The special election thread continues with an election in reddish Florida that resulted in a nasty shock for the Reds Republicans:
Florida Democrat Tom Keen flipped District 35 in the state house on Tuesday, beating Republican rival Erika Booth by 11,390 votes to 10,800. …
The victory is a major boost for Florida Democrats who suffered a dramatic blow during the November 2022 midterm elections, which left Republicans with a supermajority in both the state house and senate. Heather Williams, president of the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee, branded the win an “earthquake,” noting the GOP had won the seat in 2022. [Newsweek]
The article doesn’t provide an analysis, but Ben Wikler on Daily Kos suggests this:
The race had two central issues: property insurance (a big deal in Florida)… and abortion.
And that this explains a 13 point swing since 2022. I have no idea if Mr. Wikler is an authority on the electoral politics of Florida, however.
Combine this with improving consumer sentiment, a complete lack of interest in Biden’s intra-party rival Rep Dean Phillips (D-MN) from fellow Democrats, and likely Republican nominee Mr. Trump’s many legal troubles, and, despite the media’s insistence that Biden is in trouble, he may have only to improve his messaging concerning his high competence in most governmental matters to turn Trump’s frantic antics into the Dance of Futility.
