Author Archives: Hue White

Erick Erickson has been given the assignment of keeping his herd together, so he’s trying to inspire loathing and disdain for President Biden:

Today, he will announce executive action to secure the southern border. It is something he could have done three years ago. He is only doing it now because he is being led by the polls instead of leading.

Immigration and border security are major issues. For the last few months, they have been the top issues for Americans. Biden, acting now, opens himself to criticism for not acting soon.

But Biden is acting at this particular moment because he does not want to secure the border. By waiting until this moment and by broadcasting what he will do, he has given progressive activists enough time to prepare their lawsuits and run to court to enjoin his actions. A progressive judge in California will probably halt the executive order. Biden will try to look tough while also ensuring he can blame the courts for not letting him have his way. Unlike student loans, he will not try to find his way around this injunction.

This is all theater.

And, yes, it is theater – but, as Senator Schumer (D-NY) has hammered home, of a different sort. President Biden requested support from Congress on the matter, and Senator Lankford (R-OK) took the lead on hammering out a bill that most agreed imposed some of the toughest immigration measures in decades, but eventually he had some bipartisan support. Enough, he and Minority Leader Senator McConnell (R-KY) thought, to send it through to the House.

Then Mr. Trump, thinking he scented an opportunity, ordered his Senate allies to kill the bill. Reportedly, he’ll be using the border issue in his Presidential campaign.

And so President Biden did not get the needed Congressional support. After sensibly waiting for it, he’s forced to use a possibly illegal executive order.

I think Mr. Trump has, once again, miscalculated. With careful messaging, the immigration issue, much like the Republican’s loss of the Rule of Law Party appellation with the convictions of Mr. Trump, and the consequent attacks on law enforcement and the judiciary by his minions both in and out of Congress – a major loss of prestige for the Republican Party, worthy of the label fiasco – can become a Democratic advantage, by contrasting President Biden’s efforts to keep within the law while protecting the Nation, vs Mr. Trump’s heedless use of the issue to his own ends.

Erickson supports someone whose conception of ethics and morality centers around how he can use them to manipulate others to his own end.

This is what Erickson has been reduced to. Toxic team culture, appropriated by an ethically and morally challenged individual who charms the base into supporting him, is a disaster for the nation and for Erickson.

Mephitic:

smelling very bad:

• The creatures are believed to live in the mephitic swamps of the region.
• The mephitic fumes from the machine made their throats burn. [Cambridge Dictionary]

Some definitions suggested noxiousness unto death. Noted in “Russian arms dealer tells Alex Jones the US needs a new J6 insurrection to prevent nuclear war,” TheCriticalMind, Daily Kos:

Alex Jones interviewed [Russian arms dealer Viktor] Bout on his InfoWars show. The topic was Bout’s support for Trump and his promotion of a bigger Jan 6 insurrection. It beggars belief. Lord Haw Haw is now broadcasting from inside the house. The mephitic Jones claims he is a patriot. Bullshit. He is an enemy of America and Americans. Meanwhile, the MAGAs who think Jones is on to something are lost to reason.

Ever wonder if Dr. Fauci, our health leader during the Covid-19 pandemic, was, indeed, an evil mastermind out to make everyone wear a mask because, ah, it makes us look odd? WaPo’s Dana Milbank observes that the GOP mission to expose the retired doctor and NIH leader seems to have aborted:

Documents and testimony the panel gathered over 18 months, while finding misbehavior by a grant recipient and by an adviser to Fauci, produced nothing to substantiate these wild allegations. The United States did not fund research that created the pathogen. Fauci didn’t lie about the U.S. role in “gain of function” research at the laboratory in Wuhan, China. He didn’t try to suppress the lab leak theory, or bribe people to reject it. He didn’t get rich off the pandemic, either — although he testified that he earned about $120 a year from an antibody he developed years ago.

The gibbering madness exhibited by the GOP House members in the face of reason and facts can lead to a number of conclusions. My favorite is the failure of the news gathering organizations to survive as independent organizations has been a disaster for both citizens and Congress. A trustworthy, local news source that delivers the nonsense in which these members of Congress indulge, both before and after an election, should result in their elimination in competitive elections; weak news sources, both quality and in terms of being easily swayed by blandishments, mislead their audience to the detriment of voters and Congress.

