Category Archives: Uncategorized

I expected weeks of anticipation.

I guess no one was a MAGA-mole.

And the evidence and all was overwhelming. I didn’t watch or read obsessively about the trial, so I’m just goin’ with this outcome and what little I have read to form conclusions.

From CNN:

TRUMP GUILTY ON ALL 34 FELONY CHARGES

I know some pundits have opined that Bragg had overreached, or screwed up over this or that, but we’re in an age of weighing every utterance for maximum personal profit before issuance, rather than being honest in the interests of society. The constraints of the jury system, though, tends to obviate that.

And it takes little insight to predict the MAGA base – and Trump – will blame it on Biden and corruption. But it takes some doing to corrupt a jury and a grand jury, and if this is anything like the election litigation, it’ll just turn out to be Trump and his Trumpettes running their mouths. Again.

Off to mow the lawn.

“Just hang her up in the closet with the rest of the corpses.”

Detective Kitty O’Day (1944) started out defying our expectations, which were, to wit, a sexist police procedural, complete with cardboard characters. Instead, this story opens with secretary Kitty O’Day listening in on a phone call between her boss, middle-aged and tired financier Oliver Wentworth, and his wife, youthful and attractive Mrs. Wentworth, as he tells her he must skip their theatre date because of a sudden trip to Boston. Kitty is slyly assertive with everyone as her beau and Wentworth accountant, Johnny Jones, shows up with an immensely valuable packet of securities for Wentworth and a date proposal for Kitty.

Kitty must cancel as Wentworth requests Kitty come to his home to take some dictation, leading to some quite nice patter between Kitty and Jones. Sadly, this is the high point of the story. Between the cardboard cops who eventually are investigating the death of Wentworth, found hanging in his bedroom by our suddenly fainting violet Kitty, and later some more deaths, Kitty’s unbelievable choices in investigating Wentworth’s death, and the sudden appearance of the sexism late in the story, it just becomes a disappointing mess, a farce of a dated sort, not entertaining for modern audiences.

Or maybe I’m wrong. Maybe Gen-Zers would like the farce. Gen-Z readers, let me know via mail or comments if you like these farces.

But I didn’t like it, despite the promising opening. Too bad, the storytellers let themselves – and me – down.

This caught my eye:

Landgrave:

Landgrave (German: Landgraf, Dutch: landgraaf, Swedish: lantgreve, French: landgrave; Latin: comes magnus, comes patriae, comes provinciae, comes terrae, comes principalis, lantgravius) was a rank of nobility used in the Holy Roman Empire, and its former territories. The German titles of Landgraf, Markgraf (“margrave“), and Pfalzgraf (“count palatine“) are of roughly equal rank, subordinate to Herzog (“duke”), and superior to the rank of a Graf (“count”). [Wikipedia]

Noted in “Germany’s KILLER TOILET! Erfurt latrine disaster | Heinrich VI Holy Roman Emperor,” History Calling, YouTube, roughly 1 minute in:

The Libertarian Convention took place a day or two ago, and Mr. Trump came to seek its endorsement. What did he get?

I went through Trump's appearance at the Libertarian National Convention. If you're ever in the need for a pick me up this is one minute of a crowd booing Trump. I cut out as much of his voice as possible. You're welcome. pic.twitter.com/nV0GTF7IFq

— Decoding Fox News (@DecodingFoxNews) May 26, 2024

The Libertarian numbers are small enough that they aren’t a real force in politics, and they know this. That’s why they’re a member, informal as it might be, of the Republican coalition; the Reason magazine slogan of Free Markets, Free Minds slogan, and all it implies, makes it hard for them to interact with the Democrats.

But the Republicans are moving away from free markets, as evidenced by attempts to pick winners by Mr Trump during his Administration, and this will drive away libertarian true believers. In essence, we’re seeing the stripping away of fellow travellers and loose adherents from the intolerant core of Republican True Believers. The bulging eyed believers are engaged in competition to move up the social power ladder of the Republican Party, and one approach to this is to expel those who do not have the exact same tenets, often known as RINO^[1]-ism in this context. Purity is all.

Mr. Trump recognizes, in some dim way, that this is the destruction of his national influence; he, and his successors, are in imminent danger of being shunted aside into obscurity and impotence. Whether or not any of his allies also realize this is questionable, since many have only recently risen to prominence and have not the experience to properly scent the wind of public opinion. But this recognition explains Mr. Trump’s appeal for the nomination, and it’s a vivid depiction of his political fate.

What’s to come? I speculate that one to three conservative states will be informally chosen as havens for the MAGA base, adopted homes for purity of MAGA ideology. By overwhelming local opposition electorally, they’ll retain some presence in Congress, but intra-party competition will be much like it is today, metaphorically cut-throat. It will be unpleasant and drive away those who tire of the drama, even if they’re faithful.

