Polls, Polls, Polls
If my reader looks for polls, my source this season is 270 To Win.
Systemically Speaking
As Trump’s War continues, Iran refuses to collapse, casualties tragically add up on both sides, other countries become involved, our shortage of munitions becomes more prominent, and other negative news comes out, those Republican Senators who’ve thrust themselves forward put themselves more and more at risk. That said, there’s not many out there doing so; Moody, Risch, and other names are exceedingly quiet, and can be so because the Senate hasn’t done much under Senator Thune.
But this is definitely a risk because all the Republican Senators are tied, strongly or weakly, to this madman of a President. Fortunately for the Senators, the House is responsible for beginning impeachment proceedings, so they cannot be blamed for the failure to start them. That’s heaped quite messily all over Speaker Johnson (R-LA).
And As Time Passes
Here’s the last time the clock ticked. Funny story there – that last one was written over last weekend, when we changed over to March, but WordPress dated it as February 1. And the same thing happened, oh, two years ago? Four years ago?
- The Maine Senate race becomes more and more interesting as Graham Platner (D-ME) gains prominence – and endorsements:
Sen. Ruben Gallego [(D)] of Arizona — who, like Platner, is a Marine combat veteran — said he is backing Platner because he believes he is more electable than the sitting Democratic governor.
“I think right now what people need and want is authenticity and a certain level of populism that they’re not going to get from Gov. Mills and they’re certainly not going to get from Collins,” Gallego said. “This is the candidate that can win.” …
Gallego, who won a Senate seat in the swing state of Arizona in 2024 and is a potential Democratic presidential candidate in 2028, joins democratic socialist Bernie Sanders (I-Vermont) in backing the insurgent political newcomer. [WaPo]
Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) has endorsed Governor Mills (D-ME). I get the feeling the youngsters are beginning to eject the oldsters, nation-wide. The Maine primary is June 9, 2026.
- Senator Gallego (D-AZ) has also endorsed (above link) Rep Angie Craig (D-MN) for the open Senate seat in Minnesota and Rep Haley Stevens (D-MI) for the open Senate seat in Michigan.
- The March 3rd primaries in North Carolina have yielded the expected result in the Senate primary races: former Gov. Cooper (D-NC) and former RNC Chairman Michael Whatley (R-NC) will face off in the general election. However, the numbers have surprised me, with Cooper effectively a unanimous victor with 96% of the Democratic primary vote and 758,743 votes (as of this writing, counting continues); Whatley, while crushing his challengers, managed only 64.6% of the Republican primary vote and 403,053 votes total. In fact, the total number of voters in the Republican primary is less than that for Gov. Cooper.
Is this significant? It’s a mugs game to attempt forecasting general election results from primary results, but it’s worth a gander. While Republicans can be a bitterly fractious lot in many parts of the country, I’ve noticed that doesn’t seem to hold true in North Carolina. But can they find the necessary dormant voters and persuade them to vote Republican in November? That’s a far more difficult question to answer.
- The March 3rd Senate primaries in Texas were strongly contested as the tea leaves were ambiguous.The Democrats have selected Texas House of Representatives member James Talarico (D-TX), who notably defeated Rep Jasmine Crockett (D-TX) 53.2%-45.5%, 1,103,371 votes to 943,168 (votes are still being counted as of this writing; the balance went to Ahmad Hassan). Call it more than 2 million votes.
The Republican primary is going to a runoff, as none of the candidates reached the 50% mark; the primary had 1.5 million votes. Those promoted are incumbent Senator Cornyn (R-TX), with 42.5% of the vote, and Texas AG Ken Paxton (R-TX) with 40.8% as of this writing; counting continues. Rep Wesley Hunt (R-TX) is out, as he has only 13% of the vote, but presumably that 13% will select the winner of the primary in the runoff.
Hunt has yet to endorse Cornyn or Paxton, but that will presumably occur after each of the two contacts him to ask for his endorsement. I don’t know if Hunt is looking for anything. However, this paragraph from his campaign site may be telling:
Wesley has served Texas’ 38th Congressional District in Congress since 2023 and has been a fearless America First Fighter who was the first in the nation to endorse President Trump.
My bold.
Senator Cornyn claims to have voted with President Trump the vast majority of the opportunities (I regret the loss of FiveThirtyEight, which kept track of the voting records of Members of Congress and how they correlated with President Trump during his first term). That’s his claim to being far-right.
AG Paxton filed the notorious pro-Trump lawsuit Texas v. Pennsylvania, which asserted that Pennsylvania’s Electoral College votes were invalid because its voting methods were – allegedly – invalid. The suit was not heard due to lack of standing, with Justice Alito dissenting. That’s Paxton’s claim on the President.
Given the affinity of President Trump for corrupt individuals, I suspect Rep Hunt will endorse AG Paxton on Trump’s advice, as Paxton appears to be one of the most corrupt politicians in Texas. How will this play with Hunt’s supporters? Well, they didn’t vote for either of the promoted candidates on first chance; will they vote for the corrupt AG on a second try, or the guy who has been around since 2002? Stay home and withhold their vote in protest at the youngster, Hunt, not being promoted?
Or will they even look at Democrat Talarico?
- The University of North Florida has released a poll indicating incumbent Senator Moody (R-FL) dominating her Democratic challengers.
And that’s it for now. Time for a break. Like, going back to work as a good working dude.
