Category Archives: Uncategorized

But I like it.

The Leading Issue

The 2024 Senate Campaign, as well as the House campaign, which I do not plan to comment on – much – will center around one issue.

Reproductive rights.

By which I mean not only abortion, which has become an issue of flaming importance, but IVF (in vitro fertilisation) and birth control in general.

And, as several pundits have already said, this means women, who will generally be furious at losing a Constitutionally guaranteed right to the willfulness of a conservative SCOTUS in Dobbs, and to IVF in the Alabama Supreme Court, will be the deciding force in a number of races. How do we know this? Those abortion ballot issues, such as this one in Kansas, which have been won by shockingly large margins, possibly without exception, by pro-choice forces.

The Economy

While the connection between the economy and the Senate is nebulous, its more solid connection to the President may be enough to coax uncertain voters to vote Democratic, even in red states. The Biden Administration’s success in rescuing the economy from previous Republican mismanagement did cause inflation, it’s true, but that fact must be communicated properly; Biden’s success in passing programs such as the infrastructure bill, a signal failure (or simply lip-flapping) of the Trump Administration, also presents a distinct advantage for the incumbent.

Candidate Quality

As in 2022, candidate quality is definitely a Democratic advantage. This is a result of a toxic culture in the Republican Party, as such qualities as competence, experience, compromise, and moderation are not appreciated by those who select official nominees, and the number of Lisa Murkowskis, a moderate who has won one write in campaign against a right-wing extremist in 2010 and could probably win another with ease, in the Republican Party is limited to three to my knowledge (the others being former Maryland Governor Larry Hogan and current New Hampshire Governor Chris Sununu nyah, not really). Nominated Republican candidates, as in 2022, will win their places through absolutist rhetoric that may excite the base, but will repulse the independents and Republican moderates.

The Punditocracy

Because they’re paid to do so, traditional pundits will cling to traditional measures and aphorisms in making predictions about the results of Senate races. A popular such aphorism is the observation that, because Democrats are defending more seats, they’re more at risk.

I’m here to tell you that this season will be more like the 2022 shocker, in which Democrats just barely lost the House and picked up a seat in the Senate, when the traditional expectation was that in a Presidential mid-term election, the President’s allies do not do well. In 2022 they did very well compared to expectations, a monster of an overperformance. That overperformance has continued in both special elections and, shockingly, in the behavior of the Republican House contingent, which has behaved like a combination of disgusted old men and self-centered brats, with just a sprinkling of Russian agents mixed in — I exaggerate only slightly.

While overperformances on the order of the Republican Vermont primary of this year are not going to happen in the general election, overperformances of a more modest, yet effective caliber remains possible, and even probable. I think there’s a lot of disgust with Republican incompetence, lies, and grandstanding, enough to overwhelm disgust and distrust with Democrats’ and certain of their missteps, and pollsters, due to their lack of access to the youngest voters, have been and will continue missing that data source.

In the End

Democrats must communicate the extremism of their opponents in order to have a chance of winning in contestable seats. President Biden must lead the communication and, additionally, emphasize abortion rights, the superiority of Democratic economic understanding, the Russian alignment of certain Republicans, candidate quality differentials, and moderate extreme-left positions in order to reassure independent voters.

Index

| Arizona | California | Connecticut | Delaware | Florida | Hawaii | Indiana | Maine | Maryland | Massachusetts | Michigan | Minnesota | Mississippi | Missouri | Montana | Nebraska | Nevada | New Jersey | New Mexico | New York | North Dakota | Ohio | Pennsylvania | Rhode Island | Tennessee | Texas | Utah | Vermont | Virginia | Washington | West Virginia | Wisconsin | Wyoming |

Arizona

Incumbent Senator Sinema (DI-AZ) is stepping down in January 2025, rather than risk being voted out, leaving this an open seat. As primaries have not been held in this State, it’s difficult to discuss the race. At present, Rep Ruben Gallego (D-AZ) is considered a lock for the Democratic nomination, but the Republican nomination is decidedly, ah, undecided. The best known Republican candidate is former broadcast anchor, failed candidate for Governor, and election-denier Kari Lake (R-AZ), but whether or not a candidate who was actively booed by her own Party at a convention can still win the nomination is open for debate. Further sinking her cause is the waning of support from presumptive Presidential nominee Mr. Trump. Having been rejected once in a State-wide race, the omens are not good for a second State-wide race.

Overall, it’s noteworthy that a conservative State such as Arizona has two Senators who were Democrats when elected; Sinema has since moved to the Independent column. Sinema was elected in 2018, unseating appointed incumbent Senator McSally (R-AZ), who replaced the deceased Senator McCain (R-AZ). Sinema won by 2.4 points. A Green Party candidate won 2.4% of the vote as well, suggesting Sinema’s final tally, if the Green Party had not run a candidate, might have been north of 4 points, even closer to 5.

Senator Kelly (D-AZ) was elected to an open seat in 2022, and his victory margin over Blake Masters (R-AZ) was nearly 5 points. While some of that is a reflection of the poor quality, in my judgment, of Mr Masters, it’s still true that a conservative state electing a Democrat as Senator is indicative of a State moving left.

Look for Rep Gallego to defeat whoever his opponent might be. The recent Arizona Supreme Court decision approving an ancient abortion ban as still effective has left Arizona Republicans quite vulnerable to angry pro-choice forces, since the Arizona Supreme Court is entirely made up of Republicans; this remains true despite Arizona’s Legislature moving to mitigate the ban.

California

This is the late Senator Feinstein’s (D-CA) seat, and, since her death, it has been filled by Laphonza Butler (D-CA). Butler is not running in the election, making this an open seat.

This contest features cries of hypocrisy and manipulation on both sides. California uses the jungle primary model, in which an all-inclusive primary has been held, and the top two contenders, regardless of party affiliation, are promoted to the final. On the Democratic side, the prominent contenders were Rep Adam Schiff (D-CA), who was a leading member of Congress in impeaching President, at the time, Trump (R), and Rep Katie Porter (D-CA), who, in her short time in Congress, has built a reputation for being an effective griller of witnesses.

The accusations flew when Schiff’s campaign began promoting the campaign of baseball great Steve Garvey, running as a Republican. The strategy is to promote an unelectable Republican into the final and avoiding a contest with a solid opponent, such as Rep Porter.

All that said, it’s not clear that Garvey will be easily defeated. It’s Schiff vs. Garvey. Getting information on Garvey is not easy. His financial history does appear to be somewhat checkered.

And neither Porter nor the Republicans are happy about this strategy. There have been no failures in this strategy in its use over the years of which I know, but it has an element of hypocrisy to it.

Still, look for the phrase “Senator Schiff today said …” in the future. It is California, after all, and Schiff is a solid politician.

Connecticut

Incumbent Senator Chris Murphy (D-CT) won his reelection race in 2018 by 20 points. He’s running again, and there seems little reason to think whoever he faces, which remains undetermined, will come within 10 points. There are no recent polls that I, or DuckDuckGo, can see as of yet.

Delaware

Incumbent Senator Tom Carper (D-DE) is retiring at the end of this term, leaving an open seat, and primaries are not until September 10. No recent polls appear to be available for Brown and Rochester on the Democratic side, nor for Taylor and Hansen on the Republican side.

But this is Delaware. Carper won his last reelection race by 22 points. It’ll be a big surprise if Carper’s successor is a Republican.

Florida

Incumbent Senator Rick Scott (R-FL), not yet confirmed in a primary, is defending his seat against Rep Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (D-FL), also not yet confirmed. Assuming they both win their primaries, the closest thing to a current poll comes from The Hill:

A survey from the left-leaning firm Public Policy Polling, paid for by EMILY’s List and first shared with The Hill, shows Scott leading Mucarsel-Powell 44 percent to 41 percent. Because the margin of error is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points, the two are effectively tied.