In moderation, it brings roses. Bushes. Whatever. These blind shots came out rather lovely.

NOTE: This entry appears to have been inserted into the blog on May 1, so I’m republishing it. My apologies.

A fifth installment? Is this then considered a success? I doubt it.

The Trump Problem

The Republican Party has, as a whole, the problem of the former President Trump on their hands. Convicted of 34 felony counts falsifying business records, he is now a convicted criminal. His allies’, or perhaps more accurately minions‘, support of him is now a potential anchor around their necks.

And many of them added more and more cables to that anchor over the last weeks as they went to New York City and pronounced Trump innocent, thus discrediting themselves when the jury came back with a guilty verdict, and did so with notable speed.

Some Members of Congress don’t care. Representing safe districts or states, they only worry, or worried, about being primaried by challengers more extreme than themselves.

But for others, their alliance with someone who committed crimes in order to be elected seven years ago is a major problem for independent and moderate conservative voters, who will refuse to vote for both Trump and his allies, despite Democratic flaws.

It all depends on Democratic messaging. I expect it’ll be expertly handled.

And if Trump continues to shriek about rigged trials and claim there is evidence of his innocence that was not submitted at the trial, it only gets worse for him. His claim that he was not permitted to bring those witnesses forth is ludicrous to all but the most devoted MAGA-head.

Candidate Quality

Recognition that candidate quality matters to independent voters must be an irritating surprise for some ambitious would-be candidates, but it’s a necessity in today’s world of aggressive national adversaries and nuclear weapons. The Republican Senate Election debacle of 2022 occurred under the leadership of Senator Rick Scott (R-FL), but whether it’s because the Republicans see his leadership as a joke, or because he’s running for reelection this year, he’s been replaced with Senator Steve Daines (R-MT), who appears to be more serious about the job than Senator Scott. The Republican pundit Erick Erickson, despite his desperation to keep the herd together, seems to get it:

And winning the election means picking real candidates who are not going to alienate middle class, independent voters *cough* Kari Lake *cough*. Frankly, in 2022, the GOP nominated clunker candidates who scratched itches, but made independent voters squeamish. In other words, the right’s reaction to the left’s actions was to nominate candidates who could “fight,” but lost all the fights.

To my mind, in 2020 and 2022 the political far-right nominated power and position hungry candidates, ideologues who were ideologues because it gave them social prestige, and theocrats who either passionately believe they were doing God’s will, or were in it for the social prestige thing.

Erickson’s problem is that he’s looking for candidates who keep him happy, keeping in mind he’s a far-right wing extremist, while making independents happy as well, and that’s a really big stretch. Worse, the ideologically pure, right or left, are rarely competent politicians in the American mold. They may fit right in with the murderous cultures of V. Lenin or F. Franco, but being humble rather than ambitious and arrogant as required by many in America? Hard to do for them. After all, God’s on their side.

Here’s a short article on the aforementioned Senator Daines:

An early Trump supporter, Daines worked with the former president to secure his endorsement of [“winsome candidates”]. Trump endorsed Gov. Jim Justice over Rep. Alex Mooney in West Virginia, and former Navy SEAL Tim Sheehy over Rep. Matt Rosendale in Montana, as well as former representative Mike Rogers in Michigan, David McCormick in Pennsylvania (whom he had passed over for Mehmet Oz in 2022) and businessman Eric Hovde in Wisconsin.

For Daines, a winsome candidate has independent voter appeal, a laudable and important goal. Does Daines have the judgment and drive to push his selections over the finish line? I see some problems.

