About Hue White

Former BBS operator; software engineer; cat lackey.

The Gracious Winner

Who the hell votes for this guy?

Former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy is resigning from Congress and will leave at the end of this year, he announced in a Wall Street Journal op-ed on Wednesday — a highly anticipated decision that comes two months after his unprecedented ouster from the speakership. …

McCarthy is leaving Congress having made a few enemies within the House GOP Conference. Florida Rep. Matt Gaetz was quick to take a victory lap, posting “McLeavin” and promoting a previously released thirteen-minute video based on the ouster of McCarthy, which he led. [CNN/Politics]

I don’t mean McCarthy, who is reportedly quite the charmer, but this idiot Gaetz, who apparently never grew up beyond 8th grade.

I wonder if such behavior will cost him his seat next election. I suppose it’s up to the voters in his district as to whether they want to be represented by an adult, or a child.

Irrelevant News

Jennifer Rubin of WaPo is frustrated with tomorrow’s news reporting and has an alternate proposal:

Now imagine if, as the mainstream media did when the New York Times released a poll showing Biden trailing in five of six key battleground states (improbably showing Biden leading among 18- to 29-year-olds by only one point and trailing among 30- to 44-year-olds), the media blanketed the airwaves and splashed these findings over the front pages for days on end. We would see headlines such as: “Biden rebounds with young voters!” and “Trump lead collapses!”

Cable TV panels would explain how Trump’s fascist references, his threats directed at judges and cozying up to Russian President Vladimir Putin were finally backfiring. We’d hear that Bidenomics, far from being a political dud, was not only an economic winner but a political tour de force. Vice President Harris’s “Fight for our Freedoms College Tour” in seven states had ignited enthusiasm among young people, more than proving her value to the ticket, pundits would explain.

Then we would have a raft of “Republicans panic” stories in which Republicans confessed they knew Trump was a disaster but had no way of offloading him. Republican donors would be quizzed about their reluctance to give money to someone “losing” the race. Republicans would fret over the lack of a “Plan B.” Republican consultants would bemoan the failure of the “age issue” to damage Biden. Leaks from the Trump camp would explain that the candidate had gone into an emotional tailspin. (Maybe even stopped eating?) And this would go on for days and days, coloring virtually all coverage of the campaign.

Or, in other words, Big Polling has a grip on the news? Emerson College or Siena College brays out a poll that shows discontent a year out on a Presidential election, before the incumbent has really begun messaging, and it’s treated seriously.

One has to wonder how much money is influencing the direction of reporting. Polling, after all, is, to some extent, synthetic news, estimates of the inclinations of voters long before most have made up their minds. The news is the polling process; the results, not so interesting or important. But if the news organizations can sell it, then they fill their pages with it. It’s cheap news, because it’s delivered to their doors, rather than having to chase it down, and cheap punditry.

But what if news organizations weren’t measured by dollars profit, but by accuracy and insight and trustworthiness? Would year-early polls still fill the pages?

Or, as Rubin wishes, coverage of issues and positions?

Belated Movie Reviews

And prosperity to you, Mr. Spock. Are you in the secret service as well?

Kingsman: The Secret Service (2014) is, as my Arts Editor observed, a cheeky little movie, but it’s not much more than that. A young man, Eggsy, caught in the swamp of a brutal family of the British underclass, is given an unique opportunity to join a spy service and get all the toys, and we get selected episodes from his training.

Meanwhile, an American scientist has come up with a way to solve a pressing international problem. It’s, ah, violent, if somewhat clever; but whether or not it should be accepted and supported, or rejected and fought against, by this secret service and, for that matter, Eggsy, is never up for debate. This plot failing really lessens the story, even if it’s intended as a comedy, because the character, in an important aspect relevant to the story, becomes a nothing, someone to whom we cannot connect because there’s nothing to which to connect.

And to call it a comedy is a bit of a stretch in itself. It’s certainly not a Python-esque farce, as one might expect for a film about the British, nor is a single theme ridden to death. The sex talk with the Swedish princess is a bit of a hoot, but it’s just a tangential throw-off; there’s an attempt to make violence a comedic metaphor, but why victimize American low-church traditions? Even for an agnostic or atheist, who may find their beliefs and activities silly and even foolish, it’smore puzzling and even offensive than anything else.

