Category Archives: Uncategorized

A lovely embroidered something or other at The Museum of Russian Art.

On display on the main floor. In case you’re concerned, TMORA is a firm backer of Ukraine.

Something on your mind, lass?

The Extraordinary Adventures of Adèle Blanc-Sec (2010) features a 1900s Adèle striving to revive her beloved sister, Agathe, who appears to be brain-damaged in a most unfortunate manner. A horde of incompetent men hamper, pursue, and otherwise annoy Adèle – and the audience – as she searches for a solution in the ancient ways of the world. But will she find it, or will those ancient ways find her?

Gorgeously photographed and not badly acted, it is far less than the sum of its part. Buffoons as foils has its virtues, but sharply limited virtues; Adèle working in the company of competent men, good or evil, would last far longer as an entertainment mechanism.

And the pterodactyl, as much as a scene-stealer as it is, made little to no sense.

Sorry, I cannot recommend.

My Arts Editor, in her roles as sewist, tailor, and designer, checks out the work of the professionals on the Fashion Feed channel hosted by YouTube, and sometimes I join in, too. This one left us in stitches…

“Not a single tidy whitey, Paul?”

The Cheap Detective (1978) is a parody of a cross of two famous detective stories, The Maltese Falcon (1941) and Casablanca (1942), peppered with riffs on classic tropes, and laden generously with stars of the period, led by Peter Falk.

And that’s about it. The riffs carry the show, yet they don’t really reveal much more about the genre and its shared mythos. You laugh, but so quickly you forget.

Accrual tax:

But Biden’s third proposal — taxing unrealized capital gains as income — is just more trouble than it’s worth. Capital gains taxes are collected only when you sell an asset. This has long irked progressives, who grumble at the idea that rich people are seeing their wealth increase by leaps and bounds every year without being taxed a penny.

Biden’s plan would “fix” this problem by taxing asset appreciation before the assets are sold — an idea that’s sometimes called an accrual tax. But as I wrote in Bloomberg back in 2019, this could seriously hurt startup formation … [“Biden is right that we need to raise taxes,” Noah Smith, Noahpinion]

Rather like taxing someone’s imagination.

For those readers worrying about the fate of Speaker of the Wisconsin House Robin Vos (R-WI), you can put yourself at ease:

The bipartisan Wisconsin Elections Commission on Thursday rejected an effort to force a recall election of the state’s top Republican after determining that not enough valid signatures were collected.

The vote by three Republican commissioners and one Democratic commissioner means Assembly Speaker Robin Vos will not have to stand for a recall election unless a court intervenes. Vos was targeted for recall by fellow Republicans and supporters of former President Donald Trump.

Recall organizers targeted Vos, the longest-serving Assembly speaker in Wisconsin history, after he refused calls to decertify President Joe Biden’s narrow win in the state. Biden’s win of about 21,000 votes has withstood two partial recounts, lawsuits, an independent audit and a review by a conservative law firm.

Vos further angered Trump supporters when he did not back a plan to impeach Meagan Wolfe, the state’s top elections official. [AP]

Described as an extremist (but not listed in On The Issues), Vos would have to be to be Speaker of the Wisconsin House. He refused to decertify the official Wisconsin electors to the Electoral College not because of personal foible or whimsical folly, but because Wisconsin law does not permit such an action by the Wisconsin Speaker, or so I read.

The law can function as an impermeable wall, and while the unelected can shriek, childishly, all they want about what they want, those who are staring penalties in the face, who suddenly discover reality is waiting to carry them away for a terrible day on the Antarctic continent, will, more often than not, change their tune; those who don’t more often find themselves running for refuge in the Cayman Islands, or sitting in the pokey, as they discover their elevated social position does not permit them to ignore the law.

I don’t write the above for my own amusement, but to make a point for the non-political reader who is uneasily trying to make sense of a political ocean suddenly awash in unfamiliar creatures talking about events from long ago (more than two years, that is), and weeping that they accomplished this or that and are not getting credit. Meanwhile, another set of creatures dispute the first set of claims.

Who to believe?

How about treat them like children? Those who behave like spoiled brats are disbelieved first, because, as we all know^[1], spoiled brats have no allegiance to truth and honesty, and that’s what most of us believe is necessary for good and effective government. The other kids are at least struggling to integrate an allegiance to truth with their natural narcissism, and some of them are doing admirably well.

In the above example, we can see the Republicans, both the unnamed managers of the Vos recall effort, as well as Mr. Trump, exhibit the behavior of spoiled brats, angrily demanding what they cannot have, and when told No!, screaming all the louder executing idiotic legal actions.

This emblematic action is why every voter who considers themselves a good person should not vote for Mr. Trump. Yes, both sides are flawed, but I believe the Democrats are better suited for governance than the current set of brats making up the Republicans, from dog-catcher to SCOTUS justice. They just need some correction.

¹ Or should know. Except for the spoiled brats who survived to childhood. Many of them cling to their anti-social personality, but learn to play nice with others. We normal types like to call them sociopaths, and, in our lazy moments, dream of permanently ridding ourselves of them.

Getting into the rhythm of the … OUCH. Faceplant! Medic!

Observed While Wilding

Over the last couple of weeks it sure seems like mediocre or worse pollsters are putting out numerous polls compared to highly rated pollsters, which means high-quality information is scarce on the ground relative to low-quality information. It leads to thoughts concerning intellectually despicable attempts to influence the electorate by dispensing polls which do not reflect the information collected as honestly adjusted.

And, while so far it mostly seems to be right-wing pollsters, there’s nothing to stop left-wing pollsters, excepting, of course, concern about their reputations. On the left, they try harder to select for the most vulnerable Republican candidates during primary voting, so nobody’s hands are clean.

And what is the percentage of the electorate paying attention to polls, anyways?

And Then Came The News

• How influential might USA TODAY be? Virginia’s GOP candidate for the Senate, retired Navy Captain Hung Cao (R-VA), may have been caught in a fit of exaggeration, according to the national news source:
  

  The Republican candidate for U.S. Senate in Virginia, a decorated Navy veteran, has made repeated references to becoming disabled after he was “blown up” in combat, and has stressed that he has scars from his military service while Democratic incumbent Sen. Tim Kaine got rich from the safety of Capitol Hill.

