H. L. Mencken once wrote,
For every complex problem there is an answer that is clear, simple, and wrong.
Which came to mind when this Tweet was thrown in my face:
In case this disappears …
Previous administrations have similarly invited increased beef imports with the same expectation that increasing imports would lower consumer beef prices. In practice consumer beef prices were not reduced but instead, increased imports correlated with the shrinking of the U.S. cattle herd, the exodus of U.S. cattle farmers and ranchers, and higher consumer beef prices.
What is everyone missing? The cost of delivering beef, from birth to table, has limited flexibility. If the farmer or rancher feels the accompanying risk may result in bankruptcy rather than profit, they’ll liquidate their herds. There’s Mencken’s complexity, and why the simple answer is wrong.
And that leads smaller American herds and higher beef prices.
Sometimes the lever you’re grabbing blindly will break your fingers.
