Elections have consequences, but sometimes they apply to those who really wish the election hadn’t happened. Remember how many prominent and mid-level Republicans protested the nomination of Donald Trump for the Presidency? It was really unprecedented, from Republicans who were willing to vote for anyone else, to now-former Republicans abandoning the Party.
But Trump, by a quirk of quantum mechanics, managed to win anyways, and riding his shirt tails was a rag-tag band of Republicans who managed to retain control of Congress, albeit by slimmer margins than the prior Congress.
Since then, as long time readers know, in my view it’s been chaos in both of those branches of Congress. And now another consequence must be alarming the Republican leadership. From Gallup:
These results are based on Gallup Daily tracking throughout May. Overall, 45% of U.S. adults self-identify as Democrats or say they are independents who lean Democratic, while 38% identify as Republicans or lean Republican.
It’s interesting, and perhaps depressing, for Democratic leaders that there is no increase in their percentage. I would have thought the increased political consciousness inspired by the clownish atmosphere in the current national leadership would have pushed a lot of independent voters into the liberal camp. Perhaps the Fox News effect is stronger than I’d like to think, or maybe liberals just come across poorly in the media. Certainly, their failure to vigorously defend the ACA is a blot on their reputation.
But as much as Trump is a national eyesore, the GOP leadership in Congress has had its share of unforced (and unadmitted to) errors, from the House passing of the AHCA to the Betsy DeVos and Jeff Sessions confirmations. Equal parts extremism and incompetence, this downtrend may signal that we’ve seen the top of this latest cycle of populism, and people may begin to appreciate that experts are valuable – and work in hard areas and sometimes make mistakes. I can hope.
So what happens on June 20th, when the last two open seats in the House of Representatives are filled through special elections? Beats me – deep red seats that are unexpectedly competitive. More importantly, what happens on the next election cycle? In the unlikely event that Trump remains President then, this drop off in conservative sympathies may indicate he’ll be facing a deeply hostile Congress.
But that only assumes these results hold up – or even worsen for the Republicans. Stay tuned and know hope.
