It’s been obvious since the moment the Dobbs (2022) decision was handed down by SCOTUS that the loss of the Constitutional right created in Roe vs. Wade (1973), and overturned by Dobbs, would be the key issue in the 2024 campaigns. This assertion has been confirmed implicitly by a host of special election victories, many unexpected, by the Democrats since the decision, even losses have been far closer than expected, and, explicitly, by State Constitutional Amendments, meant to protect or strip protection abortion rights, depending on the sponsor, in which the result from the voters were to strongly favor abortion rights.
A rational group would take one of two actions:
- Change their position. Yes, this carries dangers, but if a logical refutation of the current position can be provided, then this can work. I’ve provided a refutation which is probably not unique, but doesn’t appear to have wide spread coverage.
- Figure out a defense. In a pluralistic society, positions are best defended with logical arguments, for that is the shared currency of intellectual thought.
Are either of these strategies been utilized by the Republicans, as it’s obvious that Dobbs is being used against them daily and effectively? Well, here’s Senator Cruz (R-TX) said:
Sen. Ted Cruz tells @edlavaCNN that he won't talk about abortion access because it's only "the press" that is "obsessed" with the issue. Not voters.
Meanwhile, Texan women are going into sepsis & dying because the TX abortion ban delayed their ability to receive emergency care🧵 pic.twitter.com/en3frJHcaU— Catherine Rampell (@crampell) October 30, 2024
Sen. Ted Cruz tells @edlavaCNN that he won’t talk about abortion access because it’s only “the press” that is “obsessed” with the issue. Not voters.
Meanwhile, Texan women are going into sepsis & dying because the TX abortion ban delayed their ability to receive emergency care
The old “No! You’re wrong! You’re wrong!” approach. Or Mr Trump’s approach:
Trump argued women would be safer and more prosperous with him as president and would “no longer be thinking about abortion.” [Los Angeles Times]
He’s responsible for selecting SCOTUS Justices that overturned Roe vs. Wade, but they’ll no longer want to think about abortion if he’s President? This is a type of magical thinking, useful only in irrational religious contexts, and which is not surprising given his religious upbringing.
These two defenses meet my expectation of the response of fourth-raters to a potential death blow. They’re not prepared, and it may be because they can’t imagine their Divinity not protecting them after fulfilling what they think it commanded; and when trying to build a defense, they discover the defenses don’t really work.
This is the core of the Republicans’ weakness in 2024, and I think they’re in for a very big shock.