1. Daines, a former Proctor & Gamble business exec, appears to like fellow business execs (McCormick, Justice, Hovde) and ideologues (Rogers, Sheehy – the latter, a naif, burdened with a scandal already). I expect former Governor Justice to become Senator Justice (R-WV), but I see McCormick losing by two or more points to Senator Casey (D-PA), Senator Tester (D-MT) beating Sheehy by three points or so in Montana, and Hovde to be slapped down, hard, by Senator Baldwin (D-WI). Only Rogers has experience in government at the Congressional level, and even he has a reputation as an ideologue. I don’t know if Rogers can win or not, assuming he even wins his primary. Daines picks appear to fall into two categories becoming increasingly unpopular with independents.
2. Daines may be picking those he’s most comfortable with, and not evaluating them for legislative competence. That’s an amateur mistake.
3. And who interviewed Daines? Marc Thiessen, one of the WaPo conservative opinion writers who doesn’t see his job as being hard-hitting when writing of conservatives. I generally don’t read him because his evaluations are damn silly, such as Trump being the most honest politician out there, and if you do, don’t take his Expecting great things approach to heart. From what little I’ve read, he’s overly optimistic about conservative candidates.

Joan McCarter of Daily Kos believes GOP Senate candidates are, once again, of dubious quality.

Polling Pitfalls

Mercy Ormont on Daily Kos has a meditation on good pollsters and bad pollsters these days.

And In Senate Campaign News

• Apparently the selection of Royce White (no relation) as the GOP endorsee for the GOP’s nomination for the Minnesota Senate seat of Senator Klobuchar (D-MN) has stimulated reports from several outlets on his past behavior as a candidate. If you’re interested, Aldous J Pennyfarthing on Daily Kos has a schadenfreude-filled summary. The primary is still to come.
• Nevada’s Senator Rosen (D-NV) has some more encouragement in what was considered a competitive State as The Tyson Group has given her a startling 14 point lead over leading Republican candidate for nomination Sam Brown (R-NV), 47%-33%. However, this pollster’s rating is only 1.2 out of 3, perhaps due to its use of online participants, so Democrats shouldn’t become too excited. Indeed, perhaps I shouldn’t cite such pollsters.
• NBC News reports that the situation in New Jersey could be a lot more complicated than expected for the Democrats:
  

  Indicted Sen. Bob Menendez, D-N.J., has collected the necessary signatures to run for re-election as an independent, five people familiar with the matter said.

  Menendez needs 800 signatures by Tuesday to gain ballot access in November and hopes to reach closer to 10,000 signatures by then, said three sources with knowledge of his plans.

  One of the sources, who previously worked for Menendez, said Menendez, who is on trial on federal bribery charges, wants the number of signatures to be a “statement” in and of itself, “to show the level of support he still has.”

  Menendez’s pride could be the downfall of the Democrats’ dreams of retaining control of the Senate. New Jersey may suddenly be on the hot list.

• In Maryland the former Governor and Republican candidate for the open Senate seat Larry Hogan (R-MD), does the respectable thing when his Party leader is convicted on all 34 charges of felony business record falsification – he issues a statement reminding folks to act in a sober, serious manner:
  

  Regardless of the result, I urge all Americans to respect the verdict and the legal process. At this dangerously divided moment in our history, all leaders—regardless of party—must not pour fuel on the fire with more toxic partisanship. We must reaffirm what has made this nation great: the rule of law.

  In response, he’s been smacked in the metaphorical teeth by what passes for the Republican Party leadership these days. Hogan is attempting to rally the traditional Republican Party that understood what it meant to be an American political party, but it’s not at all clear that he’ll be successful. In some ways, it would be very healthy for the United States if he were to win. But there’s probably more benefit in Democratic candidate Alsobrooks winning. Maryland may be coming back off the hot list, but Hogan gets to join the list of genuine American political heroes, while most of the rest of the current Republican Party leadership will not be on that list. Only those who testified to the House Select Committee on the January 6 Attack would be eligible for the list, in my mind, such as former White House staffer Cassidy Hutchinson.

• An early May poll that escaped my attention gives incumbent Senator Casey (D-PA) of Pennsylvania an 8 point lead, 49%-41%, over challenger David McCormick (R-PA?). The pollster is GS Strategy Group, with a mediocre rating of 1.5.
• A mid-May poll in Washington gives Senator Cantwell (D-WA) a 9 point lead, 39%-30%, over the guy who they must consider the leading challenger, Raul Garcia (R-WA). Mr. Garcia has little experience in electoral politics. I’m sure Cantwell would like to be closer to the magic number of 50%, but she has a substantial lead. The pollster is Elway Research (1.9). The jungle primary is still to come in August.
• 

  Governor Jim Justice (R-WV). Source: Wikipedia.