  Yet the Navy service record for Hung Cao, who won the GOP primary in June, does not show a Purple Heart award, the commendation given to troops who have suffered wounds from “direct or indirect result of enemy action” that required medical attention. Nor does his record indicate that he received the Navy’s Combat Action Ribbon, which requires that a sailor “must have rendered satisfactory performance under enemy fire while actively participating in ground or surface combat engagement.” USA TODAY obtained Cao’s record from the Navy.

  While I can see this excusing the claim as a bit of word play,

  The Navy designated him a “special operations explosive ordnance disposal/dive officer.”

  … this brings it all back into play, in Cao’s own words.

  “I’m 100% disabled, you know, because just from being blown up in combat many times and everything else, you know, knee, shoulders,” Cao said on April 22, 2022. “I’ve got more surgeries than you could possibly imagine.”

  Veterans in particular hate exaggeration and outright lying concerning military records, although I suspect the truth is more mundane: unfortunate minor incidents during training and the like, slightly amplified. But how many Virginia voters read USA TODAY? Or will other, more local news reporting sources pick this up?

• Much like Senator Tester (D-MT), Nevada’s Senator Rosen (D-NV) may benefit from a pro-choice initiative on the Nevada ballot:
  

  Supporters collected and submitted more than 200,000 signatures, Nevadans for Reproductive Freedom President Lindsey Harmon told reporters. Proponents need 102,000 valid signatures by June 26 to qualify for the ballot.

  This was achieved May 20 and I missed it.

• Torchlight Strategies doesn’t appear to be in FiveThirtyEight’s ratings list, but it has a poll finding Republican Tim Sheehy (R-MT) well ahead of Montana’s Senator Tester (D-MT) at 47%-41%. That the sponsor of the poll is Common Sense for America, which FiveThirtyEight lists as a Republican-aligned PAC, simply reinforces my notion that this poll is not worth considering by serious analysts and concerned citizens. Or, if you prefer, visualize a John Cleese silly walk, performed while the walker holds a placard with the Torchlight results on it, but the ink is dribbling into incoherence, and the walker’s pockets spill dollar bills.
• co/efficient (1.2) is giving Rep Kim (D-NJ) a 7 point lead over Republican Curtis Bashaw (R-NJ), 41%-34%, for Senator Menendez’s (I-NJ) seat in New Jersey. If the Senator is included in the poll then he picks up 3% of the voters, Kim loses 2 points, and Bashaw loses 1. co/efficient has a very low rating, but it remains interesting that Menendez doesn’t score well in this poll. If co/efficient leans Republican then Rep Kim seems a safe bet.
• In Michigan EPIC-MRA (2.0) is giving Rep Slotkin (D-MI) a two point edge over former Rep Mike Rogers (R-MI), 44%-42%. With a margin of error of four points, it sounds like a dead heat, and a nail biter. It’s worth noting that in the last Michigan race for the US Senate, Peters (D) vs James (R) in 2020, the incumbent Peters beat the inexperienced James by less than two points. The Michigan non-dormant electorate is polarized, even if in the last election a lot of disgust was shown for the Republicans by electing Democrats to all the state-wide offices. The winner may be the candidate best able to wake up dormant voters, and Dobbs may do just that for Slotkin.
• We may be seeing deception in New Mexico, where 1892 Polling (1.4) is giving Senator Heinrich (D-NM) a mere four point lead, 46%-42%, over poll sponsor and Republican candidate Nella Domenici (R-NM). I report this poll not as an alarm signal, but as an instance of probable deception. Or it’s an example of the observer disturbing the observed to an unacceptable degree. The poll is probably not worth the time.
• Pennsylvania’s Senator Casey (D-PA) has a four point lead over challenger David McCormick (R-PA?), 46%-42%, according to Cygnal (2.1), an alarming measurement for Democrats, but notably out of line with other pollsters. I also notice the Cygnal press release was tootling its own horn: Cygnal, one of the nation’s fastest growing and most accurate private polling firms … I consider that to be a red flag, even if a 2.1 rating isn’t too bad. Another pollster, the unknown Bullfinch Group, gives Senator Casey a substantial 12 point lead, 48%-36%. This poll has a sponsor, Commonwealth Foundation, which may be Republican-aligned (“Defending Pennsylvania from Anti-Energy Policies” seems Republican to me), although I find that a bit puzzling, given the poll finding. Without a rating it’s not clear that any weight should be given to the Bullfinch Group’s poll.

Yesterday was very nice for the clematis.

And then a bonus moth. Or butterfly. Painted lady?

So, considering the latest conservative wing of SCOTUS‘ attempt at, you know, actually thinking, I derive this suddenly probable scenario:

1. Your next autocratic President takes offense at some ruling of SCOTUS. Or, if you prefer, President Biden takes offense.
2. He marches over to see SCOTUS, currently in session.
3. He uses his handy-dandy Glock to shoot Chief Justice Roberts right between the eyes.
4. He proclaims it an official act – Correcting the judgment of the Chief Justice, as I recall the news networks later reporting. He is thus immunized from the consequences of his actions.
5. He returns to work in the Oval Office. Some reports had him grinning with glee.

A few years ago, Chief Justice Roberts proclaimed the Federal judiciary as politics free. It would appear that SCOTUS has now submitted to the conservative game plan. The Chief Justice’s place in history will not be hallowed, I fear. Rather, it’ll be covered in bullet holes.

Previously, on Dragnet …

Coattails

For those young readers who’ve not paid attention to politics – understandable, it’s a dreadful business, but part of your civic duty – past general election coverage has often featured the question of metaphorical coattails: how much the Presidential candidates’ popularity will enhance the election chances of other members of the Party, sometimes known as downballot influence. These are often overestimated, in my opinion, but this election cycle is certainly different from the general run of election cycles, as the switch from Biden to Harris by the Democrats gives an unprecedented opportunity for before-and-after polling. Unfortunately, President Biden failed to give the pollsters a full month’s warning.

That said, Mz Harris’ selection of Governor Tim Walz (D-MN) as her running mate (vice president for the first-time voter – we do like our political jargon here in the States) leads to similar questions. As a white, plump guy who grew up in a rural area and worked on a farm, graduated from Chadron State College (compare with Mz Harris’ degree from Howard, Mr Trump’s from Wharton, and Mr Vance’s from Yale), twenty four year career in the Army National Guard, including deployments, working in a factory and as a high school teacher and football coach, moving on to a successful political career as the Representative for for Minnesota’s 1st congressional district elected in 2006, and then elected Governor of Minnesota in 2018, Walz will have an outsized appeal to the white guy segment of the electorate.