Meanwhile, conservatives who cannot stand liberals and cannot stand Mr. Trump will get together and form a new party. I doubt they’ll take over the libertarians, and the other small conservative parties are probably not worth the effort. Call them the New Republicans, I suppose. They’ll make a go of advocating for pro-life positions initially, and, at some point, that’ll be quietly dropped as a matter of individual choice. It’ll be a long trip to the correct conclusion.

Groups betting on the Republicans may lose their bets, big time. Check out this article on the cryptocurrency industry, which appears to be betting more on Republicans than Democrats, although they get a mention as well. And notice how crypto is wriggling to get out from under the thumb of the SEC, substituting the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). Ya gotta wonder how the legal powers of the CFTC compare to the SEC’s. It all feels quite corrupt, especially for an industry that threatens both citizens’ wealth and the energy infrastructure of, well, the world.

And the Democrats? They’ll continue to puzzle over their lack of positive popularity in many locations, having to use negative campaigning such as The Republicans will take away your reproductive freedoms! rather than campaigning on their own proposed solutions to upcoming policy problems. The arrogance exhibited by both major parties will continue to repel the electorate, and proclamations that Americans are just racist, bigots, or whatever, and that explains Democratic failures will not help the Democrats improve.

Incidentally, the Libertarians selected Chase Oliver as their nominee. He demonstrated why the libertarians will continue to split from Republicans immediately:

Oliver, a 38-year-old gay man from Atlanta with socially tolerant and pro-immigration views, delivered a passionate response after Trump’s speech to the convention on Saturday. Now, he will get to spend the next six months competing directly against Trump and President Joe Biden, two men more than twice his age. After winning on Sunday, Oliver promised to keep pressing a message that neither major-party candidate is likely to offer.

Not exactly attractive attributes and positions to the MAGA base.

It took Oliver seven rounds of balloting, and the last ballot saw his remaining competitor be None of the above. He beat NOTA with only 60.6% of the ballots, which suggests some dissatisfaction in the Libertarian ranks, but that’s unsurprising. Libertarians like to think themselves as an intellectually rowdy bunch.

¹ RINO is Republican In Name Only. It’s the hunting cry of the power-hungry.

I’m so tired of “move on.” It’s dumb.

Let morph it to “advance.”

So on May 14th I listed four stocks I happen to watch as having jumped in price from 20% to 60% for the day. What has happened since?

• GameStop (GME), up 60% that day, has since fallen back to $18/share. Prior to the sudden ramp up, it’s price range was $10 to $15 a share, so while it’s still up 80% off it’s $10/share floor, it’s recent high of nearly $48/share suggests the wind is rapidly leaving its sales. Sails. Whatever.
• MicroCloud Hologram Inc. (HOLO) is showing a price of around $1.60/sh today, which is darn nearly its “normal” price prior to the storm of the meme hitting. Its recent high? Back in February it was at $66/sh. The May 14th jump of 60+% was a little upward jump in an otherwise long, long slide down.
• FuelCell Energy, Inc. (FCEL) was actually recovering from an abnormal low, an observation that can only be made in retrospect, moving from $.70/sh to $.89/share. It’s bounced around since May 14th, but today it’s at $.88/share. The real question, for the investor, is why it hasn’t return to its highs of $1.20/sh in March and April.
• MicroVision, Inc. (MVIS) has a story akin to FuelCell’s; only the numbers change. This also applies to the questions.

So GME and HOLO are probably typical meme stocks, to the extent that there are typicalities for such a new and unworthy category, and while they act like pump ‘n dump schemes, the pumpers are not the typical single entities of my youth, but rather groups of cooperating small investors who don’t understand the market like they should. FCEL and MVIS are  really traditional tech & manufacturing firms in which the questions are more along the lines of Who wants your tech? and Is your tech obsolete?

Notice those are what are known to the investing industry as fundamental questions: what are the companies doing? Technical investing is more of a psychological game, and applies to GME and HOLO, although it’s even odder than traditional technical investing.

Erick Erickson’s reaction to Mr Trump’s hysterical They’re out to get me is on the mark:

I am increasingly worried about the perpetual outrage that seems to be enveloping the right. The perfect example is this morning’s revelation of “use of force” language in the DOJ search warrant for Mar-a-Lago which has spawned countless people to claim this was an assassination attempt by Joe Biden against Donald Trump. As I wrote this morning, this is pro forma language included in every search warrant which the DOJ moronically forgot to remove.

This was dumb, but to claim it was an assassination attempt simply doesn’t hold water. The DOJ coordinated with the Secret Service to only enter the property when Trump was not present and planned to use the same language in the search warrant for Biden’s property before the President’s team invited them inside. But the outrage machine is spinning out of control on the right over it. Members of Congress and countless pundits are spilling vast amounts of ink to whip everyone into existential outrage.