Because of chronic Republican underperformance compared to predictive polls, this poll suggests Mucarsel-Powell is very much in contention.

But I learned something else during research on Senator Scott: he’s not getting a free pass in the primary. Instead, he has a number of Republican opponents, six at the moment, that he must best. While I’m sure he will, it does speak to Republican dissatisfaction with the Senator, who has recently been responsible for Republican Congressional election strategy, and has made some misstatements concerning social nets for the aged that may hit his constituents hard.

And in his last election, in 2018, he won with 50.1% of the vote, while his opponent, former Senator Bill Nelson (D-FL), lost with 49.9% of the vote. Too close for comfort.

On the other side of the aisle, Mucarsel-Powell is the pick of Democratic Party officials as the Democrat most likely to beat Scott. Her decision to toss her hat in the ring may have been a cause of celebration in Florida Democratic circles.

I look forward to seeing this contest.

Hawaii

Senator Mazie Hirono (D-HI) is running for reelection, having won in 2018 by a margin in excess of 40 points. In 2022, her colleague Senator Brian Schatz (D-HI) won by a similar margin.

This would appear to be a very safe seat for the Democrats.

Indiana

On The Issues – Rep Jim Banks (R-IN).

Incumbent Senator Mike Braun (R-IN) is retiring at the end of this term. On the Republican side, Rep Jim Banks (R-IN) is the only remaining candidate in the primary race, for which the election is May 7th, and we can assume he’ll be the Republican nominee. He’s had three terms in the House of Representatives, so he’s moderately experienced, which is sometimes a negative for Republican voters, but he’s definitely a conservative, as can be seen to the right. Braun’s election run for an open Senate seat in 2018 resulted in a victory by six points, which is not overwhelming, but, unless Banks has some scandal attached to his name yet to be publicized, it should be enough in this highly conservative state.

In the absence of a prominent Indiana Democratic candidate, which seems to be true, Rep Banks should soon get to change his title to Senator Banks.

Maine

Incumbent Angus King (I-ME) is running for reelection against a Republican and a Democrat who have no elective seats between them. In 2018, King faced a Republican and a Democrat and racked up more than 50% of the vote. That may be the question for the Maine Independent: Can he do it again?

If he appears to have a serious challenger I’ll update a post, otherwise expect this Democratic-leaning Independent to cruise to another term in the Senate.

Maryland

The retirement of Senator Cardin (D-MD) and the candidacy of the anomalously popular moderate Republican and former governor Larry Hogan (R-MD) to replace him makes Maryland an unexpected battleground. If you’re unfamiliar with the contest, in which primary elections have not been held, the Baltimore Sun has a summary:

David Trone, a multimillionaire who has spent more than $40 million in Maryland’s U.S. Senate race, has opened a wide gap between himself and Angela Alsobrooks for the Democratic nomination, a new poll from The Baltimore Sun, FOX45 and the University of Baltimore found.

But either would lose to former Republican Gov. Larry Hogan in the general election if it were held now, according to the poll’s sample of nearly 1,300 likely voters. Hogan’s popularity suggests Maryland, where registered Democrats outnumber Republicans by more than 2-to-1, will be a battleground in the national parties’ push to win a majority in the narrowly divided Senate.

There is, no doubt, a lesson in the fact that a moderate Republican is kicking the shit out of the best the Democrats can offer in a Democrat-leaning state, but since I’m not on the ground in Maryland and I do not have any Maryland contacts, I couldn’t really say.

Massachusetts

In blue Massachusetts, Senator Warren (D-MA) is up for reelection. In 2018, she won reelection by 24 points. In 2023 there appears to have been a smattering of polls showing Warren trailing potential opponents, but there’s nothing of the sort of late, and those “reports” may have been fake news. MassLive says,

The general election is still months away, but Democratic U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Warren holds a commanding lead in Massachusetts’ nationally watched, and still developing, U.S. Senate race.

We’ll have to wait for fresh polls and the selection of a Republican opponent.

At the moment I expect Warren to be a safe pick, but information is still scarce.

Michigan

The upcoming retirement of Senator Stabenow (D-MI) creates a race for an open seat. For the Democrats, it appears former CIA analyst Rep Elissa Slotkin (D-MI) is the favorite for the nomination, while the Republicans appear to have a variety of former elected officials to choose from, such as Justin Amash, Peter Meijer, and Mike Rogers. The first two (well, just Amash now that Meijer has dropped out) are more moderates than far-right extremists, while On The Issues suggests Rogers is more hard-core. Relative to other states, it’s an impressive array of experience and talent.

That said, the Michigan Republican Party has been in robust disarray, featuring far-right extremists holding the chairmanship and other positions, when they’re not in active, fourth-rater warfare with each other, so whether a moderate can win the nomination is an open question with a potentially repulsive answer. The candidate ultimately put forth by the Michigan Republicans, even if not burdened with lawsuits from disappointed rivals – there’s ten candidates as of this writing! – may hold such extreme views on reproductive issues as to make them unelectable.

Finally, the last contest for Michigan Senator was in 2020 and resulted in Gary Peters (D-MI) defeating John James (R-MI) by less than 2 points.

The two major parties have a lot of work to do. I suspect the Republican mountain, given the immaturity of the party’s behavior, is a lot higher, but not insurmountable.

Minnesota

As much as Minnesota is considered purplish, there is little doubt that Senator Klobuchar (D-MN), up for reelection, is one of the State’s most popular politicians. She won reelection 2018 by 24 points. Along with her professional qualifications, her late father was a locally famous newspaper columnist, Jim Klobuchar. Perhaps that’s enough to make the case she’ll retain her position in November.

But it’s also worth noting the last Senatorial race in the state. When Governor Walz was faced with the need to appoint a successor for Senator Franken (D-MN) after Franken’s resignation, he selected his Lt. Governor, Tina Smith (D-MN). She was little known outside of political circles, but when it came time for the special election in 2020, she ran and won, beating Karin Housley (R-MN), wife of hockey great Phil Housley, which is a thing in Minnesota, and an experienced politician in her own right, having won election several times to the Minnesota Senate. Housley was not seen as a pushover.

Smith won by an impressive eleven points.

Primaries have not been held, but looking at the Republican field does not inspire thoughts of a monumental upset. Look for Klobuchar to win in November, unless she has to shift gears into a Presidential race. That becomes dicey.

Mississippi

Incumbent Senator Roger Wicker (R-MS) survived two primary challengers, winning 60% of the Republican primary vote, to move on to the general election in November against Democratic challenger Ty Pinkins (D-MS). Pinkins had a 20+ year Army career and holds several degrees from Georgetown in law and government.

On The Issues – Senator Roger Wicker.

Will Pinkins’ qualifications help him overcome Wicker’s incumbency? Will Wicker’s hard-right ideology cripple his reelection campaign against a fresh face and a different set of ideas concerning how to run government? There are no polls as of yet, so the safe bet is Wicker, who last won reelection by almost 20 points back in 2018, in what has been traditionally a Republican state. But this could change in Mississippi.

Missouri

Senator Josh Hawley (R-MO) is running for reelection in Missouri. In the primary he’s currently facing one opponent, Christopher Murphy (R-MO); the Democrats will have five candidates for the nomination in the primary. I recall Lucas Kunce (D-MO) from the 2022 primary for the Missouri Senate seat then up for grabs, where he lost in the primary to Trudy Busch Valentine (D-MO); she, in turn, went on to lose to State AG Eric Schmitt (R-MO) in the general by 13 points. Kunce is, I think, the favorite among observers to win the Democratic nomination.

