The Iran nuclear deal (JCPOA) is causing chaos in the Iranian political scene as both sides, consisting of President Rouhani’s Reformists and the hard line conservatives, would like to use the JCPOA for their own purposes in the upcoming election – but are having troubles. Hashem Ali writes about it in AL Monitor:
Make no mistake about it: Rouhani is engulfed in a fierce battle that might see him become the first Iranian president since 1981 to not serve a second term. This is what his conservative foes are fighting for, yet their coalition is not delivering — despite the building of solid anti-government rhetoric, exploiting the setbacks of the JCPOA, highlighting the failures of Rouhani’s team since coming to office in 2013 and hitting him over his shaky relationship with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). The main reasons behind the conservatives’ failure include their lack of unity and the absence of strong candidates who could defeat the incumbent in the polls.
“While there is no doubt that Rouhani is under tremendous pressure, I don’t see his re-election in danger mainly because there is no serious contender yet,” Adnan Tabatabai, an Iran expert and the CEO of the Germany-based think tank Carpo, told Al-Monitor. Tabatabai added, “Rouhani’s mandate will certainly be weakened, and the complexities of the JCPOA implementation have called his foreign policies into question.”
Oddly enough, I didn’t think the GOP had any strong candidates to challenge Clinton back during the general primary – every candidate seemed fatally flawed. But certainly the Iranian situation differs from the American situation. But Hashem notes this is an opening for someone who’d been dismissed:
Until a few months ago — Sept. 25 to be precise — former President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was widely thought to be the main rival Rouhani would face in the May 2017 elections. He started campaigning across the country and was closing the gap, becoming a real threat to Rouhani’s ambitions. Then, in late September, Rouhani appeared to suddenly enjoy some respite when Ayatollah Khamenei publicly gave Ahmadinejad the “advice” not to participate in the elections. But Ahmadinejad does not appear to have given up.
“The former president still wants to run in the elections, despite the [supreme] leader’s advice,” a moderate conservative source told Al-Monitor on condition of anonymity. “He is still going around the country, meeting people, launching media attacks on the government. He is trying to impose himself as a de facto candidate.” The source said one reason Ayatollah Khamenei is unlikely to approve of Ahmadinejad’s candidacy is that the controversy accompanying the former president’s return could shake up internal stability.
And does Khamenei want a loose cannon in the MidEast again? Especially with an unpredictable President Trump meddling as well – it could be an explosive combination. Indeed, a more subtle analysis may be impossible with these two.
As noted previously, the JCPOA has not cured the Iranian economy, yet – and the conservatives hate it. President Rouhani faces an additional problem:
… he also needs to address the concerns and demands of his Reformist allies. Since taking office in 2013, Rouhani has rarely delivered on issues raised by his Reformist supporters, including the matter of the yearslong house arrests of former presidential candidates Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi. Other unfulfilled requests include those for a reduction in internet and social media restrictions and for a larger Reformist presence in the Cabinet.
As previously suggested in Al-Monitor, the Reformists have no alternative to Rouhani in the coming elections — but this does not mean that he can automatically count on everyone actually voting. Indeed, many Iranians, if not feeling content, might just decide to stay home rather than stand in long lines to cast a ballot for someone whose policies they do not trust.
That, too, sounds familiar.