He projects being plain-spoken, full of self-deprecating humor, and may have the most effective personal presence of the four. His résumê is just bang-on to appeal to the white guy segment of the electorate, a bare majority of which still lean towards Trump / Vance, some believing that Mr Trump is an iconic businessman and boss, others worried about Democratic policies, realized or potential, true or propaganda.

And how does this play into the Senate races that are still undecided? I think coattails can be effective. If Governor Walz avoids the various potholes certain to be strewn in his path by the Republicans, he may move some voters out of the Republican column, and some of those may even vote Democratic. His invention of the Republicans are weird meme has certainly been effective, and who wants to vote for the weird ticket?

Time will tell.

Republicans, of course, claim Walz is a terrible pick, a leftist who lies about his military record. Here, for instance, is WaPo’s Marc Thiessen rattling on about Harris’ “unforced error.” For very long-term readers, this would be the same Marc Thiessen who tried to make the case that Mr Trump was the most honest politician ever; I commented on that exercise in poor judgment in one of my more popular posts.

Yeah, he’s a real hack, like most conservative pundits these days.

Mz Harris, speaking of coattails, fared better than President Biden in the latest Marist College poll (2.9 in the FiveThirtyEight pollster ratings), taking a three point lead over Mr Trump, which is within the margin of error.

Primaries

There were several primaries since the last Senate campaign update, and I summarize them below. In case you were worried, no, there are still a few primaries in the future for this cycle.

Facts On The Ground, Please Do Not Trample

• Speaking of primaries, yes, it will be Rep Gallego (D-AZ) vs election-denier and former newscaster Kari Lake (R-AZ) in Arizona for its open seat in the US Senate. Democrat Gallego was unchallenged in the primary, while Republican Lake defeated Mark Lamb 53.8%-40.3%. Lamb can probably be considered to be to the right of Lake, since, as Sheriff of Pinal County, Arizona during the pandemic years, he stated he would not enforce “stay at home” laws, but that doesn’t make Lake a moderate. The actual and also-ran Republican moderate, Elizabeth Reyes, won 5.9% of Republican primary votes, suggesting Arizona Republicans have, indeed, jumped off the cliff. Gallego won just short of 400,000 votes in the primary, but as an unopposed candidate interest may have flagged, while Lake and Lamb won an aggregate of just less than 500,000 votes. Can Lake attract Lamb voters, or are they too embittered to vote for Lake? Can she attract enough independent voters, given her well-displayed extremist tendencies? I tend to think not.

  In the only poll I’ve seen since the primary, HighGround (1.7) gives Gallego a big lead of 50%-39% over Lake, with independents stampeding to Gallego by 18 points. However, notably the sample size is only 500 likely voters. The same pollster gives Mz Harris a smaller lead over Mr Trump of less than three points, within the margin of error. The Senate result brings into question whether Arizona is still contested, or if it’s decided. It also brings into focus the question of the Arizona Republicans’ leaderships’ durability. Ever since the 2020 election it’s strongly resembled a tire fire built by squabbling fourth-raters.

• 

  On The Issues: Senator Marsha Blackburn (R-TN).

  Tennessee’s Senator Blackburn (R-TN) won her primary against Tres Wittum (R-TN) with nearly 90% of the primary vote, amounting to 367,711 ballots. Her opponent will be Tennessee State Representative Gloria Johnson (D-TN), who beat three other candidates with 70+% of the Democratic primary vote, amounting to 143,904 ballots. These numbers are not favorable for the Democrats, and so it seems likely that Tennessee voters will reward Senator Blackburn for her far-right views once again.

• Senator Cantwell (D-WA) of Washington came out on top in the jungle primary used in the Washington Senate race, consisting of promoting the top two finishers to the general election. The Senator won 57.9% of the ballots. In second place, and her opponent in November, is Raul Garcia (R-WA), with 21.3% of the vote. Although Mr. Garcia will certainly pick up some of those votes garnered by candidates who didn’t qualify for the general, as well as those voters who didn’t participate in the primary, it seems unlikely he’ll surpass Senator Cantwell, barring a black swan event. I’ll desist from progress reports on this race unless a surprise occurs.
• Missouri’s Senator Hawley (R-MO) won his primary with 601,906 ballots, and he was unopposed. His opponent in November will be Lance Kunce (D-MO), who won his primary with 255,309 ballots and 67.7% of the votes. The total vote count for the Democratic primary? 377,321 ballots, split between Kunce and three other hopefuls.

  Will Missouri independents, outraged and appalled by the Dobbs decision, support Kunce in such numbers as to overrun Senator Hawley? It seems unlikely, although former Senator McCaskill (D-MO) did something similar in 2012, defeating the late Todd Akin (R-MO) after he expressed an appalling extremist opinion on abortion that Missouri voters simply could not accept. While Senator Hawley has stated extremist positions that outrage many people, I do not expect him to put his foot in his mouth to the extent that he follows Akin into a shocking defeat. I will desist from further reports on this race unless something interesting comes up.

• As expected, in Michigan the race for the open Senate seat will be between Rep Slotkin (D-MI) and former Rep and hard-liner Mike Rogers (R-MI). Slotkin had 80+% of the Democratic vote, or 528,099 ballots, while Rogers had 62.8% of the Republican votes, or 460,959 ballots. However, overall there were more Republican than Democratic ballots. Whether or not Rogers can attract enough votes to beat Slotkin remains an open question, and Slotkin has consistenly lead in polls, but often within the margin of error.

  The first poll of which I’m aware since the primary is from top-rated The New York Times/Siena College (3.0), giving Rep Slotkin a slender lead of 46%-43%.

• Ask and ye shall find … In Florida, the University of North Florida Public Opinion Research Lab, currently carrying a hefty 2.8/3 rating from FiveThirtyEight, gives Senator Rick Scott (R-FL) a 47%-43% lead over former Rep Mucarsel-Powell (D-FL), no doubt in response to my pleas for more polls of Florida. Is Florida drifting away from the Democratic dream? Or are chronic young voter undercounts skewing the poll? That’s hard to say, but, speaking of coattails, the Miami Herald notes Mz Harris’ popularity is greatly overshadowing that of President Biden:
  

  Less than three weeks after emerging as the de facto Democratic presidential nominee, Vice President Kamala Harris has opened up a double-digit lead over former President Donald Trump in Miami-Dade County, according to a new poll from a top Miami Democratic consultant.

