broadcast in English and French for Egypt’s expatriate community, Nile TV had long enjoyed more editorial freedom than our Arabic-language sister channels. Not anymore. As it turns out, Menawi had called the producers several times that day, issuing new directives every couple of hours. The presenters were told to read Interior Ministry press releases that acknowledged that protesters had been killed while denying the security forces’ involvement. I refused.

For my live talk show that evening, I had planned to host an outspoken Mubarak regime critic. A couple of hours before the show, Menawi summoned me to his office to tell me there had been a “slight” change of plan. A member of the president’s National Democratic Party, Hussein Haridy, would be my guest instead. “You may discuss the uprising,” I remember Menawi telling me. “But you can only talk about attempts by Iran, Hamas and Hezbollah to destabilize Egypt and the need for a national reconciliation dialogue between different factions of society.”

For an hour, I sat aghast as the irrepressible regime apologist droned on about how the protesters were all “thugs” and “hired agents.” That night, overwhelmed by shame and guilt, I could not fall asleep. The next morning, I slipped on jeans and a T-shirt instead of a formal suit, having unconsciously decided to quit. Upon hearing the protesters clamoring for “Bread, Freedom and Social Justice” on my way to work, I parked my car and marched enthusiastically into Tahrir Square.

Thugs and hired agents … sounds sadly familiar, doesn’t it? At one point President Trump tried out that line.

I took out my cellphone and banged out a message to my boss. “Forgive me, I’m not coming back,” I wrote. “I’m on the side of the people, not the regime.” Moments later, I got a call from the head of security at state TV: “Miss Amin, what happened? Are you upset about something?” He sounded anxious. Before I had a chance to reply, the mobile network went down and my phone went dead. I was relieved that I did not have to explain myself. And for the first time in years, I felt free.

Readers persuaded the free press should be less free because it inhibits President Trump should consider what a less free press looks like, and how much less useful it would be for you – even if it isn’t controlled by your “political enemies.” Which, frankly, is a phrase to be discarded – we’re all Americans, and we’re all in this together. But a press without the current protections from libel, etc, would make me nervous, regardless of who was in power.

Noted while fixing a typo, wreckless vs reckless.

WaPo helpfully points out that perjury trap, a term thrown around by Trump advisors and lawyers in reaction to reports that Special Counsel Mueller is interested in interviewing President Trump concerning his campaign possibly colluding with Russia during the 2016 Presidential Campaign, is actually a term of art, and not applicable to the interview:

But “perjury trap” is a specific legal defense, related to entrapment. A claim of a perjury trap is really a claim of prosecutorial misconduct. It refers to an abuse of the legal process, whereby a prosecutor subpoenas a witness to testify not for a legitimate investigative purpose but to try to catch him in an inconsistency or falsehood — even a relatively minor one — that can then trigger a perjury charge.

Because there’s not a doubt in the world that Trump is a witness to any possible wrong-doing, the term doesn’t apply. WaPo believes this is the motivation:

Characterizing the president’s interview as a potential perjury trap is simply wrong. But it is of a piece with the broader effort by the president and his political allies to discredit Mueller’s investigation. It suggests — wrongly — that Mueller is treating the president unfairly. If the president commits perjury or false statements, it will be because he chose to lie — not because he was caught in a “trap.”

Or you can simply believe they’re all second-raters.