Soon to be former leader of Senate Republicans and generally honor-free person Senator Mitch McConnell (R-KY), reportedly planning to yield his position as leader to Senator Thune (R-SD) sometime around Inauguration Day, and then retire at the end of his term in January of ’27, is the subject of a Steve Benen dream:
It was a notable brushback pitch from a key GOP official, but it was also part of a recent pattern: McConnell has thrown a lot of these pitches at Trump and his team lately.
- In an interview with the Financial Times, published last week, McConnell warned about the dangers of isolationism, which he seemed to tie directly to his party’s incoming president. “We’re in a very, very dangerous world right now, reminiscent of before World War II,” the senator said, adding, “Even the slogan is the same. ‘America First’ — that was what they said in the ’30s.”
And etc. – Warnings about the RFK, Jr nomination, isolationism, Gaetz, and other nominations and positions of Mr Trump’s, which Senator McConnell finds distasteful – or worse.
Benen’s dream? That Senator McConnell successfully leads the GOP opposition to Mr Trump.
Will it happen? I doubt it. Senator McConnell has had such a zealous allegiance to the GOP that he’s broken Senate norms and rules and indulged in brazen lies in service of this dubious allegiance.
However, with retirement in sight and a Senate GOP that is, honestly, not what McConnell has led for all these years, he may feel free to be stubborn.
And if, despite all of his flaws, his inability to pass real legislation, to be barely capable of simply approving judge nominations with minimal oversight, he still considers himself a brassy, loud American, there’s always an option that would positively shock the political world.
He could cancel his registration in the GOP and become an independent. Senator McConnell (I-KY).
That is actually interesting. He might still caucus with the GOP – or he might not.. Republicans might no longer count on his vote on matters legislative or even judicial.
Currently, if you just count Senate election results, in the next Congress Republicans hold 53 seats, Democrats 45 seats, and two seats will be held by independents who caucus with the Democrats, so it’s 53-47. But don’t jump to conclusions.
Senator Vance (R-OH) must resign his seat in the Senate to become Vice President, making it 52-47.
Then there’s Senator Rubio (R-FL). Mr Trump has announced the Senator is his nominee for Secretary of State. Now, nothing is official until Mr Trump is sworn in, so I figure there’s a 70% chance that Rubio will be the nominee. And if he is and the Senate confirms one of their own, as seems likely, forcing his resignation?
51-47.
Now, what if Senator McConnell becomes I-KY? Yes, 50-47, while closer, is more or less unimportant so long as McConnell votes with the GOP caucus. But if he doesn’t on certain matters? 50-48.
And then there’s the matter of Senator … Murkowski (R-AK). She has been making noises of disillusionment with her Party. If she, too, took I-AK status, and announced limited cooperation with the Democrats, then … 49-49.
Now, it’s true that the Democrats would be short one vote for taking control of the chamber, as then Vice President Vance would break ties in the chamber, and, depending on the views of soon-to-be Majority Leader Senator Thune, they might not even want the majority. And then the special elections for the seats of Rubio and Vance will restore the Republican’s margin – but those will be a couple of months out.
A meditative Republican might note the Democrats have a definite advantage in special elections over the last few years. That Republican might consider those special elections to be not skirmishes, but flat out wars. Maybe our Republican might only consider that Democrats are inclined to blame anyone but themselves, and even when the latter is achieved, it’s always some other wing of the Democrats.
Meanwhile, Senator Collins (R-ME), another traditionalist, will be feeling the pressure of a GOP made up of aliens, from her perspective – and also, on the other hand, feeling pressure from her constituents in famously hard-headed Maine, who might prefer to see their many-termed Senator, who is already reported to be planning for another Senate run, be an independent rather than caucus with the businessmen and unapologetic extremists who are coming to dominate the GOP conference.
Potentially interesting times. I don’t actually expect any of this to occur.
But it could.
