Continuing the analysis of China’s ban on coal imports from North Korea, Yun Sun on 38 North notes that the official reason given by China, which was exceeding an United Nations’ quota on North Korean coal imports, seems to be misleading, and then plunges into speculation:
There are two possible explanations for China’s decision to impose such a radical measure on North Korea. First, two events occurred a week before the announcement of the ban that almost certainly aroused Chinese ire with Pyongyang: 1) North Korea’s test of a Pukguksong-2 intermediate-range ballistic missile on Feb 11; and 2) the assassination on February 13 of Kim Jong Un’s half-brother Kim Jong Nam, who had been under Chinese protection. Both events gave Beijing ample reasons to put more pressure on North Korea to rein in its provocative behavior.
Second, the Chinese may have wanted to send a conciliatory signal to Washington, given their concern over US-China relations under President Trump. Beijing has wanted to sweeten the pot with Trump in order to induce a friendlier US policy toward China and solidify a quid-pro-quo, transactional approach on key issues important to both sides. Since the Trump administration has identified North Korea as a key national security threat, it is reasonable to infer that China’s action on North Korean coal imports was aimed at heading off harsher US demands for stronger Chinese sanctions against North Korea. Considering the US-Chinese tensions that will form the backdrop for this week’s summit between Presidents Xi and Trump, Xi’s ability to show that it is punishing Pyongyang severely on coal imports could help to lower tensions with the United States and preempt US demands on North Korea that China cannot accept, such as cutting Chinese energy and food aid. China will not go so far as to trade North Korea with US for a positive China policy by Trump. In fact, it is hard to imagine what US can offer for such a trade. However, taking some heat off the potential demands by the US may well be China’s calculation.
I suppose China would prefer not to have a nuclear power angry next door, even if it’s much larger, so even though North Korea may be angry now, this is the lesser setting. But I’d love to be a bug on the wall in China’s leaders’ offices.