The winning margin may be closer for Hawley, a national laughingstock, than for Schmitt, but my expectation is that Missourians will rally behind Hawley, if only to avoid admitting their blunder in electing Hawley, as well-known election denier and hallway runner, to the Senate in 2018. Ads such as this one may cut into Hawley’s incumbency advantage.

Axios also trumpeted Kunce’s donation total, but voters are the decisive force, not those who donate. I’ll believe Kunce, or whoever beats him in the primary, is someone to contend with once the polls come out saying so, and not before.

Montana

On The Issues: Senator Jon Tester (D-MT).

In Montana we come to the curious case, akin to that of former Governor Larry Hogan (R-MD), of Senator Jon Tester (D-MT). The Senator, who is running for reelection, is a Democrat in a strongly Republican state. He is a long-time politico, serving in the State legislature before moving to the US Senate in 2006, so Montanans knows the nature of the beast for which they vote.

And what is that nature? On The Issues summarized it in the graphic to the right: He’s not even a moderate, as might be expected. But he seems to have made a connection to his constituents, resulting in a 3+ point victory in his last election of 2018. That margin is not unusual for his Senate runs.

His opponent is yet to be determined, but I recognized none of the names except Tim Sheehy, who has little political experience, yet seems to be considered the favorite, although a scandal regarding a bullet wound may dog him in the primaries. If Sheehy loses the primary, former Secretary of State Brad Johnson (R-MT) would appear to be in line to take the nomination, with competition from third candidate Charles A. Walking Child. Whether any of these three represent real competition for Tester is yet to be seen.

Tester may also be bolstered by a potential reminder on the ballot, as an abortion rights amendment drive is currently gathering signatures. If it makes the ballot, Tester’s pro-choice position may give him an irrecoverable advantage in this race.

Nebraska

Nebraska is a two-fer. First, in the regularly scheduled competition, Senator Deb Fischer (R-NE) faces no Democratic competition in her reelection run as of yet, although there is still time to enter.

It’s madness to permit Senator Fischer to coast to reelection. The Nebraska Democrats should be severely punished, by something other than their consciences, for this slip-up.

In a special election for former Senator Sasse’s (R-NE) seat, appointee Senator Pete Ricketts (R-NE) is running in the primary against two unrecognized names, while the Democrats, apparently made up of a single person, have the inexperienced Preston Love Jr. (D-NE) as the only candidate in the primary.

In the absence of contrary polling data, it seems likely that Ricketts will win his first election to the Senate.

Nevada

On The Issues: Sam Brown (R-NV).

Incumbent Jacky Rosen (D-NV), who defeated incumbent Senator Dean Heller (R-NV) in 2018 by five points, is running for reelection, and this year’s opponent has not been determined; indeed, Rosen has primary opponents to face as well, although neither seem particularly threatening.

Rosen’s most likely Republican opponent is thought to be Sam Brown (R-NV), who competed in the 2022 race for the Senate; he lost in the primary to Adam Laxalt (R-NV), a known extremist who just barely lost to incumbent Senator Masto (D-NV). Whether Rosen can repeat her 2018 performance is unclear, although I suspect voters, both independents and moderate Republicans, will tire of Brown’s highly conservative ideology, which is illustrated to the right; Brown may suffer from Republican infighting, as this ad suggest Sam Brown is a “swamp creature”. If the accuser, Jeff Gunter (R-NV), wins the primary, the Brown voters may refuse to vote for Gunter.

This poll suggests Rosen and Brown’s approval ratings are similar.

New Jersey

As incumbent Senator Menendez (D-NJ) has announced he will be retiring from his seat in November in order to defend himself against corruption charges, and, no doubt, in view of his poor showing in polls, this race will be for an open seat. However, he may still run as an independent, and this article gives polling results when Menendez is running in a field of probable opponents.

At present, with primaries still to come on June 4th, Rep Andy Kim (D-NJ) is thought to be the favorite among Democrats, while the Republican nominee doesn’t appear to be clear to New Jersey watchers.

In 2018, Menendez won by twelve points. Between this being a blue state, the relative anonymity of the Republican possibilities, and the anger engendered by the Dobbs decision, I do not expect the Republicans to flip this seat.

New Mexico

Incumbent Senator Heinrich (D-NM) is running for reelection this year, with primaries still to come. So far, only Heinrich is in the Democrats’ primary, and the only Republican is Nella Domenici (R-NM). Senator Heinrich won his 2018 election by more than 23 points, and Domenici has little applicable experience.

It seems safe to assume Heinrich should win this race.

New York

Incumbent Senator Gillibrand (D-NY), who in 2018 won reelection by 34 points, seems to be a shoe-in regardless of who the Republicans nominate, which is not yet known. I do not recognize any other names among the primary challengers for either nomination.

North Dakota

Senator Cramer (R-ND), incumbent and member of the Senate leadership team, defeated incumbent Senator Heidi Heitkamp (D-ND) by nearly 11 points back in 2018.

That’s a lot.

His opponent is Katrina Christiansen (D-ND), who ran against Senator Hoeven (R-ND) two years ago and lost; outside of Dobbs, there’s little reason to think she’ll best Senator Cramer and the power of the incumbency.

Ohio

In Ohio we have another anomaly, as incumbent Senator Sherrod Brown (D-OH) is running for reelection in a State generally considered to be conservative. Rep Tim Ryan (D-OH) ran for the other Ohio Senate seat two years ago, and lost despite a fine reputation and being known.

Brown, of course, as the incumbent is in a stronger position than Ryan, who was looking for a promotion. But will that be enough to defeat his opponent, Bernie Moreno (R-OH)? Brown was not challenged in the primary, so his finances are not as strained as Moreno’s might be. Moreno faced and defeated two opponents in the primary.

More interestingly, Moreno only received 49% of the votes, which suggests a lot of doubts among the faithful who vote in the primary. How will that translate to the general election? Will Republicans “Fall in line?” Moreno is Trump endorsed, and while that’s harmless in red states, Ohio is more purplish than red – and Moreno was the candidate who had the benefit of Democrats boosting him in the primary, as the least likely to beat Brown.

This should be a very interesting race. I think Brown has a chance, he may even be favored, but Moreno will also have a chance. Will the Trump curse sink him?

Pennsylvania

Pennsylvania is another State that has seemed to lean Republican but has a Democratic Senator or two. In this case, the incumbent is Senator Bob Casey, Jr (R-PA), who is running for reelection and faced no opposition in the primary.

Casey’s rival is David McCormick (R-PA?). Close readers will note the ‘?’, indicating that Mr McCormick may be another out of state candidate, but it’s not clear. Long term readers and those paying attention to politics may remember Mr McCormick ran for the other Pennsylvania Senator seat two years ago, but was defeated in the primary by Oz Mehmet (R-PA?), aka TV’s Dr. Oz. Much like Casey, he faced no opposition in this year’s primary.

But the general campaign is not off to an encouraging start. Between an incumbent opponent with reasonable approval ratings and a victory in 2018 of 13 points, the Dobbs decision, a scandal involving his hedge fund and China, a Trump endorsement, and, in a just released CBS poll, a 7 point deficit, plus chronic overperformance vs polls by Democrats, McCormick’s mountain is looking quite steep, despite Republican estimations that this seat might be flipped. They may be basing their hopes on McCormick’s greater access to resources; however, resources are not everything. At least some voters are offended by mendacity and a lack of authenticity.

I’ll be surprised if Casey loses this race.

Rhode Island

In Rhode Island incumbent Senator Whitehouse (D-RI) is running for reelection. He won in 2018 by 23 points, and in 2020 his fellow Senator Reed (D-RI) won by 33 points. Regardless of who is the opposition, undetermined at this time, it’d be the shock of the year if Whitehouse were to lose.

