Author Archives: Hue White

In The Dash

Rather infamous Kaplan Strategies (2.0) is measuring our candidates for President nationally and finds … oh, you don’t know why they’re infamous? As I noted here, Kaplan’s reliability is dubious:

[Kaplan is] the pollsters who gave Nevada Republican Senate nominee candidate Jeffrey Gunter, the sponsor of the particular poll, a 1 point lead [in the primary], while other pollsters gave Sam Brown a 38 point lead; Brown won by 40+ points.

So assessing the reliability of this poll is problematic, but also interesting. Why? Here’s RedState.com’s report on the poll, and they get kudos on putting the bad news right up front.

President Donald J. Trump trailed his Democratic opponent, Vice President Kamala Harris, 45 percent to 52 percent with Likely Voters, and then among Registered Voters, Trump trailed Harris with 46 percent to her 50 percent, according to the Kaplan Strategies poll put in the field Aug. 23 through Aug. 24.

As I prefer the likely voter scenario over the registered voter scenario, and that’s what I report in my Senate Campaign Updates, I’ll go with the seven point lead among likely voters.

Surveying FiveThirtyEight’s list of recent Presidential polls, Kaplan Strategies has no sponsor listed, so it’s difficult to say if this poll should be considered skewed, at least for folks like you and me. That same list shows this poll as giving Harris the biggest lead as of this writing, so perhaps it’s not skewed.

That said, the balance of Redstate’s report is rather interesting in that it attempts to obscure the import of Harris’ lead. This bit is particularly funny in view of the fact that a Vice President having to replace their President late in the race might be considered to be at a disadvantage against a former President, and yet …

“This is a very close race, and the Trump campaign is absorbing the full-on assault of Harris campaign—and yet, Harris, with everything going in her favor, is still not pulling away from Trump,” said Doug Kaplan, whose Florida-based political consulting firm conducted the poll, full details of which may be viewed below.

… Harris, with everything in her favor … really? Did he really think he could slip that phrase of indictment in there? Is he saying Mr. Trump is sub-standard, that he’s inferior?

I suspect that, by November 1st, we’re going to see polls giving Harris larger advantages, of 15 points, of 20 points. And if Mr Trump tries to leave the contest, Mr Vance will fare no better.

In short, we’re seeing what happens when a Party is dominated by fourth-raters whose main skill is shrieking RINO!, the base being constituted of folks who don’t consider competency or compromise or deep thinking to be legitimate political skills, and ruled by the Gingrichian diktats concerning inter-Party warfare. This has been a major theme of this blog, and I and long-term readers are now observing a nadir of the Republican Party, shepherded by members of all the major institutions of our government, as in the names Trump, Thomas, Alito, McConnell, Scott (pick your Senator Scott, neither has distinguished themselves in the positive aspect), Graham, McCarthy, Gaetz, Greene, Gosar, and the beat goes on.

Oh, And This …

The DJT stock chart as of about 2:30 pm today:

The last time I published a post on DJT, it’s price was $33/share, and, from this chart, we can see the price going up and down over the last six month. Notice that the merger that took DJT public was in early April, and if Trump decides to dump his stock in order to make money, DJT will plunge.

I suspect DJT will be heading downhill until November, at which point it may disappear completely. In this, it’ll act as a proxy for the popularity of Mr Trump, and as Mr Trump continues to exhibit the symptoms of narcissism and dementia, so the stock’s behavior will reflect. The one counter to this will be the attempts of outside parties to manipulate the price. Whether it works or not remains to be seen.

From NewScientist (3 August 2024):

The Komodo dragon, one of the planet’s fiercest reptiles, reinforces its teeth with an iron cap – and researchers think some dinosaurs may have had this adaptation too. …

Compared with human teeth, Komodo dragon enamel is incredibly thin, says [Aaron LeBlanc of King’s College London]. Along the serrations, the enamel is only 20 micrometres thick – about a quarter of the thickness of a human hair. The enamel in human teeth is about 100 times thicker.

The iron layer in Komodo dragon teeth is coated on top of this extremely thin layer of enamel. The team think it either gives the enamel extra strength to protect serrations while eating prey or acts as a barrier against acidic digestive juices.

One of the most dangerous critters in the world, and it turns out they’re seriously goth.

Or at least so I’d like to think.

Spiel:

a speech, especially one that is long and spoken quickly and is intended to persuade the person listening about something:

• a sales spiel
• They gave us a long spiel about why we needed to install double glazing in our house. [Cambridge Dictionary]

A bit old-fashioned, I suspect, but useful for period fiction or a desire to distinguish oneself with one’s patter, which is itself listed as a synonym.. I wonder how many campaign speeches qualify, as the spoken quickly constraint surprised me a bit. Noted in “Harris embraces patriotism and decency. Will voters?” Jennifer Rubin, WaPo:

This was a presidential-level address, not merely another campaign spiel. [Kamala Harris’] delivery, timing and demeanor conveyed calm authority. She is betting that patriotism, decency and kindness still win in Americans’ hearts. She stuck the landing this week; now, it’s up to the country to prove her right.

Last time was this, but what is that?

Over The Traffic Hump Labeled ‘DNC’, What’s Next?

• Florida’s primaries yielded the final contestants in the State’s Senate race, Senator Rick Scott (R-FL) and former Rep Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, along with four candidates with little chance. The weed in the garden if you’re a Democrat? Senator Scott, while crushing two primary opponents, garnered more ballots in his primary than did all the Democratic candidates aggregated. This suggests Mucarsel-Powell has to persuade all of the Democratic voters, of which she won only 68.6% of their ballots, and a large majority of the independent voters, to vote for her in order to win.Thing is, this is not impossible. The blowback of the Dobbs decision, communicated properly, may suffice to defeat a Senator with a lot of behavioral problems. While the numbers are disconcerting on their own, the Democrats still have an outside chance in the big State of Florida.
• After its Tuesday primary, Wyoming will see a Senatorial contest between Senator John Barrasso (R-WY) , who surprisingly only received 68.1% of the Republican primary votes, and challenger Scott Morrow (D-WY), who lost a few votes to write-in candidates, and thus won his primary with only 98+% of the Democratic ballots. That said, Barrasso nearly quadrupled Morrow’s ballot count, and put the two together and they barely top 5,000 votes. When they say it’s a small State, they mean it.And it’s full of tall mountains, and that’s what Morrow faces in this race.
• But Texas is not full of tall mountains, and the big one Rep Allred (D-TX) faced a few months ago appears to now be more of a hill, as highly respected pollster YouGov (2.9) has Rep Allred only two points behind Senator Cruz (R-TX), 47%-45%.If Rep Allred pulls this off, it’ll be a real shock to the entire Texas Republican Party, an organization that desperately needs electric shock therapy in the wake of the failed impeachment of Texas AG Ken Paxton. And it’s too bad my Mom’s not still around, as Allred was her maiden name. She’d be tickled.
• In Maine, University of New Hampshire Survey Center (2.6) is giving Senator Angus King (I-ME) a lead over Republican challenger Demi Kouzounas (R-ME) and Democratic challenger David Costello (D-ME), 43%-33%-9%, respectively. Senator King is an independent who apparently cannot stomach the Republicans in the Senate, and therefore caucuses with the Democrats, providing a critical vote to the Democrats. Unless numbers change in a challenger’s favor, I shan’t mention Maine again.
• A Dream, Extinguished: A few months ago, Axios reported on Republican dreams when it comes to New Mexico’s race between Senator Heinrich (D-NM) and challenger Nella Domenici (R-NM):
  

  With [Domenici’s] name ID and personal wealth, national Republicans see the race as a sleeper that may also force Democrats to spend resources defending what is considered a safe seat.