  The survey, released Thursday by Democratic strategist Christian Ulvert, a top campaign adviser to several Miami-Dade candidates including Mayor Daniella Levine Cava, shows Harris notching the support of nearly 54% of Miami-Dade likely voters. Trump, a South Florida resident with an outsized business presence in the county, has just under 40% support. The poll’s margin of error is 4.6 percentage points.

  The poll of 1,071 of likely general election voters in Miami-Dade County, conducted over the first five days of August by Plantation-based MDW Communications, is likely to be touted as a sign of improving fortunes for Democrats, who have faced an increasingly difficult political terrain in Florida in recent years. Trump carried the state in both 2016 and 2020, while the 2022 midterm elections saw Republicans win supermajorities in both chambers of the state Legislature and clinch every statewide elected office. …

  While he’s already widely expected to win Florida overall in November, speculation has swirled among both Republicans and Democrats about whether Trump might be able to capture Miami-Dade. A survey commissioned by Ulvert last November found Trump leading President Joe Biden by 11 percentage points in the county.

  Can Mucarsel-Powell translate that movement into votes for herself in the Senate race? If so, that may push her over the top.

• In Pennsylvania, Susquehanna Polling & Research (2.3) gives Senator Casey (D-PA) a 47%-42% lead over challenger David McCormick (R-PA?). This race may still be hot. It is not clear if this pollster, unfamiliar to me but with a respectable FiveThirtyEight rating, has a bias, as they’re giving Harris a four point lead over Trump in the same poll.

  But for comparison, consider the poll numbers supplied by The New York Times/Siena College (top-rated 3.0): 51%-37%. That, folks, is almost unreal in comparison to other poll numbers, but despite the anger some progressives had with this pollster combination, it has to be taken seriously. Perhaps McCormick is finished.

• We haven’t heard about Ohio of late, so even the results of frankensteinian Fabrizio, Lee & Associates/Impact Research (1.7) are welcome. They show Senator Brown (D-OH) continues to lead challenger Bernie Moreno (R-OH?), 46%-42%.
• Pollage is now available for New York’s Senate race, and it’s not pretty for Republicans, as Siena College (2.7; this is not The New York Times/Siena College, which tops the FiveThirtyEight ratings at 3.0) gives Senator Gillibrand (D-NY) a 56%-33% lead over challenger Mike Sapraicone (R-NY), and unrated pollster ActiVote gives the Senator a bigger lead at 63%-37%. In the latter case, the margin of error is 4.9% due to the small number of voters (n=400) surveyed, while Siena College surveyed 1199 voters; I suspect ActiVote is cheaping out on actual data collection, which is understandable in an era in which good data collection is becoming increasingly difficult. I’ll desist from further New York reports unless something unusual occurs.
• The Massachusetts primaries are still a month off, and the Berkshire Eagle has a profile of two of the three Republicans who’ve entered the primary in order to challenge Senator Warren (D-MA); the third is a Trump groupie who does not have a chance in Massachusetts, according to profile author, local political columnist Bill Everhart. The other two, men named Deaton and Cain, according to Everhart seem to be moderate Republicans, perhaps even Republicans of the future, after the current dumpster fire that encompasses everyone from Vance to McConnell burns out. However, one aspect he mentions that troubles me is that both Deaton and Cain are connected to the cryptocurrency industry. Long-term readers know that, so far, my view of cryptocurrency is that it is an essential tool in the grifters’ toolbox, and that, as a whole, there is little wholesomely unique about it. Further, the cryptocurrency industry has been seeking to influence various members of Congress, generally in order to avoid regulation. So is Deaton and/or Cain a grifter? Or just another arrogant libertarian who thinks he’s found the cure for inflation, with little regard as to whether the cure has unintended consequences, never mind if it solves the putative problem.

  Warren is unchallenged in her primary.

• The Marquette University Law School (3.0 and #3 in the FiveThirtyEight rankings) has some bad news for Eric Hovde (R-WI?), challenger to Senator Baldwin (D-WI), issuing a 51%-45% ranking in favor of the Senator. It’s not just the 6 point gap, but that Senator Baldwin is in the magic land of 50+%. Removing the two non-major party candidates pushes Baldwin up to 52%.

  And the waves keep coming, as The New York Times/Siena College (top rated at 3.0) is giving the Senator a 51%-44% lead. That’s the third and fourth top pollsters to give the Senator a 50+% rating recently, meaning the Wisconsin race might not be worthy of further comment unless Senator Baldwin’s numbers dip. I’ll desist.

• In Montana, Republican Tim Sheehy (R-MT) has a small lead, 48%-46%, over Senator Tester (D-MT), according to Emerson College (2.9). If that holds up then it’s likely that the Republicans will take control of the Senate. In what seems a bit of unfair news, WaPo reports Sheehy’s business, a firefighting company, is losing money. While that’s applicable to any claims Sheehy makes to leadership, from the report it just seems that a quieter-than-expected fire season is to blame.
• Republicans looking to challenge Senator Murphy (D-CT) in Connecticut are profiled here; their primary is August 13th, coming right up.
• In Delaware the primaries for the Democrats and Republicans have been canceled due to lack of participants. Representative Lisa Blunt Rochester (D-DE) will be vying with Eric Hansen (R-DE) for retiring Senator Carper’s (D-DE) seat, and, while there are no recent polls of which I’m aware, Rep Rochester would seem favored to win.
• In New Mexico, challenger Nella Domenici (R-NM) has a nickname brought on by the bad behaviors and policies of Mr Trump:
  

  T.J. Trout, host of a show at KKOB, a commercial AM radio station licensed to Albuquerque, said he was not “trying to make you look bad” in reference to Domeneci’s cancelation [of an interview], who has been labelled in the past by Democrats in New Mexico as “No Answer Nella” for her refusal to answer tough questions in her quest to unseat Heinrich. …

  Trout said that the Domenici campaign had a problem with “at least the first three questions” which he labeled as “political questions” about former President Donald Trump.

