Category Archives: Uncategorized

Lest anyone think I hate or despise Mr Erickson, no, I don’t. I, in fact, appreciate his willingness to criticize his own side, because self-critics are often more honest than adversarial critics. Far more honest, far more insightful.

In his post referenced below, I have not listened to the radio show he attaches, but the text gives a flavor and the post title kinda says it all:

The Grifters On The Right

I have to wonder how long before he realizes all the honest folks have left leadership, either discouraged about the abrupt moral degradation of their fellow leaders and followers brought on by Mr Trump, or chased out by mostly the aforementioned, and grifters and allied criminals are now ascendant.

Even as a kid I remember the moaning about how the generation of the time didn’t measure up to the standards of the World War II generation, aka The Greatest Generation, and it looks like they may have gotten it right.

It’s apparent that Erick Erickson doesn’t really understand high level international maneuvering, as he tries to justify backing Mr Trump:

The truth is that Russia was not advancing in Ukraine when Trump was President — pausing their Obama-era gains in that country until Trump left. And Hamas was not killing Americans under the streets of Gaza when Trump was President.

It is precisely why I can support the man even as I am clear-eyed about him. The press and Democrats lack clear eyes to see that our dementia patient-in-chief cannot do his job.

This is a shallow analysis of the situation, akin to the logical fallacy of affirming the consequent, although I might prefer to call it overly-simplistic analysis. As I see a proper analysis, we need to take into account the fact that we’re a republic/democracy that suffers the usual range of defects inherent in such a governmental form, along with being a capitalist country with a moral foundation that has been crumbling for a good fifty years, at least. The Republicans are a bunch of fourth-rater mixture of hacks, religious zealots, and grifters who can often be bought, mislead, or otherwise manipulated, while the Democrats are second- and third-raters who have a tendency to forget about the basics of the country’s governance, but they are more aware of the international adversaries we face than are the Republicans, and less isolationist – the same isolationism that got us into World War II late.

So, if you’re an adversary, what to do? Evaluation: Put the weakest Party in charge of your adversary. Not an easy thing to do, but when a Party leader as weak and malleable as Mr Trump appears, it’s a Godsend. The game plan:

1. Engage in violence when the Democrats are in charge in order to stamp them with the appearance of weakness.
2. Get Mr Trump and his Party into power (note how Russian government officials applauded his election), even engaging in electoral interference, which, despite Mr Trump’s denials, seems to have occurred according to Mr. Mueller’s report.
3. Make Mr Trump look better by desisting from aggression while he’s in office. This isn’t wasting time, since President Putin had invaded and taken control of Crimea, and that consumed resources that needed to be replaced. Such replacement, especially in a weak economy like Russia’s, takes time, and, with President Obama’s undeclared war on Russia’s oil exports, even more time.
4. Make kissy-face with Mr Trump while he’s the President, as if the guy has any influence over President Putin. Note that the independent analyses I read indicated Mr Trump showed all the flags of a very weak negotiator, keeping all information, that should have been shared, private, and making ridiculous statements as a distraction.
5. Once Mr Trump is out of power, engage in some easy aggression again in order to make the Democrats look weak.

Of course, Americans do tend to be short-sighted – it’s the economy, stupid! being the best example, and that makes Russia’s plans actually harder to implement. Mr Trump’s glaring inadequacies can be difficult to overlook when they’re on blatant display, and I suspect Mr Trump, a man-child, takes poorly to direction from President Putin. That, however, is only speculation.

President Biden also didn’t put troops in Ukraine. Instead, he sent arms, many of which were scheduled for replacement, to Ukraine, and, much to Putin’s horror, the Ukrainians have used them to devastating effect. The “easy victory” may, instead, be President Putin’s epitaph. President Biden has taken a great deal of criticism from all sides, from faux-peaceniks like Rep Greene (R-GA) to more war-like members of the Democrats, who generally seem to forget that the Russians are nuclear-armed and must be handled with care. I think that President Biden isn’t some dementia-riddled body, but a tired, but still effective, political strategist and tactician.

So, in effect, I’m rather horrified that Erickson will use that sort of shallow reasoning to justify backing his own demented candidate for Christmas, just because, as a political convenience, Mr Trump is against abortion. Sort of. Maybe. If it suits his political position.

And Democrats back abortion as a principled right.

Madam has all of her help dress like this.

Blithe Spirit (1945) is a comparative rarity: a production with sophisticated dialog that works, disturbingly, on several levels, pushing such buttons as bullying, sarcasm, and alcoholism through British high society’s precocious predilection for stereotypical phrases that can be snapped off at a moment’s notice: Do you think so? Quite.

In this story of a novelist’s late wife coming back for a good haunting, the fun with language really takes off when, on her return, only he can see her; the current wife is the victim of thinking much of the dialog is directed at her and not the unseen first wife. This exposes the deadly content that is ordinarily insulated by expectation, the expectation that exaggeration is part of regular conversation, but when misdirected it can leave its unintended targets in tatters.

A marvelously gusto-filled medium who steals all of her scenes, a mousy maid, and every character quite filled with life (or something like it), if not quite believable, this is a fun little flick, excepting a final scene that was not part of the stage play on which the movie was based, but outside of that I thoroughly enjoyed it as a bit of light entertainment as I recover from a default-diagnosis of food poisoning.

The detective and his favorite tree. He later married it, and then, in a ghastly fit of madness, chopped it down and made it into a dining room table. Their children were horrified.

Marlowe (2022) I watched, oh, one or two years ago, made a note of it in my usual way for review … and promptly forgot about it. A few months ago I noticed it, looked it up, said, Oh, that, and have been ignoring it ever since.

Which may tell you all you really need to know.

But to finish up, it’s not based on any of Chandler’s original Marlowe stories, but rather a derivative from 2014 which I never read. It’s also derivative, at least in my limited experience, of the retro movement of today, a fascination by Gen Xers and others of that age with previous American generations. You probably have heard, but it seems to involve fine arts, such as music and the hardware used to reproduce, especially phonographs and vinyl records; for those of my age, I have yet to hear of 8-track tapes making a comeback.

And that’s how this sort of felt. Liam Neeson in old detective clothes – yet, maybe, not really living in them.