To which I’d only like to add, If Trump were actually serious in his claims that Biden had sent the FBI to assassinate him, then why isn’t Trump in his airliner, traveling to the safe haven of Russia?

The problem is that the MAGA base has been trained not to step back and think. Just react.

It’s a cult.

Yes, it sure does.

The brilliant but shy orange azalea. Here’s an extra picture of a next door neighbor.

Where a fourth installment of Senate campaign news appears … When will he run out of fingers? readers ask. It’s perhaps best you don’t ask about my source of countin’ fingers.

Latest News

• Latest polls for the reelection run of Senator Cruz (R-TX) do not show a close race, but The Texas Tribune notes an interesting behavioral change:
  

  Heading into the heat of his reelection race against Dallas Congressman Colin Allred, U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz is testing the waters with a rebrand.

  Cruz, who has made a name for himself as an uncompromising conservative stalwart, is casting himself as a bipartisan lawmaker with a penchant for reaching across the aisle.

  “I actually have very good relationships with many of my colleagues across the aisle,” Cruz told The Texas Tribune, citing his work with Sens. Kirsten Gillibrand, Cory Booker and Amy Klobuchar. “I’ve worked with all three of them and all three are friends.”

  The interview was part of Cruz’s recent media blitz highlighting his work with Democrats, off the heels of his “Democrats for Cruz” announcement which aims to attract left-leaning voters this November. He debuted that messaging during a Laredo meeting with the U.S. Hispanic Business Council, where he stressed the value of bipartisanship legislating and enumerated several bills he’s written with Democratic senators. Meanwhile, Cruz is blasting Allred as not as bipartisan as he claims, citing the Democrat’s voting record with his party’s leadership.

  Do internal polls at the Cruz campaign show a closer race than anticipated? Or does Cruz scent a falling off of support for Republican antics? The Texas Tribune notes a pair of older polls as potential justification:

  The rhetorical shift comes as polls show another tight race for Cruz. A February poll by the University of Texas at Tyler showed the two candidates equally polling at 41%. Another poll conducted in March by Marist College found Cruz ahead by six percentage points.

  While UT-Tyler only has a 1.9 stars (out of 3) rating, Marist College has a 2.9 rating, both from FiveThirtyEight. Still, March was a long time ago; a bit of research yields a YouGov (2.9) poll giving Cruz a +13 advantage. I’m not sure The Texas Tribune can yet justify its assertion of a close race, even factoring in chronic Republican underperformance. Can Allred make up the difference? I noticed in the same YouGov poll the section Colin Allred Favorability Trend indicates improvement by the Representative.

• The Florida race between Senator Scott (R-FL) and Rep Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (D-FL) has produced some interesting polls. Here’s a summary:
  The margins easily categorize the pollsters into excellent ratings and mediocre ratings, and is instructive in the importance of pollster knowledge of past performance when surveying polls. While Mucarsel-Powell remains substantially behind, even assuming chronic Republican underperformance holds true for Senator Scott, eight points is potentially manageable over the next three or so months.
• Is Arizona getting away from the Republicans? In the race for the open Arizona Senate seat, YouGov (2.9) gives Democrat Ruben Gallego a 13 point lead over Republican Kari Lake, 49%-36%. If Lake, one of the more prominent proponents of election-denial and election machine corruption, loses precipitously, that may bring discredit down on the movement, as well as blot all over Mr. Trump, although they'll scream cheaters!, in accordance with movement tactics. But having Gallego as Senator for six years exposes Arizona voters to Democrats, and independents may notice an improvement in representation, although the late Senator McCain (R-AZ) was certainly not an extremist.Meanwhile, Florida Atlantic University (2.0) gives Gallego an 8 point lead, 48%-39%. Welcome to rounding.
• Florida Atlantic University (2.0) gives Nevada incumbent Senator Rosen (D-NV) an 11 point lead over likely Republican nominee Sam Brown, 48%-37%. Brown, however, is not unchallenged in the primary, including attacks by businessman Jeff Gunter (R-NV). Polling seems to show Brown's dominant position in the primary is unaffected, but primary polling is notoriously fickle. It's quite possible the Nevada Republican voters will fracture and alienate from each other, though, dooming the undetermined Republican nominee.
• In Minnesota, the Minnesota GOP has endorsed former NBA player Royce White (R-MN) for the nomination. Primaries are still to come, though, and the Republican primary field has six other candidates, according to Ballotpedia. Senator Klobuchar (D-MN) faces a single opponent, Derek Logan (D-MN), in her primary run.

The inimitable Randy Rainbow keeps riding the horse.

Perhaps an unfortunate metaphor, since that horse is pulling up lame.