  Emerson College (2.9) is now measuring Senator Heinrich’s margin as being twelve points, 49%-37%, with a credibility interval of ±3.1 points, and I think the Republican dream is extinguished, absent a black swan event. Unless shocking news comes along, I shall omit New Mexico polling news in the future.

• I didn’t expect to ever again mention the newest member of the Senate, New Jersey’s George Helmy (D-NJ), who was appointed by Governor Murphy (D-NJ) to the seat of the resigning-in-disgrace former Senator Bob Menendez (I-NJ), but this goes into the Political Version of Trivial Pursuit:
  

  George Helmy will succeed Menendez until the November election results for the Senate seat are certified late in the month, the governor said. At that point, Murphy said Helmy will resign and he’ll name the winner of the election to the seat. [AP]

  The Trivial Pursuit question might be Who is the most ephemeral member of the US Senate? (Does Trivial Pursuit function on questions? I haven’t played in thirty years.)  Alternative: Which US Senator kept his seat warmest? Sure does sound like a Thank You! to me, as previously noted, and I’m fairly sure I’ve never seen this before.

• In Vermont, I, of course, am wrong, as University of New Hampshire Survey Center (2.6) has produced poll results that I claimed no one would bother pursuing. In their measurement, Senator Sanders (I-VT) leads Gerald Malloy (R-VT), by a large number, 66%-25%. Vermont will be getting no more love from me. Or, to borrow an obscure poetic form:
  

  Sanders tops
  a
  hapless victim

• Pitiless Rumors Department: Former Nebraska Senator Ben Sasse (R-NE), who resigned to take the job of President of the University of Florida last year, and since resigned from that job, purportedly due to a family illness, is accused of, well, poor financial judgment by fellow Republican Governor Ron DeSantis (R-FL):
  

  Former University of Florida President Ben Sasse on Friday disputed allegations of “inappropriate spending” following reports that spending by the president’s office more than tripled after he took over as leader of the state’s flagship university. [6 South Florida]

  Disputations and more salacious details at the link. It all sounds irrelevant, yet might it have an impact on Nebraska voters and the two races on which they’ll be voting? That’s a hard question to answer. But in the wake of the shocking news that Dan Osborn (I-NE) is only two points behind Senator Fischer (R-NE) in a very respectable pollster’s results, which is almost certainly within the margin of error, every voter who flips from Republican to, let us say, disgusted with all the Republican corruption! is a valuable voter for Osborn. Mr Osborn may find himself obligated to send a Thank You! note to Governor DeSantis.

  

  On The Issues: Senator Pete Ricketts (R-NE).

  And, in the other race of appointed Senator Ricketts (R-NE) and challenger Preston Love Jr. (D-NE) for former Senator Sasse’s seat? Well, what of Mr Love? I have yet to see a poll on this race. But looking at Senator Ricketts’ On The Issues summary to the right, it’s clear that he’s not going to be namby-pamby on the abortion issue, and that should spell political trouble for the Senator and former governor. (Yes, there’s the red dot marking his position, waaaaay to the right – he must be a contender for Most Conservative Senator!).

  Time for a poll!

Where Are We At? Let Me Consult The Map The Baby Upchucked On

Despite the negative predictions of right wing pundits and politicians, the pro-choice wave is surging in, just as it did during nearly all the special elections since Dobbs was announced. Women are outraged at the decision, and in those States where anti-abortion politicians control the issue, laws have been passed outlawing the medical procedure. I use the word control because some States, despite being conservative, have clauses in their Constitutions guaranteeing access to abortion.

These laws are the production of inept politicians. I use the word politician with precision; these laws may be competently written, making them technically good lawmakers. But politicians, real politicians in the American tradition, know that persuasion generally precedes effective laws, and a law passed through subterfuge, or invalidated through dubious reasoning, as with Dobbs, or simply rammed through by a minority that happens to be in power, is despised and can expand and harden opposition. Politicians who don’t understand the proper contribution of the model of a liberal democracy to American politics, whether it’s in the context of abortion or the management of the transgender issue, is a continuing failure regardless of the success or failure of the issue at hand, and, for the benefit of the State or the Country, should be dumped out on their ass.

I don’t care how much they scream But God Said ! or But Who Will Think Of The Children ?! That’s not how we do things here in the States, and if you don’t like it you, can lump it.

And we’re going to see this, and continue to see this, when it comes to Dobbs. The real question is the magnitude of the reaction. Here are the races that I think have become interesting:

• John Barrasso (R-WY) vs. Scott Morrow. There are no polls, so I’m moving it to the hot races list.
• Kevin Cramer (R-ND) vs Katrina Christiansen (D-ND), for which there are no credible polls, but at least a few people are beginning to suggest Cramer is vulnerable. I don’t think so, but I keep an open mind when it comes to me being wrong.
• Ted Cruz (R-TX) vs Colin Allred (D-TX) is definitely a hot race, as earlier news in this post makes clear.
• Deb Fischer (R-NE) vs Dan Osborn (I-NE) is another hot race, as a previous post indicated Osborn is pushing Fischer hard.
• Josh Hawley (R-MO) vs Lance Kunce (D-MO) may also be hotter than I predicted.
• If Senator Fischer (R-NE) is in trouble, her colleague Pete Ricketts (also R-NE) may also be in trouble. Come on, pollsters, prove me right.
• Rick Scott (R-FL) is barely holding off Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, so this is hot.
• Jim Justice (R-WV)’s position with regard to challenger Glenn Elliott is not known at the moment, so it’s hot until it’s not. It’s probably not.

I left Senators Wicker (R-MS) and Blackburn (R-TN) off as they seem relatively safe, though lacking relevant polling.

Until next time, stay safe.

[Published Aug 26]

Today’s nominee for Trump devotee is a specialist, it appears, in the fine Republican art of projection. The honored nominee’s name is Rob Schmitt, and he’s a host for cable news show and partisan Republican wannabe institution, Newsmax. This is provided by Media Matters For America:

… I think that when you put a poll out there that makes it look like Kamala is doing well, it creates the idea in a lot of people’s minds that aren’t intelligent enough to think for themselves that, oh, she must be better than I think she is. Or is she — obviously, people obviously like her, so I should like her too. I mean, this kind of polling, in my opinion, is dangerous and it’s almost like election meddling in a way to put a poll out there like that and have it this skewed.

… aren’t intelligent enough to think for themselves … Goodness. In the 2022 Senate elections, looking back, it was quite clear that there were a number of “pollsters” who thought they could influence the election by nudging voters to the right. For example, read this bit about Senator Hassan (D-NH) vs Don Bolduc (R-NH) in 2022:

In New Hampshire, some conservative pollsters gave challenger Don Bolduc (R) a small lead over Senator Hassan (D), while others called it a dead heat. Then pollster Lowell Center gave Hassan a ten point lead, pointedly out of step with everyone else. Hassan’s final margin of victory? 10 points.