There’s a coherent, even potentially interesting mystery that he’s investigating, but why he doesn’t end up dead is a bit of a mystery in itself. And the rest of it?

Forgotten.

If you like old mystery movies starring the likes of Bogie, you may want to give this a look, just out of comparative interest. Figuring out why the old ones were better than this is an interesting academic exercise.

Circumnutation:

Nutation refers to the bending movements of stems, roots, leaves and other plant organs caused by differences in growth in different parts of the organ. Circumnutation refers specifically to the circular movements often exhibited by the tips of growing plant stems, caused by repeating cycles of differences in growth around the sides of the elongating stem. Nutational movements are usually distinguished from ‘variational’ movements caused by temporary differences in the water pressure inside plant cells (turgor). [Wikipedia]

That’s a new one on me. Noted in “The surprising way sunflowers work together to get enough light,” Leah Crane, NewScientist (24 August 2024, paywall):

Sunflowers move in a way that helps their neighbours. The seemingly random motion of the plants’ roots and shoots actually minimises shade cover in crowded environments, ensuring that all of them get enough light to grow.

Scientists have known about this plant motion, known as circumnutation, for centuries, but its purpose has always been elusive. “In climbing plants, it’s clear that it’s a search process, searching for a new stick to twine on. But in other plants, it’s not clear if it’s a bug or a feature,” says Yasmine Meroz at Tel Aviv University in Israel.

From the Minnesota State Fair, first Friday:

And what does the squall of polls mean? Maybe we can hope for one in Mississippi? Or am I getting my hopes up?

You Can Here Hear Their Engines Overloading

This seems to be the week for frantic tilting by suspected conservative pollsters, such as Redfield & Wilton Strategies and InsiderAdvantage. We saw this sort of thing in 2022, as I’ve mentioned before, but it’s not clear to me that it does anything more than ruin the reputations of the pollsters. Maybe it forestalls failures in House and downballot races by misleading voters about just how badly the campaigns are going?

And Here We Are, At Niagara Falls

• Ballot Splitting, Anyone? According to SurveyUSA (2.8/3 at FiveThirtyEight), Nebraska may favor Mr Trump, 54%-37%, over Mz Harris, but when it comes to the regularly scheduled Senate seat race, it’s no romp: Senator Fischer (R-NE) leads by only one over challenger Dan Osborn (I-NE, Democrat-endorsed), 39%-38%, certainly within the ±3.5% margin of error. Poll sponsor Split Ticket’s analysis includes this:
  

  This is almost entirely due to Osborn running as an Independent. His overperformance doesn’t seem like it is due to his own favorability rating (which stands at 34% favorable and 24% unfavorable), as 42% of voters simply haven’t heard anything about him. It also doesn’t seem like it is wholly attributable to Deb Fischer’s ratings — at 42% favorable and 41% unfavorable, her rating is still net positive, and it’s actually better than Pete Ricketts’ 44% favorable and 45% unfavorable image. But Ricketts leads by 17, while Fischer leads by just 1, with the only real difference between their races being their opponents’ party identification.

  So it appears that in Nebraska the Democrats are to be loathed brain-washing has been at least partially successful. Split Ticket’s conclusion?

  We’d still think Fischer is extremely likely to win, given the time left in this race, the number of undecideds, and the mystery box that Osborn is to many voters at the moment. In fact, we think she’ll gain significantly as the election nears. But that hasn’t happened yet, and at the moment, our poll finds something very similar to what Osborn’s released internals are yielding: a very unexpectedly competitive race. We’ll see if that holds.

  Seems reasonable enough. Two months to go.

• 

  On The Issues: Senator Pete Ricketts (R-NE).

  The same pairing of SurveyUSA and Split Ticket doesn’t find comparable drama in the other Nebraska Senate race to that of Senator Fischer’s race, as Senator Ricketts (R-NE) leads challenger Preston Love, Jr. (D-NE) 50%-33%. That’s a pity, given Rickett’s adamantly hard-line conservatism is inappropriate in an institution that should be built on compromise and humility.

• Commenting on the Arizona Senate race no longer seems worth the time, even if Republican candidate and election-denier Kari Lake’s authoritative commentary on a previously reported poll is this:
  

  Lake on Thursday called the [Fox News] poll [showing Lake to be down by 15 points] “absolute garbage.”

  “Nobody wins by 15 points,” she told KTAR’s Mike Broomhead. [azcentral]

  So I shan’t, unless Gallego falls off a cliff. But since I’m here, Redfield & Wilton Strategies (1.8) is giving Gallego a mere five point lead, 42%-37%, which I’m choosing to consider a piece of evidence that Redfield & Wilton Strategies leans heavily conservative. Another suspect, InsiderAdvantage (2.0), is also giving Gallego a five point lead at 49%-45% (a bit of rounding, no doubt), proving, perhaps, to be another friend of Mz Lake. With friends like these, the humiliation of losing by twenty points, which is not out of the question, just becomes more intense.

• Florida has acquired its own abortion Amendment to the State Constitution, known as Amendment 4, to be approved by the electorate. I understand it to be a compromise, as its language (from Ballotpedia) is, in part:
  

  … no law shall prohibit, penalize, delay, or restrict abortion before viability or when necessary to protect the patient’s health, as determined by the patient’s healthcare provider.

  … before viability … makes it a compromise, of course. Indeed, some might call it a faux-compromise, as many obstetrician-gynecologists would find themselves in the uncomfortable situation of having to interpret an amendment of dubious composition, often under a time pressure. But it does function as a defense of some abortion rights, which explains the pro-life movement’s hostility towards it.

  Mr. Trump, as a Florida resident, can vote on the Amendment if he so wishes, and when he did not express complete and total opposition to it in response to an interview question, Erick Erickson and other right-wing extremists had a panic attack:

  Now, [pro-lifers] are losing with Donald Trump, who yesterday, when everyone on the right had the opportunity to rally behind him and enjoy watching Kamala Harris beclown herself, had to interrupt the news cycle to announce he did not like a six-week fetal heartbeat ban in Florida — existing law that had broad appeal among conservatives.

  Pro-lifers interpreted that as Trump endorsing the public abortion referendum on the ballot in Florida. His campaign tried to spin it, but the damage was done.

