Early voting, you’d think, would indicate one side or the other has enthused its voters to get out to the polls, or mail absentee ballots, as soon as possible to avoid the ooopsie-blues of forgetting to vote.
But what about this? Here’s right-wing pundit Erick Erickson:
… yesterday eclipsed a new record for early voting in Georgia with 300,000 people going to the polls. While it’s impossible to definitively extrapolate which candidate is in the lead, one thing is clear. All of the data says that Trump’s advantage comes from low-propensity voters who don’t vote consistently. If turnout remains high, this is a really good sign for Republicans.
On the other hand, the left is convinced early turnout will reflect voters for their side. Here’s a random selection from Daily Kos, mostly picked because it’s to hand and not because it’s convincing – it’s limp in that regard:
Just a quick happy note to say that in the 24 years I have lived here, I have never seen an early voting line as long as I did this morning at 10:30 am. If you don’t know Carrboro, NC we are adjacent to Chapel Hill and 90% Harris voters.
So who’s right? I can better see the argument that voters outraged by Dobbs have gone to the polls early in order to vote against any Republicans they feel are responsible for restricting their abortion and other reproductive health choices. It’s existential, and that grabs the attention of voters, at least those that place their own lives above theological restraints – keeping in mind that many religions do not restrict abortion, or at least have reasonable restrictions.
Erickson doesn’t cite his source for All of the data says that Trump’s advantage comes from low-propensity voters who don’t vote consistently, nor is the causal chain of such a conclusion obvious, so my evaluation doesn’t lean that way.
I could be wrong, of course.
But, at least for some commentators, not necessarily those I quoted, there may be outright lying going on because a disheartened voter may transition to a non-voter. Why spend the time and put forth the effort in a spasm of futility? But the disheartened voter may not be justified in that transition; get every single one of them together, and victory might still be gained.
Or so the thinking goes.
We won’t know for sure until state-level returns come in, and even then it’ll depend on what’s reported.
