Halloween is coming. Have you bought your mouse ears?
Oh, AtlasIntel again!
Yes, I talked about AtlasIntel (2.7) here, and it’s that 2.7 (out of three in the FiveThirtyEight rating system) that deters me from discarding their polls, so they appear below. But the divergence I discussed before continues, so keep that in mind for AtlasIntel poll results: They appear to be a conservative-aligned pollster.
They Said, ‘Eat Dirt, Run Like Crazy!’ I So Worry About Them
- I’ve adored the pollster University of Massachusetts Lowell Center for Public Opinion (2.9) since the 2022 New Hampshire Senate race, when they picked Senator Hassan (D-NY) by ten late in the race, when all the other pollsters, mostly conservative leaning pollsters, were giving her challenger, Don Bolduc (R-NH), a small lead. She won by ten. Now they’ve teamed up with another big-time name, YouGov (2.9 also), and produced a measurement for Pennsylvania Senator Casey (D-PA) and David McCormick (R-PA?), showing the Senator with a substantial lead, 48%-39%. There may be almost two and a bit weeks to go, but I suspect the Senator is cruising to a victory at this point, despite what most other pollsters and news media are claiming.
But not so fast, if you believe AtlasIntel (2.7), which has McCormick ahead, 48%-47%.
- In Michigan, Mitchell Research & Communications (2.4) is giving Rep Slotkin (D-MI) a 45%-40% lead over former Rep Mike Rogers (R-MI). Recall from the last update that Quinnipiac University (2.8) had this race even at 48%, so the pollsters are not really agreeing on the situation in Michigan. Senator and Minority Leader McConnell (R-KY) wants to be part of the action, and to that end his super PAC Senate Leadership Fund is reportedly spending another $10.5 million in Michigan. And then there’s AtlasIntel (2.7), which has this race is in a statistical dead heat at 48%, with a small advantage to former Rep Mike Rogers (R-MI). This is in direct contradiction to nearly all respectable polls, although Quinnipiac University (2.8) is the exception to that observation.
- The Nebraska regularly scheduled election has turned into a battle of candidate-sponsored polls, but Senator Fischer (R-NE) seems to be laboring under a handicap against challenger Dan Osborn (I-NE): her pollsters are consistently low-rated or not known at all to FiveThirtyEight, while Osborn’s polls are roughly half poorly rated pollsters and half highly rated. The latest example from the Senator is another weak riposte to Osborn’s use of SurveyUSA (2.8), and it comes from the unknown Torchlight Strategies, which the Senator has used repeatedly. It shows their sponsor, the Senator, leads the race, 51%-44%. Of course.
The indicators are a little contradictory. As I noted, Torchlight Strategies is unrated and unknown, so it may be willing to bend results to gain a sponsor’s favor; however, it is an “internal poll”, according to The Hill, and such are only of benefit if they’re honest; dishonest internal poll results, unless they’re doing double-entry polling, could result in angry lawsuits from the sponsor. But is this a leak from the Fischer campaign, meaning they just made shit up? For that matter, the condescension palpable in The Hill piece, a news source that I rather suspect leans Republican, smacks of conservative boilerplate, assembled from a playbook of stock phrases with hot glue, rather than a thoughtful report.
SurveyUSA’s results are also sponsored, but being rated highly at 2.8/3 should mean that they place honest results over pleasing the sponsor. If their rating moves down, it could mean lower prestige, lower demand for services, meaning less revenue, etc. Therefore, Fischer’s poll results are the most suspect, and have been all along, leaving me with the taste of their desperation in my mouth. This may be the upset of the season.
- YouGov (2.9) gives Texas Senator Cruz (R-TX) a commanding lead of 51%-44% over Rep Allred (D-TX). That’s in contrast with reports of Cruz’s panic in the previous update.
- In Montana Republican candidate Tim Sheehy (R-MT) has decided to resort to fear-based campaigning, as the Washington Examiner reports:
Republican Tim Sheehy is warning voters in the final days before the election that his closely watched Montana Senate race has higher stakes than control of the upper chamber.
The former Navy SEAL argued that reelecting Sen. Jon Tester (D-MT) to a fourth term means not only that Donald Trump‘s agenda could possibly be thwarted but that the former president would also be impeached for a third time if he returns to the White House.
“Make no mistake: If he does not have a Congress that’s supporting his actions, we saw last time what happened. He was impeached twice,” Sheehy told a small group of supporters gathered for a rally on Monday. “Oh, by the way, your senior senator, Jon Tester, voted to impeach him not once but twice. If Trump doesn’t have the Senate when he gets there, he will be impeached right away.”
Small problem, though. Senators don’t impeach, as Steve Benen observes:
What Sheehy apparently doesn’t know — but really should — is that the Senate doesn’t have impeachment authority and it can’t impeach presidents, even if a majority of members wanted to.
The House impeaches, the entire Senate votes in the trial authorized by the impeachment, and requires a two thirds supermajority to convict and thus remove the President.
Resorting to this class of tactics suggests to me that Mr Sheehy is running out of ways to spin his shortcomings. His business is dying, he doesn’t have Senator Tester’s experience and Montana-specific background as Mr Sheehy is from Minnesota, and he’s boxed in by the Republican Party tenets. Maybe his internal polls are not as sunny as the public polls. He might even be in a statistical dead heat.
Or worse.
- AtlasIntel (2.7) would like me to believe Arizona Rep Gallego (D-AZ) leads Republican Kari Lake (R-AZ) 50%-46%; I expect, perhaps wrongly, that Gallego’s margin will be in the double digits. Instead, this lead is nearly within the margin of error, which is ±3 points.
- AtlasIntel (2.7) has Wisconsin Senator Baldwin (D-WI) leading challenger Eric Hovde (R-WI) 49%-46%. It’s tempting to consider just how large the Senator’s lead is in reality if AtlasIntel’s results skew conservative, as I suspect.
- AtlasIntel (2.7) claims Nevada’s Senator Rosen (D-NV) leads Republican challenger Sam Brown (R-NV) 47%-43%; I expect, perhaps wrongly, that Rosen’s margin will be in the double digits. Instead, this lead is nearly within the margin of error, which is ±3 points.
- In Ohio, Senator Brown (D-OH) is seeing the same phenomenon as Vice President Harris (D) is seeing: backing from Republicans, in this case former Ohio Governor Bob Taft (R-OH). Challenger Bernie Moreno (R-OH) must be quite the extremist.
Pollster Ignored! (The one-night Broadway sensation!)
In the list of pollsters ignored in this update is The Bullfinch Group, Expedition Strategies (1.2), Morning Consult (1.9), and unknown, if prolific, ActiVote. Those pollsters who are unknown lack “(x.x)”.
I also discarded RMG Research (2.4) polls, despite their respectable rating, due to their admission they are working with Scott Rasmussen of Rasmussen Reports. The latter is listed on FiveThirtyEight in the section of pollsters who are so awful they are not rated. Rasmussen Reports is known to be Republican-aligned, but trying to adjust RMG Research poll results seemed to me a tiresome project, doomed to failure.
Naturally, those races seen as non-competitive were also not reported. Surprise results will change my judgment on such races, see Arizona, above.