But for all these criticisms, I am weighing seeing its sequel. This was not an awful story, for all its flaws. Eggsy grows and changes throughout this story, and I’m curious as to where he’ll go next.

If anywhere at all.

Don’t Confuse Goals With Methods

In “Trump not immune from being sued for Jan. 6 riot, judges rule,” a WaPo article, there’s a sly logic problem that a Trump attorney attempts to get by the judges:

Trump attorney Jesse Binnall said at oral argument that it didn’t matter that Trump’s purpose was political. “You cannot separate the governance from reelection,” he said. “If the president wants reelection, it’s so he can continue to govern.”

Governing is what a political executive does, but it’s not necessarily why a politician seeks election or reelection. It might be, but it can, and more often is, a satisfaction of the ego needs of the politician, or a stepping stone to higher office, or a goal peculiar to the emotional or professional requirements of the politician. In Trump’s case, protection from prosecution seems obvious, while less obvious is to derive pecuniary benefit beyond the pale from his position.

Although speculating on the drives of a man who seems to be driven by equal parts religious mania and pathological narcissism is probably a mug’s game.

Through this assertion, Trump’s attorney hopes to immunize Trump from further investigation into his motives. It won’t work, I trust, as the judiciary is full of smart eggs who should see through this ploy.

And He’s Out Of There!

At long last, Rep George Santos (R-NY) is now the former and disgraced Representative from New York:

  • The House voted Friday to expel indicted New York GOP Rep. George Santos over ethics violations, making him only the sixth lawmaker ever to be ousted from the chamber. The resolution passed 311 to 114, with 105 Republicans voting in favor of expulsion. All four top House GOP leaders voted to keep Santos in Congress.
  • The embattled former lawmaker survived previous attempts to remove him, but there was growing momentum for this effort in the wake of a scathing ethics report, which concluded he sought to exploit his House candidacy for personal profit. Santos announced he wouldn’t seek reelection after the report, but refused to resign[CNN/Politics]

Notably, the expulsion is the work of fellow New York Republican Representatives, which they’ve pursued for some months. Much like a hypothetical Tuberville expulsion, Santos’ expulsion works in favor of the Republicans, even if it is a substantial hit to their majority in the House, because it’s a virtue signal: the Republicans, who’ve been acting like dirtbags for years now, do have limits.

That’ll reassure some independent and moderate Republican voters.

But will it be enough to tilt the power balance? I think the Santos/Trump association was, and is, inconsequential; Trump vs Biden result remains a matter between them, with Trump’s dementia and lean towards autocracy against the perception, false or not, that Biden is doddering and incompetent to manage the economy.

And retaining the House? I might have given them a chance to do so if the abortion issue didn’t exist, but it does, and I think that’s the primary issue of the next election. Santos’ seat probably flips to the Democrats, as do a bunch of swing districts plus a few “safe” districts sacrificed, much to the Republicans’ surprise, on the altar of anti-abortionism.

So it’s good to see the political world reject the crass mendacity of Santos, but I do not think it’s nearly enough for the Republicans to somehow make any gains at the Federal level.

Senator Tommy Tuberville: The Opportunity

I’m guessing that’ll be a movie title fifteen years from now. But the opportunity is not for him.

U.S. Sen. Tommy Tuberville reportedly told Republican Senators on Tuesday he will find a way out of the stalemate caused by his holds on military promotions and nominations.

Tuberville said he will do so before Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) brings a resolution to the floor in coming weeks that would “swiftly confirm the hundreds of highly qualified and dedicated military leaders being held up by Senator Tuberville before the end of the year.”

That is according to posts on X, the social media platform formerly known as Twitter, from reporter Andrew Desiderio of Punchbowl News.

“Listen, everyone. I got y’all into this mess. I’m gonna get you out,” Tuberville reportedly said during a closed door lunch. [AL.com]

I’ll not try to insert a tiny picture of the Senator into this tableau. Use your imagination.