Tennessee

Incumbent Marsha Blackburn is running for reelection. Primaries have not been held, and they’re contested in both the Democratic and Republican columns, but there doesn’t seem to be a reason to expect the Senator to lose the primary.

In the last two Senatorial races, the Republicans have won by roughly eleven points. Can Tennessee Democrats make up that much ground?

Doubtful. Perhaps it’ll be a horse race, but it’ll be Senator Blackburn in the end.

Texas

Texas Senator Ted Cruz (R-TX) happens to be a Senator with a 38 point disapproval rating, one of the highest in the country. Will this quash his reelection run? His opponent is Rep Colin Allred (D-TX), an experienced Congressional representative. This poll suggests Cruz is safe. Until polls come out suggesting otherwise, I’ll consider the Republican safe as well.

Utah

Senator Mitt Romney (R-UT), prominent Trump critic, is retiring, but this is Utah, not a purple state. I have little doubt that the June 25th Republican primary will select the future Senator from Utah.

Vermont

Vermont’s Senator Bernie Sanders (I-VT) is running for reelection. As he caucuses with Democrats in the US Senate, Vermont Democrats are refraining from nominating a competitor.

The Republican challenger appears likely to be Peter Welch Gerald Malloy (R-VT), who also ran in 2022, and was crushed.

Look for Sanders to win reelection.

Virginia

Senator Tim Kaine (D-VA), former candidate for Vice President in 2016, is running for reelection. Assuming he wins the nomination, his record of winning the 2018 election by 16 points, and a reputation as being a very good Senator, suggests he has a very good chance of being re-elected.

Washington

Senator Cantwell (D-WA) is running for reelection. Washington features a jungle primary, in which a non-partisan primary leads to the top two finishers being promoted to the final. A November ’23 poll suggests Cantwell will dominate, but time is still passing.

Cantwell is the way to bet, though.

West Virginia

Senator Manchin (D-WV), sometimes more of a thorn in Democratic sides than Republicans’ for his advocacy for fossil fuels, is retiring. Given West Virginia’s conservative lean and resentment over the imminent loss of the coal mining industry, the biggest mystery is how Manchin has managed to get himself elected; by the same token, for most pundits the only question is who will be the Republican candidate, and the size of their winning margin in the general election.

For my money, it’ll be former Democrat and former governor Jim Justice (R-WV), and he’ll win by 15 points. It seems to be nearly as certain as shooting fish in a barrel.

Poor fish.

Wisconsin

On The Issues: Senator Baldwin (D-WI).

Wisconsin voters seems to be of two minds. On the one hand, Senator Johnson (R-WI) is a far right extremist loon who appears to be suffering from a touch of dementia. On the other hand, Senator Baldwin (D-WI) appears to be a far-left extremist, as can be seen to the right.

Senator Baldwin is up for reelection, not Senator Johnson.

A recent CBS poll gives Baldwin a 7 point lead over Eric Hovde, a rich, out of state contender who appears to have some views that are out of the mainstream. Hovde still awaits the primaries, though, so the story can still change.

I suspect Wisconsinites will prefer the Senator they know to the far right extremist, and Baldwin is popular, winning by 11 points in 2018. I expect Baldwin to work hard and win big.

Wyoming

In ruby red Wyoming, Senator Barrasso (R-WY), supposedly the most popular Senator, is running for reelection, and barring a shock in the primary, should win easily. Heck, according to Ballotpedia there isn’t even a Democratic contender.

No drama here.

The tale of the tape:

• Democratic & leaning seats: 19
• Safe Democratic seats: 14
• Republican seats: 11
• Safe Republican seats: 10

The question in the above is where is a safe seat not safe? Some folks think that Republican Senators Scott (FL) and Cruz (TX) are vulnerable. And then there’s the Democratic overperformance at the ballot box compared to the polls, which could result in upsets.

Or are Democrats overconfident that Biden’s exceptionally competent management and leadership will help them overcome other missteps? Is the Hamas mass kidnapping event and Israeli response really going to destroy the Democrats? Their mismanagement of the transgender issue?

I’ll try to keep an eye on polls and news.

Craton:

A craton is a large, coherent domain of Earth’s continental crust that has attained and maintained long-term stability, having undergone little internal deformation, except perhaps near its margins due to interaction with neighbouring terranes. Stable continental crust is an end product of intense magmatic, tectonic, and metamorphic reworking; hence, cratons consist of polydeformed and metamorphosed crystalline and metamorphic rocks (e.g., typically “granite-greenstone terrains” in the most ancient cratons). [astrophysics data system]

Noted in “Why supersonic, diamond-spewing volcanoes might be coming back to life,” Robin George Andrews, NewScientist (23 March 2024, paywall):

There was just one problem. Almost all kimberlites are found within cratons, the colossal, 200-kilometre-thick cores of continents, which don’t experience [the rifts caused by continental breakups]. Cratons are several billion years old. Even when supercontinents are broken, these cores remain intact. That meant kimberlite magmas picked the thickest, toughest parts of the continents to puncture through – the path of most resistance – something most eruptive activity tends to avoid.

Harry Potter and the Sorcerer’s Stone (2001), the first of the Harry Potter series, is a special effects tour de force for its era, and functions as a morality and inspirational tale, teaching that those who are pure of heart, and never give up, can accomplish wonderful things. How well it stacks up against the novels of the same name is not within my ken, seeing as I’ve never read the novels. I’ve read too much fantasy as it is.

If you’ve somehow never seen it, it’s worth a gander. Unless you’re goth and, thus, hopelessly cynical.

Keeping the herd together by the use of moral condemnation, Erick Erickson, back on Thursday, has a solemn pronouncement:

While most media headlines today are about Sam Bankman-Fried’s sentencing, Ronna McDaniel’s next move, or the fallout from the bridge collapse in Baltimore, today will be one of the most consequential days in the 2024 presidential election. Joe Biden is screwing up Manhattan traffic with a fundraiser featuring Barack Obama and Bill Clinton that should clear his campaign upwards of $25 million.

Meanwhile, Donald Trump will be attending the wake of 31-year-old NYPD officer Jonathan Diller on Long Island. Diller was murdered by a career criminal with 21 prior arrests who viciously gunned him down during a routine traffic stop. Diller leaves behind a wife and one-year-old child named Ryan.

The campaign split screen happening in New York is emblematic of how voters increasingly view this race. Joe Biden fundraises with millionaires and billionaires in Manhattan while refusing to say the names of the 13 fallen Marines in Kabul or Laken Riley in Athens who died as a result of his policies. As Trump sits at an NYPD funeral at the request of the family, Joe Biden is attempting to push through a radical judicial nominee who serves on the board of an anti-police nonprofit organization.

Erickson’s got a small problem. Solemn Pronouncements don’t work if your “facts” aren’t. For example, at the State of the Union, he said the name Laken Riley. Anyone who tries to verify Erickson’s statement will discover it to be false.

Similarly, Biden attended the return of the Marines lost to our enemies in Afghanistan during the evacuation:

On Aug. 29, President Joe Biden paid his respects to U.S. service members who were killed in a terrorist attack at the Kabul airport. The president and first lady Jill Biden bowed and placed their hands over their hearts as 11 caskets were presented at Dover Air Force Base in Delaware. …

The full video of the dignified transfer ceremony shows Biden honored each of the fallen U.S. service members. [USA Today]

He was there, he honored those who fell because of the former President’s decision to sign a legally binding treaty requiring the United States to leave. Through this act, he honored those fallen heroes.

And, finally, it only takes a little thought to realize that blaming Biden for a bloodthirsty criminal’s actions is intellectually dishonest. If Trump had the opportunity to jail this killer, why didn’t he? Should we blame the lack of the wall when those parts of the wall that have been built by Trump turned out to be a waste? Would he be to blame for a bad wall?

