On Lawfare Stephanie Leutert interviews security analyst Alejandro Hope to discover the possible reasons behind a surge in murders in Mexico:
Hypothesis #1: Ongoing Cartel Fragmentation
Since 2007, the Mexican government has more aggressively targeted cartel leadership, effectively using the so-called kingpin approach to decapitate criminal groups. Former President Calderón killed or captured 25 of his 37 most wanted narcos and current President Peña Nieto has already “neutralized” 100 of his top 122. Such blows may weaken Mexico’s criminal groups, but they don’t mean less bloodshed. Often, it’s the opposite.
Each downed kingpin means a leadership succession, frequently characterized by power vacuums, internal struggles, and splinter groups. When Calderón took office in 2007, there were five recognized cartels. Today, if you take the Attorney General’s count, there are nine cartels and forty-three fragmented cells, or if you prefer to listen to Mexico’s chief criminal prosecutor, it’s two cartels and hundreds of splinter groups.
Either way, with each additional actor on the fractured criminal landscape, there is another set of armed criminals trying to enforce its rules over a slice of land. And there are the inevitable bloody clashes when those frontiers overlap.
In another section we learn Mexico supplies about half of the heroin used in the United States. While I find it difficult to justify the legalization of cocaine, since it’s far more destructive than marijuana, it would certainly be interesting to know – or at least model – the effect of such a legalization on the gangs of Mexico.