The opportunity is for the Republican Senators. They’ve already partially grasped the nettle by forcing through a few of these promotion approvals at the highest of levels for which they are responsible, perhaps motivated by the heart attack of the commandant of the Marines, who was reportedly doing two high-stress jobs due to Tuberville’s antics.

But it’s dumb. Tuberville’s blocking of promotions in protest of Secretary of Defense Austin’s policy that military members in need of abortion care will receive free transport is wrong on a number of levels: abuse of his Senatorial privileges, attempted circumvention of proper democratic debate and voting, imposition of religious views in violation of the Establishment Clause, and, of course, all of his lying and mischaracterizations of the situation are deeply dishonorable.

Nevermind the repeated unanswerable rebuttals to the anti-abortion arguments.

So what’s the opportunity? With just a little support from the Democratic side of the aisle, the Republican Senators could easily arrange for the expulsion of Senator Tuberville.

Seems unlikely? Sure. But it carries a few positives for the Republicans.

  1. For a lot of Democrats and independents, the allegiance of Republicans to the United States has become an open question. Tuberville, representing a crippling force to the American military, is the iconic example. By kicking him out, the Republicans will go a ways to repair that reputation.
  2. Those Republican Senators who vote against expulsion self-identify for being extremists themselves, and become targets for being primaried – by moderates.

Alabama Governor Kay Ivey is a Republican, and I think she gets to appoint the replacement, so there’s no threat of the Republicans losing the seat immediately, and if the Alabama GOP can avoid nominating Judge Roy Moore again, they’ll retain it in the special election. And since the Republicans are currently in the minority in the Senate, it’s not of consequence if they go down a vote for the couple of days a replacement takes.

Right now, Tuberville is making the Republicans look terrible. If they were to recognize this opportunity for what it is, it’s a remarkably cost-free way to rebuild their tattered reputation, and to shore up a military that is apparently in some distress.

And be rid of an ignorant, incompetent ass.

Uh, That Seems Odd

I’ve read most of the Lawfare article explaining what’s going on here, but it still rings false to me:

In September, a Southern District of New York (SDNY) judge ordered Argentina to pay $16 billion in damages to two minority shareholders of YPF, a state-controlled Argentinian oil company. The judgment was the result of a breach of contract related to Argentina’s 2012 nationalization of a controlling stake in the firm, and it is the largest-ever judgment against a sovereign country in a U.S. court. For perspective, it dwarfs the $2.4 billion settlement that hedge fund Elliot Management won, also in SDNY, in its (in)famous attempt to collect on Argentina’s defaulted public debts.

It’s not just the size of the penalty, which seems out of scale, but the fact that a Federal court can order a sovereign state to pay a penalty.

I wonder if it’ll ever be paid:

Although the district court has issued its final judgment, this does not mark the end of the case. Argentina has filed an appeal with the Second Circuit and has obtained a temporary suspension of the start of payments pending that appeal. Argentina’s president-elect, Javier Milei, has not yet commented on his administration’s proposed strategy in the case but has suggested that YPF will be reprivatized. For plaintiffs, the focus now shifts to collecting this unprecedented payment.

It’s Me Or The Road!

I see the Republican Party continues to tear itself apart with the advent of what might be considered a traditional power play in a very non-traditional environment:

The influential network associated with billionaire Charles Koch will throw its money and influence behind former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley in the Republican presidential primary, the group announced Tuesday.

The decision could dramatically reshape the Republican field – roughly seven weeks before the Iowa caucuses – as Americans for Prosperity Action deploys its vast resources and standing army of conservative activists on behalf of the former South Carolina governor.

The endorsement marks the latest sign that powerful Republican donors are coalescing behind the candidacy of the former US ambassador to the United Nations. She has seen prominent figures join her campaign in recent weeks, particularly after South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott exited the race. [CNN/Politics]

The problem here is that the Republican Party, which had been based on a Party loyalty so strong that it rendered questions of experience and competency tragically meaningless, is grappling with the ultimate in selfishness and self-absorption, which is symbolized by former President Trump, and becoming more and more the norm as old members of the Party leave or die out, to be replaced by far right extremists.