The fact is that, in what some call “this fallen world,” terrible things happen, and sometimes policy is ineffective, whether it’s Democratic policy regarding immigrants or Republican policies regarding gun control. Thoughts and prayers simply do not work. And, yet, each side is willing to take some losses while pursuing their favored policies.

So what of Erickson’s claim about the money raised by the three Presidents? The Radio City Music Hall event was exceedingly popular:

Barack Obama, Bill Clinton and some big names from the entertainment world teamed up Thursday night to deliver a rousing New York embrace of President Joe Biden that hauled in a record-setting $26 million-plus for his reelection campaign.

The mood at Radio City Music Hall was electric as Obama praised Biden’s willingness to look for common ground and said, “That’s the kind of president I want.” Clinton said simply of the choices facing voters in 2024: “Stay with what works.” [AP]

Erickson may be right: $26 million is not peanuts. That Biden didn’t cancel a long planned event is no surprise; if the Diller family had invited President Biden to the funeral, he probably have tried to attend.

But trying to turn this into a question of morality is ruined by Erickson’s own lack of a connection reverence for truth. The truly sad part is that Erickson has expressed dismay concerning Trump and his allies from time to time, so why can’t he be consistent in this dismay and become a NeverTrumper?

Because of Erickson’s addiction to his sides control of power.

Daily Kos‘ NebraskaDemocrat has a soothing claim:

Another symptom of Trump fatigue is that [Trump’s VP] Mike Pence has declined to endorse his candidacy. In addition, 41 out of 44 Trump cabinet members have declined to endorse him. These are the people who know Trump best. This gives millions of Republicans a permission slip to not vote for Trump in November.

[My bold.] Unfortunately, no source for this claim is given. Still, that even one has outright spoken out against Mr. Trump and his winning reelection – former Chief of Staff John Kelly, for instance – is unprecedented in my lifetime. And I don’t know if all of the Republicans understand this, but the sad tragedy in Baltimore this week, of the container ship Dali knocking down the Francis Scott Key Bridge and killing six construction workers, is doubly a disaster for the Republicans. A big ship loses power, hits the Key Bridge, knocks it over and kills some construction workers, and – worst for Republicans – knocks an important Port offline.

None of this is the fault of Democratic President Biden nor his allies, inside or outside of Congress.

But it is Biden’s responsibility to keep the Nation running as smoothly as possible, and this is a situation where Biden has an opportunity to shine. If my reader remembers Hurricane Katrina of 2005, the bungled response of the Republican Bush 43 Administration was another blot on an Administration that was not only discredited for incompetency and political favoritism, but was replaced by the Democratic Obama Administration, and in the same election Democrats completed their takeover of Congress, begun in 2006.

Biden is reportedly smarter than Bush in this respect, having hired competent administrators for posts such as Secretary of Transportation. The Biden Administration, having experience in untangling supply chains by motivating Ports to move faster after the Covid pandemic, and as Professor Richardson notes,

Perhaps learning from the 2023 East Palestine, Ohio, train derailment, when the government response was fast but quiet and thus opened a window for right-wing complaints they weren’t doing enough, the administration was out front today. Buttigieg rushed to the scene from a trip out West, and Maryland governor Wes Moore told reporters Buttigieg had called him at 3:30 am, just two hours after the crash.

By around 6:00 am, the National Transportation Safety Board already had a team of 24 people on the scene to launch an investigation into the cause of the collision.

Speaking today, President Joe Biden said: “I’ve directed my team to move heaven and earth to reopen the port and rebuild the bridge as soon as…humanly possible. And we’re going to work hand in hand…to support Maryland, whatever they ask for. And we’re going to work with our partners in Congress to make sure the state gets the support it needs. It’s my intention that federal government will pay for the entire cost of reconstructing that bridge, and I expect…the Congress to support my effort.”

And Republicans have tried to turn this disaster to their advantage, blaming it on … governors who prioritize diversity, a particularly juvenile and crass statement of … DEI did this, referencing a left-wing initiative commonly called diversity, equity, and inclusiveness, and the heretofore invisible Senator Schmitt (R-MO), who I had to look up:

Republican Senator Eric Schmitt addresses misinformation on the bridge collapse: the problem here this is the consequence, this distrust of terrible leadership when you have an administration that has weaponized the department of justice. pic.twitter.com/9gh4v85z4M

— Acyn (@Acyn) March 26, 2024

Republican Senator Eric Schmitt addresses misinformation on the bridge collapse: the problem here this is the consequence, this distrust of terrible leadership when you have an administration that has weaponized the department of justice.

For those who are solid members of the MAGA base, this is all followed by a head nod. The rest of us? At both best and worst, they’ll be muttering Where’s your evidence? while the rest of us just shake our heads at the repetitious incompetence and clumsy attempts at politicizing a disaster.

And, I must say, Senator Schmitt appears to be particularly clumsy and ill-suited for the job of being a Senator.

Last word I heard was that the Biden Administration was rushing equipment to the scene to help remove debris in order to get the Port reopened, including large helicopters. Because I’m feeling ungracious at the moment, I predict some Republican official will ask why these helicopters weren’t allocated to the effort:

Competency from the Biden Administration, properly messaged and honestly covered by the media, may be a big nail in the Republican coffin of 2024. Between the Freedom Caucus in the House and a portfolio of weak Senators in the Senate, the Republicans are fielding one of the weakest Republican teams in recent times, possibly even worse than those in the 2006 elections, in which

Democrats defeated 22 Republican incumbents and won eight open Republican-held seats. For the first time since the party’s founding, Republicans won no seats previously held by Democrats and defeated no Democratic incumbents.

While many pundits are still hung up on the Trump base, the age of Biden without considering the age of Trump and his concomitant imbecilic behaviors, I’m looking at trends: Trump’s many legal liabilities, shocking record of brazen mendacity, record of corruption, record of incompetence, questions about his wealth, his record as a grifter, and etc, while Biden’s record since taking office, such as excellent messaging, superb economic progress, fast and competent response to incidents, response to Putin’s War (Ukraine invasion), the difficult problem of the Middle East, the excellent folks he’s hired; to summarize, how the trends are positive for Biden, while negative for Trump.

All of this makes me ask what most will call the impossible: Will this be Nixon vs McGovern (1972) all over again, with Biden in the Nixon role as the guy who wins with a record of 49 States to McGovern’s 1 State?

Of course not. All those pundits will tell you that we’re all too polarized for that to happen.

Repeat after me: All those pundits …

OK, it won’t happen. Idaho and North Dakota are full of arrogant right-wingers who simply don’t understand the poor quality of most Republican candidates.

But those two States won’t be enough. I’m looking at Biden winning two, perhaps three more States than last time. And the last weeks of the campaign will be peppered by Republican accusations that Biden was in the Dali’s wheelhouse, even at the helm, when the tragic crash occurred.

Because that’s how surreal the far-right has become.

Parker Spiral:

The heliospheric current sheet, or interplanetary current sheet, is a surface separating regions of the heliosphere where the interplanetary magnetic field points toward and away from the Sun. A small electrical current with a current density of about 10⁻¹⁰ A/m² flows within this surface, forming a current sheet confined to this surface. The shape of the current sheet results from the influence of the Sun’s rotating magnetic field on the plasma in the interplanetary medium. The thickness of the current sheet is about 10,000 km (6,200 mi) near the orbit of the Earth. [Wikipedia]

Accompanying the above is this cool depiction:

Noted on Spaceweather.com under the heading Sizzling Sunspot:

Any eruptions this weekend could have a strong effect on Earth. Sunspots located near the sun’s western limb are magnetically connected to our planet via the Parker Spiral. If AR3615 erupts while it is transiting this “danger zone,” energetic protons and electrons may be funneled back toward Earth for a solar radiation storm. Stay tuned!