I failed to find similar profiles for liberal pollsters, so, when I see frenzied claims like this from Schmitt, I see a ludicrous loyalty to Mr Trump, from a news station which should, but fails to, at least try to present itself as neutral, and not engage in the same insulting behaviors as does Mr. Trump.

This is way out of bounds for any reasonable person. Which makes him a Landgrebe, someone frantically flailing after social position that’s been lost because their idol has been shown to have feet of clay. All they know to do is what they did yesterday; I suppose the claim that this was inevitable is quite reasonable.

In The Dash

Last night I heard snippets of various DNC speeches as my Arts Editor caught up on the news, and a common theme is that this is going to be a close Presidential race. But I have my doubts. Between dementia and Dobbs, Federal debt and a pack of fourth-raters (Representatives Comer, Jordan, Gaetz, Greene, Boebert are just some of the names that come to mind), I suspect Harris will win all the States Biden won, with Georgia being the biggest question mark, and she’ll pick up North Carolina, which is afflicted with a nutty Republican candidate for Governor, current Lt Governor Robinson, and one more State. But which?

Possibly huge Ohio, which may be so repulsed by Senator Vance’s poor judgment, along with Trump’s narcissism, that they may go Democratic. Ah, but for a poll … oh, here comes one now! Fairleigh Dickinson University (2.6/3 on the FiveThirtyEight pollster rating scale) is giving Harris a lead nationally:

Voters nationally give Vice President and Democratic nominee Kamala Harris an edge over former President Donald Trump in November’s election by a seven-point margin (50 to 43), but race and gender remains central to the vote. When voters are made to think about the race or gender of the candidates, Harris’ lead grows substantially; when they’re not, support is essentially tied. Harris is also helped by strong support among the slightly less than half of men who reject traditionally masculine identities. Trump’s strongest support is among men who hold traditionally masculine identities, while women and other men strongly favor Harris.

Caveats galore, but I think it’s a sign of a future where Trump tries desperately to slime Harris into a coma, and she and Walz pick and pick at him while letting him hang himself with the voters. A seven point lead is bloody huge, you know, when Harris’ predecessor, President Biden, was chronically trailing.

Keep in mind, of course, that the popular vote does not categorically determine the Electoral College vote, which is a scandal in the minds of many Americans. And then there’s the perplexing Trumpian claim that he doesn’t need any more votes, he has plenty of votes. Maybe votes is a synonym for money? Maybe he’ll employ violence to gain a victory? Using fourth-raters prone to delusion isn’t a promising fighting force, so it seems unlikely. There is some concern about the electoral positions being occupied by MAGA and allies, but a reminder to them that abusing their positions could end poorly should help matters.

Or does Trump think a depleted Russian Army will come pouring over Niagara Falls? OK, I said that purely for the humor. Mostly.

Look for more pollsters to echo these results, even amplifying them much to Trump’s frustration.

Oh, And This …

From WaPo:

Seen at the Minnesota State Fair, 2024 edition:

My Arts Editor suggested the post title should be Chickens In Prison.

Steve Benen predicts the future:

Melissopalynology:

Melissopalynology is the study of pollen in honey. The term comes from the Greek words for “bee” and “honey” along with the words for “study of dust,” which now refers to “pollen.” Today, it is recognized worldwide as being the least expensive and quickest way to determine the floral contents and geographical origin of honey. However, the effectiveness of the technique depends on the skills of the pollen analysis (palynologist), the method of extracting the pollen from honey samples, and the skill of the analyst in interpreting the results. Today honey has become an important commercial business and provides sweetness used in thousands of products. [Bee Culture]

Noted in “How clues in honey can help fight our biggest biodiversity challenges,” Graham Lawton, NewScientist (10 August 2024, paywall):

The idea that honey contains biological fingerprints of its origins isn’t new. In 1895, a German chemist by the name of Pfister (his forename is lost in the mists of time) examined samples of honey under a microscope and noted that the pollen grains within were diagnostic of where the honey was made. Thus began the science of melissopalynology, the visual analysis of pollen grains in honey to determine its geographical origin.

Maybe they’re on migration.

Flippity flappity floop.

Today Robert F. Kennedy, Jr (RFK Jr) announced he is dropping out of the Presidential race.

RFK Jr. backs Trump: Robert F. Kennedy Jr. joined former President Donald Trump at a rally in Arizona on Friday, hours after he suspended his independent presidential campaign and endorsed Trump. Kennedy said he will withdraw from the ballot in 10 battleground states. [CNN/Politics]

I suspect, since he tried to arrange a discussion with Democratic nominee Harris concerning a possible Cabinet job, that may have been the deal he made with Trump.

RFK Jr no doubt realized that his dream of becoming President, never a strong possibility, was dashed when Biden refused the Democratic Presidential nomination and endorsed Vice President Harris for the nomination. His delay in dropping his run for President may have been in the thin hopes that Harris would be denied the nomination. While I think it was never in doubt that she’d win and accept the nomination, I must say this campaign season has been wacky enough that RFK Jr was actually justified in waiting it out.

Then again, he may simply have been waiting for Harris to become the official nominee so that he could make a bid for a job in her Cabinet.

All that said, what comes next? Will RFK Jr voters transfer to Trump? While it may seem like a sensible proposition, I don’t think so. The problem here is that many of his voters were what’s being called double-haters, voters who didn’t believe Mr Trump nor President Biden were up to the job, and RFK Jr was their backup plan. From the above link, it seems that some election watchers considered the double-haters a substantial portion of the electorate:

This bloc of “double haters” has ballooned in size thanks to the surge in Biden’s unpopularity since 2020, with polls suggesting they now represent 16% to 20% of the electorate. [Axios]

But now Kamala Harris is the Democratic nominee, and suddenly the double haters are single-haters. Can RFK Jr persuade them to vote for Trump against their better judgment?

I don’t see it happening. RFK Jr has weak presence, and, from my very limited exposure to him, he seems spastic and confused. While his anti-vaccination position may appeal to a small number of voters, influencing even their vote to go with Trump seems unlikely. The magic of the Kennedy name, especially when his own relatives have advised against voting for him, is weakening badly.

Finally, and, yes, it’s not official, but if he has traded his endorsement for a Cabinet position, it really makes him look like a power-monger, an over-eager carrier of the Kennedy torch, and someone with very poor judgment.

I suspect he’s delivered a large number of voters to Harris, not Trump. Voters are not commodities, after all, but thinking beings.

Bring on the polls.

My Arts Editor exclaimed 10 out of 10! at its conclusion.

Backyard:

And, in North Carolina:

Leitmotif:

a phrase or other feature that is repeated often in a work of art, literature, or music and that tells you something important about it:

• Death and renewal are leitmotivs running through the whole novel. [Cambridge Dictionary]

Noted in “Sam Bankman-Fried, a personal verdict,” Michael Lewis, WaPo:

“In other words,” said the judge, “a man willing to flip a coin as to the continued existence of life and civilization on Earth, if the chances were imperceptibly greater that it would come out without that catastrophic outcome, that’s really a leitmotif in my judgment of this entire case. … It’s his nature.” Because it was his nature, the judge concluded, Sam [Bankman-Fried] would, if given the chance, do something like what he had just done all over again. “There is a risk that this man will be in a position to do something very bad in the future, and it’s not a trivial risk, not a trivial risk at all,” said the judge. “So, in part, my sentence will be for the purpose of disabling him.” He then sentenced Sam to 25 years in prison, with no possibility of parole.