  Senator Joe Manchin (D-WV) is now (I-WV). Might he be considering rescinding his retirement announcement and take on Republican West Virginia heavyweight Governor Jim Justice (R-WV) and relative unknown Glenn Elliott (D-WV)? In some ways, it feels like West Virginia is a businessman’s political playground, as Manchin, Justice, and Don Blankenship (D-WV) are all businessmen who’ve been involved in this Senate race. Could there be personal animosity animating some of these maneuverings? This is all speculation, but if Manchin does enter the race, the tug of war between the two political titans could allow Elliott to win. West Virginia doesn’t go on the hot list unless Manchin decides he wants to retain his Senate seat.

  By the way, the picture on the right of Governor Justice is just the sort of visage I’d rather not face for a job interview.

• In Wisconsin, GS Strategy Group (1.5) gives Senator Baldwin (D-WI) a 12 point lead, 49%-37%, over Eric Hovde. If a more respectable pollster gives similar numbers, I suspect the Republicans will write Hovde and Wisconsin off.Incidentally, Mr. Hovde is another businessman. Are the Republicans becoming the Party of the Businessman? They have a long association with Big Business, to use the old terminology, but usually as representatives of Big Business, not as what feels like a private club devoted to vanity  political runs. But with Hovde in WI, Scott in FL, Daines in MT, McCormick in PA, Justice, Manchin, and Blankenship (a former and, I suspect, future Republican) in WV, and no doubt a few others that slipped my notice or mind, well, that’s a lot of ridiculously rich businessmen seeking to buy themselves a Senate seat.Heck, it feels quite Roman. Buyers beware.

During the 2020 Presidential Election campaign Mr Trump was notorious for demanding that only votes counted on Election Day be valid, thereby excluding serving military, other overseas citizens, as well as early voters and mail-in votes.

How about other nations? This caught my eye this morning:

All 642 million votes cast during six weeks of the world’s biggest election, which ended on June 1, will be counted today. [CNN/Politics]

That would be India.

Irises are excited to get out there.

Up front is the baptisia.

Competition has been fierce for the nomination, but the idea of a group nomination from folks demanding the impossible is stronger than Republicans in Biden leaning districts presenting their allegiance:

Strongly worded statements are not enough.

Those who turned our judicial system into a political cudgel must be held accountable.

We are no longer cooperating with any Democrat legislative priorities or nominations, and we invite all concerned Senators to join our stand. pic.twitter.com/H0CzIjXgwC

— Mike Lee (@SenMikeLee) May 31, 2024

They later picked up the signatures of Senators Johnson (R-WI) and Josh Hawley (R-MO), totaling ten. These ten are, as pundits have pointed out, demanding the White House void a State-level decision, a blatant and brazenly illegitimate act if President Biden were to attempt it, and which would be blocked State-level machinery, or even lack of machinery on the Federal side.

And if Biden doesn’t, these Senators, all far-right wingers, will Take their toys and go home.

No, I mean it. If my reader lives in one these States, reconsideration of that Senator for their position should occur, and speedily.

But, of course, one cannot read this without wondering just who is pulling their strings, because this is a good bit of madness. Excepting Senator Johnson, who is clearly demented at this point and should be retracted simply out of Wisconsin pride, they should all know better. As functioning adults and Senators, this is a shameful bit of pathos that, if it appeared on a movie screen, would reduce the audience to laughter.

In other words, is “Supreme Court candidate” Mike Lee really serious, or is he just dancing to the instructions of someone with gobs of money? ‘Cuz if he really did consider himself a SCOTUS candidate, he should know this.

A question for the history books, I suppose.

In case you haven’t been following the trial of Mr. Trump for falsification of business records to conceal an affair that might have damaged his 2016 campaign beyond redemption, OR if you have been following the sliming of the prosecutor who now gets to put Trump’s ears on his mantlepiece, but have forgotten his name – forgetful of you – the prosecutor’s name is Alvin Bragg, and Colbert King has a schadenfreude-filled, and unexpectedly satisfying, column condemning the commentariat’s (his word, not mine) criticisms of DA Bragg:

One of the disappointments of the 2020-2022 House session was the failure of the Democrats to force House members to somehow isolate their House careers from their investment accounts, and some citizens are furious that nothing was done. So what’s the best way to convey the message? I like this one:

Watchdog groups have long believed that some lawmakers use [non-public information disclosed to members of Congress in private hearings and meetings] to make money in the stock market. Now a loose alliance of traders, analysts and advocates is trying to let Americans mimic the trades elected officials make, offering tongue-in-cheek financial products — including one named for former House speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) and another that refers to Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Tex.) — that track purchases and sales after lawmakers disclose them. [WaPo]

Their goal?