  NBC: “So you’ll vote in favor of the amendment?”

  Trump: “I am gonna be voting that we need more than six weeks.”

  There is the six-week existing law, or there is the pro-abortion amendment. The amendment, to be voted on by voters on election day, would legalize all abortions until the moment the last toe of the child has left the birth canal.

  Of course, Erickson misstates the Amendment, but let’s ignore that. If the pro-life movement walks away from Mr. Trump, he is finished, in Erickson’s opinion. I agree. Mr Trump then issued a retraction, again according to Erick Erickson:

  Yesterday, on my show and here, I said Donald Trump needed to come out and say he opposed Florida’s Amendment 4. More specifically, on my show, I said he needed to do it before pro-life Christians got in church on Sunday and started talking to each other.

  I’m under no illusion that I had anything to do with Mr. Trump’s clarification, but I am glad he did it before the sun set on Friday.

  Not only should that help kill Amendment 4 in Florida, but it should help Mr. Trump with pro-life voters.

  Mr Trump may have saved the allegiance of the core of his base, the pro-lifers. But that does not doom Florida’s Amendment 4; Erickson remains blinded by his flawed stance against abortion, and his belief that he somehow has the right to inflict his flawed reasoning on everyone else, even those whose lives are endangered by it. Mr. Trump understands, in a way Erickson does not, that women resent Erickson’s belief system that results in their ephemerality.

  That means voters opposed to the loss of abortion rights will still show up at the polls, probably vote against Mr Trump, and certainly for this flawed Amendment – and, for the purposes of this post – against Senator Scott (R-FL) and for former Rep Mucarsel-Powell (D-FL). If the latter wins, she can send a Thank you! note to the Amendment 4 organizers, and then to Mr Trump.

  In other news, Redfield & Wilton Strategies (1.8) gives Senator Scott a lead of only three points, 43%-40%. over former Rep Mucarsel-Powell. If Redfield & Wilton Strategies does lean conservative, Mucarsel-Powell may actually be ahead. But that’s only speculation.

• West Virginia’s Senate race has a poll, but FiveThirtyEight does not recognize the pollster, Research America, and the sponsor is West Virginia MetroNews, which doesn’t scream a bias. Justice is given a huge lead of 62%-28%, but since the credibility of the pollster is impossible to assess, I can’t take this seriously, yet. Mr Justice losing this race is nearly inconceivable, but I’ve been more impressed by the paucity of polls of West Virginia voters.
• In Michigan, Redfield & Wilton Strategies (1.8) gives Rep Slotkin (D-MI) a lead of 42%-35% over former Rep Mike Rogers (R-MI) for the open Michigan Senate seat, which may be conservatively slanted. EPIC-MRA (2.0) has Slotkin ahead by a smaller margin, 46%-42%. WoodTV.com, reporting on the EPIC-MRA poll, notes and compares to a recent Emerson College poll, which is nice, although they don’t note Emerson College’s rating of 2.9, easily exceeding these two polls. On the other hand, I’m a little suspicious of Emerson College myself, but they may end up making a monkey out of me.
• My suspicions of Redfield & Wilton Strategies (1.8) are crystallized in their report on Minnesota Senator Klobuchar (D-MN) vs challenger Royce White (R-MN) in which they accord the Senator a mere seven point lead at 41%-34%. If that lead is not tweny-plus points, it’s not, in my opinion, accurate. And why in the world would they think Minnesota is a swing state? They also think Senator Rosen’s (D-NV) lead over challenger Sam Brown (R-NV) is only four, 43%-39%, in Nevada. Recent polling has suggested a ten-plus point lead.
• In Texas unknown pollster Quantus Polls and News gives Senator Cruz (R-TX) an almost plausible lead of 50%-43% over Rep Allred (D-TX). But why should I take this seriously? Ah, well, new pollsters are required to start out under the proper cloud of skepticism. Let’s hope none of those Texas hailstorms are embedded in that skepticism.

Fin.

[Sep 1 2024]

Hiding from the monsters:

Trump had his time in the sun, but now he's finding out what happens when the predator becomes the prey. pic.twitter.com/Ti8yZn68pS

— The Lincoln Project (@ProjectLincoln) August 30, 2024

In The Dash

Suffolk University (FiveThirtyEight rating of 2.9) has this to say about the Presidential race:

Vice President Kamala Harris has engineered an eight-point turnaround in the race for president by overtaking former President Donald Trump, according to a new  Suffolk University/USA TODAY national poll of likely voters for president taken  immediately after the Democratic National Convention.

Among likely voters, Harris (47.6%) led Trump (43.3%) with independent Cornel West (1.5%), Green Party Jill Stein (1.2%), and Libertarian Chase Oliver (0.7%) following, with 4.8% undecided.

4+ point lead isn’t much, truth be told. But Harris/Walz has two more months to draw comparisons and contrasts with Trump / Vance.

Oh, And This …

Gallup Party Preferences

Something for Democrats to consider.

Life preservers, made of sugar and guaranteed to survive contact with salt water, come and get your own! We’ll even engrave your name on them as we sink! Don’t believe everything you read.

There May Be A Tsunami Out There

Keeping an eye on the reporting on the Presidential race, as well as how the statistical trends of pollsters are leaning, and the name McGovern comes to mind. George McGovern (D-SD) won the Democratic nomination for President in 1972, but, in the subsequent general election, lost to Republican incumbent President Nixon in the Electoral College, 520 to 17. The loss, the rejection, was so bad that McGovern and his wife reportedly considered emigrating. (I have since heard, from a politico friend, that Vice President Walter Mondale’s (D-MN) loss to Reagan was worse at 525-13. Since he’s from Minnesota, I’ll give him a pass.)

Will Trump become the next McGovern? And what does his continued slide mean for the Senate campaigns and elections?

If a McGovern tsunami sweeps over the Republicans and Trump, they won’t take it laying down. I think there’s evidence that some pollsters are skewing results, and others are not adjusting their electoral models for the influx of voters motivated to vote against Dobbs and its supporters – I’m thinking of highly rated Emerson College, which appears to be out of step with other top pollsters. See Wisconsin, below.

Pollsters and their sponsors are certainly motivated this season. Whether it’s highly competitive, as most pundits and politicians proclaim, or a blowout, as I predict, this election season will be more historic than most.

