Who? Them? They went that away.
Gimme that hot foot food…
Didn’t I See A Redfield & Wilton Strategies Poll The Other Day?
No, you saw a bunch of them. If you were looking.
I’ve decided to drop them, though, unless something comes up. I am filled with loathing and hesitancy when I see that name. Some of their polls look right, some radically do not, and, quite frankly, GIGO.
So no more incorporation of their results into my thinking.
Here’s The Rest Of The Herd
- In what I consider to be the most dramatic and unexpected race of the season – no, I’m not talking Marbula One – Senator Fischer (R-NE) is still measured as having a meager one point lead in Nebraska, 43%-42%, over challenger Dan Osborn (I-NE). The problem for assessors? The pollster/sponsor is
Global Strategy Group (1.8)/Retire Career Politicians. The latter is listed by FiveThirtyEight as a partisan group aligned with the Independent Party. It’s a red flag when the pollster, #126 in the FiveThirtyEight ratings, is somewhat weak, and the sponsor is partisan and would benefit from the candidate winning.That said, even keeping in mind the press release may be misleading, this statement is interesting:
… after hearing positive biographies of both candidates, Osborn leads 48-40.
The pair presses on with a clear partisan message that, nevertheless, may be accurate:
In response to Osborn’s surge, the Fischer campaign has gone up with their first ad in the last week, an entirely negative message that highlights what is currently broken in American politics. Fischer’s main attack is that Osborn does not support Trump, which underscores how she has completely missed the point of Osborn’s independent campaign. Osborn is not supporting either major party candidate for president, he’s focused on fighting for all working people across party lines against political elites and the party bosses who are crippling our country.
This may be the most exciting race to watch as we approach Voting Day.
- Maryland, widely considered a solid Democratic property, is also experiencing drama as Gov Hogan (R-MD), the former Republican governor who is quite popular, has made it a race despite the fear & loathing of local and national Republican extremists. But the latest bit of news comes from the other side of the ledger:
Angela Alsobrooks, the Democratic nominee for US Senate in Maryland, improperly took advantage of tax breaks she did not qualify for, including one meant for low-income senior citizens, saving thousands of dollars in taxes on two properties she owned in Washington, DC, and in Maryland.
A CNN review of property records and tax bills shows that for both properties, Alsobrooks claimed for more than a decade a homestead tax exemption that is meant to apply only to someone’s primary residence, violating state and local tax relief requirements.
She also improperly claimed a senior citizens’ tax break on her Washington property, cutting the tax bill in half. Alsobrooks, 53, never qualified for that tax break, but her grandparents, who owned the property before her, likely did. [CNN/Politics]
What the Democrats were no doubt hoping would be a non-event is anything but. Alsobrooks’ response?
A senior adviser for Alsobrooks told CNN that she was unaware of the problem and that her attorneys are working with both Washington and Prince George’s County, Maryland, to resolve the issue.
Not totally irresponsible, but perhaps a bit two-faced, as she’s “unaware” but her attorneys are working on it with the jurisdictions.
So, of course, it’s necessary to ask what happens if Hogan wins. Do the Republicans disown him? As I’ve mentioned before, does he move over to the Democrats, or simply unregister from the Republicans? Or will he function as an exemplar for moderate Republicans and independents, implicitly rebuking the extremists currently in control of the Republican Party?
This may turn out to be the second most exciting race this season.
- Who is Research America? FiveThirtyEight doesn’t know. Should I believe this unknown pollster or their sponsor, University of Mary Washington Center for Leadership & Media Studies, who I’ve never heard of? Should I take seriously their claim that Virginia’s Senator Kaine’s (D-VA) lead over challenger Hung Cao (R-VA) is only six points, 49%-43%?
Probably not.
- Is Missouri hosting a possible upset of Senator Hawley (R-MO) by challenger Lucas Kunce (D-MO)? Until today, I thought the answer was no. But this news report has made me thoughtful:
Marcellus Williams, who spent more than two decades on Missouri’s death row convicted of a 1998 murder that he says he did not commit, died by lethal injection Tuesday evening after a lengthy and complex effort to exonerate him based on DNA testing issues.
Williams, 55, was pronounced dead at the Potosi Correctional Center in Mineral Point.
After two last-minute execution reprieves starting almost a decade ago, momentum to reexamine Williams’s decades-old conviction gathered from unlikely sources, including the local prosecutor from the office that convicted him. Williams received an outpouring of support from legal groups such as the Midwest Innocence Project and a member of Congress. The family of the victim in the 1998 St. Louis stabbing came to oppose Williams’s execution. [WaPo]
I’m very disturbed that Mr. Williams was executed when even the prosecutors had raised doubts. This sounds like a heartless injustice, the sort of thing that stirs up riots and makes people wonder if they’re next. I know that some Republicans regard such doubts as little more than Democratic attempts to foil death sentences. I think such sentiments have even been expressed by conservative SCOTUS justices. But when the prosecutors say they got it wrong, it seems to me that it should be incumbent on elected officials, regardless of party allegiance, to investigate and delay, if necessary, such irremediable sentences.