I’ve talked about this before, but it’s worth reiterating: the inability to compromise, the arrogance that drives these new members and faux-leaders, effectively makes the Party into a collection of mini-Parties, centered around principles of dubious worth, personalities, grudges, and other ephemera ill-suited to a mature approach to politics and, more importantly, governance. Bitter internecine primary fights result in partisan voters reluctant to vote for the Republican who opposed their Republican.

Into this pit of magma is driving the Koch Network, a traditional power house built on the riches of oil-drilling. While long-time political analysts apparently are seeing this as a potential game-changer, the real power in conservative circles has transitioned to the “base,” the collection of voters who prefer the former President and his brutal proposals to the more knowledgeable and nuanced ideas of his fellow Republican would-be candidates for the job of President, such as DeSantis, Haley, Hutchinson, Scott, and others. It’s worth mentioning that I may slightly overstate the case. Add in the unknown assistance rendered by foreign adversaries backing the most incompetent President in modern times, and the Koch Network faces a formidable mountain to climb.

In the base’s eyes the former President retains his magic, and so far there’s little to suggest a mass retreat in his support can be brought about by anything, although it’s hard to say how many voters, in dribs and drabs, have opened their eyes and seen; the blunders of the Democrats also complicates matters. Given Trump’s frantic protection of his taxes, it may be revelations concerning his alleged riches are his weak point, but that’s not entirely clear.

But I expect the Koch Network support of Not you, Trump! to be yet another big fizzle. It will enrage the former President even more, as his immaturity won’t permit him to graciously defeat and then use Koch’s powers to enhance his campaign; it’ll be necessary to destroy the Koch Network, and humiliate all the major players, thus neutering them not only for themselves, but as useful representatives of Trump himself. Voters won’t trust them. Worse yet, Charles Koch and his late brother are/were billionaires, a status that Trump deeply desires and has claimed without evidence. His antipathy towards Koch and those they back will be strong.

This feels like another part of the Big Rip afflicting the mislead GOP.

Word Of The Day

Photographic auroras:

Photographic auroras (visible to the camera, but not the eye) descended to mid-latitudes. “Today brought yet another photographic aurora here in the southeast of England at latitude +51N,” reports Jamie McBean of Herne Bay, Kent, UK. “This is my 14th aurora on camera this year, which I find incredible considering I had never believed I could get anything from here a mere year ago!” [Spaceweather.com]

Some fascinating pics, as usual.

Straying From The Foundation, Ctd

It’s becoming all about the blowback, I think.

City Journal has a report on gender-affirming care and, in a twist I hadn’t thought of, illegal conversion therapy, as in, Are they the same?

Fenway Community Health Center in Boston, the largest provider of transgender medicine in New England and one of the leading institutions of its kind in the United States, was named a defendant in a lawsuit filed last month. The plaintiff, a gay man who goes by the alias Shape Shifter, argues that by approving him for hormones and surgeries, Fenway Health subjected him to “gay conversion” practices, in violation of his civil rights. Carlan v. Fenway Community Health Center is the first lawsuit in the United States to argue that “gender-affirming care” can be a form of anti-gay discrimination.

And the sad thing is that if the transgender advocates had followed standard democratic practice by submitting the entire issue for public debate, extending over several years, suits like this could have been avoided, and appropriate administrative and psychological procedures could have been developed and implemented to manage the difficult question of transgender, juvenile members of society.

No guarantees, of course.

And along with the big ticket items, such respectable folk as Sir Richard Dawkins and J. K. Rowling could have been spared the mud-slinging by the gullible left and independents, too much in a hurry to “protect” the transgender that I think we’ll find needed more advice, less surgery, and more patience, outraged at the very thought of having an actual debate over the question.

Well, let the meat-grinder get to work, now.

Belated Movie Reviews

Sheep are not harmless. Usually.

We like to sample foreign, unsung movies for our holiday movies. Sometimes, this leads to disaster, but sometimes, such as with the Finnish Rare Exports (2010), we have a rollicking good time.

Lamb (2021, Icelandic: Dýrið) falls midway between the two extremes.