We may see the end of the Republican Party in its Gingrichian mode.

Over The Same Old Ketchup & Cigarette Smoke Stained Table

• In the race for retiring Senator Romney’s (R-UT) Utah Senate seat, Rep John Curtis (R-UT) has a substantial lead, if I may understate the case, over his rivals of 56%-22%-9%, those rivals being, respectively, Caroline Gleich (D-UT) and Carlton Bowen (Independent American Party of Utah). The pollster is HarrisX (unknown to FiveThirtyEight). Rep Curtis seems to be the odds on favorite to become Senator Curtis, despite the status of the pollster, and I shan’t report on Utah results again unless something goes horribly wrong for Mr. Curtis. Yes, I know I said that last time. Shame on me.
• The Montana Republican Party has sponsored a poll by Public Opinion Strategies (1.7) to persuade you that challenger Tim Sheehy (R-MT?) leads Senator Tester (D-MT) in Montana, 51%-44%. A highly partisan sponsor of a pollster with a definitely mediocre history, producing results that diverge from a higher quality pollster’s results by 13 points? I’ll regard that with suspicion and, yes, a pinch of salt and some vinegar. Join me.
• Meanwhile, in Michigan a similar scenario yields different results. TIPP Insights (1.8), working for right-wing American Greatness, finds that Rep Slotkin (D-MI) continues to hold a substantial lead over former Rep Mike Rogers (R-MI), 49%-39%. This is similar to the last poll from The Bullfinch Group. Are they trying to build cred with the general audience? Or simply believe that truth and honesty is an important facet of polling analysis?

  In other polling news for Michigan, Emerson College (2.9) gives Slotkin a lead of 47%-41%, while Fabrizio Ward (unknown under that name) calls it EVEN at 43% apiece. Notably, Fabrizio Ward used a sample size only half that of Emerson College and has a margin of error of ±4.9% compared to ±3.4% for the latter, so along with being unknown, it may not be operating with enough data.

• My last update for Nebraska speculated an alleged faux pas by former Senator Sasse (R-NE) in Florida might shift voting patterns. Now, the Secretary of State for Nebraska is approving not one, but two abortion-related amendments to the Nebraska Constitution. It’s not hard to imagine everyone sensitive to the issue lining up for hours to vote in this election, and those who are against restrictions also voting against Republican candidates for just about everything, now is it?
• In New Jersey, Republican vier (if you vie for something, are you a vier? How about that, you are!) for the Menendez Senate seat Curtis Bashaw (R-NJ) has sponsored a poll by National Research (1.8) that shows his rival, Rep Kim (D-NJ) ahead by only five points, 38%-33%. Wishful forecasting? Rep Kim is not popular in New Jersey? Well, this ridiculous quote of the “polling memo” might tell us something:
  

  “Curtis Bashaw’s unique profile as a political outsider and job creator contrasts well against Kim’s career as a government bureaucrat and politician collecting government paychecks,” the polling memo states. “Bashaw’s common-sense centrism also contrasts well against Kim’s embrace of far left ideology. With a subpar image, Kim could very well be vulnerable in the home-stretch post Labor Day.”

  Bashaw’s profile is not unique, think of Hovde, Sheehy, Moreno, and several more that I don’t recall (I plead early morning-itis). The phrases job creator and common sense centrism are classic Republican descriptors designed to contrast positively with politician collecting government paychecks, but it’s a false contrast, because it implies that politicians occupy sinecures while producing nothing. In reality, the creation and refinement of laws is a critical enterprise in the vast experiment in democracy that is America, now isn’t it? This contrast also has the unexpected consequence of implying Mr. Bashaw is seeking a sinecure, although I don’t expect the media to notice and point that out. Finally, embrace of far left ideology is a bit of Republican boiler-plate, designed to infuriate and strengthen their base, and frighten the independents.

  Putting it all together and I’d go with wishful forecasting. A 1.8 pollster rating is mediocre, and I can’t say I remember them from any previous campaign. These results are lower than other pollsters’, and New Jersey is notoriously Democratic.

• In Arizona, the people with a front seat view of the action are leaning away from Republican candidate Kari Lake (R-AZ) and towards Democratic Rep Ruben Gallego (D-AZ):
  

  Bisbee Mayor Ken Budge announced his endorsement Wednesday, making him the latest border mayor [in Arizona] to back Gallego’s Senate bid as immigration and border security remain top issues in the 2024 cycle. Budge praised Gallego in a statement first shared with the Washington Examiner, lauding the House Democrat as the “best candidate in this race to address the situation at the border.” [Washington Examiner]

  I don’t really know the effect of such endorsements on the voting public, but on the border issue it may be quite a lot.

  But Gallego may not need endorsements, as Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research (2.8), sponsored by right-wing Fox News, gives Gallego a 56%-41%, which may serve not only to move him to the Senate, but burn down an Arizona Republican Party that permitted itself to be flim-flammed into selecting Lake as the Republican candidate. This is what happens when a Party is taken over by fourth-raters, and, while entertaining, is a bit of a tragedy in a political system dependent on the Parties balancing each other in the difficult act known as governance.

  In other polls for Arizona, highly rated Emerson College (2.9) gives Gallego a miniscule 49%-42% lead, and Noble Predictive Insights (no slouch at 2.4) also gives Gallego a seven point lead, 47%-40%.