Missouri voters may be similarly upset by the Republicans who run and represent Missouri. And take out their anger on them.
- In Pennsylvania, MassINC Polling Group (a very respectable 2.8) gives Senator Casey (D-PA) a seven point lead, 49%-42%, over challenger David McCormick (R-PA?). Emerson College (2.9) gives the Senator a smaller lead of 47%-42%. Morning Consult (1.9) has a larger lead for the Senator of 49%-40%. These results are congruent with other respected pollsters in previous reports. Interestingly, Morning Consult’s sample size is twice that of each of the other two pollsters, but those pollsters are currently rated far ahead of Morning Consult. Has Morning Consult corrected a problem in data gathering?
- Wisconsin experiences the same three probes as Pennsylvania: MassINC Polling Group (2.8) gives Senator Baldwin (D-WI) a lead of 52%-44% over Republican Eric Hovde (R-WI?), Emerson College (2.9) gives the Senator a 49%-46% lead, and Morning Consult (1.9) lead for the Senator is 50%-43%. Results like these are common enough for Wisconsin that I expect Senator Baldwin to retain her seat.
- Unknown pollster ActiVote, which certainly seems to lean conservative, is giving challenger Bernie Moreno (R-OH) a 51%-49% lead in Ohio over Senator Brown (D-OH). Do I take this seriously? Not on its own. Most other polls give Brown a lead.In other news, Oliver Willis on Daily Kos reports a potential faux pas by Mr Moreno:
Bernie Moreno, the Republican nominee for the Senate race in Ohio, told an audience on Friday that many women voters are solely focused on abortion rights. Moreno also said it was “crazy” for women over fifty to be concerned over the abortion issue at all.
If this is true, it betrays a basic intellectual failure on Mr Moreno’s part to understand why humans band together and have governments: to not only gain safety and enjoy rights, but to ensure those rights extend to other members of the group. Uneven distribution on arbitrary basis results in uproar and disruption for the group, because we band together for mutual and equal support.
Will this become a drag on Mr. Moreno’s campaign? No. It’s an abstract point and will be ignored or, even, looked upon favorably by those who have put individualism on an altar. Individualism is certainly a part of much of American culture, but, like any right or tradition, it has its limits, and when it becomes a danger to American society, it should be a limited tradition. But this is probably too abstract.
It’s also important to note that Mr Moreno has abdicated on his responsibility to persuade his target audience of the rightness of his arguments. He is fixated on telling them that abortion no longer matters to the older crowd, implicitly, if ignorantly, admitting his arguments lack the moral force he thinks they have.
- The same ActiVote is giving Florida Senator Scott (R-FL) an eight point lead over former Rep Mucarsel-Powell (D-FL), 54%-46%. The likelihood that the deeply unpopular Senator is at 54% strikes me as doubtful. It’s worth noting that ActiVote’s sample size is atypically, among all pollsters, small at 400 voters, and results in a margin of error of ±4.9 points.
In other news, former Republican National Committee chairman Michael Steele (R-MD), serving in that role back in 2009-2011, is predicting that Florida will go Democratic in the Presidential race this election, which would end Mr Trump’s ambitions. Whether or not that includes Senator Scott’s seat is not addressed.
- Massachusetts finally has polling, and it’s even respectable! University of New Hampshire Survey Center (2.6) is giving Senator Warren (D-MA) a 58%-32% lead over challenger John Deaton (R-MA), or 26 points, while MassINC Polling Group (2.8) is giving the Senator a similar lead of 56%-35%, or 21 points, over the cryptocurrency advocate.
I’ll desist from any more Massachusetts reports unless a black swan is reported to be circling.
- Connecticut, too, has received a poll, from the suddenly prolific MassINC Polling Group (2.8), giving Senator Murphy (D-CT) a 51%-35% lead over challenger Matthew Corey (R-CT). I plan not to report any more Connecticut polls unless that
bloodyblack bird appears. - Texas gets some polling. First, Morning Consult (1.9) is giving Rep Allred (D-TX) a slender lead over Senator Cruz (R-TX) of 45%-44%. Second, Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation (unrated) is giving Senator Cruz the lead at 48%-45%. One pollster is unrated, and the other has a rating that is unimpressive: perhaps reasons not to be excited either way. Still, Allred’s team and voters have a reason to cheer, and that may be what they need. Notably,
But the Dallas Democrat still appears to struggle with name identification as 30% of likely voters said they do not know enough about Allred to have an opinion about him.
Which suggests Allred still has room to grow his share of the vote, while Cruz’ reputation, whatever it might be, is probably cemented with nearly all residents of Texas.
- And a respectable pollster, Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy (2.6), shows Minnesota’s Senator Klobuchar (D-MN) leading Royce White (R-MN) 51%-40%. This margin is surprisingly small; I expected it to be double that. Margin of error is ±3.5 points.
In Conclusion …
I’ve fallen a ways behind due to feline illness and unexpected visitors, and this post is big enough already, so here’s the big sloppy mess, plumb in your lap. Another update soon enough. I hope you find it useful.
