The 2026 Senate Campaign: Updates

I CAN’T STOP WATCHING HIM FLOP

It’s all bad news for President Trump, no matter how he spins and snaps his bubble gum.

Source: Gallup.

As he flies his arrogant amateurism, “Only I can fix it” flag, the average American citizen becomes more and more stand-offish of Trump and his supporters. Then there’s the Quinnipiac University Poll:

More than two months after the U.S. launched an attack on Iran and with a jump in oil prices, one third of voters (33 percent) approve of the way President Donald Trump is handling the economy and 64 percent disapprove, the lowest approval on the economy Trump has received in either of his terms as president, according to a Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pea-ack) University national poll of registered voters released today. …

Critically,

Among independents, 70 percent disapprove of the way Trump is handling the economy, while 27 percent approve.

And,

When it comes to the way President Trump is handling his job overall, 34 percent of voters approve of the way he is handling his job as president, while 58 percent disapprove.

The best part about it? I bore easily.

BUT THIS ISN’T GOOD NEWS FOR GOP HOPES

WaPo reports on the last week of legislative, ah, activity:

President Donald Trump has repeatedly bent congressional Republicans to his will, pushing his proposals through meager resistance with the threat of mobilizing the Republican base against disloyal members of his party.

This week, GOP lawmakers in both chambers indicated that their patience with that strategy may be wearing thin.

A series of setbacks on Capitol Hill — on issues spanning the Iran war, a $1.8 billion “anti-weaponization” fund and the proposed White House ballroom — illustrated simmering tensions between GOP lawmakers and the president ahead of what could be bruising midterms in November.

But more just went by despite the punishment of Indiana:

The South Carolina Senate rejected a new congressional map Tuesday that Republicans hoped would eliminate the state’s only Democratic seat, a Black-majority district represented for more than three decades by Rep. James Clyburn.

The vote against the new map — which would have helped Republicans in their quest for a clean sweep of the state’s seven congressional districts this fall — was an unexpected rebuff of President Donald Trump, who had pushed for the redistricting effort in hopes of retaining his party’s slim majority in the U.S. House of Representatives past November.

The new map passed the state House last week. But a motion to end debate on the map failed in the state Senate on Tuesday after 12 Republicans joined their Democratic colleagues in voting against it. [MS NOW]

Republicans facing re-election may see another face in the mirror, the stereotypical MAGA voter who’s infuriated his favorite leader isn’t getting his way. A split in the Republican vote, or MAGA staying home, may hand rivals seats they mightn’t have otherwise won.

POLLSY, POLLSY

Yes, there’s been polls since the last update. No, I’m not reporting most of them because the pollsters are unknown or their last rating from FiveThirtyEight was godawful.

AND NOW FOR THE NEWS: YOUR POPCORN’S BEEN …

Oh, just follow this link for the old news about your popcorn.

  • Senator Markey (D) of Massachusetts, up for reelection, suggests Trump’s “slush fund,” aka the fund to give money to 6 January insurrectionists, is good reason for impeaching President Trump for corruption. Keep in mind that while Markey’s own reelection is virtually assured if he can just win the primary, which features Representative Moulton (D), this is the kind of suggestion that will echo in some independents’ ears, possibly helping other Democrats in their runs.
  • Alaska’s former Representative Mary Peltola (D) appears to be maintaining a slight lead over incumbent Senator Sullivan (R). Maybe.

    NEW RELEASE: Peltola continues to lead Sullivan in US Senate race

    Alaska Survey Research May 14-17, 2026
    N=1,401 Likely voters MOE=+3.0%
    Methodology: Text-to-online + ASR Survey Panel

    How about some actual numbers? 270 To Win claims Alaska Survey Research’s results say 48% – 44%.

  • In Maine political novice Graham Platner (D) is retaining a lead over incumbent Senator Collins (R) of 48% – 41% according to Pan Atlantic Research. It’s a ways to go, but if Platner can avoid tripping over his shoelaces he may pull off the upset.
  • And in news that has had pundits on the edge of their seats for a few weeks, the Texas GOP primary voters have decided scoundrel Texas AG Paxton (R) is better suited for the Senate than current Senator and loyal Party minion John Cornyn (R). By numbers as of this writing, the margin of Cornyn’s failure is greater than 25 points, but they’re not done counting, so don’t cite my numbers.

    This is what happens when the virtues of experience, loyalty, and competency are tossed out in favor of extremism, scandal, which is useful for blackmail, and credulity on the part of the voters.There must be some concern in the White House regarding Cornyn’s continuing loyalty, but maybe not: if they were concerned, Paxton would have gotten the boot, Cornyn the endorsement, and the Texas GOP primary voters would have been told to vote Cornyn and shut up. Will Cornyn be billing Trump for Trump’s lack of return loyalty?

    Time will tell.

SEATS THAT MAY EVAPORATE

Or who’s looking to flip a pancake: Texas (R), Michigan (D), Maine (R), Alaska (R), North Carolina (R).

Seems unlikely but could happen: Kansas (R), Iowa (R), Kentucky (R), Mississippi (R), Ohio (R), Nebraska (R), Montana (R). These last two would go to independent candidates Osborn and Bodnar, respectively.

And I believe next Tuesday is the next primary day.

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About Hue White

Former BBS operator; software engineer; cat lackey.

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