On Lawfare Martijn Rasser is discussing increasing pressure put on China by the USA when it comes to semiconductors:
The Department of Commerce’s Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS) published a rule with five main parts. One part banned any entity or individual from supplying leading-edge graphics processing units (GPUs)—a type of integrated circuit that accelerates the creation of images—and electronics containing them to any other entity or individual in China. These controls were imposed because GPU chips play an important role in the development and use of artificial intelligence applications, particularly the deep learning methods that are the main driver of the current AI boom. This ban applies to all foreign-made GPUs as a result of a modified extraterritorial jurisdictional rule called the foreign direct product rule, or FDPR for short. The new FDPR subjects any such chip made directly from American technology or software, or produced, even in part, from U.S.-made semiconductor production equipment to U.S. jurisdiction.
Because all semiconductor fabrication facilities use at least some U.S.-made equipment, every such GPU on the planet is now subject to U.S. controls. The Biden administration needed to apply this part of the rule extraterritorially because these GPUs are not made in the United States and no other country subjects them to any form of export control given their widespread commercial applications. No supply of these chips to a Chinese entity can take place without a U.S. government license. Unlike the Trump administration’s policy of granting licenses to Huawei and the Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC) for certain types of older-generation consumer applications, the Biden team’s announced licensing policy is to presumptively deny all such licenses.
This was imposed October 7th, so it was before the China-wide protests over the zero tolerance Covid policy, but it certainly contributes to the pressure on the Chinese government. It says, Enough copying! Figure it out on your own! And the Chinese government is not known for encouraging widespread creativity; down that path lies forbidden thoughts.
But given their sudden change of policy when it comes to Covid, from zero tolerance to a dropping of many restrictions, which according to NPR has confused and discouraged Chinese citizens, one has to wonder how close they are to a tipping point when it comes to the government.
They’re probably a ways away. The Communist Party retains control of the armed forces, and I have yet to see any evidence, credible or otherwise, of the Chinese military be willing to turn against the Party.
On the other hand, I’d be surprised to see any such evidence. It seems very likely that senior military leaders are well aware of what would happen to the leaders of a failed coup. A whisper cannot released until the deed is done; don’t expect to hear rampant rumors that the Chinese military is restive.