“Our mission isn’t to make everyone millionaires — it’s actually to highlight the hypocrisy of congressional trading in an effort to bring more transparency and trust back into our government,” said Christopher Josephs, the founder of Autopilot, an app that allows ordinary investors to mimic the trades of leading politicians, top hedge funders and other famous traders. “Hopefully it’s helping, but our slogan is, if you can’t beat them, join them.”

It might actually make the Congressional members richer, as increasing the demand for certain stocks will drive the price higher, and then when they sell the Congressional members will be the first ones out.

I do have concerns about what I’ll call non-organic trading, but at this point I’m reaching the edge of my experience. It sort of feels like a positive feedback loop, but I am uncertain that is true.

And the flowers are looking good.

Irises!

An out of focus perennial poppy.

Red lupine. They look a bit like Triffids.

Stenography:

Stenography, from the Greek words stenos (narrow) and graphein (to write), also known as shorthand, is an abbreviated or symbolic writing method that increases speed and brevity of writing as compared to longhand.  Historically, stenography was written by hand on paper.  The first stenography machines and keyboards were invented starting in the late 19th century.  Stenography using a machine or keyboard is also called machine shorthand or less commonly, stenotyping, or simply steno.  (See History of Stenography section for a great timeline that I went way overboard on.) [studysteno.com]

Which is not quite the same as steganography. Noted in “Don’t assume everyone is paying attention to the election,” Jennifer Rubin, WaPo:

I expected weeks of anticipation.

I guess no one was a MAGA-mole.

And the evidence and all was overwhelming. I didn’t watch or read obsessively about the trial, so I’m just goin’ with this outcome and what little I have read to form conclusions.

From CNN:

TRUMP GUILTY ON ALL 34 FELONY CHARGES

I know some pundits have opined that Bragg had overreached, or screwed up over this or that, but we’re in an age of weighing every utterance for maximum personal profit before issuance, rather than being honest in the interests of society. The constraints of the jury system, though, tends to obviate that.

And it takes little insight to predict the MAGA base – and Trump – will blame it on Biden and corruption. But it takes some doing to corrupt a jury and a grand jury, and if this is anything like the election litigation, it’ll just turn out to be Trump and his Trumpettes running their mouths. Again.

Off to mow the lawn.

“Just hang her up in the closet with the rest of the corpses.”

Detective Kitty O’Day (1944) started out defying our expectations, which were, to wit, a sexist police procedural, complete with cardboard characters. Instead, this story opens with secretary Kitty O’Day listening in on a phone call between her boss, middle-aged and tired financier Oliver Wentworth, and his wife, youthful and attractive Mrs. Wentworth, as he tells her he must skip their theatre date because of a sudden trip to Boston. Kitty is slyly assertive with everyone as her beau and Wentworth accountant, Johnny Jones, shows up with an immensely valuable packet of securities for Wentworth and a date proposal for Kitty.

Kitty must cancel as Wentworth requests Kitty come to his home to take some dictation, leading to some quite nice patter between Kitty and Jones. Sadly, this is the high point of the story. Between the cardboard cops who eventually are investigating the death of Wentworth, found hanging in his bedroom by our suddenly fainting violet Kitty, and later some more deaths, Kitty’s unbelievable choices in investigating Wentworth’s death, and the sudden appearance of the sexism late in the story, it just becomes a disappointing mess, a farce of a dated sort, not entertaining for modern audiences.

Or maybe I’m wrong. Maybe Gen-Zers would like the farce. Gen-Z readers, let me know via mail or comments if you like these farces.

But I didn’t like it, despite the promising opening. Too bad, the storytellers let themselves – and me – down.