  This could become a significant drag on Republican candidates who refuse to be associated with the former President. Voters will either feel the candidates are not candid, or are abandoning the former President. Republicans beware.

Now go relax.

Just think about all the snow you’ll be shoveling in a few months.

This is where awareness of confirmation bias must play into how one reads a post, as DoctorBeast68 on Daily Kos writes about the aftermath of the Presidential debate of last Thursday:

Amid all the handwringing and gnashing of teeth, something remarkable is happening in this country this week. While the MSM [Main street media, aka traditional media sources] all but coronated Trump following CNN’s televised Trump rally (aka “the debate”), their narrative is rapidly falling apart and they have no idea how to handle it. Post debate polls show Biden GAINING support while TFG is dropping. There are reports that Trump is furious over these post debate polls. Could it be that 90 minutes of deranged hyperbolic ugliness and utter nonsense spewed by Trump actually reminded Americans why we came to despise this convicted felon four years ago?

Written in typical Daily Kos patois, it’s a red flag that this sort of thing should be verified by the reader. But no links are provided to relevant polls. Now, I can believe what the writer is saying, and readers shouldn’t be surprised, given what I said Friday. But I’m wary.

And, yes, I know links may be provided in comments. I’ve read Daily Kos comments, though, and they generally just irritate me. And then I wonder how many are written by saboteurs and infiltrators.

But it’s telling that Erick Erickson doesn’t lead off his latest column with an attack on Biden concerning the debate. Oh, he gets to it, eventually, but the lead-off is basically him telling his fellow conservatives to … give up the self-delusion schtick:

Here’s my frustration with the state of conservative media and online punditry. You can conjure the most outlandish theories and never have to say you’re sorry. And you can conjure those theories while connecting dots to lead you out of the theory you know isn’t true and everyone just shrugs. And it is far easier to go with the herd than say what you know to be true.

I knew CNN would do a fine debate. Tapper and Bash are professionals. There was no delay in the feed. They were not going to edit Joe Biden both because they would not and it would be technically impossible while also distributing a live feed to other networks. But much of the conservative online space wanted to believe. It was far easier to attack CNN pre-emptively than say the truth. And even now, there’ll be those who defensively insist telling the truth was wrong, a lie, or only a lucky guess.

When truth and honesty are no longer the currency of the conservatives, this is what you’re going to see. This is why I don’t go to web sites with a reputation for conservatism very often, because whether it’s Alex Jones or Sean Hannity or Tucker Carlson, I know they will put no value on honest evaluations.

For all I know, Erickson may be the exception to the rule, but, in addition to often simply being wrong, he’ll nastily stretch a point. In this case, as with many others that I’ve noticed, he’s trying to keep the herd together by smearing various Democrats and, of course, President Biden:

But beyond everything above, if Biden leaves office where does he go? Does he go home to his two drug-addicted children with a dog that bites while his wife resents him for giving up the presidency? Biden would be sitting at home on election night watching a historically unpopular Kamala Harris lose every traditional swing state and put places like Virginia, Minnesota, and Colorado in play.

Stretching reality to convince citizens to remain in the conservative circle runs the risk of distorting their grasp on reality beyond control – and your own grasp on reality.

But who doesn’t get the time of day from Erickson in this message? Mr. Trump. Just an oversight? Off in another message? Or is Mr. Trump’s slipping grasp on honesty and truth so unpalatable that Erickson doesn’t dare go near it? I mean this quite literally, as Erickson has a stock story about being implicitly threatened with one or more guns when he didn’t initially support Mr Trump back in 2015 or 2016. Maybe he has worries about the safety of his family. From his own people.

Tells you why most Republicans qualify as fourth-raters.

So it’s four years old. It still makes me laugh.

Tenebrism:

If we are looking for a tenebrism art definition, we could say that tenebrism is a painting technique that uses deep darkness to generate a spotlight effect around well-lit objects. Tenebrism is widely seen in Italian and Spanish baroque works and is closely connected to the chiaroscuro artistic method, which is based on the equally stark juxtaposition of light and dark. [Art In Context]

Noted in “A rare U.S. Caravaggio masterpiece shows how a murderer painted death,” Sebastian Smee, WaPo:

So the whole picture is involving. But what I am repeatedly drawn to is not the baroque space or Caravaggio’s tenebrism (his brilliant manipulation of pockets of lights within enveloping darkness). It’s not the operatic drama of the two elevated bodies, one curving slackly to the right, the other listing leftward, like heavy, three-day-old tulips in a vase.

I did not watch the Presidential debate this week, but I’ve seen a few clips. All of those involving President Biden made me wince, but not because his responses suggested incompetence. Instead, it evoked the empathetic response of I’ve had bad head colds. too.

But when Mr. Trump appeared, what struck me was how everything he said was a lie, an unearned boast, a claim shorn of important context, and from what I’ve heard and read, that applied to all he said.

It appears to me that Mr. Trump is the stricken one here. It’s becoming apparent that Mr. Trump has completely lost the capability to operate with truth. His connection with reality, and consequently America, is gone; his driving narcissism and, possibly, religious passion, has caused him to enter a terminal tail-spin that should probably place him in a mental hospital for his own safety.

Will everyone figure this out? I figure the answer to that is No, a lot of pundits, driven by money and employer expectation, will call for Biden to retire, probably in favor of Vice President Kamala Harris. And there’s quite a few already doing so, using obviously cute approaches to signal their employers that they’re doing their jobs.

Keep your mind and eyes open, folks, and watch how the polls come out – and how those pollsters rate.

Kiyah Willis on Journal of Free Black Thought has an important observation she makes off the cuff:

But this led to a moral crisis. What I believed to be moral and what I believed to be true were at odds. And it wasn’t just this dilemma—I’d discovered a serious flaw in my entire path of thinking, a deeper philosophical issue. Were reality and morality incompatible? Surely, that couldn’t be right.

Morality, like a lot of human activities, evolves, and evolution is a messy, and sometimes unsuccessful, business. If your morality extinguishes your culture, your species, well, was your morality, ah, moral? Can a lion successfully be vegetarian?

It’s a big country, even when counting Senators.

• In Montana, Montanans Securing Reproductive Rights has been working hard, and announced completion of the first step of its purpose, which is to safeguard abortion rights.
  

