My fingers may fall off after this. This what? That!
YouGov? Hey, What About YouGov!
YouGov (3.0) is more or less the epitome of respected pollsters, at least until FiveThirtyEight recalculates results and ratings after the election. Why, then, did you, the reader, notice that I didn’t relay a whole bunch of YouGov polls that were released today? Here’s why, from FiveThirtyEight’s list of poll results for the Senate, specifically its Dates column:
Oct. 7-17
Today is October 30th, and there have been significant events for both candidates that might invalidate these results. I don’t know why these results were not released in a timely manner, but they weren’t.
Not all of the polls dropped by YouGov today are that old, but those that are from that Age (just before the Mesozoic, I believe) will not be quoted. Unless I muff it.
Got Any Details On Doing Polls?
This guy does. Go for the expertise on this matter, since I don’t know any knowledgeable pollsters myself. That I know of.
Here’s The Grist!
- Quoted merely for the edification of certain readers: Rutgers University Eagleton Center for Public Interest Polling (2.3) is giving New Jersey Democratic candidate Rep Kim (D-NJ) a thirty-two point lead over competitor Curtis Bashaw (R-NJ), 44%-12%. But there’s a trick here: The pollster didn’t provide Party affiliation. If it’s provided then the result improves for Mr Bashaw to 49%-26%, which is a 23 point deficit. These polls date from October 15-22.
That’s certainly an interesting commentary on straight Party ticket voting in New Jersey.
Since I’m here, Fairleigh Dickinson University (2.6) is giving Rep Kim a 57%-39% lead, making Mr Bashaw’s deficit 18 points. This poll dates from October 20-27. Did Bashaw pick up that much more support in that short amount of time, or are pollster models that divergent? Both contentions strike me as unlikely, as the leads accorded to Rep Kim seem high, and shrinking the deficit by that much in a week also seems of low probability. Fairleigh’s Executive Director has an interesting comment:
“Bashaw’s strategy was to try and make Kim look unacceptably liberal to New Jersey voters, and it just hasn’t happened,” said Cassino. “To win, Bashaw needs to get a lot of crossover votes from moderates and Democratic leaners, and we’re just not seeing it in the data.”
Republicans have to drop the divide and conquer strategy when the liberals are being successful; in fact, they need to reconsider certain facets of a political philosophy that is neither effective nor appealing to the typical citizen on the street. Right now the mendacity levels are high from the Republicans, and that’s because they’re unwilling to consider their failures as, well, failures; their tenets they treat as holy, rather than assertions contingent on results. That’s not going to work, especially among hard-headed Americans who can smell a steaming dump of failure when it shows up in front of them.
- As I said, YouGov gets a reference when their poll dates are not contemporary with Emperor Nero, and this poll is from October 21-28. They were in Nebraska and may have dashed Dan Osborn’s (I-NB) hopes, finding him trailing Senator Fischer (R-NB) 50%-43%. This is in stark contrast to the previous Nebraska update, in which The New York Times/Siena College (3.0) gave Mr Osborn a one point lead, and larger leads by other pollsters. It’s also worth noting that YouGov, a Brit firm, does seem to lean a trifle to the right, so this may be closer than it looks.
- Chronically polled Michigan gets a few more probes. SSRS (2.4), working for CNN, gives Rep Slotkin (D-MI) a six point lead, 48%-42%, over former Rep Rogers (R-MI), Suffolk University (2.9), working for USA Today, gives Rep Slotkin a much smaller lead of 47%-45%., and Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research (2.8), working for Fox News, gives Rep Slotkin a lead of 51%-47%, right in the middle.
- OK, I’ll admit if we’re talking chronic polling syndrome, Pennsylvania’s in worse shape than Michigan. This time, YouGov (2.9) is the left-most of the bunch, giving Senator Casey (D-PA) a lead of 50%-42% over challenger David McCormick (R-PA?). BUT – this is the oldest poll of the group, and it’s only here because I forgot to filter it from the list based on date and am too lazy to delete all that typing.
Susquehanna Polling & Research (2.3) gives the Senator a 49%-46% lead, SSRS (2.4), working for CNN, gives the Senator a 48%-45% lead, Quinnipiac University (2.8) has the Senator up by three also, 50%-47%, and Monmouth University Polling Institute has the gap at 45%-44%. Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research (2.8), working for Fox News, gives the Senator a 50%-48% lead among likely voters, and a larger 51%-46% lead among registered voters. YouGov, YES, I KNOW I HAVE THEM ABOVE, THIS IS A LATER POLL, gives the Senator a 48%-42% lead, which is smaller than a week or two earlier and “within the margin of error“. I gotta wonder if that’s a typo!
That makes for a gap range of 1 to 8 points. Doesn’t really leave the pollsters in a good smell, does it? Fox News has an observation from their poll that may be of interest:
Republican candidate Dave McCormick has closed the gap in the Pennsylvania Senate race. Incumbent Democratic Sen. Bob Casey is still ahead of McCormick but by just 2 points (50% to 48%), down from a 9-point lead in September (53-44%). This can be partly attributed to Casey losing ground with women – he’s up by 6 points today, down from a 21-point lead in September.
- In Wisconsin, highly respected Marquette University Law School (3.0) has it a very tight race, with Senator Baldwin (D-WI) leading Eric Hovde (R-WI), 49%-47%. SSRS (2.4), working for CNN, gives the Senator a 49%-47% as well. Nice to see some accordance, if not consilience.
These Are Outta Here, Sad To Say. Here, Have A Tissue!
Pollsters omitted, in full or in part, for this report: YouGov (3.0), as explained above; RABA Research (1.3), even if they do give Rep Gallego (D-AZ) the more likely fifteen point lead, because of their awful rating; Cygnal (2.1); SoCal Strategies (unknown).
Surely I Have Thoughts
Yeah, the bullshit is flying and even the top pollsters seem to confused and baffled. Time to go rest.