This caught my eye:

Landgrave:

Landgrave (German: Landgraf, Dutch: landgraaf, Swedish: lantgreve, French: landgrave; Latin: comes magnus, comes patriae, comes provinciae, comes terrae, comes principalis, lantgravius) was a rank of nobility used in the Holy Roman Empire, and its former territories. The German titles of Landgraf, Markgraf (“margrave“), and Pfalzgraf (“count palatine“) are of roughly equal rank, subordinate to Herzog (“duke”), and superior to the rank of a Graf (“count”). [Wikipedia]

Noted in “Germany’s KILLER TOILET! Erfurt latrine disaster | Heinrich VI Holy Roman Emperor,” History Calling, YouTube, roughly 1 minute in:

The Libertarian Convention took place a day or two ago, and Mr. Trump came to seek its endorsement. What did he get?

I went through Trump's appearance at the Libertarian National Convention. If you're ever in the need for a pick me up this is one minute of a crowd booing Trump. I cut out as much of his voice as possible. You're welcome. pic.twitter.com/nV0GTF7IFq

— Decoding Fox News (@DecodingFoxNews) May 26, 2024

The Libertarian numbers are small enough that they aren’t a real force in politics, and they know this. That’s why they’re a member, informal as it might be, of the Republican coalition; the Reason magazine slogan of Free Markets, Free Minds slogan, and all it implies, makes it hard for them to interact with the Democrats.

But the Republicans are moving away from free markets, as evidenced by attempts to pick winners by Mr Trump during his Administration, and this will drive away libertarian true believers. In essence, we’re seeing the stripping away of fellow travellers and loose adherents from the intolerant core of Republican True Believers. The bulging eyed believers are engaged in competition to move up the social power ladder of the Republican Party, and one approach to this is to expel those who do not have the exact same tenets, often known as RINO^[1]-ism in this context. Purity is all.

Mr. Trump recognizes, in some dim way, that this is the destruction of his national influence; he, and his successors, are in imminent danger of being shunted aside into obscurity and impotence. Whether or not any of his allies also realize this is questionable, since many have only recently risen to prominence and have not the experience to properly scent the wind of public opinion. But this recognition explains Mr. Trump’s appeal for the nomination, and it’s a vivid depiction of his political fate.

What’s to come? I speculate that one to three conservative states will be informally chosen as havens for the MAGA base, adopted homes for purity of MAGA ideology. By overwhelming local opposition electorally, they’ll retain some presence in Congress, but intra-party competition will be much like it is today, metaphorically cut-throat. It will be unpleasant and drive away those who tire of the drama, even if they’re faithful.

Meanwhile, conservatives who cannot stand liberals and cannot stand Mr. Trump will get together and form a new party. I doubt they’ll take over the libertarians, and the other small conservative parties are probably not worth the effort. Call them the New Republicans, I suppose. They’ll make a go of advocating for pro-life positions initially, and, at some point, that’ll be quietly dropped as a matter of individual choice. It’ll be a long trip to the correct conclusion.

Groups betting on the Republicans may lose their bets, big time. Check out this article on the cryptocurrency industry, which appears to be betting more on Republicans than Democrats, although they get a mention as well. And notice how crypto is wriggling to get out from under the thumb of the SEC, substituting the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). Ya gotta wonder how the legal powers of the CFTC compare to the SEC’s. It all feels quite corrupt, especially for an industry that threatens both citizens’ wealth and the energy infrastructure of, well, the world.

And the Democrats? They’ll continue to puzzle over their lack of positive popularity in many locations, having to use negative campaigning such as The Republicans will take away your reproductive freedoms! rather than campaigning on their own proposed solutions to upcoming policy problems. The arrogance exhibited by both major parties will continue to repel the electorate, and proclamations that Americans are just racist, bigots, or whatever, and that explains Democratic failures will not help the Democrats improve.

Incidentally, the Libertarians selected Chase Oliver as their nominee. He demonstrated why the libertarians will continue to split from Republicans immediately:

Oliver, a 38-year-old gay man from Atlanta with socially tolerant and pro-immigration views, delivered a passionate response after Trump’s speech to the convention on Saturday. Now, he will get to spend the next six months competing directly against Trump and President Joe Biden, two men more than twice his age. After winning on Sunday, Oliver promised to keep pressing a message that neither major-party candidate is likely to offer.

