I’ve noticed there’s not much news on Ukraine these days, what with our provincial concerns taking priority, and I’ve been neglecting my primary source of Ukraine news due to a burned out computer, work, surgeries, and Spring popping.
But not former Representative, column writer, and MS NOW television host Joe Scarborough (R-FL, but now an independent, I believe), he’s keeping up.
And in perhaps the most surreal twist of this still-unfolding historical drama, it was Zelenskyy on social media yesterday who assured the frightened Russian defense minister that Kyiv would not attack Moscow during its annual World War II victory parades held today and tomorrow in the Russian capital.
Zelenskyy does, in fact, have many cards left to play against Putin.
And recently, through true grit and technological superiority, Ukrainians have drawn an inside straight while Trump is left dealing with a strait of another kind — one keeping U.S. troops in Iran far longer than the commander in chief anticipated.
Putin and Trump thought they would easily prevail in quick wars against overmatched opponents. What they didn’t count on was a technological revolution in asymmetric warfare that has radically shifted power dynamics on the global stage — and left Putin’s dream of military success on the ash heap of history.
It’s all about evolutionary pressures, baby. Place a species or a society under harsh, existential pressure, and it’s evolve to survive that pressure, or die. Too much pressure and it dies; too little, and it survives with no changes. But in a specific range, enough change can occur, and the speed at which species can change sometimes surprises evolutionary biologists; societies can often change even faster.
The United States is not under existential threat from Iran, and so the speed and clarity of evolutionary change doesn’t happen. Oh, it changes – lessons of static technology leading to disaster abound throughout history. Society, in its military and other sectors, can change. But the power structures of an unthreatened society tend to freeze societies in their successful forms, right up until they’re not successful anymore, and sometimes beyond.
Iran sees itself under existential threat, or more properly its government does, and it’s burdened with a self-perception of being a Great Power, and has been so burdened for centuries. Therefore, it’s been on the lookout for military advances which may not have been adopted, yet, by the United States.
And the Ukraine is also under existential threat of a very immediate sort, and, having been part of the Soviet Union, does not want to be part of Russia, as that result in disaster for the Ukrainian people. But Russia? Well, they seem to be driving themselves towards an existential crisis; such are the results of arrogant leaders, like President Putin.
