Here we are on the Saturday before Election Day, 2024, and it appears the pollsters’ produce is near exhaustion. Yesterday was quite a cloudburst, but today it’s a poll from Cygnal (2.1), and three other pollsters of which I have no recent memory, and FiveThiryEight has no knowledge. Their results soothing to the conservatives’ turn of mind; whether they are also accurate will be discovered in a matter of days.
Evaluation of polls is the question paramount for folks like me and you, my reader, a reader who, if representative of the contemporary American electorate, is not knowledgeable of the dark undercurrents of the game of politics these days. I have no great or intimate knowledge myself, but I am taking the time to analyze polls and pollsters, based off the hard work of FiveThirtyEight and a few others, principally based on Daily Kos, constructing, as is my habit, stories based on my impression of the patterns associated with each pollster, flavored by the human motivations inevitable in human-driven enterprises: desires for prosperity, excellence, the quick buck. A pollster’s role will depend on the humans implementing it, and interpretation of their results, based in a domain where baselines are unknown but may possibly be inferred from more than one result, or not, makes the analysis a challenge.
For some, these results are for idle knowledge, such as the general, interested citizen curious as to the state of the race; for others, responsible for facets of a candidate’s race, interpretation becomes a key element in discovering a winning strategy.
It’s been a lot of work. Some nights, my gorge rose, as old-timers might say, not only from sheer volume, but the mendacity and deceit that seemed implicit in certain results. Other nights, it was a fascinating exercise.
Now, to the nitty-gritty.
Progressives are excited and confident, almost overly so. Still, the blunder of the Republicans implicit in Dobbs justifies the progressives’ confidence in my view; the special elections’ results since Dobbs, and the Republican candidates’ continual stumbles over the issue clarifies and confirms this conclusion.
Republicans and other conservative pundits have found themselves splitting their time between attacking Democrats (see here and here) and reproaching their fellows (see here and here). It’s not a good look, especially as it’s on topics that are not subtle conundrums, but are rather obvious. The fact that folks such as Erick Erickson have to spend time reproaching his allies is a pointer to how much trouble conservatives are in, even as Erickson crows that Harris has given up, and then six days later blithely says either candidate can win.
Me? I’m an independent whose political experience consists of watching how political campaigns play out. Never ran nor been involved. Just so’s we understand each other.
The Presidency
I expect VP Harris to win, and, while Mr Trump and his allies may bellow in outrage and claim they’ve been cheated, it won’t be close. Along with Dobbs, for which Trump has alternately plausibly claimed credit and implausibly sought to disassociate himself, Trump has revealed misogyny and patronization, mendacity and arrogance, and poor choices in associates, from employees to billionaires trying to protect their fortunes at the expense of environment and justice. Simultaneously, former associates, both private employees and public principal officers of the Trump Administration, have entreated the public to not vote for Mr. Trump: Chiefs of Staff, military leaders of various positions, and Cabinet ministers of various responsibilities.
I terminate the above lists not for want of material, but because my fingers tire.
The House of Representatives
I’ve been saying it since Dobbs was handed down, and there’s little reason to change now: I expect a forty seat pickup by Democrats. Some of it is the outrage over Dobbs, with some of it being redistricting added in. For example, Wisconsin’s Republican gerrymandered districts for House are going away with this election, and I expect the Republican advantage of 6-2 in representation to the House at the beginning of the current Congress (one Republican has since resigned and not been replaced) to become a 5-3 Democratic advantage, based on Dobbs distress and demographics.
Similar changes will hit other States as well.
The Senate
This is the subject of this thread. 34 seats in contention, including a special election Nebraska in which appointed Senator Ricketts (R-NE) defends against Prescott Love, Jr (D-NE). Which seats are likely to change hands or are being emptied due to death or retirement?
- Senator Manchin’s (D, then I-WV) seat is open by retirement. While polling in West Virginia seems non-existent, it is widely agreed among the punditry that Governor Jim Justice (R, then D, then R -WV) will be the victor over former Mayor Glenn Elliott (D-WV).
