The currents of politics in Iran continue to swirl deeply. Last year former President Ahmadinejad was advised by Supreme Leader Khamenei to not run for a third term as President. Now, in the wake of his former Vice President Hamid Baghaei registering to run, President Ahmadinejad has also registered – purely to boost his VP’s chances, he claims. Rohollah Faghihi has the story for AL Monitor:
On the heels of Baghaei’s announcement, various video clips were released by Baghaei, Ahmadinejad and the former president’s controversial friend and aide Esfandiar Rahim Mashaei, some of whose pronouncements have been interpreted as “deviant” by some religious conservatives. In one of the clips, Baghaei tells Ahmadinejad and Mashaei that “one of us must be sacrificed.” Based on this, it seems that Ahmadinejad is planning to pressure the conservative-dominated Guardian Council, which is tasked with vetting presidential candidates, to let Baghaei run. On April 12, after registering to run, Ahmadinejad and Baghaei both held a press conference in which Ahmadinejad said that his decision had been made in support of Baghaei, “I registered merely to support Baghaei and I will act according to the [supreme] leader’s advice. … I’ll be serving Mr. Baghaei with all my power.” The former president added, “Some people say that the [supreme leader’s] advice was meant to completely forbid [me from running], but what the leader said was just advice. … I am still committed to my moral promise.”
Conservatives and many analysts have been saying in recent months that Baghaei wouldn’t get approval from the Guardian Council. Baghaei, who has crossed many of the red lines in Iranian politics, was jailed for unannounced reasons for more than 200 days and he still has cases that are being reviewed by the judiciary. Therefore, Ahmadinejad’s candidacy might have been registered just to prevent Baghaei’s disqualification. However, the former president may try to stay in the race, putting more pressure on the Guardian Council, which would probably disqualify him for defying the supreme leader; such a decision could then provoke Ahmadinejad’s vocal political base. The likelihood of such a scenario caused conservative cleric Mohammad-Taghi Rahbar to voice his concern April 12 that Ahmadinejad’s candidacy could cause chaos in the country.
The Guardian Council vets candidates based on their religious orthodoxy, as I understand it, and for those who accept such a need, I suppose they may seem quite predictable – but, to me, it’s another way to stop personal and ideological enemies from attaining high office. While putatively an institution for stability, I suspect that it’s actually a source of instability, as arbitrary and politically motivated decisions will certain spread dissatisfaction among those who support disqualified candidates.
Keep an eye on the former President – and his supporters.