I’m a little surprised at the naiveté displayed by some financial commentators concerning the market cap of the company associated with stock symbol TMTG on the markets. In case you’re not familiar with Digital World Acquisition and its acquisition of, or merger with, Trump Media & Technology Group, here’s Adam Lashinsky at WaPo:

The next step for Sam Bankman-Fried is an unhappy one for him and his family:

FTX co-founder Sam Bankman-Fried will serve 25 years in prison after being convicted of defrauding his customers, investors, and lenders.

The man who presided over the largest crypto collapse in history received his sentence Thursday in a Manhattan federal court from US Judge Lewis Kaplan, who presided over Bankman-Fried’s trial last fall.

He faced up to 110 years. Prosecutors argued for a sentence of 40 to 50 years, while Bankman-Fried’s lawyers asked for six and a half years. [yahoo! finance]

What’s to say? Narcissism and consequential arrogance gets its comeuppance.

Along the intellectual path of goat entrails and special elections, ruby red Alabama had a special election yesterday, and its results must have left Republicans a little aghast.

An Alabama Democrat who campaigned aggressively on abortion access won a special election in the state Legislature on Tuesday, sending a message that abortion remains a winning issue for Democrats, even in the deep South.

Marilyn Lands won a state House seat in a rare competitive race to represent a district that includes parts of Huntsville. Lands, a mental health professional, centered her bid on reproductive rights and criticized the state’s near-total abortion ban along with a recent state Supreme Court ruling that temporarily banned in vitro fertilization. [Politico]

Competitive, yes, but …

Lands ran for the seat in 2022 and lost by 7 points to Republican David Cole, who resigned last year after pleading guilty to voter fraud.

Lands’ margin of victory? Almost 25 points. Sure, politics is generally local, and perhaps her opponent, Republican Teddy Powell, was a poor candidate – but a swing of some thirty points or more is not a mistake.

It’s more of a sign. In neon.

It’ll be interesting to keep an eye on Alabama and its local Republican Party, to see if SCOTUS‘ Dobbs decision, and the Alabama State Supreme Court’s threats to IVF, not to mention their clownish pair of Senators, Katie Britt (R-AL) of the State Of The Union Response Speech fame, and Tommy Tuberville, who endangered national security by holding up officer promotions in a temper tantrum over abortion services, suddenly transform Alabama into a purple State. Don’t forget, the last time the Republicans nominated a real clown for Senator, Judge Roy Moore, who was of a theocratic temperament and an alleged, but unproven so far as I know, sexual predator, Alabama voters narrowly rejected the Republican in favor of Doug Jones (D-AL).

In news that sounds like a joke, former Rep George Santos (R-NY), who has the sad distinction of having been expelled from Congress for a number of instances of lying and possible crimes, has said he’s running for re-election, citing perhaps the most ridiculous reason imaginable:

Embattled former Rep. George Santos, R-N.Y., said he is suspending his plans to run for reelection as a Republican and will instead run as an independent, blaming the shift on the “embarrassing showing in the House” Friday.

The House on Friday passed a $1.2 trillion spending package that would finally fund the federal government through the end of September, and Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, R-Ga., filed a motion to vacate against House Speaker Mike Johnson – the procedure that led to the ouster of former Speaker Kevin McCarthy.

After Friday, “I have reflected and decided that I can no longer be part of the Republican Party… The Republican Party continues to lie and swindle its voter base. I in good conscience cannot affiliate myself with a party that stands for nothing and falls for everything,” Santos said in a post on X.

“I will take my Ultra MAGA/Trump supporting values to the ballot in November as an Independent.” [USA Today]

Those last two paragraphs are just killer for me, because the essence of Santos and MAGA is lying and grifting. It’s the Theater of the Absurd.

But concerning matters for the electorate keep on coming. Erick Erickson, at the beginning of his “ministry’s” Holy Week, in which he prefers not to discuss politics, had this to say yesterday:

I see more and more right-of-center “influencers” trying to use God’s Word as a cudgel against their political opponents.

And here, he offers a video entitled Purging the Republican Grifters. Representatives Gallagher (R-WI) and Buck (R-CO) have not only announced their retirements, but their unexpected and abrupt resignations from Congress (the former on April 19th, the latter already accomplished), and their letters of announcement have indicated deep disgust with the bulk of the Republicans in the House.

Senator Lisa Murkowski (R-AL), long a target of right-wing extremist elements in the Alaska Republican Party, yet winner of her seat as a write-in candidate in 2010, which reflects her long-standing popularity and the disconnect between the Alaska Republican Party and Alaska’s electorate, recently expressed her disgust with the national Republican Party, hinting that she may leave the Party for independent status. Leaving the Party in disgust over its allegiance to Mr. Trump, as she puts it, isn’t unprecedented, but Senator Murkowski would certainly be the most prominent member to do so. Will there be more? Former US VP Mike Pence (R-IN) has remarked that he shan’t endorse his former boss, Mr. Trump, but has yet to walk away from the Party. I might have thought Senator McConnell (R-KY) would have done so, but so far he’s not exhibited the independence of thought to do so.

But he, as well as others, may be forcibly ejected from the Party, as Rep Greene (R-GA) has declared the necessity of purifying the Party of dissident elements, with the aforementioned Rep Gallagher (R-WI) perhaps one of her early scores.

Mr. Trump himself is doing poorly in one of the most important aspects of his appeal to voters, his constructed myth of being a successful, dominant businessman. Skipping all the details, Professor Richardson’s pithy summary of how his legal travails are going is the best that I’ve seen:

Trump made his political career on his image as a successful and fabulously wealthy businessman. Today, “Don Poorleone” trended on X (formerly Twitter).

It’s unsurprising that CNN ended up with a headline, which I cannot find at the moment, to the effect that Mr Trump says, oh, yes, he has $500 million available, even as his lawyers argue that he does not and thus should have the size of his bond reduced. It’s clear that wealth is the magic pixie dust for Mr. Trump’s base, at least in his own opinion.

If this all smells of a Republican Party that is falling apart, I agree. But there’s more, and of a nature that may come as a surprise. Professor Richardson mentions it:

This morning The Boeing Company announced that the chief of Boeing’s commercial airplane division, Stan Deal, is leaving immediately. Chief executive officer Dave Calhoun is stepping down at the end of the year. Chair of the board Larry Kellner will not stand for reelection.

On January 5 a door plug blew off a Boeing 737 Max jetliner operated by Alaska Airlines while it was in flight. The United States Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) immediately grounded about 170 similar Boeing planes operated by U.S. airlines or in U.S. territory until they could be inspected. “The FAA’s first priority is keeping the flying public safe,” it said, and added: “The safety of the flying public, not speed, will determine the timeline for returning the Boeing 737-9 MAX to service.”

Last year an FAA investigation “observed a disconnect between Boeing’s senior management and other members of the organization on safety culture,” with employees worrying about retaliation for reporting safety issues. After the door plug blew off, an FAA audit of different aspects of the production process released two weeks ago found that Boeing failed 33 of 89 product audits. On March 9, Spencer S. Hsu, Ian Duncan, and Lori Aratani of the Washington Post reported that the Justice Department had opened a criminal investigation into the door plug failure.

A disregard for product safety, and the safety regulations that lead to desirable results such as planes not falling out of the sky, is a classic sign of an untoward pursuit of wealth and the corporate results necessary for same. The departure of top executives from The Boeing Company, a storied corporation, under a cloud of dishonor, suggests that the negative public reaction to the perceived consequences is acting as a rebuff, even a rethink, of the importance of safety regulations.