  The group behind Constitutional Initiative 128, Montanans Securing Reproductive Rights, said in a Friday press conference that it had collected more than 117,000 signatures since early April, about 57,000 more than the necessary 60,359. [Montana Free Press]

  This may turn out to be significant for Senator Tester (D-MT), who is engaged in a currently close re-election contest with Tim Sheehy (R-MT). The opportunity to vote for protection of abortion rights may draw out otherwise uninterested voters, and Tester’s alignment with abortion rights will attract those voters. Of course, the same reasoning may apply to Mr. Sheehy, but the usual thinking is that anti-abortion voters have been fully energized prior to the Dobbs decision, but Dobbs energized previously dormant pro-choice voters. Fabrizio, Lee & Associates/(no partner, just to emphasize) (1.7, just as when it collaborates with Democrat-aligned Impact Research), a Republican pollster, measures Montana’s Senator Tester (D-MT) and challenger Tim Sheehy (R-MT) as even at 48% apiece. Seeing as the sponsor is Republican-aligned More Jobs, Less Government, I suspect Senator Tester is more likely ahead than behind. However, Fabrizio, et al, claims that adding in third party candidates and Tester loses five points, while Sheehy only loses two. Hmmmmmm.

• With the primaries still to come in Missouri, Senator Josh Hawley (R-MO) has a comfortable 9 point lead, 47%-38%, over prospective Democratic nominee Lucas Kunce (D-MO), according to Emerson College Polling (FiveThirtyEight pollster rating of 2.9/3). Hawley’s previous victory in 2018 was by nearly six points over incumbent Senator Claire McCaskill (D-MO).
• Prospective nominee Kari Lake (R-AZ) for the Arizona Senate seat finally has a good polling result, down only 1 to Rep Ruben Gallego (D-AZ), 39%-38%. Unfortunately for Lake, the pollster is North Star Opinion Research, owner of a mediocre 1.2 rating, and the sponsor of the poll is American Greatness, a pro-Trump organization. I don’t take this one seriously, except to note that it’s probably trying to encourage conservative Arizonans to get out and vote in the primary, and encourage sheep-like behavior in independents in the general election.
• Public Policy Polling (1.4) gives Maryland Democrat Angela Alsobrooks (D-MD) an 8 point lead, 48%-40%, over former Governor Larry Hogan (R-MD), and that expands to 11 points if minor-party candidates are included. Public Policy Polling’s rating is very mediocre, though.
• Fabrizio, Lee & Associates/Impact Research (1.7), which is a pair of cooperating pollsters with Republican and Democratic links, respectively, tells the AARP that Senator Rosen (D-NV) of Nevada leads Republican candidate Sam Brown (R-NV) by five points, 47%-42%. These pollsters have worked together before, but a 1.7 suggests they are not balancing out as some might hope.
• Utah had its primaries last Tuesday, resulting in the Republicans selecting Rep John Curtis (R-UT) and the Democrats selecting Caroline Gleich (D-UT). Well, to be precise, Gleich’s primary was cancelled, as she was the only candidate for the Democrats in the primary, having won Party endorsement at their convention. However, another Democrat, Laird Hamblin (D-UT), is in the general election as a write-in, which may split the vote. Gleich also has no relevant experience, at least nothing is listed on Ballotpedia. It seems the Democrats are ill-organized in Utah.And for those who like a little schadenfreude in their breakfast cereal, Rep Curtis was not Mr Trump’s endorsee in this race, defeating that candidate by 20+ points. While it’s true that Rep Curtis garnered less than 52% of the Republican primary vote, the Utah Republicans don’t seem to be as deeply infected by pouty right wing fourth-raters as some States, and I expect them to pull together for an easy victory over Ms Gleich. This despite Rep Curtis being the replacement for Rep Chaffetz (R-UT), who resigned after various exhibitions of deep silliness a few years back. Updates on the Utah Senate race will only occur if something surprises me.
• In Texas Rep Allred’s (D-TX) Senate campaign finally received some good news as the UT Tyler Center for Opinion Research (1.7) suggests Senator Cruz’s (R-TX) lead is only three points, 45%-42%. But that rating of 1.7 does not inspire confidence in the accuracy of the poll. Its lack of congruency with the YouGov poll back a week or two, in which Cruz held an 11 point lead, also seems dismal. Still, a come from behind victory is often accompanied by a breakout point in which the leader’s margin is suddenly cut.
• Top rated Marquette University Law School (3.0) gives Wisconsin’s Senator Baldwin (D-WI) a five point lead over Republican challenger Eric Hovde (R-WI?), 52%-47%. Republican hopes may not be fading in Wisconsin, but Hovde does need another breakthrough, and if he’s the subject of chronic Republican underperformance, his troubles may be deeper than he realizes.
• The Virginia primary, skipped for the Democrats as Senator Kaine (D-VA) had no opponents, yielded Hung Cao (R-VA) as the Republican nominee for the Senate. He won more than 64% of the primary vote, but has little obvious relevant experience. Whether that matters in Virginia, which currently has a Republican governor, is an open question.
• And North Dakota has a poll result: Senator Cramer (R-ND) 65%, Katrina Christiansen (D-ND) 28%, or a 37 point lead for the incumbent Senator. And, yes, Public Opinion Strategies has a mediocre 1.7 rating, and the sponsor of the poll, Brighter Future Alliance, sure looks Republican-aligned, but this is North Dakota. Even if the Senator’s lead is considerably less in reality, it’ll remain a positive lead, as no one really says.

Long time readers know of my ill-considered inclination to compare the current state of the United States to the decay of the Roman Empire in terms of overpopulation and the deadly infighting experienced in Rome after the destruction of Gaul, but I think this is getting a bit ridiculous:

I just mentioned Trump Media & Technology Group Corp (DJT) just last week, the company behind Truth Social. Today, in the absence of substantive news, it looks like someone is trying to prop the DJT stock up:

Tomorrow DJT may go crashing back down. But it’s interesting to view this through a geopolitical lens, as it indicates to me that, given Mr Trump cannot yet sell his portion of DJT, and he may be having hysterics over its drop in value, someone may be trying to calm Mr. Trump down.

My bet is that it’s President Putin, but with a guy like Mr Trump and his evident willingness to sell to anyone with cash – and disregard the folks lacking cash – there are a lot of potential buyers, such as Mohammed bin Salman (de facto king of Saudi Arabia and accused murderer), etc.

