They said it was impossible, then another they crossed an elephant with an amoeba. No typo there, “another they” is right. And, now, in other news …
- Democratic pollster Impact Research , aka ALG Research, a “B/C” rated pollster by FiveThirtyEight, gives Rep Tim Ryan (D) a 50% – 47% lead over lawyer/author J. D. Vance (R) in the race for the open Senate seat in Ohio. This is within the margin of error. Make of that what you will. You’ll find the salt shaker behind the ersatz ketchup bottle.
- A working dude like me simply doesn’t have time to do eye opening research; I just mess around with a general sense of how the electorate is leaning, and how that electorate is perceiving, or will perceive, certain events of political significance, such as the Dobbs decision, the January 6th Insurrection, or Palin’s loss in Alaska. Therefore, I really appreciate this WaPo article by Jennifer Rubin on the chances of Cheri Beasley (D) in North Carolina’s Senatorial race. The contrast between her and her opponent, Rep Ted Budd (R), is instructive, and I hope his anti-veteran vote in the House becomes well-known in the State.
- An AARP poll gives Senator Masto (D) of Nevada a 44% – 40% lead over challenger Adam Laxalt (R), which is more or less in line with other polls. AARP polling is not known to FiveThirtyEight.
- Colorado’s incumbent Senator Bennet (D) has an 11 point lead, 46% – 35%, over challenger O’Dea (R), according to Public Policy Polling. This pollster gets an A- rating from FiveThirtyEight. It suggests Bennet has a solid lead with two months until Election Day.
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Senator Todd Young’s (R-IN) On The Issues summation.
A poll taken by Change Research for the McDermott (D) campaign shows him trailing incumbent Indiana Senator Young (R) by three points. As Change Research is only rated a B- pollster by FiveThirtyEight, it may not be sensible to take this poll seriously, especially in the absence of any other Indiana polls, and, as the Young campaign points out, it was an online poll, always a negative sign. On the flip side, though, Young won his 2016 race by roughly ten points, and defeated a member of the politically prominent Bayh family, for those of us who remember the late Senator Birch Bayh (D-IN). Challenger McDermott doesn’t have that kind of political pedigree, although he is a successful, longtime mayor of the city of Hammond, Indiana, and has the additional credential of being a Navy veteran. If we stipulate the poll to be accurate, a three point deficit (and 2.62% margin of error!) is indicative of something unexpected happening in one of the more conservative States of the Union. It suggests that the the question is whether Young’s vote for the recent gun control bill has him in trouble with far-right gun rights absolutists, or if his position on abortion has him in trouble with voters deeply troubled by the Dobbs decision. Young’s On The Issues summation suggests he’s one of the more moderate members of the Senate’s GOP caucus, but whether that’s bad or good in Indiana may depend on the weather in Indianapolis. In the end, I think, mostly because this was an online poll, it’s not worth getting excited just yet. It might have even been a fishing expedition, designed to draw in someone like A rated Fox News polling without actually paying for their service, or perhaps lure money from the national Democrats who hope to finance an upset win. We need a more authoritative poll before I speculate further.
- A- rated Emerson College Polling gives Lt. Gov. John Fetterman (D) a 48% to 44% lead over Dr. Mehmet Oz (R) in Pennsylvania, which is conspicuously less than other polls. Has something changed, or is this an outlier? Did the Oz campaign’s reminder to voters concerning Fetterman’s stroke just prior to primaries hit home?
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Tiffany Smiley’s (R) On The Issues summation.
Previous, if scarce, polls of Washington State’s Senate race of incumbent Murray (D) vs challenger Smiley (R) had shown Murray with an overwhelming lead over her moderate Republican rival, except for one outlier produced by a dubious pollster. But now Trafalgar has released a poll showing Murray leading 49.2% to 46.3%, which is within the margin of error. Trafalgar is rated A- by FiveThirtyEight, so it’s unlikely to be polling incompetence. Has Smiley’s moderate policy positions taken their toll on Murray? Possibly Smiley was unfamiliar to voters prior to this poll, but now they know and like her? The word went out to the far-right extremists that they support her or get out of the Republican Party? Or perhaps President Biden’s college debt forgiveness program, as predicted by some right-wing pundits, is negatively impacting Democratic opponents? It could, despite Trafalgar’s reputation, just be an outlier. Ah, so many options! The next couple of polls from respectable sources should be quite interesting. But if we’re to believe Smiley’s On The Issues summation diagram at right, she’s at least not a denizen of Clinton’s fever-swamp far-right. My buck-ninety-eight is on Washington voters discovering Smiley is not the MAGA-radical they expected the Washington GOP to nominate, with a consequent willingness to give her a chance. Murray, who has turned down debate invites, had better get off her ass and participate, or this will turn into an avoidable upset.
No, I don’t have a link for the amoeba story! Stop asking! Read this link to previous news, instead!