- Ohio’s Senator Brown (D-OH) has been in a close race with Bernie Moreno (R-OH). I think Brown will win, but this will be a close one.
- In Nebraska, Senator Fischer’s (R-NE) travails in the polls have been the surprise story of the season. Fischer is a far-right extremist, while challenger Dan Osborn (I-NE) is a centrist. Nebraskans reportedly pride themselves on their independence, and the polls have been close, with the two candidates alternating in the lead position. The Dobbs issue clearly favors Osborn, so if there’s going to be a big upset this season, Nebraska is my candidate for that.
- Montana’s Senator Tester (D-MT) may be the most vulnerable Democrat seeking reelection in the Senate this cycle, not because of weakness on his part, but because of the nature of Montana. Will Dobbs apply here? His opponent is Tim Sheehy (R-MT); will Sheehy’s peccadilloes appeal to Montanans, or will they repel them? Polling has suggested both lead, but the quality pollsters tend to favor Tester.
- Texas Senator Ted Cruz (R-TX) never wins big, principally because people don’t like him. He was last seen denying that Dobbs is an important issue, which will only convince undecided voters that the Senator is out of touch, and that is not a successful campaign tactic. His opponent, Rep Allred (D-TX), is pushing hard for a promotion to the Senate.
- The Senate seat in Michigan is open due to the imminent retirement of Democrat Senator Stabenow (D-MI). So far, it appears Rep Slotkin (D-MI) leads former Rep Rogers (R-MI) in the race for that seat. I expect Slotkin to secure the seat again for the Democrats, but it may be close.
- Florida Senator Scott (R-FL) continues to battle former Rep Mucarsel-Powell (D-FL), but polls never get them closer than two points apart, with Scott in the lead. I think there’s a chance that the Democrat can pull the upset, but it’s not as likely as I’d like to see, given the Senator’s grasping, grating personality.
- Wisconsin’s Senator Baldwin (D-WI) has been battling challenger Eric Hovde (R-WI?) all season long, and not fallen behind. Recently, her lead seems increasing. That lead remains small, but I think it’s insurmountable.
- Ditto with Nevada’s Senator Rosen (D-NV) and challenger Sam Brown (R-NV).
- Ditto with Pennsylvania’s Senator Casey (D-PA) and challenger David McCormick (R-PA?).
- Can Missouri’s Senator Hawley (R-MO) be upset? I hadn’t thought so, but then he stepped into a debate and reportedly was flattened. Maybe there’s a slight chance? That’d be the dark horse victory of the season.
- Senator Sinema’s (D, then I -AZ) Arizona seat is open by retirement, but I expect Rep Gallego (D-AZ) to easily win it, as Lake is deeply unpopular in Arizona.
- Senator Menendez’s (D, then I -NJ) New Jersey seat is open by retirement, forced by scandal, but I expect Rep Kim (D-NJ) to easily win it, because this is New Jersey.
- Senator Cardin’s (D-MD) Maryland seat is open by retirement, but I expect Angela Alsobrooks (D-MD) to easily beat former Governor Hogan (R-MD), because this is Maryland.
- Senator Feinstein’s (D-CA) California seat is open due to her death, but Rep Schiff, who won the jungle primary, is poised to crush Republican and MLB great Steve Garvey (R-CA). Because this is California.
- Senator Braun’s (R-IN) Indiana seat is open due to him seeking the Indiana governor’s position, and I expect Rep Banks (R-IN) to easily win it. And, yet, there have been virtually no polls; Banks, as an extremist in the era of Dobbs backlash, may sport unexpected weaknesses; and Braun himself, another extremist, has reportedly seen his lead shrink drastically in private polls. There’s just no information to work off of, so I don’t have any expectations of an upset. But might there be? That’d be another dark horse victory.
And that’s about it. Am I wrong? Right? If you don’t care to write and tell me, you can wait for Election night and see how the counts turn out.
