ADMIN
Due to hand surgery, my commentary will be abbrev’d.
Trump As A Top
President Donald Trump may not be moving forward with his $1.8 billion lawsuit settlement fund, but Democrats are determined to force GOP lawmakers to answer for the issue anyway — repeatedly.
Even after sources indicated Monday that the Trump administration was abandoning its plans on the “anti-weaponization” fund, Democratic leaders were quick to indicate that they would still force votes to block the fund.
“If Trump and Republicans are truly abandoning this corrupt scheme, they should have zero problem banning it in law,” Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., said Monday. “This week, Senate Democrats will push legislation to ban this slush fund and ensure no president can ever do this again. Trump’s word is nowhere near enough.” [MS NOW]
Voters should find that interesting.
CLUE: MUSTARD
Keep an eye on all the arenas, apparently.
The Koch-aligned GOP super PAC Americans for Prosperity Action is putting $6.3 million into battleground Senate ads just a few weeks after warning the Republican Senate majority is “at risk.”
The ads — shared first with POLITICO — are focused heavily on gas prices and affordability, something the group has warned Democrats will take advantage of in November if Republicans don’t present solutions for voters.
The ad buys show that the group is worried about defending Republicans in some very red states. They’re advertising in Montana, which has barely been on the radar for most campaign analysts, as well as Iowa and Ohio, states that President Donald Trump won by double digits in 2024. The group is also running ads in Michigan, New Hampshire and North Carolina. [Politico]
I’ve noted Montana might be in play. I await adverts in … Idaho.
NEWS
- The 2 June Iowa primaries have yielded Trump-endorsee U. S. Rep Hinson (R) and Iowa House Rep Josh Turek (D). Thomas Laehn (L) is also on the ballot, which may be a problem for Hinson as libertarians often attract conservative votes. Notably, Trump-endorsed gubernatorial candidate Randy Feenstra lost the Republican nomination by less than a point. Long-time readers may remember Feenstra for successfully primarying Rep Steve King (R) in 2024, although given their On The Issues summations, that was shark-on-shark action. MS NOW is trying to make something of Feenstra losing, but I’m doubtful. We already know a Trump endorsement is a burden.
Anyways, Republican Hinson shouldn’t try to coast on Trump’s endorsement.
Finally, Turek and the Democrats outpolled Hinson and the Republicans, respectively. That may be irrelevant, but it may speak to enthusiasm, which can be a key ingredient in races.
- Michigan candidates have been winnowed down, through voluntary dropouts, to former Rep Mike Rogers (R) and Abdul El-Sayed, Mallory McMorrow, and Rep Haley Stevens, for the Democrats. Unknown pollster TIPP gives all three Democrats small leads over Rogers, with Stevens at 48% – 41% as best, and Stevens leading for the primary. That’s not congruent with other pollsters.
- Alaska has a conundrum: Sullivan.
In Alaska this election season, the biggest supporters of Dan Sullivan could be the biggest antagonists of Dan Sullivan.The field of contenders challenging Senator Dan S. Sullivan, a Republican who is up for re-election, has grown in recent days with a rather befuddling addition: Dan J. Sullivan, a former educator of no known relation, has entered the race. …[NYT]
Republicans may have a point:
The campaign arm of Senate Republicans, the National Republican Senatorial Committee, suggested that Dan J. Sullivan was a plant by Democrats intended to confuse voters and siphon support from Senator Sullivan, a former Marine who worked in the State Department under President George W. Bush.
Democrats vigorously assert a State overpopulation of persons named Dan Sullivan. Sad.
The 2 June Montana primaries have yielded winners US Attorney Kurt Alme (R) and inexperienced Alani Bankhead (D). Joining them is former UMontana President Seth Bodnar (I), considered a contender by some. He may split the left and independent vote, giving the election to Alme, or he may win. Bodnar’s On The Issues summation is to the right, but appears to be based on very little data.
Democratic primary voting doubled that of Republican primary voting, which may explain the concern of the Koch network, see way above.
- The 2 June New Jersey primaries have yielded nominees incumbent Senator Cory Booker (D), unchallenged, and Justin Murphy (R), who attracted only 33% of the Republican primary voters. That’s not a confidence builder.
- The 2 June New Mexico primaries have yielded nominees incumbent Senator Ben Ray Luján, with 85.7% of the Democratic vote, and Larry E. Marker (Write-in), with 100.0% of the Republican primary vote. The raw vote totals? 112,399 and 4,579, respectively. A lesson in appropriate measures.
- In what must be a bit of a shock for Ohio Republicans, highly respected Fox News Poll is giving former Senator Sherrod Brown (D) a relatively huge 53% – 45% lead over appointed incumbent Senator Husted (R) in Ohio. Brown has an even larger lead in the favorability ratings, 53-41. Maybe the paltry primary turnout observation at my earlier Ohio link is inaccurate?
- The 2 June South Dakota primary yielded incumbent Senator Mike Rounds (R) as the Republican nominee; Julian Beaudion (D) and Brian Bengs (I) had already qualified. While Senator Rounds only recorded 76.9% of the ballots in the primary, I don’t see him as being seriously challenged in November.
- In Alabama, reactions to The Alabama Poll are more interesting than the poll results:
A new poll has upset some Republican candidates heading into the final two weeks before the June 16 runoff. …In the U.S. Senate runoff, the poll listed former Navy SEAL Jared Hudson as the projected winner over U.S. Rep. Barry Moore (R-Enterprise), 48.7% to 39.2%, with 12.1% undecided — a significant departure from other polls.
The poll claims Hudson leads across most of the map and most demographics. …
“This is yet another bogus suppression poll, similar to the one published before the primary that also claimed Jay was trailing by double digits,” a release from [AG candidate] Mitchell’s campaign stated. “Alabama voters proved that wrong. Despite being outspent 2-to-1 in the weeks leading up to the primary, Jay finished only six points away from first place. Since then, he’s been endorsed by third-place candidate Pamela Casey, who carried 25% of the vote and commands a powerful grassroots following. Simple math and common sense make it clear—Jay Mitchell’s going to win.”
Sure, I’m not quoting a frustrated Senate candidate, instead a State AG candidate, but this is a hint of what happens to a Party following the Gingrichian diktat of win at all costs. It bleeds into intra-Party contests, causing fratricide & general chaos, rather than the smooth transfer of power.
And I see Jared Hudson is coming under attack:
At the Marshall County Republican meeting this past Tuesday evening, held at Wentzell’s Oyster House Restaurant in Guntersville, Alabama, I asked Senate candidate Jared Hudson a simple question: Why had he gone on the record opposing President Donald Trump’s position on the filibuster?
The answer was revealing—not because of what Hudson said, but because of what he avoided saying.
Rather than standing with Trump on one of the president’s most important legislative priorities, Hudson spent his entire response explaining why Trump is wrong on the issue. He opened by acknowledging that “the president makes an unbelievably great case as the executive branch on why we should nuke the filibuster.” But instead of supporting Trump’s position, he immediately pivoted, saying, “With that being said, the only conservative tool we have is to make sure that we end the silent filibuster.”
For Republican voters, that should raise an important question. If Trump is trying to advance a conservative agenda through the Senate, why would a Republican Senate candidate oppose one of the tools needed to make that happen? [Angela McClure, AL Politics]
Suggesting Hudson incompatibility with Trump is going to discourage Republican primary voters.
Next primary day is 9 June.