“Regulation is evil” is a fundamental tenet of the Republican Party, so we can, with some skepticism, take the actions at Boeing to reflect evolving American attitudes: a concern that a rejection of regulation may be less than wise. Similarly, the case built by Democrats that investing dollars in the IRS will result in a positive return, while forcing millionaires and billionaires to pay their fair share, is a strong, if more indirect, rejection of the Republican Party tenet that taxation is evil.

All these together suggests we’re seeing a turning point in the political landscape. The substandard officials, both at the Federal and State levels, elected under the Republican banner, the Party chaos at both State and federal levels, the rejection of Republican tenets, the Dobbs decision and its crushing effects on Republican election results, fundamental disregard of democratic rights and norms, these are all acting together to outweigh Democratic blunders, such as botching the management of the transgenderism and border issues.

It’ll still take a catastrophic result to actually burn down the Republican Party, but I think that may occur in November. Large, unexpected losses in Congress, with elevated, unwarranted expectations assisted by Republican pollsters trying to encourage Republican voters, and Trump defeated by a large margin is where it starts. No doubt Mr Trump will be disgraceful in his loss. But, hopefully, actual violence will be limited and, more importantly, properly and publicly shamed by fellow citizens.

Only the compartmentalisation of information, both actively via conservative media, and passively through refusing to engage in active research, can save Republicans, in my opinion.

We may be seeing the beginning of the end of this incarnation of what was once, proudly, the Party of Lincoln.

Back in February, WaPo’s Travis Meier thinks his distaste for math qualifies him to judge the needs of society:

I’ve been sympathetic, if only contingently, to Republican squalling concerning Democratic meddling in Republican primary contests. Shouldn’t each Party be permitted to select its nominees without interference? There’s even a parallel to draw with the Russian interference in the 2016 and 2020 Presidential contests.

But E. J. Dionne, Jr. of WaPo brings a countering argument:

Is it a cougar following the high path?

Or just a squirrel pretending to be a miniature Bigfoot?

Do you remember Rep Buck’s (R-CO) prediction concerning the 118th Congress? Well, OK, I didn’t actually mention it before, so here it is:

What’s more, there’s no reason to assume that the list won’t grow: As the Post’s article added, Buck, whose last day is Friday [today], “warned that more resignations could be coming.” [Maddowblog]

And he was right:

Rep. Mike Gallagher, R-Wis., who announced last month he would not run for re-election, will resign from Congress early, he confirmed in a statement Friday. [NBC News]

Even more interesting:

Gallagher’s decision to leave April 19 also means that there will not be a special election to fill his seat. Under Wisconsin state law, vacancies after the second Tuesday in April are filled in the general election, so Gallagher’s replacement will be decided in November and his seat will remain empty until January.

My oh my, I’d call that a message sealed with flaming poo.

So, come April 13th, the Republican House advantage becomes 217-213, as Buck’s resignation becomes effective today for a 218-213 advantage and assuming no other effective events, but there’ll be no chance to recover from Gallagher’s resignation until the 119th Congress.

What is most interesting about this is that we now have three powers in the House, which has been true since the last Inauguration Day, but with the shrinking gap is becoming more and more critical. What are the powers?

1. Democratic members, who are currently highly disciplined, even unsettlingly well disciplined.
2. Freedom Caucus members, who need only abandon a Republican cause in very small numbers in order to sink it.
3. The balance of the Republican caucus, who have the same power as the Freedom Caucus. But do they know it, and are they willing to use it?

It’s getting cold in the Republican camp.

Of course, it’s a bit frustrating that Buck and Gallagher are unwilling to stay in Congress and vote against the nonsense, but the drama of actually resigning, of implicitly notifying the Freedom Caucus, and other extremists, that their behavior is unforgivable, has its own advantages. And if Speaker Johnson (R-LA) can be replaced with a Speaker sympathetic to our foreign policy needs, so much the better.

Will the resignations continue? Point to Buck for predicting someone would resign. But will he be right about more? Can Democrats flip those three Republican seats currently sitting empty while retaining the empty Democratic seat?

Ukraine’s government is watching with fierce attention, I’m sure. So, for that matter, is Putin.

Surety:

noun, plural sur·e·ties.

1. security against loss or damage or for the fulfillment of an obligation, the payment of a debt, etc.; a pledge, guaranty, or bond.
2. a person who is legally responsible for the debt, default, or delinquency of another.
3. a person who, as a sponsor, godparent, etc., has assumed or accepted responsibility for another’s debts or behavior.
4. the state or quality of being sure.
5. certainty.
6. something that makes sure; ground of confidence or safety.
7. assurance, especially self-assurance. [Dictionary.com]

Really? That word is overloaded. Noted in “New York attorney general disputes Trump’s claim that he can’t secure $464 million to post bond,” Graham Kates, CBS News:

[Dennis Fan, a senior assistant solicitor general for the state,] also briefly knocked many of the claims Trump made, noting that they’re not required to find just one underwriter to provide the entire bond, but instead can combine multiple sureties for the full total.

“Defendants’ argument that obtaining a full bond is purportedly impossible is based on the false premise that they must obtain a single bond from a single surety for the entire judgment amount of $464 million,” Fan wrote. “But appealing parties may bond large judgments by dividing the bond amount among multiple sureties, thereby limiting any individual surety’s risk to a smaller sum, such as $100 or $200 million apiece.”

DISASTER is when your spouse, her hands full, decides to try to open the gate with a karate kick, misses the latch completely, and loses her balance.

CATASTROPHE is when she drops the DQ ice cream cup she was carrying.

APOCALYPSE is when it lands upside down, in the sand.

EMBARRASSMENT is when it turns out you know all four of the horsemen that show up in response to her cursing, but you can’t remember the name of one of them. Was it Fred? John? Hildegaard? Damn, those skulls all look the same when the sky abruptly darkens and giants stride the Earth.

Gimme back our ice cream!

Waffel-frolic:

I suppose some might say archaic. To them, I say they have no sense of whimsy.

It’s political, but powerful.

Nous:

Nous, or Greek νοῦς (UK: /naʊs/,^[1] US: /nuːs/), sometimes equated to intellect or intelligence, is a concept from classical philosophy for the faculty of the human mind necessary for understanding what is true or real. [Wikipedia]

And then it goes on into neoplatonism. Another source keeps it simple and says

good judgment and practical ability:
Anyone with a bit of nous would have known what to do. [Cambridge Dictionary]

Noted in “Golden State Warriors defeat LA Lakers after ‘bizarre’ finale as arena announcer forced to announce shot clock,” Issy Ronald and Homero De la Fuente, CNN/Sports:

It had been a finely poised game throughout even after the Lakers had lost Davis and his defensive nous, which allowed the Warriors to attack more from inside the paint, racking up points in that area of the court.

I wonder if nous is acquiring another meaning.

… well, there is no such thing. Candidates are real people with mouths, experience, presented ideologies, and possibly hidden agendas, unmentioned crimes, and all that rot.

But if you want a generalization, far-right pundit Erick Erickson’s speaking a truth you’ll want to hear, in the context of the announced, but not yet accomplished, resignation of Rep Ken Buck (R-CO) from Congress:

[Buck’s] Heritage Action lifetime scorecard is 91%.

The Club For Growth rates him with a lifetime score of 98%.

CPAC gives him a lifetime rating of 97%.

But he is leaving Congress because Ken Buck has failed to dance like a chained monkey with cymbals for a base that wants entertainment instead of wins. The clown chorus of conservatism is vilifying a guy who has consistently voted for the conservative side over 90% of the time.

Those “scores” are only impressive to other, serious conservatives; for liberals, the effect is rather opposite. And the clown chorus of conservatives?

They’re, to be honest, the lost souls produced by a conservative movement that trained the base to not be serious. They are told to vote straight ticket, to win-win-win, to treat politics as a game, rather than a serious business. Primary candidates and their backers toss around ludicrous accusations, lies about themselves or their favored candidate, and pump up their own ego by repeated claims that their far-right extremist adversary is a Republican In Name Only (RINO), implying that the guy with white supremacist inclinations is … a … liberal.