Not exactly attractive attributes and positions to the MAGA base.

It took Oliver seven rounds of balloting, and the last ballot saw his remaining competitor be None of the above. He beat NOTA with only 60.6% of the ballots, which suggests some dissatisfaction in the Libertarian ranks, but that’s unsurprising. Libertarians like to think themselves as an intellectually rowdy bunch.

¹ RINO is Republican In Name Only. It’s the hunting cry of the power-hungry.

I’m so tired of “move on.” It’s dumb.

Let morph it to “advance.”

So on May 14th I listed four stocks I happen to watch as having jumped in price from 20% to 60% for the day. What has happened since?

• GameStop (GME), up 60% that day, has since fallen back to $18/share. Prior to the sudden ramp up, it’s price range was $10 to $15 a share, so while it’s still up 80% off it’s $10/share floor, it’s recent high of nearly $48/share suggests the wind is rapidly leaving its sales. Sails. Whatever.
• MicroCloud Hologram Inc. (HOLO) is showing a price of around $1.60/sh today, which is darn nearly its “normal” price prior to the storm of the meme hitting. Its recent high? Back in February it was at $66/sh. The May 14th jump of 60+% was a little upward jump in an otherwise long, long slide down.
• FuelCell Energy, Inc. (FCEL) was actually recovering from an abnormal low, an observation that can only be made in retrospect, moving from $.70/sh to $.89/share. It’s bounced around since May 14th, but today it’s at $.88/share. The real question, for the investor, is why it hasn’t return to its highs of $1.20/sh in March and April.
• MicroVision, Inc. (MVIS) has a story akin to FuelCell’s; only the numbers change. This also applies to the questions.

So GME and HOLO are probably typical meme stocks, to the extent that there are typicalities for such a new and unworthy category, and while they act like pump ‘n dump schemes, the pumpers are not the typical single entities of my youth, but rather groups of cooperating small investors who don’t understand the market like they should. FCEL and MVIS are  really traditional tech & manufacturing firms in which the questions are more along the lines of Who wants your tech? and Is your tech obsolete?

Notice those are what are known to the investing industry as fundamental questions: what are the companies doing? Technical investing is more of a psychological game, and applies to GME and HOLO, although it’s even odder than traditional technical investing.

Erick Erickson’s reaction to Mr Trump’s hysterical They’re out to get me is on the mark:

I am increasingly worried about the perpetual outrage that seems to be enveloping the right. The perfect example is this morning’s revelation of “use of force” language in the DOJ search warrant for Mar-a-Lago which has spawned countless people to claim this was an assassination attempt by Joe Biden against Donald Trump. As I wrote this morning, this is pro forma language included in every search warrant which the DOJ moronically forgot to remove.

This was dumb, but to claim it was an assassination attempt simply doesn’t hold water. The DOJ coordinated with the Secret Service to only enter the property when Trump was not present and planned to use the same language in the search warrant for Biden’s property before the President’s team invited them inside. But the outrage machine is spinning out of control on the right over it. Members of Congress and countless pundits are spilling vast amounts of ink to whip everyone into existential outrage.

To which I’d only like to add, If Trump were actually serious in his claims that Biden had sent the FBI to assassinate him, then why isn’t Trump in his airliner, traveling to the safe haven of Russia?

The problem is that the MAGA base has been trained not to step back and think. Just react.

It’s a cult.

Yes, it sure does.

The brilliant but shy orange azalea. Here’s an extra picture of a next door neighbor.

Where a fourth installment of Senate campaign news appears … When will he run out of fingers? readers ask. It’s perhaps best you don’t ask about my source of countin’ fingers.

Latest News

• Latest polls for the reelection run of Senator Cruz (R-TX) do not show a close race, but The Texas Tribune notes an interesting behavioral change:
  

  Heading into the heat of his reelection race against Dallas Congressman Colin Allred, U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz is testing the waters with a rebrand.

  Cruz, who has made a name for himself as an uncompromising conservative stalwart, is casting himself as a bipartisan lawmaker with a penchant for reaching across the aisle.