Sheesh, so many polls. Is it time for an enema after last time?

What About the Democratic National Convention?

Will it affect the Senate races? In a few select cases, yes, as the Senators and challengers get a chance to communicate with attendees, physical and digital. And if the Democratic Party can communicate a positive message concerning the economy, the Gaza War, and abortion, they stand to pick up a few more votes, both for their Presidential nominee, Vice President Harris and for various Senate races.

On the other hand, miscues could hurt them. The Gaza War protesters, who think they can control the Party’s intentions towards the Gaza War through violent protest, must be handled firmly but fairly. While protest has a place in American politics, violent protest is not acceptable and may even indicate that the protesters are being manipulated by foreign, overseas forces.

In short, don’t look for any big swings.

How About Abortion Access?

This is the biggest issue of this election cycle, and every State that has an abortion access constitutional amendment on the ballot will attract voters who would not ordinarily vote, regardless of whether it’s pro- or anti- access.

Endangering lives and choice will do that, as previous votes have decisively shown.

So every State in which an amendment relating to abortion appears will see a surge in voters who will look to vote for more access to abortion, and against those who would deny them. This will be part of the Democratic strategy, but don’t be surprised if Republicans try to introduce opposite amendments as well.

And When The T. Rex Trumpets?

• A Shock To Big Red? Credible polls for Nebraska are in short supply, so when YouGov (2.9, putting it at #4 on the FiveThirtyEight board) speaks, it’s worth a listen. YouGov is giving incumbent Senator Deb Fischer (R-NB) the lead over challenger Dan Osborn (I-NB), but at 43%-41% and within the margin of error, this is a race, not a rout. For a comparison, Senator Fischer won her 2018 reelection race by nearly twenty points.There are a couple of stories here. Mr Osborn apparently played the Democrats into not putting forth a candidate, meaning there’ll be no vote splitting between Democrats and Osborn. Indeed, I saw somewhere that Nebraska Democrats have endorsed Osborn. He’s a vet, and a union member & leader, which means that union members across the State may vote for him based on affinity. Here’s an Osborn profile by Politico.
  

  On The Issues: Senator Deb Fischer (R-NB).

  This almost certainly has an abortion component, as Dobbs was celebrated by many in Nebraska, but fatal pregnancy complications potentially afflicts nearly all women and, secondarily, men and children. Mr Osborn’s statement on abortion carefully treads the line between those who are for abortion availability and those against, casting it as a privacy issue, as did Roe v. Wade. And don’t forget that the Senator even voted against a bill intended to protect contraception. Her On The Issues summary, to the right, indicates she is an extremist as well.

  Mr Osborn’s independent political status evades the independent who cannot stomach Democrats, which may or may not have been Mr Osborn’s intention. I won’t pretend to know how Democrats are perceived in Nebraska, but certainly attempts to inculcate loathing for Democrats has been a salient point in Republican propaganda for years, even decades. It seems like half of right wing pundit’s Erick Erickson’s posts feature that thought.

  But, perhaps most importantly, is the concept of a Red Wall. Election followers are well aware of the Blue Wall of the Democrats, and how its “crumbling” doomed Mz Clinton’s 2016 run. This is a reference to the victories of Mr. Trump in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. Although not mentioned nearly as much, there’s a similar Red Wall (or Red Sea, I come to find out) of such States as the Dakotas, Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, and … Nebraska.

  Kansas has already shown signs of crumbling, to continue the analogy, as the governor’s seat has been held by Democrat Laura Kelly (D-KA) since 2018, or two elections. Is it now Nebraska’s turn to admit that the extremists of the right are incompetent and unpalatable in the area of governance? Their northern neighbor has certainly demonstrated this with the antics of the Kansas Republicans. See, for example, former Governor Brownback (R-KA) on this blog and many others.

  This race has certainly made it to the hot list, although the lack of polls makes that statement nearly meaningless.

  The only fly in the ointment is that Osborn sponsored the poll. But, as I state elsewhere, I don’t worry much about undue influence of high quality pollsters like YouGov.

  Finally, the reference to Big Red was not originally to the Republican Party, but to the University of Nebraska Cornhuskers football team, which was known, in the days of Coach Tom Osborne (later Rep Osborne (R-NB)!), as The Big Red Machine, or just Big Red. I’ll take the word play option around left end, though, and gather in the Party before throwing against the grain.

• 

  On The Issues: Matthew Corey (R-CT).

  Connecticut primaries have concluded, with Senator Murphy (D-CT) not facing any opposition, while Republican Matthew Corey (R-CT) advanced to the general election with 54.7% of the Republican ballots. While in another State that small number for Mr Corey might be disconcerting, in Connecticut Senator Murphy is expected to coast to an easy victory, even if Mr. Corey had collected 100% of the ballots. However, it’s worth noting that Mr Corey appears to qualify as a moderate and not an extremist, although data to this effect may be a trifle sketchy. Still, we may find that Mr Corey is the future of the Republican Party.

• In Arizona, WPA Intelligence (FiveThirtyEight rating of only 1.7) is only giving Rep Gallego (D-AZ) a two point lead, 48%-46%. The trick here? The sponsor is super PAC Club for Growth Action, a conservative group that’s been around for decades. Media azcentral does mention the sponsor and its antecedents, and, to quote:
  

  Democratic U.S. Senate candidate Ruben Gallego led his Republican rival Kari Lake by 2 percentage points in a poll released Thursday by a conservative group that still sees the race as close.

  I bring this up as a measure of how much the media is just blindly reporting numbers, and how much they’re reporting context and suggesting some information is of a doubtful nature. In this article azcentral does a good job. I’ve seen other media report doubtful polls with no criticisms, implicit or explicit. This article has several not included in the above quote.

  At this point, I’m thinking Gallego wins by ten as the Democrat messaging nails Lake on abortion and her generally unacceptable behavior since the 2022 gubernatorial behavior. While credible media cannot ignore an endorsed Senate candidate from a major political party, they can, and should, completely ignore her if & when she loses the Senate race. Hooting about supposed election cheating, with neither evidence nor relevant credentials, does not make for news, despite what newsroom editors might think.

  I am assuming the undercount for Democratic candidates that appeared in special election polls throughout the last couple of years persists through this election. If it does not, Gallego wins by 6-7 points.

  Redfield & Wilton Strategies (at 1.8, not much better), which I’ve seen before, may have a conservative tilt, but it still gives Gallego the lead, 44%-39% or five point lead.

  Meanwhile, top-rated The New York Times/Siena College (3.0) is giving Gallego a nine point lead at 51%-42%. That link leads to a paywall; data comes from FiveThirtyEight, as it always does. Almost.

  Finally, an abortion rights constitutional amendment has qualified for the Arizona ballot. This amendment may not only ensure the defeat of Lake, but make it an overwhelming rejection. At least, I figure it ups the chances.