Ingvar and Maria are a married couple, farming an isolated plot of land, whose children passed away, and their lack of offspring weighs on them.

Heavily.

So when a child appears in their sheep flock, they name her Ada and raise her as their own. Told in a spare, quiet style that I tend, accurately or not, to associate with European movies, it dances on the tightwire over the sea of vapidity, and mostly retains its balance; watchers will only scratch their heads two or three times as the pair, and a later addition of mysterious Pétur, brother to Ingvar, care for swiftly growing Ada.

And then, one day, Ada’s father shows up, and he has no patience for nonsense. He has such an abrupt manner that, oddly enough, when Maria discovers the results of the unnamed father’s return, I half expected her to dab blood under her eyes and assume the guise of Frigg, wife of Odin, before taking vengeance.

No such luck.

Not having any sort of Icelandic background, this was an interesting peek into the Icelandic psyche and mythic landscape, but it does take patience and curiosity. Good luck.

Quote Of The Day

It's an epitome
   of self-pity!

From CNN:

Indianapolis Colts owner Jim Irsay said in a newly released interview he was “prejudiced against” for being a “rich, White billionaire” when he was arrested for driving while intoxicated in 2014.

Irsay pled guilty later that year to one misdemeanor count of operating a vehicle while intoxicated but, in an HBO interview that aired on Tuesday, the 64-year-old cited his wealth and status as the reason for the arrest.

I am prejudiced against because I’m a rich, White billionaire,” Irsay said in an interview with Andrea Kremer on Real Sports with Bryant Gumbel.

What? Isn’t entitlement and self-pity traditional American rights?

Well, they are, actually, although we do tend to call them Manifest Destiny, which is morbidly amusing seeing as most Americans are the cast-off detritus of Western Europe.

I wonder how else Irsay will humiliate himself.

A Universal Fact

In a WaPo article concerning a proposed coal power plant replacement with an experimental nuclear unit in Kemmerer, Wyoming, I was struck by this political observation:

Nicole Anderson, 30, was motivated to open her own accounting firm downtown. She said most reservations about [Microsoft found Bill] Gates — long the subject of right-wing conspiracy theories stemming from his support of vaccines — are overshadowed by hope.

“I think people still think of him as a figment of your imagination,” Anderson said. But he’s put Kemmerer “on the map, which none of us ever saw happening.”

Of course, being a science groupie, I was tiredly outraged by the remark concerning vaccines. You look at the change in death antecedents following the introduction of a vaccine, and the case is generally closed. The most likely conclusion is that vaccines simply do work, and most are “safe” in the statistical sense, which is to say that, yes, I do actually know someone who suffered an attack of myocarditis following a Covid shot, so he’s probably one of the < .001% who suffered a negative, dangerous reaction to the vaccine.

That does not make the vaccine generally dangerous. The statistical definition of generally dangerous may be up for discussion, but < .001% is not generally dangerous. The vaccine in question is safe within the general definition.

But, to return to the point, every political movement is speckled with fallacies, misconceptions, and other detestable aspects that accompany being human. Politics is about acquisition of power in order to implement political philosophies; political philosophy, on the other hand, is an accretional theory about how humans, and human societies, both do work and should work.

Because political philosophies are mixtures of earnest theories of human behaviors and self-interested “theories” designed to carry their progenitors to power, evaluation of political philosophies must carefully differentiate between the two, marking as negative the latter while critically evaluating the former.

Because the former can easily be as wrong as the latter.

What am I saying? Every political philosophical aggregate will inevitably have ingredients, forcibly introduced by those of a ruthlessly ambitious nature, that are simply wrong. Keeping in mind the scientifically accepted findings of researchers of vaccines, those “suspicious” of vaccines are echoing the sentiments of those who are desperate to accrete power to their own ends, who talk through their hats in order to unite those inclined, through ignorance and suspicion, to disdain vaccines.

Meanwhile, transgender advocates, eager to be civil rights champions, bypass standard democratic values and procedures, quite potentially leading non-transgender down the irreversible path of surgery and, almost certainly, depression, in their hurried quest for, yes, say it, fame.