BORG drinking:

The acronym BORG stands for “blackout rage gallon,” according to the National Capital Poison Center in Washington, DC. The term refers to a concoction often prepared in a gallon-size plastic jug that typically contains vodka or other distilled alcohol, water, a flavor enhancer and an electrolyte powder or drink. BORGs are often drunk at outside day parties, otherwise known as darties. [“What is BORG drinking, and why is it a dangerous trend? An expert explains,” Terry Ward, CNN/Health]

Back in the day this might have been called Thinning the herd. Add a scratchy, old guy’s voice if you so choose.

This one I can’t resist, even if the nominee may not quite fit the definition of the award:

[Defeated candidate for the Republican nomination for West Virginia’s 1st Congressional District Derrick] Evans’ fundraising emails, with subject lines like “I did time in Prison for Trump,” have highlighted his actions on Jan. 6 as a selling point for his candidacy. One ad even featured stock video of fake FBI agents busting through a window feet-first, when, in fact, video shows that Evans’ 2021 arrest was relatively mundane. [NBC News]

It’s rather like one-upmanship, isn’t it? I did time in Prison for Trump sounds like a classic line.

But I fear, in time, it’ll be the equivalent of a dunce cap.

In our third installment of this gripping drama … dammit, release your grip on me, sir!

Reader Commentary

A reader writes concerning a resource I’m using:

Meanwhile, the diagram makes no sense. Left/Liberal can certainly be considered approximately the opposite of Right/Conservative for these purposes, at least to a first order. But Libertarian and Populist are not even on the same axis, much less opposites. If one insists upon squishing them onto the same axis, they’re much more in the same direction than opposites. Both smack of individualism over society and community.

For the forgetful random reader, here’s an example diagram from On The Issues, former Governor Hogan’s (R-MD) as it happens:

Libertarians are generally four-square behind individual freedoms. The Reason magazine byline is Free Minds and Free Markets, and Reason is arguably the leading libertarian rag. Their ideology is fairly easy to describe: minimal governmental regulation. For some uber-libertarians, minimal means zero, and they explicitly claim the market will correct all, well, I suppose the applicable word would be inefficiencies. I recall, from a mimeo newsletter that I inadvertently received, called The Utilitarian, the authors argued an attempted justification for even crime being correctable through the market and prisons being unnecessary, a remarkable delusion concerning the rationality, or lack thereof, of mankind.

Populism, on the other hand, is less of an ideology. From Wikipedia:

Populism is a range of political stances that emphasize the idea of “the people” and often juxtapose this group with “the elite“. It is frequently associated with anti-establishment and anti-political sentiment. The term developed in the late 19th century and has been applied to various politicians, parties and movements since that time, often as a pejorative. Within political science and other social sciences, several different definitions of populism have been employed, with some scholars proposing that the term be rejected altogether.

It does continue …

A common framework for interpreting populism is known as the ideational approach: this defines populism as an ideology that presents “the people” as a morally good force and contrasts them against “the elite”, who are portrayed as corrupt and self-serving.

But I think populism is less an ideology than a meta-ideology, a set of rules to attain political success. That is, populists adapt to conditions on the ground. If the people want to march in a particular direction, the populist will scramble to get in front of the mob and be the leader. Ideologically, they can be flexible.

This is not necessarily a bad thing, although I think regarding populists with greater suspicion is definitely warranted; too often they are self-interested power-mongers and not selfless defenders of the public weal.

So far as the diagram goes, I see that axis as an indication of ideological rigidity. Whether it’s useful or not is another question; I suspect On The Issues will have substantial arguments for their presentation. But this is how I see it at the moment.

More Resource News

In the previous installment of this series I described the Siena College Poll as respected. Despite achieving the highest ranking in FiveThirtyEight’s evaluation of political pollsters, former Rep Joe Scarborough (R-FL), now an independent, and co-host of cable TV show Morning Joe, disagrees, along with Gary Sargent of WaPo, and others. They believe Siena and the Times are manipulating the data to stir up the political world and increase Times revenues, and they point at polling experts describing anomalies and poor methodology at Siena. Munchausen on Daily Kos presents a wrap up and summary.

I’m no polling expert. Maybe the best in the business is no longer the best in the business. Perhaps money has corrupted them.

Or maybe the cited pundits are suffering from denial of their confirmation bias. That is, liberal expectations that President Biden’s successful Administration should translate to public accolades are disappointed, and someone has to be blamed, so Siena takes the hit.

Look for yourself.