Erickson’s divergence from reality is, as many pundits have pointed out, the adherence of today’s typical Republican to Mr. Trump and the power structure of their fellows in relationship to Mr. Trump. That’s their number one priority, and they’ve been trained for it, from their evangelical or libertarian roots to their shared victimhood to, I rather suspect, the government duplicity implicit in the Pentagon Papers (see their anti-vaccination attitudes).

Erickson wants to drag them back to a reality where the litmus test is not the loyalty to Mr. Trump, and the implicit criticisms of government and liberalism he embodies, but stances on abortion, imposition of other religious values, taxation, regulation, etc.

I do not think Erickson’s going to achieve that goal. The toxic culture which Gingrich, etc, have constructed for conservatives has produced a monster that will have to fall apart, as it seems to be doing, before Erickson can hope to have his conservatives back.

And it’s worth noting his rigidity on the matter, from above:

… who has consistently voted for the conservative side over 90% of the time.

It’s a statement that, if read closely and with no allowances for the sloppy expressions rife in blogging and, indeed, much of this era, entirely embodies an arrogance and a belief that this is all a game with a well-defined endpoint, rather than an enterprise of impressive complexity: governance.

Keep that in mind when reading any pundit, even an amateur such as myself.

Hycean:

A hycean planet (/ˈhaɪʃən/ HY-shən; portmanteau of hydrogen and ocean; note that the term is not capitalized) is a particular type of exoplanet that features a liquid water ocean under a hydrogen-rich atmosphere. [Wikipedia]

I wonder how many English words are portmanteaus. Noted in “Habitable ocean world K2-18b may actually be inhospitable gas planet,” Jonathan O’Callaghan, NewScientist (9 March 2024, paywall):

In 2015, astronomers discovered a planet 110 light years away called K2-18b, which later analysis estimated to be a super-Earth or mini-Neptune about eight times the mass of our world. Astronomers in 2019 then found evidence for water vapour on the planet. Since K2-18b is thought to be in the habitable zone of its star – the region in which water can exist as a liquid on the surface of a planet – that led to suggestions it might be an ocean world. Prospects were further buoyed by 2023 research finding evidence of dimethyl sulphide, a molecule that, on Earth, is only produced by life, particularly marine phytoplankton.

But now, Nicholas Wogan at the NASA Ames Research Center in California and his colleagues have re-analysed the planet using data from the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) and they suggest that the likelihood of the planet being a habitable ocean world is low. They say that an abundance of methane and carbon dioxide found by JWST points to the planet being a gas-rich mini-Neptune with no surface, rather than a habitable super-Earth with an ocean and sea floor, because such gases would be broken down by a chemical process called photolysis if it were an ocean or “hycean” world.

The Republicans entered the 118th Congress with a ten vote advantage in the House, 222 to 212 (one Democratic member-elect died prior to the opening of the 118th Congress, and was subsequently replaced by another Democrat). Since then, the Democrats have gained one vote to 213, and the Republicans have lost three votes to 219. Various special elections are in the offing.

And next week it could be 218, as Rep. Ken Buck (R-CO) has announced he’s resigning on March 22:

Republican Rep. Ken Buck of Colorado, a hardline conservative who has clashed with his own party at times, announced on Tuesday that he will leave Congress at the end of next week. [CNN/Politics]

His reason?

Buck criticized dysfunction on Capitol Hill in discussing his decision to leave, telling CNN’s Dana Bash, “It is the worst year of the nine years and three months that I’ve been in Congress and having talked to former members, it’s the worst year in 40, 50 years to be in Congress. But I’m leaving because I think there’s a job to do out there.”

“This place has just devolved into this bickering and nonsense and not really doing the job for the American people,” he said.

Chives. Sort like the stink bomb of politics. But tastier.

In other words, this far-right extremist Republican thinks the people’s business should be conducted, and it’s not. (See here for Senator Johnson’s (R-WI) incoherently ludicrous position on the matter.) He’s surrounded by incompetents and, well, people with which he disagrees.

The interesting part is that the gap is now only five seats. A few more resignations and we could see, if only briefly, a true Speaker Jeffries (D-NY). Or maybe seat flips, much like that of former Rep. George Santos (R-NY), now replaced by Rep Tom Suozzi (D-NY). in special elections, although there’s not quite enough seats up for grabs at the moment.

See, this is the problem with a Party that, while claiming it’s based on Christian principles, is truly based on libertarian principles of greed, of Gingrichian principles of stopping at nothing for a victory: the guiding impulse of immature people such as Gaetz, Greene, Boebert, Speaker Johnson, and many others come to the fore. What led them to their prestigious positions? Performative morality, behind which any old maneuver is hidden and acceptable. So they keep on riding the horse, expecting a victory, most importantly for themselves, and, as we are seeing in real-time, they are, instead, shredding each other and themselves.

There is a core of Republicans — let’s call them the earnest Republicans — who don’t like the greedy, self-centered types. They want to legislate, to deal with the emergencies and everyday business of the nation in a straightforward manner. Here they have an opportunity to deal a blow to the idiots they dislike, along with Republican Presidential nominee Mr Trump.

How?

By resigning en masse. This would permit the selection of a new Speaker as the majority shifted from Republicans to Democrats, and a Speaker Jeffries would immediately begin work on resolving the government funding issue, and funding military aid for Taiwan, Israel, and Ukraine, all critical American allies. These priorities, currently blocked by Speaker Johnson, are, for the most part, favored by the earnest Republicans. But he would have limited time, as special elections would probably put the Republicans back in the majority soon enough.

And it might be a politically fatal blow to Mr. Trump, beset as he is by legal troubles and his own political miscalculations. By showing their defiance effectively, his desperate attempts at having total control over the Republican Party would be very visibly rebuffed.

All that is required is Republican courage. Unfortunately, that’s in short supply these days.

But this scenario remains a possibility.

And it’s also true there are four special elections coming up, and while they may all be considered safe, a properly conducted campaign in each might bust them loose. But it remains true that three of the four are Republican seats, which means it’s likely only one will be won easily by Democrats.

But still, for those who like their drama, there’s some real potential here, initiated by Rep Buck.

The drama that is the hunt of Robin Vos (R-WI), Speaker of the Wisconsin House of Representatives, continues. according to NBC News:

A group that’s aiming to recall Robin Vos, the speaker of Wisconsin’s state Assembly and a top target of former President Donald Trump, said it has submitted the number of signatures needed to move forward with an effort to oust the Republican leader from office.

Recall Vos said it had gathered more than the nearly 7,000 required signatures from voters in Vos’ district. The filing deadline for the recall effort is Monday.

“I carry with me the voice of more than 10,000 Racine County residents,” the group’s recall petitioner, Matt Snorek, said at a news conference outside the Wisconsin Election Commission shortly before it delivered the signatures. “Together we are challenging the status quo, driven by the numerous ways in which Speaker Robin Vos has failed us.”

As the Democrats demonstrate they are, in general, more civilized than the Republicans, look for the new legislative maps to facilitate a migration of power from the latter to the former. Mr Snorek may be proud to have taken the next step to ejecting Speaker Vos from his position, and thence from the Party, but he’ll swiftly discover that it’s one thing to run your mouth when there are no consequences, and quite another when your legislative lawyers tell you that the actions your mouth is calling for, along with those that seek to replace you, is illegal and you run a real risk of ending up in the pokey.

But that’s the thing about extremists. Whether it’s God, ideologues, or myth, thought and research is neglected in favor of what makes the actors feel good – and that’ll lead you right to the infamous path terminating in black disaster.

Have fun, boys, storming the castle!