Rinse. Lather. Repeat.

That teaches me that, yes, the conservatives are fools for disdaining vaccines, but the Left have their revered feet of clay, too, and us Independents have our treasured ignorance of governing. None of us are anywhere near perfect, but for those who know they are ignorant.

Cheesiest Picture Ever

The company responsible for ChatGPT, OpenAI, fired its CEO, Sam Altman, over the weekend, reportedly over his desire to aggressively push AI in the marketplace, while the board of directors wished to move more cautiously. This morning, Microsoft is reported to have hired Altman to run their AI effort; Microsoft is reported to be OpenAI’s biggest backer.

I suspect we’re not seeing some inevitable historical current, but rather just another serpentine sign of greed.

ANYWAYS … the only real reason I’m posting this is that CNN added a picture of Altman, which struck me as being so ridiculously manipulative that it set my teeth on edge.

Ah, the picture of a man selflessly gazing towards a bright future of inanity for humanity for which he’ll sacrifice himself, now isn’t it? No doubt I sound bitter, but that would require the erasure of my dreams by his actions, and that has not happened; in fact, I’m simply waiting to be amazed by a humanity that has proven to be credulous about, well, what this morning I shall call a party trick, if I’m to believe the popular summaries of the technology involved.

That is certainly unfair to the AI researchers involved, and I duly apologize, but the only magic going on here is the immense amount of computer power being made available to the project. And, certainly, many will fairly proclaim it a boon to mankind as a sort of pre-digestive of whatever its data source has been fed to it. For many scientific and academic disciplines, the sheer amount of research published on a monthly basis really requires a mechanical and cheap way to organize new material for perusal by the humans involved.

But those efforts already existed prior to ChatGPT. I find it hard to get excited by the descriptions of ChatGPT. (I was rebuffed the first day it was available, and never returned to it. Not being an AI researcher myself, I do not feel abusive.)

Word Of The Day

Miraculin:

Miraculin is a basic glycoprotein that was extracted from the miracle fruit plant, a shrub that is native to West Africa (Synsepalum dulcificum or Richadella dulcifica). Miraculin itself is not sweet, but the human tongue, once exposed to miraculin, perceives ordinarily sour foods, such as citrus, as sweet for up to 2 h afterward. This small red berry has been used in West Africa to improve the taste of acidic foods. Since the miracle fruit itself has no distinct taste, this taste-modifying function of the fruit had been regarded as a miracle. The active substance, isolated by Kurihara, was named miraculin after the miracle fruit. [ScienceDirect compilation]

Noted in “Sweeteners: The bitter truth about low-calorie sugar substitutes,” David Cox, NewScientist (11 November 2023, paywall):

But perhaps we could one day get rid of sugar and its low-calorie mimics altogether, and still get a sweet hit. That is the promise of a range of sweet proteins found in the berries of various West African shrubs. These include brazzein, monellin and, the best known, miraculin, which comes from the [miracle] berry that made my lemon sweet.

Silly names, all of ’em.

Video Of The Day

I’ve long read references to the Mayan ball game, in which the ball can only contact the hips. Here, the BBC has a short clip covering a Mayan group that has recreated the game of their ancestors. Quite fun!

And I liked the body art as well.

In other news, for the last three weeks I’ve been dealing with an infection which appears to be defeated now. I hope to return to regular, though not prolific, posting.

Belated Movie Reviews

He said he was going to show you his etchings, didn’t he? So who makes etchings of animal entrails?

Beetlejuice (1988) is a lovely, amusing, middle of the road movie concerning a young, newly married couple whose car goes off a bridge into the creek below. Their following travails function to illuminate themes having to with poseurs vs authenticism, the limits of asking for assistance, and snakes.

Big, colorful snakes. And how even the dead can die.

