I don’t know if the numbers are true, but this can be disturbing:
The AI bubble will pop, and take the economy down with it.
— LisaLisa (@lisalisa42.bsky.social) 2025-12-27T05:13:09.930Z
Which makes the numbers for the Trump economy, as we label this composite and heterogenuous effort, suspect and opaque. But is it true?
Michelle Singletary tangentially confirms:
Nvidia reached its lofty perchas millions of Americans face a cutoff of their Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) benefits because of the federal shutdown, fewer workers have pension plans, Social Security is facing a severe shortfall, and health insurance has become financially unsustainable for many families.
Will this latest tech gusher give rise to a lasting era of AI dominance?
Big Tech’s spending spree on AI is helping prop up GDP growth — even as many AI ventures remain unprofitable. If this boom fizzles, economists warn, the entire economy would be hit. [WaPo]
And we do have some numbers:
Google chief financial officer Anat Ashkenazi said on an earnings call [in late October] that the company would spend between $91 billion and $93 billion this year on AI, an increase from its previous estimate of $85 billion.
Meta said its AI spending would be at the high end of its previous estimate of $66 billion to $72 billion and “notably larger” next year, in commentary released with its earnings report Wednesday. Microsoft said in its own report that it also expects its AI spending to grow in 2026, increasing from its anticipated outlay of $80 billion this year. [WaPo]
What does that mean? I mean, besides the suspicion that companies are ludicrously rich?
Recent investments in AI data centers and business spending on AI software dwarf previous tech booms such as the initial investment in internet infrastructure. By translating into more business for not just the tech sector, but also construction, trucking and energy firms, AI investment has delivered an economic shot in the arm that has helped boost U.S. economic growth despite flagging consumer spending and a softening labor market.
So if Internet society has a net rejection of generative AI, the crash could be deafening, terrifying for those working in that industry from junior coder to CEO & Chairman, and truly stir the political operatives on the right.
However, for those not falling into any of these classes, such a crash may be more symbolic than tangible, as the intro of generative AI seems segregated from the rest of the economy, or so is my impression.
The future remains fascinating.
