Today Robert F. Kennedy, Jr (RFK Jr) announced he is dropping out of the Presidential race.
RFK Jr. backs Trump: Robert F. Kennedy Jr. joined former President Donald Trump at a rally in Arizona on Friday, hours after he suspended his independent presidential campaign and endorsed Trump. Kennedy said he will withdraw from the ballot in 10 battleground states. [CNN/Politics]
I suspect, since he tried to arrange a discussion with Democratic nominee Harris concerning a possible Cabinet job, that may have been the deal he made with Trump.
RFK Jr no doubt realized that his dream of becoming President, never a strong possibility, was dashed when Biden refused the Democratic Presidential nomination and endorsed Vice President Harris for the nomination. His delay in dropping his run for President may have been in the thin hopes that Harris would be denied the nomination. While I think it was never in doubt that she’d win and accept the nomination, I must say this campaign season has been wacky enough that RFK Jr was actually justified in waiting it out.
Then again, he may simply have been waiting for Harris to become the official nominee so that he could make a bid for a job in her Cabinet.
All that said, what comes next? Will RFK Jr voters transfer to Trump? While it may seem like a sensible proposition, I don’t think so. The problem here is that many of his voters were what’s being called double-haters, voters who didn’t believe Mr Trump nor President Biden were up to the job, and RFK Jr was their backup plan. From the above link, it seems that some election watchers considered the double-haters a substantial portion of the electorate:
This bloc of “double haters” has ballooned in size thanks to the surge in Biden’s unpopularity since 2020, with polls suggesting they now represent 16% to 20% of the electorate. [Axios]
But now Kamala Harris is the Democratic nominee, and suddenly the double haters are single-haters. Can RFK Jr persuade them to vote for Trump against their better judgment?
I don’t see it happening. RFK Jr has weak presence, and, from my very limited exposure to him, he seems spastic and confused. While his anti-vaccination position may appeal to a small number of voters, influencing even their vote to go with Trump seems unlikely. The magic of the Kennedy name, especially when his own relatives have advised against voting for him, is weakening badly.
Finally, and, yes, it’s not official, but if he has traded his endorsement for a Cabinet position, it really makes him look like a power-monger, an over-eager carrier of the Kennedy torch, and someone with very poor judgment.
I suspect he’s delivered a large number of voters to Harris, not Trump. Voters are not commodities, after all, but thinking beings.
Bring on the polls.