This is an entertainment and entertaining stock, I’ll tell you.

This is what happens when your brain is addicted to logic.

In Mr. Holmes (2015), the famed private detective and logician is facing twin endings, of his career and his life, and the painful parallels of the two are examined in some detail.

And that’s about it.

It’s nicely acted and, overall, well done. But I never became excited by it. I mean, it’s been like a month since I saw it, and I’ve had no motivation to write this review.

So have at it. Perhaps it’ll appeal to you more than it did to me.

Remember Trump Media & Technology Group Corp (DJT)? Perhaps you even bought some stock to show you’re a part of the Trump group? How’s that working out for you? Here’s the six month chart for today from yahoo! finance:

That feeling when you realize your entire investment has gone ker-plunk.

This is an object lesson in what happens when a stock is evaluated on something other than its business fundamentals, in a nutshell. Will it recover? I doubt it. Their product offerings are paltry, and while lying comes naturally to Mr. Trump, I’m sure the other executives are well aware that freely wagging their tongues over corporate fantasies lacking a connection to reality could result in prison time if a shareholder, having subsequently lost their investment as DJT implodes, becomes irate and files a complaint with the SEC.

But, as a colleague of mine once observed, most dying stocks do enjoy dead cat bounces.

I knew about this. I wrote about it during the Obama Administration.

And, yet, I admit that I forgot about this and plum didn’t understand why Biden was permitting, in the technical sense, so much oil drilling and even releasing oil from the strategic reserves.

But Daily Kos‘ Mark Sumner reminds me:

In the last two years, President Joe Biden grabbed the oil markets by the throat and shook them. He’s not just lowered the price that Americans are paying for gas as they head out on summer vacation, he has sent a shockwave of fear through OPEC leaders like Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia Mohammed bin Salman and Russian President Vladimir Putin.

The urge to simplify foreign situations is understandable, but demands that fossil fuel pumping cease has the unfortunate – such a neutral word for such a complicated and dangerous situation – effect of strengthening the hand of genocidal maniac President Vladimir Putin, because Russia’s primary source of foreign revenue is fossil fuels. Biden better enabling fossil fuels lowers prices, meaning Putin’s revenue is lowered.

Meaning the Russians have a harder time buying the foreign parts required to build the weapons they use to kill and subjugate Ukrainians in Putin’s War. For climate activists, such as those who painted Stonehenge orange a couple of days ago while demanding we stop pumping fossil fuels, this point may not be obvious, but it’s something to bear in mind. Precise thinking, in short supply these days, is deeply important. How so here?

It’s all a web, and one action over here may have an unexpected reaction over there. Should we stop pumping fossil fuels? Not yet, sad to say. The lower the supply, the more everyone who refuses to go along with the other side of the equation – which is, stop using fossil fuels! – is willing to pay for them. And that is how Putin increases his war machine.

The proper side of the equation is the demand side, not the supply side. Reducing supply leads to unwanted consequences.

Last week, this week.

Foraging After Foregone News

• File under unsurprising: In California, Rep Schiff (D-CA) leads former MLB star Steve Garvey (R-CA) by 25 points, 62%-37%, according to Public Policy Institute of California (2.5/3 stars). This might be a bit much, as it’s a substantial step up from the previous poll in February by University of California Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies (also 2.5) that gave Schiff only a 14 point lead. But this is California, either lead is probably insurmountable. I shan’t mention this race again unless something interesting happens.
• So something interesting did happen with regards to the West Virginia race, and it’s not (yet) Senator Manchin (I-WV) re-entering the race after initially retiring. Instead, it’s me remembering that the 33 point lead of Governor Justice (R-WV) over former Mayor Elliott (D-WV) was measured by none other than Kaplan Strategies. They are the pollsters who gave Nevada Republican Senate nominee candidate Jeffrey Gunter, the sponsor of the particular poll, a 1 point lead, while other pollsters gave Sam Brown a 38 point lead; Brown won by 40+ points. Now, no sponsor is listed for the West Virginia poll, so maybe the results were not, ummmm, wildly inaccurate, but as Kaplan is now a suspect name, I think it’s safe to think that Justice’s real lead may be closer to 15 points, or even smaller. And that makes Manchin’s potential decision to step into this race even more interesting for Mr. Elliott.
• Steve Benen’s report on the hypocrisy of Senator Scott (R-FL) concerning IVF sparks some thoughts. Besides leaving an opening for Democratic challenger Rep Debbie Mucarsel-Powell in this year’s Florida Senator race, I have to wonder if we can see such, shall we call it flexible morality, applying to all Republican candidates, or only to those who’ve climbed the corporate ladder? I must say that, without formally surveying the Republican Senatorial candidates, there are an awful lot of corporate types, rather than the preferable experienced governmental types.
• Pre-primary, Minnesota’s Senator Klobuchar (D-MN) has 14 and 15 point leads over the two top candidates for the Republican nomination, Joe Fraser (R-MN) and Royce White (R-MN), according to SurveyUSA (2.8). I’m surprised it’s this close, as Klobuchar won in 2018 by 24 points and in 2012 by 35 points, and will pay more attention to this race. Another poll, by top pollster Emerson College (2.9), gives Klobuchar an 11 point lead over Royce White, 48%-37%, which must also be disappointing.
• Public Opinion Strategies (1.7), sponsored by the NRSC, has Senator Tester (D-MT) even with challenger Tim Sheehy (R-MT). A poll by a mediocre pollster, sponsored by a partisan organization, finding the candidates tied, suggests Tester may actually be ahead.
• Progressives may believe that Senator Cruz (R-TX) is vulnerable, but so far the pollsters in Texas don’t agree, as top pollster YouGov (2.9) gives Cruz an 11 point lead over challenger Rep Allred (D-TX), 45%-34%. Perhaps the Senator’s rebrand, reported by The Texas Tribune, is working; or it may be Rep Allred’s message is not getting out: 41% either expressed no opinion (17%) or a neutral view (24%) of him when asked whether they have a favorable or unfavorable impression of the Democratic congressman from Dallas …
• Public Policy Polling (1.4) is giving New Mexico’s Senator Heinrich (D-NM) a 7 point lead, 47%-40%, over challenger Nella Domenici (R-NM) in the first poll since the New Mexico primaries. Seeing as Heinrich won in 2018 by 24 points, this result may be a trifle alarming for Democrats, but Domenici is the daughter of former New Mexico Senator Pete Domenici (R-NM), and so, at least for older voters, it’s a familiar name. It may not be relevant, but Heinrich won in 2012 by 5+ points. In other news, Axios reports that Republicans view this as a sleeper race: With her name ID and personal wealth, national Republicans see the race as a sleeper that may also force Democrats to spend resources defending what is considered a safe seat.
• In contrast with YouGov’s (2.9) award of a 13 point lead to Rep Gallego (D-AZ) over Kari Lake (R-AZ) in the race for the open Senate seat in contested Arizona, Emerson College (also 2.9) gives Gallego a mere 5 point lead, 45%-41%.
• With primaries still to come, Michigan prospective nominees Rep Slotkin (D-MI) leads hard liner former Rep Mike Rogers (R-MI) by 5 points, 43%-39%, according to Emerson College (2.9). While folks who demand instant results from the Democrats may be discontented, I doubt they’ll vote for Rogers in sufficient numbers to beat Slotkin absent a black swan event.
• In the first poll in Nevada since their primaries, Emerson College (2.9) gives Senator Rosen (D-NV) a big 12 point lead over challenger Sam Brown (R-NV), 50%-38%. For locally confident Republicans that must have come as quite a shock.
• Emerson College (2.9) gives Pennsylvania Senator Casey (D-PA) a 6 point lead over David McCormick (R-PA?), 47%-41%. This is congruent with previous Pennsylvania polls and suggests Mr McCormick has a steep mountain to climb.
• And in Wisconsin, Emerson College (2.9) gives Senator Baldwin (D-WI) a 3 point lead over challenger Eric Hovde (R-WI?), 46%-44%. A jitter in the data stream or is Baldwin losing steam? Only time will tell, and it’s notoriously close-mouthed.
• Maryland’s popular former governor and Senate candidate Larry Hogan (R-MD) has been endorsed by Mr. Trump, and wants to take a shower to wash off the stench, apparently:

