[Reposting due to a date of February 1 being observed. Apologies to those who’ve seen this, which was published Monday.]
But Before We Begin
Yes, the war, which I’ll call Trump’s War, will affect the elections to the Senate scheduled for November, but its effects will depend on the temperament of incumbents’ and challengers’ constituents, current or potential, and how they respond to a President dragging us into a war which is costing the precious lives of Iranians, innocent and not, American service people, the lives of Arabian allies, along with munitions which we may actually need more elsewhere, unlikely as most of think that might be. More thoughts on Trump’s War here.
Those responses will be part of this thread, in bundles, as I happen across them. I’m still a working dude.
Last time we were here
In election news is word of certain Republican groups urging the President to declare an emergency and nationalize the voting apparatus. Are they convinced that the courts would NOT tell them to stick it in their ear? Do they really think that the protests might turn violent, including from heavily armed Republicans, if this pack of extremists starts trying to deprive Americans of voting rights? If they’re so concerned about the November elections that they want to try the tactics of fascist losers, I have an impertinent question: Why don’t they try governing wisely, instead?
Yes, yes, my own blog says it’s a lot harder to do than to say, especially for a Party weighed down with incorrect or inapplicable tenets, obdurate in refusing to admit to failures, and apparently unappreciative of the wisdom of H. L. Mencken. Wise people learn from their mistakes; watching the President fulfill his nickname of The Mendacity Machine in order to cover up his blunders, and then such folks as Rep Chip Roy (R-TX) praise him for it, really brings home the potential of a Party-capsizing ass-whuppin’ next November, even if I think the Democrats should be alarmed as well.
The Senate News Slowdown
- The President sucks the air out of the electoral space. Wondering about the lack of news on this thread? The President’s antics tend to overshadow all else. Indeed, he’s now even resorting to what appears to be an unjustified, and possibly illegally declared, war in order to distract the public from his many failures and transgressions. In my opinion. Someone, and I’m looking at VP Vance now, needs to appropriate the President’s The Apprentice signature line and throw it back in his face: You’re Fired! As I’ve discussed before, though, the first hurdle a Cabinet candidate must clear in the Trump era is that they’re too much of a weepy fourth-rater to actually vote to remove the President under the 25th Amendment. (The second is that they have to look like a Cabinet Secretary, i.e., be straight out of central casting.) Maybe you get a pass, Vance.
- No primaries have taken place. And very few polls.
- Is there too much money in politics?
Nearly $100 million has been spent on campaign advertising across the Republican and Democratic Senate primaries [in Texas], including at least $59 million spent by [incumbent Senator] Cornyn and political action committees supporting him, according to AdImpact. The Republican primary is widely expected to go to a runoff. [MS NOW]
Uh, yes, there is. I think my eyes are watering.
- Endorse or not to endorse, can I do both? It’s also not clear if President Trump has actually endorsed all three GOP candidates for the Texas Senate seat – or none. I apologize if I had it wrong earlier, but Trump is being ambiguous.
- The enduring mystery of Georgia. The previous Senate races in Georgia featured the Rev Raphael Warnock (D) defeating former NFL and college football star Herschel Walker (R) by less than a point in 2022; and, in 2020, David Ossoff (D) defeating incumbent Senator Perdue (R) by 1.2 points. Now Senator Ossoff is facing his first reelection. Georgia is considered to lean Republican, with Republicans holding the trifecta.Where are the Republican heavy hitters I’m expecting to challenge a Senator considered vulnerable?I’m not forgetting or even dissing the two Republican Representatives in the primary, Mike Collins[1] and Earl Carter[2], but they are both so far to the right that they’re unlikely to attract the votes of independents.
Where’s the popular Governor Kemp (R-GA) in all this mess? He’s term-limited in his current job, so he’d have the time, but he’s turned down the opportunity, and is in fact backing, of all candidates, former football coach Derek Dooley, a man who strikes me as a cipher, a man who thinks he sees this Senate race as an opportunity to pick up another trophy, at least so far, rather than do the serious work of governing. Perhaps Kemp is testing the waters for being a quiet power behind the scenes, rather than taking on the grind of an everyday job like Senator.
So the ongoing mystery is Where’s the serious Republican candidate tailored to defeat Senator Ossoff? Are the Republicans still caught in the trap of The more extreme, the more qualified? Sure, Collins and Carter hold high elective office, but not state-wide offices, meaning their districts may hold enough far-right voters for them to win; or, a point not made enough, is Would they lose in their districts if Georgia were to switch to ranked-choice voting, a system friendly to moderates? In any case, neither is a proven candidate in a State that has been slowly moving towards the Democrats.
Is the Georgia GOP going the way of the New Mexico GOP, undisciplined, incompetent, and, even, repellent? Or is Collins or Carter a hidden powerhouse that will appeal to independents?
- A University of New Hampshire (UNH) poll in Maine suggests political newcomer Graham Platner (D-ME) holds a lead of 64%-26% over Governor Mills (D-ME) in the Democratic primary for the Maine Senate seat. When I say this seems unlikely, it also means I am not a resident of Maine, so maybe Mainers are sick and tired of old-age politics. Mills is 78 years old.
- In Massachusetts two University of New Hampshire (UNH) polls (here and here) suggest incumbent Senator Markey (D) has comfortable leads over Rep. Seth Moulton (D) and John Deaton (R).
- For New Mexico, Ballotpedia is now stating
There are no candidates on the ballot in the Republican primary at this time.
It lists Benjamin Luna as withdrawn or disqualified. Give the Democrats their first November victory.
- Right here in Minnesota I’ve noticed attack ads targeting Rep. Angie Craig (D-MN), accusing her of voting for funding ICE, an understandably touchy topic. True? False? Out of proper context? I failed to notice the funder of the ads, so I haven’t really a guess as to whether this is one of her primary competitors, or Republicans trying to manipulate the race, thinking Lt. Governor Peggy Flanagan, the other credible candidate, might be easier to defeat.
- Primaries for North Carolina and Texas are scheduled for March 3rd.
1 
Rep Collins’ On The Issues summary chart is to the right, and indicates the Representative is very far right. I must say, though, that Rep Collins does look like a Senator (follow the link for his picture), for what that may be worth. To the President? Quite a lot. Will he win the President’s endorsement? Still to be seen.
2 
Rep Carter’s On The Issues summary chart is to the right, and indicates the Representative is very far right. I regret I cannot say Rep Carter looks like a Senator, and for that reason he may not win the President’s endorsement. Oh, yes, I’m quite serious.
