Montana’s First Congressional District Voting History
Data from Ballotpedia
The appointment of Representative Zinke to be Secretary of the Interior has left the sole Montana seat in the House of Representatives open. We can see that it’s been a safe Republican seat since 2000, and Ballotpedia states it has been in GOP hands since 1997. Not since 2000 has a race been in the single digits; the last was a 16 point difference.
And Donald Trump won by 21 points in The Big Sky State. But now? Hard to say. I’ve seen poll results ranging from Democrat Quist leading by 7 points (a dubious self-selecting online poll) to a Democratic poll showing Quist down by 6 points to an even more comfortable lead of 15 points for Republican Gianforte (end of last month, a lot has happened since). With a Libertarian also in the race, voters will have a third option if they’re thoroughly tired of the two major parties.
And in that respect, it’s an interesting dynamic. Quist of the Democrats isn’t a politician. He’s a folk singer. A gamble by the Democrats, I suspect, to get away from any negative connotations Montana voters may connect, rightly or not, with the Democrats. Gianforte of the Republicans is a rich entrepreneur, a figure iconic to the GOP, I suppose, who failed in a previous bid for the governor’s seat.
I suspect it’ll be a close race, with a GOP victory, but I could easily be wrong. Are you a Montana voter, looking for more information? Former Minnesota GOP member Syd Sweitzer has it for you here.
And what happens if the Democrat wins? We come another step closer to impeachment. President Trump’s recent actions with regards to the FBI are worthy of impeachment, as Andrew Sullivan notes in greater detail than I care to muster, but the GOP members in Congress are, by and large, in love with power. So long as they see Trump as a symbol of that power, they won’t move against him – in particular the House. Why? Because Trump’s base is their base, and it’s all about team politics – if you’re seen to betray the team, you will lose the support of the base, and you will lose that power.
But if Democrat Quist wins, now the dynamic begins to change. Trump’s base may be cracking. Not enough to release the wolves in the House, where impeachment begins, but if Trump begins to lose his luster of power in the eyes of the House, then a step has been taken.
But the power of team politics has been stronger – and more damaging to the Republic – than I had thought. This storm of idiocy in the White House should have resulted in Trump’s thorough kicking by the GOP held Congress. Instead, they are an inchoate mass, indulging in extremist legislation and tone-deaf actions.
A win by Quist would be a boot to their collective heads. And perhaps the start of the end of the extremist hold on the GOP, and the beginning of the necessary rebuilding of the GOP by the likes of Senator Lugar, the last of the respectable GOPers.
I don’t expect it, but we need to begin.