• The New York Times/Siena College (3.0) pollster combo suggests Senator Rosen (D-NV) is, indeed, increasing her lead over challenger Sam Brown (R-NV) among likely voters, 49%-40%. Poll results for registered voters is 48%-37%, which I have to think is reflective of a certain disinterest in voting in Nevada. Regardless, Nevada is close to leaving the hot list as Republicans watch this dream fade away, given the results reported in the last Senate Campaign Update. Redfield & Wilton Strategies (1.8), for the record, gives Senator Rosen a much smaller lead at 41%-37%, which seems standard issue for this conservative pollster.
• On the other hand, Pennsylvania may be returning to the hot list. While the pollster Cygnal (2.1) has a fair rating, it also has a bit of tilt, inferred from out of line polling results and the language of its press releases (horn tootling bordering on bombast characteristic of the current crop of conservatives), so its results of 46%-42%, Senator Casey (D-PA) leading challenger David McCormick (R-PA?), aren’t much of a motivation to move Pennsylvania to the hot list. However, when Emerson College (2.9) gets a measurement of 48%-44%, it’s fair to say the race may be tightening up. Now, I have noticed Emerson College’s results tend to show tighter races than other pollsters, even top quality pollsters, so it may simply be a matter of how they’re interpreting the raw data. But it’s worth noting and remembering this poll result, even if Emerson College’s own press release says this:
  

  In the U.S. Senate election between incumbent Democrat Bob Casey and Republican Dave McCormick, 48% support Casey and 44% support McCormick; 8% are undecided. Since last month, Casey’s support among likely voters has stayed at 48%, while McCormick’s support among likely voters decreased from 47% to 44%.

  If McCormick’s decline in numbers is not an illusion then he’s unlikely to take the traveling trophy of a Senate seat home in November or January. It remains true that other pollsters show Casey with a bigger lead, and whether this is a ripple in the electorate’s desires or a result of Emerson College techniques is unclear. The credibility interval for the Emerson College poll is given as ±3 points, which means the Casey lead could be one point, seven points, or something in between. The poll sponsor is RealClearPennsylvania, which appears to be a conservative organization; however, I tend to think that top quality pollsters, like Emerson College, will wisely refuse to skew their polls for clients, as to do otherwise is to risk reputation and, in the end, their very existence.

  Also, Redfield & Wilton Strategies (1.8) gives Senator Casey the lead at 44%-36%, significantly larger than Emerson College. The latter uses a somewhat larger sample size, but I don’t know how much of either’s sample is from the chancier online world.

• In New Mexico, Redfield & Wilton Strategies (1.8) gives Senator Heinrich (D-NM) a lead of 42%-36% over challenger Nella Domenici (R-NM).
• Democratic Senate candidate Rep Kim (D-NJ) of New Jersey will be denied the advantages of appointed incumbency as Governor Murphy (D-NJ) has appointed George Helmy (D-NJ) to replace the scandal-ridden, convicted of accepting bribes, and resigning Senator Bob Menendez (was D-NJ, now I-NJ). Helmy is a former Chief of Staff to Governor Murphy and aide to Senator Cory Booker (D-NJ), and I suspect this is a Thank You from New Jersey Democrats to a loyal and productive member.Senator Menendez has also withdrawn from the race for his seat. I expect Rep Kim will win easily, incumbent or not.
• The political site Crooks and Liars has an article from Joan McCarter, a name I recognize from Daily Kos, suggesting the sleeper race of the year might be that between North Dakota Senator Cramer (R-ND) and challenger Katrina Christiansen (D-ND). It sounds like a dream to me, but then most victories start with dreaming. Maybe McCarter’s evaluation of North Dakota as soft on Cramer is correct. I’m still thinking it’s a ten to twenty point loss for Christiansen, but I’d be happy to be proven wrong.
• Ben Wikler on Daily Kos reports on the State Constitutional Amendments that came up for approval by the electorate in Wisconsin during the recent primaries, and were roundly rejected at the urging of Democrats. To my ear, it sounds like the Democrats have stirred up normally disinterested voters, and since this was not about abortion, it shows that abortion is not the only governmental issue that can stir up voters. The Republicans are taking their last shots at securing power following the redistricting ordered by the Wisconsin Supreme Court, and it seems the electorate was having none of it, as all the Amendments were unexpectedly rejected. Next stop? November. If there’s a lot of anger at Republicans for their proposals, we may see my neighbor to the east turn as blue as Minnesota, at least in the State Legislature.
• Abortion access will be on the ballot in Missouri, where we also have a contest between Senator Hawley (R-MO) and Lucas Kunce (D-MO). It will bring out concerned voters to try to legalize abortion, or not, but I doubt there’ll be enough Oh, yeah! votes to push Mr Kunce over the wall. Still, I could have it wrong.

Final Thoughts For This Edition

The Republicans, so confident at the beginning of this cycle, seem to be in deep trouble. Some may not realize it, but Senators such as Fischer (R-NB), Scott (R-FL), and even Cruz (R-TX) are discovering their races are not going as easily as the Republican base might have imagined six months ago.

I expect this will extend to the House races, and swing districts will be mostly won by Democrats in November.

Something we hear about in investment risk management is a natural tilt in human judgment against losses, even when it’s irrational. Now I’m wondering if that explains the behaviors of Mr. Trump, if Mr. Trump is more terrified, in his age-addled, narcissism-twisted brain, of losing more and more of his base, which would be a great insult to his ego – they no longer love me! – than he is of trying and failing to attract more voters, as any rational candidate might do.

After all, Trump has made little effort to conceal his distaste for former American POWs and, indeed, all American military service members, past, present, and future; his continuing alignment with far-right groups such as white supremacists; his insistence that the January 6th insurrectionists were, somehow, “patriots”; his characterization of PTSD in post-attack victims in the military as nothing more than headaches; and several other such appalling attitudes. These all share a link in that those who might agree enjoy bombastic, easy-to-understand explanations/solutions that are, Mencken-like^[1], wrong, but make their adherents feel good about attitudes that are now considered doubtful.

This is in opposition to other subjects as Project 2025 and abortion, which are less of an open question in the mind of believers, and more of a closed subject. He can distance himself, albeit ambiguously, from them with little damage to his core followers. Also,  Project 2025 is relatively recent and not well-known.

By repeating these statements, he’s choosing to solidify a base that reinforces his ego-need for approval. It’s a validation, a tangible validation that is far different from the anonymous validators he often tries to employ to protect his ego, such as Top Democrats call me and tell me I’m right! Rather than celebrate merely imagined validations, he can point at the cheering crowd and, as I’ve noticed in clips from his rallies, he adores those moments.

Basically, to gratify his ego he’s taking actions that label him an un-American goof in the minds of many voters, and pollute the water for his allies.

¹ From the horde of Mencken’s quotes, specifically,

For every problem, there is a solution that is simple, neat, and wrong.

For the reader infuriated by the above, I suggest following the above link. Mencken was no angel, being, as I understand it, anti-Semitic, but he has a collection of observations that characterize Americans quite well, without soothing their egos.

Is this the new version of a Jack In The Box?

The Big Empty (2003) is a movie about the collision of worlds. Or universes. Or thought paradigms.

John Person is a failing actor, trying for parts and failing, until one night he’s offered the chance to succeed as a courier: take the blue suitcase to a little town up near a dried up lake bed. On arrival, he discovers his contact, Cowboy, was at the Royal Hawaiian Hotel, and then left. The hotel night manager is a bit of a nut job. The bartender is aching to get out of town; her daughter is a maybe-nympho with a passing acquaintance with honesty and a murderous ex-boyfriend. Or is he?