Oh, And Then There’s That Other News

• Speaking of Maryland Senate candidate and former Governor Larry Hogan (R-MD), he now claims he’s pro-choice. An acknowledgment of the Democrats’ biggest weapon in the election, will the Maryland Republican base tolerate it? Or is this a nudge-nudge wink-wink situation? Will Maryland independents believe him? Or will it all blow up in his face? Certainly, it suggests that Hogan’s private polling agrees that Democratic opponent Angela Alsobrooks’ ten point lead is real, and he needs to do something desperate. But is this the right thing?
• Sen. Chris Murphy (D-CT) has won nomination for his seat in the Senate for Connecticut, as expected, and is expected to win reelection easily. His acceptance speech was a bit apocalyptic, though.

Uxorious:

: excessively fond of or submissive to a wife [Merriam-Webster]

My goodness. Noted in “King Charles III’s blood-red portrait is a stylistic mess,” Sebastian Smee, WaPo:

Professor Richardson summarizes bad Congressional behavior – abrogations of the Constitution, eh wot – over the last few years:

The Constitution establishes that the executive branch manages foreign affairs, and until 2015 it was an established practice that politics stopped at the water’s edge, meaning that Congress quarreled with the administration at home but the two presented a united front in foreign affairs. That practice ended in March 2015, when 47 Republican senators, led by freshman Arkansas senator Tom Cotton, wrote a letter to Iran’s leaders warning that they would not honor any agreement Iran reached with the Obama administration over its development of nuclear weapons. …

Now extremists in the House are trying to run foreign policy on their own. The costs of that usurpation of power are clear in Niger, formerly a key U.S. ally in the counterterrorism effort in West Africa. The new prime minister of Niger, Ali Mahaman Lamine Zeine, whose party took power after a coup d’état threw out Niger’s democratically elected president, defended his country’s turn away from the U.S. and toward Russia in an interview with Rachel Chason of the Washington Post. Recalling the House’s six month delay in passing the national security supplemental bill, he said: “We have seen what the United States will do to defend its allies, because we have seen Ukraine and Israel.”

In direct contravention of the wishes of the American electorate.

But it seems to me that the Senate should pass a resolution reprimanding the House for wasting its time outside of its lane. Let Johnson know that he’s a bad boy. Sure, there’s no official status. But deliver it to the House ceremonially. Let the press know ahead of time. The People’s House needs to be reminded that they have no particular expertise in foreign affairs.

That’s what we hired Biden to do.

In our second installment …

• In Indiana, Trump-endorsed Rep Jim Banks (R-IN) won his uncontested primary to replace Senator Mike Braun (R-IN). Banks received in excess of 400,000 votes, according to Ballotpedia. On the Democratic side, Valerie McCray (D-IN) defeated Marc Carmichael (D-IN) for the nomination. Of note, the two Democrats totaled in excess of only 160,000 votes, so that suggests the independents will have to lean heavily Democratic for McCray to defeat Banks. Adding to the load is McCray’s lack of elective experience, so the mountain is indeed steep.
• In West Virginia, the May 14th primaries have yielded a Republican nominee of businessman, governor and Republican-turned-Democrat-turned-Republican Jim Justice (R-WV) and a Democratic nominee of former Wheeling, WV, Mayor Glenn Elliott (D-WV). Here’s Justice’s On The Issues summary:
  

  On The Issues: Jim Justice (R-WV).

  Mr Elliott currently lacks an entry in On The Issues. In terms of experience, for five years he worked as a legislative assistant to the late and legendary, or notorious if you prefer, Senator Robert Byrd (D-WV), and has since served two terms as Mayor of Wheeling, WV, his hometown, so he’s not an inexperienced naif. However, in the primaries Mr Justice, against competition, drew nearly 107,000 votes, while all of the Democratic entries together drew over 96,000 votes, so there’s a clear imbalance for Elliott to overcome. Add to that Justice’s classification as something like a moderate populist, making it easier for centrist independents to vote for him, and Elliott’s mountain may indeed be steep and tall.

  And yet, some question exists in my mind. There is no doubt that Mr. Justice is a chameleon to some extent, as his stance on abortion has migrated from SCOTUS has ruled on this to I stand with the unborn (from his On The Issues page). This changeability, not unknown for itinerant business CEOs for whom success, wealth, and/or power is more important than principle, yes, yes, much like presumptive Republican Presidential nominee Mr. Trump, may concern the West Virginia Republican Party’s voters. They may wonder as to his earnestness. They may even wonder if Mr. Justice would simply be another zombie member of Congress, doing little more than grandstanding, much like Gaetz and Greene, and skipping the hard work.

  Or would he even consider changing back to the Democratic Party if it suits a hidden agenda? Guessing at how voters might consider Mr. Justice’s positions and background is not a simple task; it may make more sense to suppose most voters will simply look for the familiar Justice name and vote for it. Or even simply “Republican”. But the implicit questions in his nomination remain enticing, if probably unimportant.

  There are no applicable polls, but if and when they appear I expect they’ll show Justice to be heavily favored.

