For the minute-by-minute prognosticators who live for Election Night, Ranked Choice Voting may be a nightmare. We have an example up in Alaska, where the seat of the late Rep Don Young (R) is up for grabs, and assumed to be going Republican again. With Sarah Palin (R), the former governor, in the mix, it was thought to be a fight between Palin, representing the religious far right extremists, and Nick Begich, who had worked for the late Rep Young’s campaign.
So who’s leading?
Mary Peltola (D).
With two-thirds of expected votes counted in the special election for the House seat of the late congressman Don Young (R-Alaska), former Alaska governor and GOP vice-presidential nominee Palin surprisingly trailed a Democrat, Mary Peltola, 38 percent to 32 percent. The other front-running Republican, Nick Begich, was at 29 percent.
Where this goes from here, nobody knows. But Peltola far outperformed the primary results in June, in which she took just 10 percent of the vote. She appeared to benefit from the decision of independent/Democratic-aligned Al Gross to drop out of the race after the primary, making it a three-candidate contest with two Republicans and a Democrat. But even accounting for that, Peltola’s showing is strong. [WaPo]
And I agree with the article: who knows where this heads as RCV procedures are followed, along with the absentee ballots that haven’t been counted? The leader today may be middle of the pack tomorrow. Or worse.
And that’ll drive the prognosticators up the wall.
So be prepared. Popcorn, peanuts, that sort of thing. And I will only be surprised if the Democrat wins. If that happens then it suggests the Republicans are really being repudiated by the electorate. But I doubt that’ll happen. I think Begich wins, assuming he’s less extreme than Palin.