And just what about Cowboy? Is he FBI? Or is the alleged FBI agent really an FBI agent? He seems … unreliable. How many days are we in the little town, trying to talk about masturbatory practices? I don’t want to know.

And then comes the big wrapup, twelve suitcases, twelve people, and a minibus, flashing lights and … well … where did everyone go? Who knows? Maybe not even the director.

My theory is that a universe separate from ours is brushing briefly against ours, and the inhabitants of the other universe are using our resources for their own purposes. All very mysterious. But you can make up your own.

Mind.

This sort of story is unsatisfying, as it’s not empathetic. We can’t put ourselves in the places of the characters and measure our reactions against there’s, because we don’t really gain an understanding of situation. It’s interesting, suggestive of realities in which we may be moral agents, but lack the knowledge that such agents require.

Be warned. And the special effect of the dry lake bed? My Arts Editor pronounced it a pebble ceiling, which made the body lying on it a bug stuck to the ceiling.

Perhaps not so good. Or perhaps very good.

Sprinkled with humor, horror, and mystery. Enjoy.

Yes, I know it’s been a week since the Fringe finished up, but, yes, I should mention the last two shows we saw.

A Horse Walks Out Onto the Stage and Dies: A show about a talking horse that has hurt its leg, it tries to use that bit of frippery to explore questions of life, death, the singularity of fame vs the common destiny of death, and allied themes. It’s not entirely successful, nor entirely a failure, and it has a certain small bit of charm, as well as the self-conscious flavor of the Fringe.

Daddy Issues: A one-person show featuring a pillar of a favorite company of ours, Allison Vincent of Trans-Atlantic Love Affair, this is an intensely personal meditation on the relationship between Vincent and her father, a man with a high level of training and accomplishment, who sank into a turbulent and wasteful physical and metaphysical swamp. Concentrating more on the reactions of Vincent rather than that of the father, I confess it stirs, at least for me, a fascination with what went wrong with him: an accomplished cardiologist, were there unmanageable costs in attaining that position? A loss of that necessary balance between understanding how to be part of a stable community, and that of personal accomplishment? A spiritual gap? I can only guess, and in that I’m somewhat hesitant, not wishing to sully her relationship with him, or anyone else’s, and yet the urge for analysis is undeniable, and it can be highly important.

Recommended, if she puts this on again.

Another ride on the giant catfish? How did that last one go?

What Should I Think of The Bullfinch Group?

Well, I don’t know. FiveThirtyEight doesn’t know about them, so they get no rating and presumably formed in the last couple of years. On the other hand, mastergardener2k on Daily Kos claims Nate Silver, who is no longer with FiveThirtyEight but has founded another blog, Silver Bulletin, is incorporating Bullfinch’s results into his meta-poll results. Silver Bulletin is a pay blog, and I respect that, but I’m not in the mood to open the wallet, so I’ll just relay the claim and let it lie there.

And What About BSG/GS Strategy Group?

Again, an unknown pollster. However, the sponsor of their polls is the venerable organization now known as The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter. Presumably, they will use a high quality pollster as a reputational necessity. And this might be them.

Run Down The Data On Your Bandersnatch! Wear Your Flashiest Spurs!

• In One Of The Silliest Polling Decisions Of The Season: Associated Industries of Florida sponsored a poll that found Senator Rick Scott (R-FL) with a 52%-42% lead over former Rep Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (D-FL). The pollster is … McLaughlin & Associates, with a hefty, ahem, FiveThirtyEight rating of 0.5/3, putting them at the bottom of FiveThirtyEight ratings, position #277, only above those pollsters so horrific that FiveThirtyEight refuses to rate them any longer. The media cited by FiveThirtyEight is Florida’s Voice, and shame on the latter for not noting the exceptionally dubious rating of McLaughlin & Associates in their report.But wait long enough and another poll comes along. This one is from Florida Atlantic University PolCom Lab/Mainstreet Research (I have a note saying they have a rating of 2.0, but I’m not able to find them in FiveThirtyEight’s current ratings), and it gives Senator Scott a lead, but it’s only 47%-43%, which puts a different face on this race. It also measures Mr. Trump (R) leading Mz. Harris (D) in Florida at this time, but only 50%-47%. Florida Atlantic University notes that
  

  While a specific margin of error cannot be assigned due to the online component, a poll of this size typically has a margin of error of +/- 3% at the 95% confidence level, with higher margins for subsamples.

  It’s possible that Florida voters may be tiring of Mr. Trump’s antics, much like Great Britain tired of Mr. Johnson’s last year, and that may be bad news for Senator Scott, a close ally of Mr Trump. In fact, Newsday notes that Senator Scott, who, in a former life, was a rich businessman (who ran a corrupt business, but that’s for a different rant while claiming to be ignorant of what eventually got his company convicted in court), is filling his campaign’s coffers from his own checking account:

  Florida Senator Rick Scott speaks during the second day of the 2024 Republican National Convention at the Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, July 16, 2024. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, Scott’s Democratic Senate challenger, has warned she is working to flip Florida to a blue state.

  Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, a former congresswoman who is now running for Scott’s Senate seat, said that Florida turning blue is “happening” in response to apparent issues surrounding Scott’s reelection campaign.

  Mucarsel-Powell was responding to reports that Scott is spending hundreds of thousands of dollars of his own money on his reelection campaign. Punchbowl News founder Jake Sherman posted on X, formerly Twitter, that Scott recently “dumped” another $725,000 of his own money into his campaign account. “Two days ago he put $31,996.67. Aug. 6 he put in $850,000,” Sherman added.

  Are donations drying up? Or is this a bridge loan to the next group of donations? The latter suggests poor money management practices on Senator Scott’s part; the former, a much worse situation.

• Unknown and unrated pollster The Bullfinch Group is giving Michigan’s Rep Slotkin (D-MI) an almost shocking ten point lead over former Rep Mike Rogers (R-MI), 48%-38%. Is this a liberal slanted pollster? I’d almost think so, but the same poll also gives Senators Baldwin (D-WI) and Casey (D-PA) large, but not out of line, margins; only the Michigan margin is out of line with current polls. But today’s out of line poll may be tomorrow’s in-line poll. We’ll have to see if this is a real outlier, or a leader.And now BSG/GS Strategy Group, working for The Cook Political Report, has a poll, although keep in mind that they are also an unrated pollster. What do they have? Slotkin leads 50%-42%. Not quite the lead in Bullfinch Group’s poll, but not far off.

  Then comes along the Frankenstein monster of Fabrizio, Lee & Associates/Impact Research (1.7) with another poll, a more reasonable 47%-44% lead for Slotkin. Is this coming down to Earth, or is Fabrizio/Impact behind the times – or even slanting towards Rogers? Their sponsor is the AARP, which doesn’t strike me as tilting one way or the other.