It’s All In The Interpretation

I was a bit fascinated with the interpretation by Jennifer Rubin of WaPo of recent poll results contrasts with that of Erick Erickson, far right pundit. First, Rubin:

Consider the obsessive coverage of a single New York Times-Siena College poll a full year before the election (touting four-times indicted former president Donald Trump as leading in five of six swing states, although only one was outside the poll’s margin of error). The Times built its political coverage around it for days. Virtually every cable news show featured it. (Full disclosure: I am an MSNBC contributor.) Other outlets focused on it. Roundtables gathered to discuss it. The coverage assumed the poll to be gospel — accurate, productive, important — and then used it as evidence that Biden is toast. (A majority of national polls, by the way, show Biden tied with or slightly ahead of Trump.)

But consider how utterly meaningless this poll truly was. First, it’s a year from the election. Go back to 2011 and 2012, and you would see the same hysterical predictions, from the same sort of premature polling, anticipating then-President Barack Obama’s political demise. Second, many other polls, including a highly reputable Pennsylvania poll, show Biden doing quite well in swing states. (As others have pointed out, even a Republican poll had Biden tied in Nevada, not losing by 10 points).

The Times poll had obvious anomalies (e.g., showing Trump trailing by one point among younger voters; Trump winning 22 percent of Black voters; Biden leading in Wisconsin by 2 but trailing in Nevada by 11 points?). Those findings don’t appear in other polling. But to put that in proper context would have killed innumerable news cycles. (By contrast, when The Post came up with a national poll, clearly an outlier, it said so.)

It’s hard to argue with her points, really, and there’s more of them as well, pointing out the dubious track record of most polls.

Now, Erickson:

Democrats, for all their rhetoric about Donald Trump being a threat to democracy, do not really mean it, or they’d ditch Joe Biden tomorrow. The only Democrat who could beat him in 2020 — that was literally Biden’s ad campaign — is one of the few who might not be able to beat him in 2024.

If the economy were as good as Democrats say, Biden would be running away with it. But he’s tied with Trump, according to good pollsters. He has the benefit of incumbency, which is an advantage. He probably does have a greater than fifty percent chance of beating Trump. But if Trump really is a threat to democracy, Democrats should be acting like it, and they aren’t except on MSNBC performances.

Naturally, both commentators are trying to rally their supporters. In evaluation, I’m looking for the ratio of incoherency to facts and logic. Rubin, to the extent I know, in a general way, her data, appears to have a good grasp on what happened in 2022: Huge disappointment for the Republicans, misleading (sometimes deliberately) polling, as my long-term readers know, and, unquoted here but present in her article, an awareness that abortion is the pivotal issue. I think Democrats must work hard to field a candidate in every district throughout the nation.

Erickson, on the other hand, seems incoherent to me. “Democrats, for all their rhetoric about Donald Trump being a threat to democracy, do not really mean it, or they’d ditch Joe Biden tomorrow.” I don’t even know what that means. He doesn’t mention the abortion issue, because that’ll be a hot nerve for his readers and listeners, and then there’s the tendency of what passes for a conservative today to indulge in mendacity. He’s just convinced that today’s polls are definitive.

Add in that Rubin used to be a Republican, and I give her the edge.

How To Remain Deeply Unattractive

Ohio GOP legislators’ reaction to the passing of Issue 1, an amendment to the Ohio State Constitution safeguarding abortion rights, as noted by Ja’han Jones of MSNBC:

After Ohioans voted Tuesday to enshrine access to abortion care in their state constitution, more than a third of the Republican caucus in Ohio’s House of Representatives issued a joint statement essentially vowing to keep up their fight to restrict abortion.

The statement says:

Unlike the language of this proposal, we want to be very clear. The vague, intentionally deceptive language of Issue 1 does not clarify the issues of life, parental consent, informed consent, or viability including Partial Birth Abortion, but rather introduces more confusion. This initiative failed to mention a single, specific law. We will do everything in our power to prevent our laws from being removed based upon perception of intent. We were elected to protect the most vulnerable in our state, and we will continue that work.

To my eyes, it appears Ohio conservatives don’t know how to read a room. And I suspect Ohio seats held by the GOP, both at the local and federal levels, are going to be rated as More likely to flip at the next election. There was a number of ploys of dubious morality employed prior to the vote by various conservative organizations attacking the Amendment. Assiduous reporting on those and what may be in the offing may become a hand grenade in the face of this bunch of arrogant, posturing fools.