• One of the oddest Senate candidates in West Virginia, energy company executive and former Republican Don Blankenship (D-WV), who was convicted of a misdemeanor in the mismanagement of a coal mine, resulting in the deaths of miners, and ran very odd campaign ads, came in last of the three candidates for the Democratic Senate nomination. However, he still drew 18.3% of the Democratic primary vote, which is not terribly awful, but it does raise questions about the Democrats in West Virginia. Or were the Republicans attempting to promote the weakest opponent by flooding the Democratic primary with votes for Blankenship? Frankly, I don’t really care, as I expect Justice to win.
• The focus remains on West Virginia because Mr. Blankenship is not the only oddity there. Independent Michael Sigmon has qualified for the general election for the West Virginia Senate seat … as well as for Maryland’s 7th Congressional District, Maryland’s open Senate seat, for which he did not qualify, and, of course, the Presidency. If you don’t believe it, feast your eyes.
• Speaking of Maryland and last night’s primary, in a shocker Prince George’s County Executive Angela Alsobrooks (D-MD) defeated self-funding businessman and member of Congress Rep David Trone (D-MD). In how much self-funding did Mr. Trone indulge? Nearly $62 million. While sometimes I wonder if money buys votes, it can also buy alienation, at least I suspect so, and I wonder if there are any polls measuring whether Trone’s millions spent on his campaign alienated voters, even those who may have voted for him in his successful House runs, of which there have been three.
  

  On The Issues: Larry Hogan (R-MD).

  On the Republican side, popular former Governor Larry Hogan (R-MD) might appear to have easily won the nomination. But, to my eye, it’s a troubling victory for him, as challenger Robin Ficker (R-MD) took 30% of the vote, and another 8 points were divided up among other contenders, suggesting nearly 40% of Republicans in Maryland are dissatisfied with Hogan. Given Hogan’s moderate stances (see right for the On The Issues summary) and stubborn anti-Trump position, this should be unsurprising, leaving him with the task of either convincing the MAGA-heads to vote for him, or the centrist independents. Insofar as Alsobrooks holds an early 10 point polling lead, it may be that Hogan must work harder. She also beat Hogan, in what may be an apples ‘n oranges comparison, in primary vote count, 240,000+ to 147,000+. That must be disturbing for Hogan as well.

• Nebraska held its primary elections yesterday. In the standard Senate primaries, incumbent Senator Fischer (R-NBNE) easily won, but 20% of primary voters wanted Arron Kowalski, instead, which can be read as the result of the Republican Party’s internal divisions by the uncharitably inclined. There was no Democratic primary, and thus no Democrat is present on the general election ballot, a blunder of a huge magnitude unless they’re backing an independent. Fischer will be faced by independent Dan Osborn and Legal Marijuana Now Party’s Kerry Eddy. Democrats should meditate on the Kansas Democrats’ example of taking back their State, piece by piece.
• Nebraska’s special election to replace Senator Sasse (R-NBNE), who left to take a job offer in the education sector, will feature appointed incumbent Senator Pete Ricketts (R-NBNE), who won less than 80% of the primary vote, and unopposed Preston Love Jr (D-NBNE).
• The respected Siena College Poll gives Arizona’s Rep Ruben Gallego (D-AZ) a 3 to 4 point lead over Kari Lake (R-AZ), according to FiveThirtyEight.
• The Siena College Poll has Nevada’s incumbent Senator Jacky Rosen (D-NV) even with likely Republican nominee Sam Brown (R-NV), according to FiveThirtyEight. Note, however, that Brown is not necessarily favored by all segments of the Republican Party.
• The Siena College Poll gives Pennsylvania’s incumbent Senator Casey (D-PA) a 2 to 5 point lead over challenger David McCormick (R-PA?), according to FiveThirtyEight.
• The Siena College Poll gives Wisconsin’s incumbent Senator Baldwin (D-WI) a 7 to 9 point lead over challenger Eric Hovde (R-WI?), according to FiveThirtyEight. This is consonant with an earlier Quinnipiac Poll result.

Steve Benen notes the latest House GOP push to impeach President Biden, this time in connection with the President’s threat to not deliver certain weapons to Israel if it invades Rafah in Gaza as part of its retaliation campaign against Hamas. The GOP is trying to portray it as the same as the incident with Ukraine for which then-President Trump was impeached, but failed to be convicted by the Senate.

As best as I can tell, Mills and Cotton believe there’s a parallel between Biden’s policy and Donald Trump’s 2019 extortion scheme toward Ukraine, in which the Republican withheld security aid in the hopes of getting Ukraine to help him cheat in his 2020 re-election campaign. It’s the scandal that led to Trump’s first impeachment.

This is not, however, a serious argument, in large part because there’s nothing illegal about Biden’s policy, and he’s not trying to leverage security aid for campaign help.