• In North Dakota, challenger Katrina Christiansen (D-ND) is, rather mysteriously, using Lake Research Partners (1.2) to discover Senator Kevin Cramer (R-ND) has a 51%-38% lead. It’s bad news from a questionable pollster. Why spend that money? Or is a 13 point margin not considered bad in North Dakota?
• Unknown and unrated pollster ActiVote gives Ohio’s Senator Brown (D-OH) an entirely reasonable lead of 53%-48% over challenger and Trump endorsee Bernie Moreno (R-OH). The trick here? A margin of error of 4.9 points, no doubt due to using a small (n=400) voter sample.
• Montana gets another poll that’s hard to evaluate: American Pulse Research & Polling, yet another unknown pollster, gives challenger Tim Sheehy (R-MT?) a 51%-45% lead over Senator Tester (D-MT).And, at the last moment, there’s another poll, this one from RMG Research (holder of a respectable 2.3 rating), this one giving Senator Tester a lead, 49% 44%, that is also close to the magical 50%. I do not recognize the sponsor of this poll, Napolitan Institute, but judging from one of their projects’ tag lines, I think they’re Democrat-aligned:
  

  Expose the Elite 1%

  Whether their partisanship affects their pollster, RMG, remains to be seen. But these numbers do align with that of respectable pollsters, while Sheehy’s lead is the opinion of unknown pollsters.

• 

  On The Issues: Rep Gallego (D-AZ).

  Two pollsters chart the fight over the soon-to-be vacant US Senate seat from Arizona, a contest between Rep Gallego (D-AZ) and former newscaster and election-denier Kari Lake (R-AZ). As neither pollster is known, I’m wondering if I should even bother, but I’ve come this far into the dead-end canyon, I might as well see the size of the beast making all that racket what’s there. Peak Insights (not rated), sponsored by the NRSC, a Republican organization, finds the race to be even. Given the partisan and nebulous nature of the polling, I think this is most likely delusional, although notably the NRSC references our second poll. The second pollster is BSG/GS Strategy Group, working for The Cook Political Report, and they have issued a more believable 51%-42% lead for Gallego. The truth may lie somewhere in the middle, but, to be observant, Gallego offers experience and a reality-based view of the world, if with a tilt to the liberal side, while Lake has no experience, a conspiracy-based mindset, a tendency to go for the throat which is incompatible in a democracy in a very complex world, and a thoroughly repugnant allegiance to Mr Trump. This should be an easy promotion for Gallego to the Senate. Just sayin’, Arizonans.

• In the Minnesota primary, Senator Klobuchar (D-MN) easily won her primary, while former NBA player Royce White (R-MN) (no relation) won the Republican nomination in a badly fractured race – he only collected 36+% of the Republican ballots. Klobuchar’s ballot count is more than quadruple that of White’s. This is a heckuva of a mountain for White to climb. Royce, that is.
• To the surprise of no one, Senator Baldwin (D-WI) and Eric Hovde (R-WI?) won their respective primaries in Wisconsin. Baldwin was unchallenged, and Hovde dominated his primary with 86+% of the Republican ballots. However, Baldwin remains the leader in the polls, and that may get worse rather than better, given the clownish behavior of the Wisconsin Republican Party. Independents who want a better alternative to the Wisconsin Democrats may have to kick the Republicans in the teeth to get their attention – or join the Party while refusing to accept the current nominees. That’s the traditional approach, anyways, and, given the out of bounds behavior of the Republicans, physically wrestling officials out of the Party may be the only alternative.

  Since I’m here, the above-mentioned BSG/GS Strategy Group, working for The Cook Political Report, has Baldwin leading, 50%-43%. This is closer than some recent polling. TIPP Insights (1.8), sponsored by American Greatness, gives Baldwin a 50%-43% lead as well. As the latter is almost certainly Republican-aligned, the admission of Baldwin’s commanding position is notable.

• Senator Hirono (D-HI) easily won her primary in her reelection effort in Hawaii, and her opponent from the Republicans will be Bob McDermott (R-HI), a former State Senator and former Marine. I fear this will not be close.
• This has to be causing shock waves in Nevada … except it’d have to come from a highly rated pollster, and not unknown (see above) BSG/GS Strategy Group, working for The Cook Political Report. They claim that Senator Rosen (D-NV) is leading challenger Sam Brown (R-NV) by an astounding 54%-36%. This is the kind of numbers that make me wonder if I should just ignore them … or consider them prescient. I figure Mr Brown is doomed, due to his position on abortion if nothing else, but not that doomed.
• In Texas, challenger Rep Allred (D-TX) is facing an unexpected hurdle to leap – his own Party:
  

  Three and a half years into an unprecedented border crisis impacting Texans in border communities and the state’s largest cities, high-profile Democrats are openly endorsing a Republican candidate for Senate who they never endorsed before: U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz. [Washington Examiner]

  Nothing like having an anchor in a 400m sprint. Then again, this is Texas, the home of money and its acquisition.

• In Vermont, Senator Sanders (I-VT) won the Democratic primary and Gerald Malloy (R-VT) won his primary. In terms of ballot numbers, it’s Sanders 2-1, roughly, and that will probably translate to the general election. I doubt any pollsters will bother with this race.
• And finally … Mississippi challenger Ty Pinkins (D-MS) is having a meet & greet in a couple of towns where my maternal grandparents and uncles once resided. Well, I think it was yesterday, actually:
  

  PASS CHRISTIAN, Miss. (WLOX) – On the ballot in the Magnolia State, Democrat Ty Pinkins is running against Republican incumbent Roger Wicker for his U.S. Senate seat. …

  The event is happening at the Randolph Center (315 Clark Avenue) from 6 until 8 p.m. [Biloxi-Gulfport WLOX]

  And that’s all, really. I’ve not been there in 50+ years, and I don’t remember much more than bees in the walls of my grandparents’ house, nasty nasty heat & humidity, and going fishing once in the Gulf of Mexico. The relatives are all gone, as far as I know, with the only cousin moving away to the Eastern Seaboard, unless the uncles had some productive flings which they kept secret from the rest of us. Or even grandpa. Just a sentimental memory now. Mr Pinkins? I have no idea if he’s making headway against Senator Wicker (R-MS). No polls, no nothing.

Reminders And Analysis

I’m ignoring Pennsylvania and Wisconsin poll reports, as I suspect these former hot races are more or less decided, but I will note that quality pollster Franklin & Marshall College Center for Opinion Research (2.4) has Casey up by twelve points, although not over 50%, yet. As ever, most of my hard data comes from FiveThirtyEight – my thanks to them for making this data public!

Insofar as seriously contested races go, the Democrats are defending well, with the understandable exception of West Virginia, and possibly Montana. Possible Republican losses are very limited, although Florida and Texas remain possibilities. Note that polling in Republican states is also somewhat limited.

In general, it seems the numbers have solidified for Democrats since President Biden retired from the race in favor of the Harris/Walz ticket. And if the Nevada result of Rosen leading by 18 points turns out to be mildly accurate, there may be Republican seats, even in this season of Republicans defending only ten or so seats, in danger of being flipped.

And it seems to be raining polls, now. A turbulent Presidential campaign has riled up the pollsters!

(Published Aug 16, 2024. Don’t mind me, just tracking a possible problem with the blogging software.)

Brat:

Charli told the BBC’s Sidetracked podcast that brat is a concept that represents a person who might have “a pack of cigs, a Bic lighter and a strappy white top with no bra”.

It has been deemed by some pop critics as a rejection of the “clean girl” aesthetic popularised on TikTok, which spurned a groomed ideal of femininity, and instead embraces more hedonistic and rebellious attitudes.

“You’re just like that girl who is a little messy and likes to party and maybe says some dumb things some times,” Charli explained on social media.