• Maryland’s former Governor, Larry Hogan (R-MD) has pulled even with Angela Alsobrooks (D-MD) in the race for the open US Senate seat at 46% apiece … if you believe Fabrizio, Lee & Associates/Impact Research (1.7). Polling has been scarce for Maryland, but this result is still out of line for what little we have out there. I’d waiting for confirming polls from reputable pollsters before getting bent out of shape.
• In Texas, Public Policy Polling (1.4), working for Democratic partisan PAC Clean and Prosperous America, finds Senator Cruz (R-TX) leading challenger Rep Allred (D-TX), 44%-40%., and only by two points if candidates other than Cruz and Allred are excluded. The four point lead scenario seems more reality-based, but in both cases the gap is less than the margin of error. Now if only Public Policy Polling were more credible. Meanwhile, unknown pollster ActiVote is giving Cruz a ten point lead, 55%-45%. This result is well off of previous polls by known pollsters, so I’m not paying attention to it.
• In Florida, Public Policy Polling (1.4), working for Democratic partisan PAC Clean and Prosperous America, finds Senator Scott (R-FL) leading former Rep Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (D-FL) by three points, 46%-43%, which is within the margin of error. As with Texas, a more impressive pollster would make this more interesting news. In more questionable news, Cherry Communications (1.1) gives Senator Scott a lead of 51%-44%. The sponsor of the poll? Republican Party-aligned Florida Chamber of Commerce. A partisan sponsor, using a pollster at the bottom of the ratings, is not a respectable combination.
• Given the prominence of the Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research (2.8) / Fox News pairing, I’ll ignore my pronouncement concerning Nevada and note that the polling pair gives Senator Rosen (D-NV) a 55%-41%, or fourteen point lead, over challenger Sam Brown (R-NV), which is similar to recent previous polls. On the other end of the pollster spectrum, Strategies 360 (1.1) has Senator Rosen up 50%-38%. Close ’nuff, I suspect. Sitting in this group is also Emerson College (2.9) with a result of 50%-40%.
• YouGov (2.9) gives Missouri’s Senator Hawley (R-MO) a big lead over challenger Lucas Kunce (D-MO), 53%-42%. That’s not a good sign for Mr Kunce.
• Do Businessmen Have To Be Successful To Win? No, probably not. Look at Mr Trump, after all. So this news out of West Virginia will probably have minimal impact on the  race for the open Senate seat between Gov Jim Justice (R-WV) and former Mayor Glenn Elliott (D-WV):
  

  As attorneys for West Virginia Gov. Jim Justice’s two adult children prepare to defend their motion in a local circuit court to keep the historic Greenbrier Resort from being auctioned off next week, a new bank is claiming the family defaulted on another loan.

  And despite calls to drop out of the U.S. Senate race by the West Virginia Democratic Party over numerous news reports about the woes of his resort, Justice has remained silent. [The Parkersburg News and Sentinel]

  Even Justice also owes millions in back taxes to the state and county … will have little impact. To me, he sounds like a scam artist, perhaps a very, very good one. But to West Virginians, he’s just a guy struggling to make a living. I’ll leave sarcasm to the comedians in the crowd.

  And, no, retiring Senator Manchin (now I-WV), current occupant of the seat, has not announced he’s going to run after all. The national atmosphere certainly calls for it, Senator Manchin. Oh, wait, that’s the Minnesota State Fair, which is just outside my window. Sorry, comedians.

• And in the shocking news of this issue, Emerson College (2.9) is giving Wisconsin’s Senator Baldwin (D-WI) a one point lead over challenger Eric Hovde (R-WI?), 49%-48%. An outlier? A predictor? Recent polls have given Senator Baldwin a far larger lead, some reaching into double digits. Notably, Emerson College is giving Mr Trump an unsurprising one point lead over Vice President Harris in Wisconsin, while Morning Consult (1.8 – not nearly as impressive a rating), for Bloomberg News, finds Harris leading Trump in Wisconsin by 8 points, 52%-44%, which I find barely believable at this stage. I have to wonder if Emerson College isn’t adjusting its electoral model to account for new voters, or if Morning Consult has adjusted too much.

  And Fabrizio Ward (unknown) gives Senator Baldwin a five point lead, 48%-43%. I see that Fabrizio, along with using only half the sample size of Emerson College, also conducted their survey Aug. 19-21, compared to Emerson College’s Aug. 25-28. News grows stale quickly in this electoral season. It takes an exceptional bit of news to have staying power, such as the Dobbs decision. Otherwise, blink and it’s gone from the public consciousness.

And In Conclusion, I’d Like To Say …

This section intentionally left blank.

[published Aug 30, 2024]

Autogolpe:

Quite the windbag, it was.

While reading Professor Richardson’s latest missive, I ran across this passage:

It’s hard to look away from the reality that the Republican senators could have stopped this catastrophe at many points in Trump’s term, at the very least by voting to convict Trump at his first impeachment trial. At the time, Senator Ted Cruz (R-TX) said, “Out of one hundred senators, you have zero who believe you that there was no quid pro quo. None. There’s not a single one.” Republican senators nonetheless stood behind Trump. “This is not about this president. It’s not about anything he’s been accused of doing,” then–majority leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) told his colleagues. “It has always been about November 3, 2020. It’s about flipping the Senate.”

And now I want to be a cartoonist. My cartoon would show Mr Trump ascending a ladder, no doubt a rear view, and each rung, in classic editorial cartoon fashion, would be composed of a Senator, with name attached, who voted against a verdict of guilty.

The question would be the goal for which Trump ascends. Maybe just a label: The Fascist States of America. And McConnell could be seen muttering, The Senate is more important than the Country! as Trump steps on his head.

Darn my lack of talent!

Steve Benen finds the behavior of Republican Parties of various States puzzling:

Last month, CNN reported that Republicans from seven battleground states agreed to send “fake electors and others who worked to upend the 2020 election results to represent their state parties at the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee.”

Not all of the fake electors who served as convention delegates were under criminal indictment — but some were, and the party didn’t seem to care.

It’s against this backdrop that Michigan Republicans backed indicted fake electors, too.

As the criminal charges piled up, it seemed implausible that GOP officials would extend rewards to those who were caught serving as fake electors. And yet, here we are. [Maddowblog]

Actually, it’s very plausible. The Republican Party is currently built on unshakable allegiance, and in fact has been since the days of Rep Earl Landgrebe (R-IN), whose loyalty to President Nixon (R) was unshakeable. The Party asked the “fake electors” to go out and do something, well, frankly wrong, and now we’re witnessing their Party rewards: asked to be convention delegates.

Party members are being reminded that loyalty to the Party and its demands is more important than loyalty to the Country and its secular moral code.

Without this action, the Party would risk gradual destruction as members realized that there was no rewards for putting oneself on the line. Only by rewarding them can a Party run by fourth-raters and ne’er-do-wells hope to survive.

At least, in its current form and under current management. Current management being conmen, grifters, and others of that type.

But that’s what’s going on here.