What’s more, a White House official told The Hill that the GOP’s claims are “ridiculous,” adding, “Senior administration officials had already made multiple public statements about Rafah similar to the President’s, including that we are also ensuring Israel gets every dollar appropriated in the supplemental. Trump failed to spend dollars appropriated by Congress that he was legally required to spend. This is about a purchase made by a foreign government and our decision whether to deliver that purchase right now, which could enable an operation we’ve publicly and privately objected to.”

All of which reminds me of a birthday party I attended a couple of years ago. Among the strangers I met was an assistant or vice election judge. Plainly a liberal, she was more than a little bewildered by her observation that the Republican lawyers being sent by the Minnesota GOP to observe election procedures were just getting dumber as the years passed. You expect improvement over time, no? But she wasn’t observing that.

I think that this same phenomenon is happening in Congress with the GOP. I know, I know, no surprise. Don’t they understand that, if the situations were parallel, that they’ve just admitted Mr Trump was indeed guilty of a high crime and should have indeed been convicted?

Somehow, I doubt it.

Just among the stocks I sort of keep track of, but do not hold any of, in today’s performance:

• MicroCloud Hologram is +61.5%.
• GameStop is +60.1%.
• FuelCell is +23.95%.
• MicroVision is +24.4%

That’s a lot of stocks up over 20%, in my small list of watch stocks, and with two capital letters in their single word names. Kidding on that last one. Maybe not.

The point is that two at least, and maybe all of them, are members of a new class of stocks: meme stocks. When I was a young investor, I might have called them the over the wall stocks, as scouring for ideas for investment required more creativity, as there was no Web to use for research.

I don’t think any of those above are a good idea, as the ripples in the web of prices of meme stocks are inevitably open to manipulation and positive feedback loops. The Web has introduced computers into the investing world’s retail segment, and suddenly things are going to move faster. Try not to get caught in the traffic with anything beyond pocket change.

But if you’re a young investor, keep an eye on them. Learn how the dark side of the investing world operates. And, who knows, maybe not all of these are the result of dark forces.

Scofflaw:

Sorry, but this has been bouncing around in my skull for a while:

Another Major Issue

Since my first post in this series, another major issue, referenced but unexplored in the previous post, has reared its head: the Israeli response to the October 7th incursion, mass kidnapping, mass rape, and mass murder of Israelis, mostly civilians and Israeli guests, by terrorist group and controller of the Gaza government Hamas.

The Israeli response has been to ravage the cities of Gaza, killing 30,000 people as they pursue Hamas members, who use the Palestinians of Gaza as a human shield.

President Biden is caught in a bind on this issue. If he supports Israel, then members of the Democratic Party who’ve committed to the Palestinian cause may stay home on election day, as demonstrated on Primary Day in Michigan. If he doesn’t support Israel, the Democratic moderate base will wonder as to his loyalty to Israel. He is attempting to thread the needle by promising to withhold some weapons if Israel moves against Rafah, a Gazan city being used as a refuge by Gazan civilians.

If you’re like me, an examination of the history and facts on the ground convince me that we hired Biden to manage these impossible situations, keeping uppermost in mind the best interests of the United States. I must ask if the American far-left understands that being a citizen of the United States requires such a posture. It’s not optional. But I don’t want to be President, as the entire situation would undoubtedly leave King Solomon in tears.

If you want more thoughts on this, here’s Andrew Sullivan’s heartbroken take on the matter: How To Re-Elect Donald Trump. A paywall may interfere, and sometimes Sullivan’s emotions contaminate his thinking, but he remains one of the best observers of American politics. And, just for fun, allegedly serious candidate RFK, Jr. (HE’S AN ANTI-VAXXER, FOR GOD’S SAKE) reportedly lost part of his brain to a parasitic worm years ago. At least Biden comes off as a level headed leader, unlike Trump or Kennedy.

Funding

Candidates can win elections without funding – but it’s rare. It’s worth noting this WaPo article from April 1 that indicates Republican Party funding sources are drying up. Most of the Trumpian candidates lack his apparent charisma, coming off as lunatics, although my view is this observation applies to Mr Trump as well.

The Republican Party may founder on the rocks of financial exhaustion as Mr. Trump sucks up all available funds for his legal bills – or his religious treasury.

And The Latest News

• In Maryland, where popular former governor and NeverTrumper Larry Hogan (R-MD) was thought to hold a lead in an otherwise Democratic state in the race for an open Senate seat, he now appears to be in trouble, even though primaries are still in the future. Respected pollster Emerson College has this summary:
  

  Looking at the November general election, both [Democratic candidates] Alsobrooks and Trone lead Hogan in hypothetical matchups: Alsobrooks leads 48% to 38%, with 14% undecided, and Trone leads 49% to 38%, with 14% undecided.