  “I actually have very good relationships with many of my colleagues across the aisle,” Cruz told The Texas Tribune, citing his work with Sens. Kirsten Gillibrand, Cory Booker and Amy Klobuchar. “I’ve worked with all three of them and all three are friends.”

  The interview was part of Cruz’s recent media blitz highlighting his work with Democrats, off the heels of his “Democrats for Cruz” announcement which aims to attract left-leaning voters this November. He debuted that messaging during a Laredo meeting with the U.S. Hispanic Business Council, where he stressed the value of bipartisanship legislating and enumerated several bills he’s written with Democratic senators. Meanwhile, Cruz is blasting Allred as not as bipartisan as he claims, citing the Democrat’s voting record with his party’s leadership.

  Do internal polls at the Cruz campaign show a closer race than anticipated? Or does Cruz scent a falling off of support for Republican antics? The Texas Tribune notes a pair of older polls as potential justification:

  The rhetorical shift comes as polls show another tight race for Cruz. A February poll by the University of Texas at Tyler showed the two candidates equally polling at 41%. Another poll conducted in March by Marist College found Cruz ahead by six percentage points.

  While UT-Tyler only has a 1.9 stars (out of 3) rating, Marist College has a 2.9 rating, both from FiveThirtyEight. Still, March was a long time ago; a bit of research yields a YouGov (2.9) poll giving Cruz a +13 advantage. I’m not sure The Texas Tribune can yet justify its assertion of a close race, even factoring in chronic Republican underperformance. Can Allred make up the difference? I noticed in the same YouGov poll the section Colin Allred Favorability Trend indicates improvement by the Representative.

• The Florida race between Senator Scott (R-FL) and Rep Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (D-FL) has produced some interesting polls. Here’s a summary:
  The margins easily categorize the pollsters into excellent ratings and mediocre ratings, and is instructive in the importance of pollster knowledge of past performance when surveying polls. While Mucarsel-Powell remains substantially behind, even assuming chronic Republican underperformance holds true for Senator Scott, eight points is potentially manageable over the next three or so months.
• Is Arizona getting away from the Republicans? In the race for the open Arizona Senate seat, YouGov (2.9) gives Democrat Ruben Gallego a 13 point lead over Republican Kari Lake, 49%-36%. If Lake, one of the more prominent proponents of election-denial and election machine corruption, loses precipitously, that may bring discredit down on the movement, as well as blot all over Mr. Trump, although they'll scream cheaters!, in accordance with movement tactics. But having Gallego as Senator for six years exposes Arizona voters to Democrats, and independents may notice an improvement in representation, although the late Senator McCain (R-AZ) was certainly not an extremist.Meanwhile, Florida Atlantic University (2.0) gives Gallego an 8 point lead, 48%-39%. Welcome to rounding.
• Florida Atlantic University (2.0) gives Nevada incumbent Senator Rosen (D-NV) an 11 point lead over likely Republican nominee Sam Brown, 48%-37%. Brown, however, is not unchallenged in the primary, including attacks by businessman Jeff Gunter (R-NV). Polling seems to show Brown's dominant position in the primary is unaffected, but primary polling is notoriously fickle. It's quite possible the Nevada Republican voters will fracture and alienate from each other, though, dooming the undetermined Republican nominee.
• In Minnesota, the Minnesota GOP has endorsed former NBA player Royce White (R-MN) for the nomination. Primaries are still to come, though, and the Republican primary field has six other candidates, according to Ballotpedia. Senator Klobuchar (D-MN) faces a single opponent, Derek Logan (D-MN), in her primary run.

The inimitable Randy Rainbow keeps riding the horse.

Perhaps an unfortunate metaphor, since that horse is pulling up lame.

BORG drinking:

The acronym BORG stands for “blackout rage gallon,” according to the National Capital Poison Center in Washington, DC. The term refers to a concoction often prepared in a gallon-size plastic jug that typically contains vodka or other distilled alcohol, water, a flavor enhancer and an electrolyte powder or drink. BORGs are often drunk at outside day parties, otherwise known as darties. [“What is BORG drinking, and why is it a dangerous trend? An expert explains,” Terry Ward, CNN/Health]

Back in the day this might have been called Thinning the herd. Add a scratchy, old guy’s voice if you so choose.