In The Dash

Rather infamous Kaplan Strategies (2.0) is measuring our candidates for President nationally and finds … oh, you don’t know why they’re infamous? As I noted here, Kaplan’s reliability is dubious:

[Kaplan is] the pollsters who gave Nevada Republican Senate nominee candidate Jeffrey Gunter, the sponsor of the particular poll, a 1 point lead [in the primary], while other pollsters gave Sam Brown a 38 point lead; Brown won by 40+ points.

So assessing the reliability of this poll is problematic, but also interesting. Why? Here’s RedState.com’s report on the poll, and they get kudos on putting the bad news right up front.

President Donald J. Trump trailed his Democratic opponent, Vice President Kamala Harris, 45 percent to 52 percent with Likely Voters, and then among Registered Voters, Trump trailed Harris with 46 percent to her 50 percent, according to the Kaplan Strategies poll put in the field Aug. 23 through Aug. 24.

As I prefer the likely voter scenario over the registered voter scenario, and that’s what I report in my Senate Campaign Updates, I’ll go with the seven point lead among likely voters.

Surveying FiveThirtyEight’s list of recent Presidential polls, Kaplan Strategies has no sponsor listed, so it’s difficult to say if this poll should be considered skewed, at least for folks like you and me. That same list shows this poll as giving Harris the biggest lead as of this writing, so perhaps it’s not skewed.

That said, the balance of Redstate’s report is rather interesting in that it attempts to obscure the import of Harris’ lead. This bit is particularly funny in view of the fact that a Vice President having to replace their President late in the race might be considered to be at a disadvantage against a former President, and yet …

“This is a very close race, and the Trump campaign is absorbing the full-on assault of Harris campaign—and yet, Harris, with everything going in her favor, is still not pulling away from Trump,” said Doug Kaplan, whose Florida-based political consulting firm conducted the poll, full details of which may be viewed below.

… Harris, with everything in her favor … really? Did he really think he could slip that phrase of indictment in there? Is he saying Mr. Trump is sub-standard, that he’s inferior?

I suspect that, by November 1st, we’re going to see polls giving Harris larger advantages, of 15 points, of 20 points. And if Mr Trump tries to leave the contest, Mr Vance will fare no better.

In short, we’re seeing what happens when a Party is dominated by fourth-raters whose main skill is shrieking RINO!, the base being constituted of folks who don’t consider competency or compromise or deep thinking to be legitimate political skills, and ruled by the Gingrichian diktats concerning inter-Party warfare. This has been a major theme of this blog, and I and long-term readers are now observing a nadir of the Republican Party, shepherded by members of all the major institutions of our government, as in the names Trump, Thomas, Alito, McConnell, Scott (pick your Senator Scott, neither has distinguished themselves in the positive aspect), Graham, McCarthy, Gaetz, Greene, Gosar, and the beat goes on.

Oh, And This …

The DJT stock chart as of about 2:30 pm today:

The last time I published a post on DJT, it’s price was $33/share, and, from this chart, we can see the price going up and down over the last six month. Notice that the merger that took DJT public was in early April, and if Trump decides to dump his stock in order to make money, DJT will plunge.

I suspect DJT will be heading downhill until November, at which point it may disappear completely. In this, it’ll act as a proxy for the popularity of Mr Trump, and as Mr Trump continues to exhibit the symptoms of narcissism and dementia, so the stock’s behavior will reflect. The one counter to this will be the attempts of outside parties to manipulate the price. Whether it works or not remains to be seen.

From NewScientist (3 August 2024):

The Komodo dragon, one of the planet’s fiercest reptiles, reinforces its teeth with an iron cap – and researchers think some dinosaurs may have had this adaptation too. …

Compared with human teeth, Komodo dragon enamel is incredibly thin, says [Aaron LeBlanc of King’s College London]. Along the serrations, the enamel is only 20 micrometres thick – about a quarter of the thickness of a human hair. The enamel in human teeth is about 100 times thicker.

The iron layer in Komodo dragon teeth is coated on top of this extremely thin layer of enamel. The team think it either gives the enamel extra strength to protect serrations while eating prey or acts as a barrier against acidic digestive juices.

One of the most dangerous critters in the world, and it turns out they’re seriously goth.

Or at least so I’d like to think.

Spiel:

a speech, especially one that is long and spoken quickly and is intended to persuade the person listening about something:

• a sales spiel
• They gave us a long spiel about why we needed to install double glazing in our house. [Cambridge Dictionary]

A bit old-fashioned, I suspect, but useful for period fiction or a desire to distinguish oneself with one’s patter, which is itself listed as a synonym.. I wonder how many campaign speeches qualify, as the spoken quickly constraint surprised me a bit. Noted in “Harris embraces patriotism and decency. Will voters?” Jennifer Rubin, WaPo:

This was a presidential-level address, not merely another campaign spiel. [Kamala Harris’] delivery, timing and demeanor conveyed calm authority. She is betting that patriotism, decency and kindness still win in Americans’ hearts. She stuck the landing this week; now, it’s up to the country to prove her right.

Last time was this, but what is that?

Over The Traffic Hump Labeled ‘DNC’, What’s Next?