  Since February, Hogan’s support has decreased from 42% against Trone, and 44% against Alsobrooks, while the Democratic candidates have increased support in the general election, Trone from 42% to 49%, and Alsobrooks from 37% to 48%.

• In Nevada, Emerson College gives incumbent Jacky Rosen (D-NV) a good sized lead of … 45% to 37%, with 18% undecided. If the overperformance characteristic holds true for Rosen then Brown has little chance, and this in a state where GOP officials hoped to flip a seat. But there’s months ahead for things to go awry.
• In Wisconsin, the Quinnipiac Poll gives an early and substantial lead to incumbent Senator Tammy Baldwin, 54-42, in another state where Republicans had some hopes.

This space reserved for witty remarks.

Wicked Little Letters (2023) is a psychological examination of the female human psyche, trapped in a patriarchal system that is populated by those so jealous of position and power that they more resemble mobile and erratic volcanoes rather than rational humans. The powerless, then, desiring nothing more than some light recognition, are forced to engage in behaviors of exceptionally dubious social utility in order to engage the desired attention, which in this case consists of writing profane, insulting letters to various residents of the British town of Littlehampton, and then standing back and enjoying the uproar.

Driving the point home is the lone member of the local police who happens to be female, Police Constable Moss. Disregarded and dismissed by Chief Constable Spedding as worthless, Moss decides to return the sentiment and pursues the case on her own initiative, provoking another volcano in the person of said leader of the police. Eventually, Moss enlists, informally, a gang of women to entrap the perpetrator, while also extinguishing both volcanoes.

Perhaps unexpectedly, in the meantime another woman has been arrested, imprisoned, and is now on trial. Her behavior is certainly not above reproach, but it’s worth noting her lack of repression; the imputed irrationality is unbelievable, and must be disregarded by all the men sitting in judgment, officially or not.

Will justice be done? What is justice, after all? All this and more in this tale that purports to be based on a real historical incident.

I don’t read all, or even half, of Erick Erickson, nor listen to him at all. But yesterday’s article “Why We Can’t Have Nice Things” includes this passage:

The legislation uses an antisemitism standard developed by the International Holocaust Remembrance Alliance that is globally accepted — including already in use by the United States government1. Kirk, Carlson, Marjorie Taylor Greene, and others willfully misrepresented an example in the IHRA standard. The example read, “Using the symbols and images associated with classic antisemitism (e.g., claims of Jews killing Jesus or blood libel) to characterize Israel or Israelis.”

That last part is italicized because the grifters went out of their way to downplay it. Saying the Jews killed Jesus is not antisemitism.2 Saying the Jews killed Jesus, therefore Israel or Israelis are bad, is antisemitism. Using the crucifixion to hate the modern nation-state of Israel and its citizens is absolutely antisemitism. That is the point of the example.

TPUSA, which keeps a list of antisemites on its roster, if not its payroll, is being too cute by half on this stuff. The organization has set up a website distancing itself from Candace Owens’ growing antisemitism. If you search the internet for TPUSA’s views on Israel and Owens, your search engine will helpfully direct you to a special website putting distance between Owens and TPUSA. If you aren’t interested, you’ll get directed to the main TPUSA website where their relationship with Owens is highlighted.

It. Is. All. A Grift.

Yes, he’s not talking about Democrats. He’s talking about fellow conservatives and whoever else is trying to pass themselves off as traditionalists, while extracting as much money as possible from the conservative base.

Perhaps Mr. Erickson would be outraged were he to read that, but, then again, maybe not.

So, yes, the Republicans are ripping themselves into pieces, separating along an ideological line at the urging of the Mosquitoes of the Right, predatory creatures who live to extract the base’s wealth, and, incidentally or not, injecting more and more ideological poison into their blood stream: anti-vax, prosperity theology, pick your poison.

Not that the Democrats are doing that much better. Between the Hamas kidnapping, rape, and murder of Israelis on 7 October 2023 and its consequent Israeli defensive or retaliative strike, the economic concerns of a coddled set of voters who find a trifling bit of inflation outrageous, and the external concern of the anti-vax Presidential candidacy of RFK, Jr., the Democrats may have some legitimate concerns of their own.

But, at least as an independent voter, I don’t generally see the grifting on the left that I see on the right.

Still, we may, over the next decade, see a remodeling of the American political landscape as the conservative base realizes that a significant portion of their leadership are grifters and begin drifting back to more traditional and reliable news sources than Fox News, and then the left as that side’s leadership dies of decrepitude, both ideological and physical.

And then the American youth will get to come to grips with problems which may be unresolvable, at least by Americans. Such as the conflict in the Middle East, ‘cuz I have to tell you that, despite the wailing of those protesters on campus, it’s not a simple problem to solve.