“Who feels like herself but maybe also has a breakdown. But kind of like parties through it, is very honest, very blunt. A little bit volatile. Like, does dumb things. But it’s brat. You’re brat. That’s brat.” [BBC]

Noted in “MAGA media panics over Trump’s increasingly insane campaign,” TheCriticalMind, Daily Kos:

Then President Biden bowed out and handed the baton to his VP, Kamala Harris.

The MAGA media was disappointed, but unperturbed. They believed the Democrats would turn the search for Biden’s successor into a circular firing squad. And should Harris prevail, she would be fatally wounded by the process. Besides, she had dropped out of the 2020 campaign without winning a single delegate. They reassured themselves that she was a lightweight campaigner soon to be nicknamed into oblivion.

But Kamala proved to be brat. Her campaign caught fire. Her selection of Tim Walz as running mate paid off in spades. Her run became a supernova of buzz, excitement, and energy. Thousands volunteered. Millions poured in. Double-haters became single-haters, and cast their lot with Harris. And suddenly Trump was the old man in the race. His act was shopworn, trite, and tired.

Professor Richardson provides the text, as I don’t have a Twitter/X account:

Tonight, X owner Elon Musk planned to “interview” Trump, although it seemed pretty clear the event was intended simply to be a long advertisement for him. European Union commissioner for Internal Market Thierry Breton wrote an open letter to Musk warning about E.U. laws against amplifying harmful content “that promotes hatred, disorder, incitement to violence, or certain instances of disinformation.” Breton warned that his team “will be extremely vigilant” about protecting “E.U. citizens from serious harm.” Musk responded with a meme that said: “TAKE A BIG STEP BACK AND LITERALLY, F*CK YOUR OWN FACE!”

My, oh, my. Has anyone informed Mr. Musk that children behaving badly usually have their toys removed?

He should think about that.

Right wing pundit Erick Erickson dips a toe in the water:

For these same Republicans who want to be as mean and nasty as the Democrats, the question must be asked: Is it time to ditch Donald Trump for a candidate who can win? The short answer to the question is no because Trump deserves a reset. But if the GOP does not get it right, I suspect after a loss some of his supporters will wonder about the ruthlessness.

The Republicans want to see Biden’s stepping back from the 2024 Presidential Democratic nomination as being a same-party coup, and that’s not entirely a fantasy. It’s not clear that Biden would have stepped back on his own, even after he contracted Covid and almost certainly could not fulfill his Presidential duties and campaign effectively simultaneously. Yes, even though he’d effectively defeated Mr Trump in their one debate, he presented as low energy and confused, despite the fact he eventually did reach the right answer on most or all the debate questions. I do the same when afflicted with a head cold, and I recover – but Biden’s age is a concerning factor, as I’ve said a few times.

So, by ruthlessness, Erickson means Republicans abandoning their disastrous allegiance to Mr Trump and replacing him as the Republican nominee for President. If they can.

Now, I’ve recently mentioned that his replacement presents a conundrum of its own, as no prominent member of the Republicans seems to have the gravitas to lead an Administration. Even Nikki Haley, former Governor of South Carolina and former US Ambassador to the United Nations, who won Vermont and the District of Columbia during the primary season against Trump, was obviously unconvincing to the bulk of Republican primary voters.

This campaign has been a course of campaign events punctuated by rarities: The two oldest candidates ever, an assassination attempt, a withdrawal by a sitting President, a SCOTUS which most knowledgeable folks are scorning for decisions such as Dobbs, more lies than you can shake a stick at, and VP picks that have drawn unusual attention. Each of these punctuations has caused momentum changes, and the selection of Governor Tim Walz (D-MN) by Mz Harris to run as her Vice President candidate has been an exclamation point to the momentum change that began with President Biden’s withdrawal and endorsement of Mz Harris for the nomination.

The Republicans surely have seen that. Indeed, in their eyes their imminent victory is slipping away, even if that imminent victory still had to survive 100+ days of campaigning and revelations, not to mention that it was the product of a chronic Republican overconfidence that they explain away as a consequence of electoral cheating, rather than the honest, if humiliating, evaluation of themselves as a bunch of arrogant twerps and grifters who are desperately out of touch with the majority of the American electorate.

I’ve been hearing a little about the possible sacking of Mr Trump, but it involved personalities such as Nick Fuentes, a far-right extremist far better suited to digging holes in the ground than working in politics. But if a radio host, a social influencer such as Erick Erickson, is beginning to make noises about the futility, even dementia, of Mr. Trump, we may indeed be seeing the exit of Mr. Trump in the not-too-distant future.

Or the immolation of a Republican Party wedded to Gingrichian precepts, Christian arrogance, and being sucked dry by charismatic – if you say so – cheats.

I’m not going to expect, precisely, the sudden retirement of Mr. Trump, as its impact on his ego might be too catastrophic for him to endure, but it may occur. And it would contribute to the most dramatic Presidential contest in living memory, a point that might appeal to Mr. Trump’s diminished intellect.

ADDENDUM

I just saw this in another post from Erickson, published earlier today. He’s just finished up his annual (?) political meeting called The Gathering, and I suspect it’s not hard to guess Mr. Trump’s sacking may have been a part of the agenda:

Forgive me. I am exhausted. Instead of writing on the subject, please just listen to this from yesterday’s show. I’m in the post-Gathering phase of exhaustion, and there’s no rest for the weary. [Follow the above link if you wish to listen to what he has to say — HAW]

The bottom line, however, is this — voting for Kamala Harris to stop Trump or save conservativism only tells Democrats that they need to do nothing to earn your vote. They do not have to moderate their position because no matter how extreme they are, you’ll vote for them if you have allowed Trump to radicalize you against him.

The better option for evangelicals and conservatives is to show up and vote and leave that line blank. That registers your disgust and makes you a meaningful demographic that both parties will want in order to win. That will force change. Voting for a pro-abortion candidate who will advance far-left positions just because you think the other side is bad will only ensure the side you vote for keeps moving left. They’ll treat your vote not as a vote against Trump but as an endorsement. You’ll be their cheap date.

Erickson is being squeezed by zealots on both sides, and he’s liable to explode. Or drop out. Or even go independent. But it’s clear that Mr. Trump is becoming unacceptable to large numbers of Republican voters, if I’m to read Erickson’s plea between the lines, and he’s saying, Please vote for Republican candidates except Mr. Trump, if you must.

Unfortunately for him, while most of those candidates lack the public profile of Mr Trump, they are, in their ways, just as bad and disconnected from the American public. The suppression of those who refused to back Mr Trump has purified the Republicans, but the purity is of their poison, not their goodness.

My goodness, this November may see a blow out of the Party who thought victory was imminent.

Speaking truth to power:

Mesa, AZ Republican Mayor John Giles: I do not recognize my party. I have something to say to those of us who are in the middle: You don’t owe a damn thing to that party. You don’t owe anything to a party that is out of touch and hell-bent on taking us backward. And by all means, you owe no loyalty to a candidate who is morally and ethically bankrupt. In the spirit of the great Senator John McCain, please join me in putting country over party and stopping Donald Trump.

Taking the Republican Party back from the extremists spawned by Gingrich’s Precepts will take more than Mr Giles, but he’s an important step. Mr Giles is a mooring post, ignoring the flood that pushes the fish about.