• Florida’s primaries yielded the final contestants in the State’s Senate race, Senator Rick Scott (R-FL) and former Rep Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, along with four candidates with little chance. The weed in the garden if you’re a Democrat? Senator Scott, while crushing two primary opponents, garnered more ballots in his primary than did all the Democratic candidates aggregated. This suggests Mucarsel-Powell has to persuade all of the Democratic voters, of which she won only 68.6% of their ballots, and a large majority of the independent voters, to vote for her in order to win.Thing is, this is not impossible. The blowback of the Dobbs decision, communicated properly, may suffice to defeat a Senator with a lot of behavioral problems. While the numbers are disconcerting on their own, the Democrats still have an outside chance in the big State of Florida.
• After its Tuesday primary, Wyoming will see a Senatorial contest between Senator John Barrasso (R-WY) , who surprisingly only received 68.1% of the Republican primary votes, and challenger Scott Morrow (D-WY), who lost a few votes to write-in candidates, and thus won his primary with only 98+% of the Democratic ballots. That said, Barrasso nearly quadrupled Morrow’s ballot count, and put the two together and they barely top 5,000 votes. When they say it’s a small State, they mean it.And it’s full of tall mountains, and that’s what Morrow faces in this race.
• But Texas is not full of tall mountains, and the big one Rep Allred (D-TX) faced a few months ago appears to now be more of a hill, as highly respected pollster YouGov (2.9) has Rep Allred only two points behind Senator Cruz (R-TX), 47%-45%.If Rep Allred pulls this off, it’ll be a real shock to the entire Texas Republican Party, an organization that desperately needs electric shock therapy in the wake of the failed impeachment of Texas AG Ken Paxton. And it’s too bad my Mom’s not still around, as Allred was her maiden name. She’d be tickled.
• In Maine, University of New Hampshire Survey Center (2.6) is giving Senator Angus King (I-ME) a lead over Republican challenger Demi Kouzounas (R-ME) and Democratic challenger David Costello (D-ME), 43%-33%-9%, respectively. Senator King is an independent who apparently cannot stomach the Republicans in the Senate, and therefore caucuses with the Democrats, providing a critical vote to the Democrats. Unless numbers change in a challenger’s favor, I shan’t mention Maine again.
• A Dream, Extinguished: A few months ago, Axios reported on Republican dreams when it comes to New Mexico’s race between Senator Heinrich (D-NM) and challenger Nella Domenici (R-NM):
  

  With [Domenici’s] name ID and personal wealth, national Republicans see the race as a sleeper that may also force Democrats to spend resources defending what is considered a safe seat.

  Emerson College (2.9) is now measuring Senator Heinrich’s margin as being twelve points, 49%-37%, with a credibility interval of ±3.1 points, and I think the Republican dream is extinguished, absent a black swan event. Unless shocking news comes along, I shall omit New Mexico polling news in the future.

• I didn’t expect to ever again mention the newest member of the Senate, New Jersey’s George Helmy (D-NJ), who was appointed by Governor Murphy (D-NJ) to the seat of the resigning-in-disgrace former Senator Bob Menendez (I-NJ), but this goes into the Political Version of Trivial Pursuit:
  

  George Helmy will succeed Menendez until the November election results for the Senate seat are certified late in the month, the governor said. At that point, Murphy said Helmy will resign and he’ll name the winner of the election to the seat. [AP]

  The Trivial Pursuit question might be Who is the most ephemeral member of the US Senate? (Does Trivial Pursuit function on questions? I haven’t played in thirty years.)  Alternative: Which US Senator kept his seat warmest? Sure does sound like a Thank You! to me, as previously noted, and I’m fairly sure I’ve never seen this before.

• In Vermont, I, of course, am wrong, as University of New Hampshire Survey Center (2.6) has produced poll results that I claimed no one would bother pursuing. In their measurement, Senator Sanders (I-VT) leads Gerald Malloy (R-VT), by a large number, 66%-25%. Vermont will be getting no more love from me. Or, to borrow an obscure poetic form:
  

  Sanders tops
  a
  hapless victim

• Pitiless Rumors Department: Former Nebraska Senator Ben Sasse (R-NE), who resigned to take the job of President of the University of Florida last year, and since resigned from that job, purportedly due to a family illness, is accused of, well, poor financial judgment by fellow Republican Governor Ron DeSantis (R-FL):
  

  Former University of Florida President Ben Sasse on Friday disputed allegations of “inappropriate spending” following reports that spending by the president’s office more than tripled after he took over as leader of the state’s flagship university. [6 South Florida]

  Disputations and more salacious details at the link. It all sounds irrelevant, yet might it have an impact on Nebraska voters and the two races on which they’ll be voting? That’s a hard question to answer. But in the wake of the shocking news that Dan Osborn (I-NE) is only two points behind Senator Fischer (R-NE) in a very respectable pollster’s results, which is almost certainly within the margin of error, every voter who flips from Republican to, let us say, disgusted with all the Republican corruption! is a valuable voter for Osborn. Mr Osborn may find himself obligated to send a Thank You! note to Governor DeSantis.

  

  On The Issues: Senator Pete Ricketts (R-NE).

  And, in the other race of appointed Senator Ricketts (R-NE) and challenger Preston Love Jr. (D-NE) for former Senator Sasse’s seat? Well, what of Mr Love? I have yet to see a poll on this race. But looking at Senator Ricketts’ On The Issues summary to the right, it’s clear that he’s not going to be namby-pamby on the abortion issue, and that should spell political trouble for the Senator and former governor. (Yes, there’s the red dot marking his position, waaaaay to the right – he must be a contender for Most Conservative Senator!).

  Time for a poll!

Where Are We At? Let Me Consult The Map The Baby Upchucked On

Despite the negative predictions of right wing pundits and politicians, the pro-choice wave is surging in, just as it did during nearly all the special elections since Dobbs was announced. Women are outraged at the decision, and in those States where anti-abortion politicians control the issue, laws have been passed outlawing the medical procedure. I use the word control because some States, despite being conservative, have clauses in their Constitutions guaranteeing access to abortion.

These laws are the production of inept politicians. I use the word politician with precision; these laws may be competently written, making them technically good lawmakers. But politicians, real politicians in the American tradition, know that persuasion generally precedes effective laws, and a law passed through subterfuge, or invalidated through dubious reasoning, as with Dobbs, or simply rammed through by a minority that happens to be in power, is despised and can expand and harden opposition. Politicians who don’t understand the proper contribution of the model of a liberal democracy to American politics, whether it’s in the context of abortion or the management of the transgender issue, is a continuing failure regardless of the success or failure of the issue at hand, and, for the benefit of the State or the Country, should be dumped out on their ass.

I don’t care how much they scream But God Said ! or But Who Will Think Of The Children ?! That’s not how we do things here in the States, and if you don’t like it you, can lump it.