  “Well, I just said I didn’t … I didn’t seek it, I didn’t wanna have it, and I have no interest in it. It’s not something we’re gonna be promoting, that’s for sure,” Hogan, a common Trump critic, said in an interview with D.C.-area radio station WTOP when asked if he rejects the endorsement.

And now off to prepare for tomorrow’s flooding in Minnesota. Is caviar inappropriate?

Evapotranspirate:

Evapotranspiration is the sum of all processes by which water moves from the land surface to the atmosphere via evaporation and transpiration. [USGS]

Noted in “Embrace wooden buildings for the sake of your health and the planet’s,” Graham Lawton, NewScientist (8 June 2024, paywall):

A standard building has high “thermal inertia”, meaning it takes a lot of time and energy to warm up and cool down. But in a [cross-laminated timber, or CLT, ] building, the moment you start the heating, you start to feel the warmth in the atmosphere, says Petit. Cooling is less straightforward, but at Marcadet, this is aided by the plants and trees in the building’s rooftop garden. When it is hot, these evapotranspirate water from the soil and hence draw out heat from the rooms below.

Your Old Uncle laughing at a sex joke. That’ll teach you to tell your elders dirty jokes rather than engage in political discussions that result in mutual evisceration. At least he’s not squirting milk out his nose.

Godzilla Minus One (2023) is the series member – #37, according to Wikipedia – that finally takes the big step up. This is not a vague plot concerning a clutch of monsters fighting each other for obscure reasons. In this one, someone takes center stage and makes it stick. Pilot and survivor of World War II Kōichi Shikishima is burdened with a peculiarly Japanese version of survivor’s guilt. He’s looking for redemption in the remains of a devastated Tokyo, but he’s wracked with nightmares of a monster that he encountered during the war. And then, years later, the monster appears again, wrecking shipping on its way to Tokyo.

In response, Japanese citizens form a self-defense group and recruit Kōichi to man their lone plane, which will be used as a lure to bring the monster to a designated location where the scientists think they can destroy the monster. Their plane is a neglected, experimental plane that can only be brought into service by a man from Kōichi’s past, a man who knows his terrible secret.

And loathes him.

Well, the rest would be spoilers. But it should be clear to the experienced Godzilla fan that this is more of a plot than in any other entry in the canon; I can’t speak for other media.

But is it done well?

For the most part, yes, but it’s not perfect. Some of it may be simply my American eyes not interpreting the details properly in the context of Japanese society. For example, the rage of Kōichi at himself is expressed in such a way as to be reminiscent of the old movies, and I never much cared for that single dimensional approach, even if it is realistic.

Godzilla itself was also disturbingly mechanistic. Perhaps this is an allusion to other episodes that have suggested that his power source is actually a nuclear power plant. Or maybe the storytellers ran out of budget. But that is a little hard to believe, as other special effects are simply spectacular; indeed, the movie won an Oscar for special effects.

In terms of plot, the movie has some questionable points. For example, the emphasis on this being a privately run self-defense force was not believable. It seems highly unlikely that former Japanese Navy destroyers, even disarmed, would be given to such a group. Defense of the homeland is the business of government, not a bunch of World War II veterans. Another element, missing from all Godzilla movies, is Where is the Emperor? One would think a Divine, even a discredited Divine, would be called upon to lead the defense, but, as in all Godzilla movies, there’s no mention of the Emperor. And, finally, the wrap up is too soft, too unbelievable. It may have a symbolic point, but I couldn’t help but think there’s rarely a clean ending to any really good story, and this ending must have been created by Mr. Clean.

But there is one more element that is often not considered, and that’s the context. For the casual audience, this is a monster movie, but for the dedicated Godzilla fan, the context of actors in rubber suits and bad acting and dubious plots give this movie a bit of an extra ooomph, a transformation from a generally puzzling collection of films, or worse too-explicit (yes, yes, the point to this one is nuclear power is bad! I figured that out, thank you!), to a movie that explores the personal costs of a mere man becoming a hero, no matter how flawed in character or in story.

This is the best installment in the series, although I haven’t seen Godzilla x Kong (2024), and it’s almost worth a Recommended rating. If you haven’t seen it and have an inclination to see it, satisfy that inclination.