It was a very fast trade war.
Donald Trump assured Friday that his promise of 25 percent tariffs on goods from Canada and Mexico was ironclad. When asked if the countries could do anything to prevent them, Trump said: “No. Nothing. Not right now, no.” He said it was not a negotiating tool. “We’re not looking for a concession,” he added.
It turns out that wasn’t true. Just three days later, Trump paused the tariffs on both countries for 30 days, citing concessions they had made.
He did so as his tariffs — taxes on imported goods that are generally passed along to consumers — threatened to exacerbate inflation and spooked the stock market. Trump had repeatedly suggested before the deals that Americans should be prepared for potential economic “pain.” [WaPo]
President Trump’s strategy is out of focus.
His tariffs against China, on the other hand, are still in place.
I, just like everyone else, suspect that his entire tariffs gig is mostly just a head feint, an attempt to gain leverage over lesser opponents. China, whatever you may think of them, is certainly several steps up from Mexico and Canada, and they are both prideful and ambitious. As one of the very few surviving Communist nations, they are also conscious of their precarious situation, and that their reactions will be viewed by unaligned nations, such as those in Africa. A misstep could be fatal to those ambitions; a proper response may reassure potential allies.
And President Trump only seems to attract disreputable figures such as Putin, Orban, and others of that ilk.
And how much did Trump decide to settle for what appears to be achievements, but are not really? Author Aaron Blake quotes a number of concessions made by Canada, and then notes:
The first thing to note is that the first two aren’t really new. Canada had already announced the $1.3 billion border plan in December. Part of that plan was proposing the joint strike force.
Canada also said in December that it already had 8,500 personnel on the border. (Which appears to be why Trudeau said these people “are and will be” on the border — the vast majority are already there.)
It’s clear that both moves were done with potential future tariffs in mind; Trump has been threatening them, and Canada has been fearing them for many months. But these things were clearly already on the table when Trump made his specific threat.
That means the actually new things that came after Trump’s threat, apparently, are the fentanyl czar, labeling cartels terrorists, the $200 million and 24/7 eyes on the border.
We may not see much in the way of tariffs, because President Trump likes easy, painless wins. He may back down from China in the next month or so, if they demonstrate obduracy.
Musk’s absurd antics are pissing off folks already. Add in inflation from tariffs and Trump could swiftly find himself in trouble. Right now the GOPers in Congress are, for the most part, obedient, but if they see their leader in trouble, they may become the dogs of war. If they tire of the stress of entertaining him, they could kick him out.
It sounds absurd, but I do think it’s possible.