And we’re going to see this, and continue to see this, when it comes to Dobbs. The real question is the magnitude of the reaction. Here are the races that I think have become interesting:

• John Barrasso (R-WY) vs. Scott Morrow. There are no polls, so I’m moving it to the hot races list.
• Kevin Cramer (R-ND) vs Katrina Christiansen (D-ND), for which there are no credible polls, but at least a few people are beginning to suggest Cramer is vulnerable. I don’t think so, but I keep an open mind when it comes to me being wrong.
• Ted Cruz (R-TX) vs Colin Allred (D-TX) is definitely a hot race, as earlier news in this post makes clear.
• Deb Fischer (R-NE) vs Dan Osborn (I-NE) is another hot race, as a previous post indicated Osborn is pushing Fischer hard.
• Josh Hawley (R-MO) vs Lance Kunce (D-MO) may also be hotter than I predicted.
• If Senator Fischer (R-NE) is in trouble, her colleague Pete Ricketts (also R-NE) may also be in trouble. Come on, pollsters, prove me right.
• Rick Scott (R-FL) is barely holding off Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, so this is hot.
• Jim Justice (R-WV)’s position with regard to challenger Glenn Elliott is not known at the moment, so it’s hot until it’s not. It’s probably not.

I left Senators Wicker (R-MS) and Blackburn (R-TN) off as they seem relatively safe, though lacking relevant polling.

Until next time, stay safe.

[Published Aug 26]

Today’s nominee for Trump devotee is a specialist, it appears, in the fine Republican art of projection. The honored nominee’s name is Rob Schmitt, and he’s a host for cable news show and partisan Republican wannabe institution, Newsmax. This is provided by Media Matters For America:

… I think that when you put a poll out there that makes it look like Kamala is doing well, it creates the idea in a lot of people’s minds that aren’t intelligent enough to think for themselves that, oh, she must be better than I think she is. Or is she — obviously, people obviously like her, so I should like her too. I mean, this kind of polling, in my opinion, is dangerous and it’s almost like election meddling in a way to put a poll out there like that and have it this skewed.

… aren’t intelligent enough to think for themselves … Goodness. In the 2022 Senate elections, looking back, it was quite clear that there were a number of “pollsters” who thought they could influence the election by nudging voters to the right. For example, read this bit about Senator Hassan (D-NH) vs Don Bolduc (R-NH) in 2022:

In New Hampshire, some conservative pollsters gave challenger Don Bolduc (R) a small lead over Senator Hassan (D), while others called it a dead heat. Then pollster Lowell Center gave Hassan a ten point lead, pointedly out of step with everyone else. Hassan’s final margin of victory? 10 points.

I failed to find similar profiles for liberal pollsters, so, when I see frenzied claims like this from Schmitt, I see a ludicrous loyalty to Mr Trump, from a news station which should, but fails to, at least try to present itself as neutral, and not engage in the same insulting behaviors as does Mr. Trump.

This is way out of bounds for any reasonable person. Which makes him a Landgrebe, someone frantically flailing after social position that’s been lost because their idol has been shown to have feet of clay. All they know to do is what they did yesterday; I suppose the claim that this was inevitable is quite reasonable.

In The Dash

Last night I heard snippets of various DNC speeches as my Arts Editor caught up on the news, and a common theme is that this is going to be a close Presidential race. But I have my doubts. Between dementia and Dobbs, Federal debt and a pack of fourth-raters (Representatives Comer, Jordan, Gaetz, Greene, Boebert are just some of the names that come to mind), I suspect Harris will win all the States Biden won, with Georgia being the biggest question mark, and she’ll pick up North Carolina, which is afflicted with a nutty Republican candidate for Governor, current Lt Governor Robinson, and one more State. But which?

Possibly huge Ohio, which may be so repulsed by Senator Vance’s poor judgment, along with Trump’s narcissism, that they may go Democratic. Ah, but for a poll … oh, here comes one now! Fairleigh Dickinson University (2.6/3 on the FiveThirtyEight pollster rating scale) is giving Harris a lead nationally:

Voters nationally give Vice President and Democratic nominee Kamala Harris an edge over former President Donald Trump in November’s election by a seven-point margin (50 to 43), but race and gender remains central to the vote. When voters are made to think about the race or gender of the candidates, Harris’ lead grows substantially; when they’re not, support is essentially tied. Harris is also helped by strong support among the slightly less than half of men who reject traditionally masculine identities. Trump’s strongest support is among men who hold traditionally masculine identities, while women and other men strongly favor Harris.

Caveats galore, but I think it’s a sign of a future where Trump tries desperately to slime Harris into a coma, and she and Walz pick and pick at him while letting him hang himself with the voters. A seven point lead is bloody huge, you know, when Harris’ predecessor, President Biden, was chronically trailing.

Keep in mind, of course, that the popular vote does not categorically determine the Electoral College vote, which is a scandal in the minds of many Americans. And then there’s the perplexing Trumpian claim that he doesn’t need any more votes, he has plenty of votes. Maybe votes is a synonym for money? Maybe he’ll employ violence to gain a victory? Using fourth-raters prone to delusion isn’t a promising fighting force, so it seems unlikely. There is some concern about the electoral positions being occupied by MAGA and allies, but a reminder to them that abusing their positions could end poorly should help matters.

Or does Trump think a depleted Russian Army will come pouring over Niagara Falls? OK, I said that purely for the humor. Mostly.

Look for more pollsters to echo these results, even amplifying them much to Trump’s frustration.

Oh, And This …

From WaPo:

Seen at the Minnesota State Fair, 2024 edition:

My Arts Editor suggested the post title should be Chickens In Prison.

Steve Benen predicts the future:

Melissopalynology:

Melissopalynology is the study of pollen in honey. The term comes from the Greek words for “bee” and “honey” along with the words for “study of dust,” which now refers to “pollen.” Today, it is recognized worldwide as being the least expensive and quickest way to determine the floral contents and geographical origin of honey. However, the effectiveness of the technique depends on the skills of the pollen analysis (palynologist), the method of extracting the pollen from honey samples, and the skill of the analyst in interpreting the results. Today honey has become an important commercial business and provides sweetness used in thousands of products. [Bee Culture]

Noted in “How clues in honey can help fight our biggest biodiversity challenges,” Graham Lawton, NewScientist (10 August 2024, paywall):

The idea that honey contains biological fingerprints of its origins isn’t new. In 1895, a German chemist by the name of Pfister (his forename is lost in the mists of time) examined samples of honey under a microscope and noted that the pollen grains within were diagnostic of where the honey was made. Thus began the science of melissopalynology, the visual analysis of pollen grains in honey to determine its geographical origin.