It’s not in the least uncommon to hear political references to the State of Kansas being prefaced with the phrase ruby-red, meaning solidly Republican. This, despite the fact that it has a Democratic governor, a position that is up for reelection this fall, Governor Laura Kelly (D). She succeeded, in the elected sequence, former Senator, Governor, and Ambassador, in that order, Sam Brownback (R).
Remember him? Brownback, and his allies in the State Legislature – a pack of extremists – cut taxes while leaving spending in place, confident in the magic of the Laffer Curve, the idea that cutting taxes will lead to economic prosperity sufficient to cover the governmental budgetary hole left by cutting taxes. Five years later, with an unexpected, gaping, pus-filled hole in the State budget, and a Federal court hounding the State to properly fund education, most of Brownback’s allies went down to unexpected defeat, either in the primaries to moderate Republicans, or to Democrats in the general election. Once in power, the victors modified, mostly by rolling back, the tax policies to cover the gap, overriding Brownback’s veto in order to do so.
And Brownback? He resigned to accept the position of U.S. Ambassador-at-Large for International Religious Freedom. He went down screaming defiance (or “patience!” as he might have put it), but, truth be told, it was disgrace. That’s what we call it when a person’s policy fails so disastrously that the tenets upon which it rests burn down with it. His Lt. Gov., Jeff Colyer, took over – I didn’t mention him before as he came to this position through inheritance, not election – and when he ran for a full term, he lost in the primary to well-known extremist and former State AG Kris Kobach (R).
So. Back to Governor Laura Kelly. How did she win the seat? Remember Kobach? It’s widely accepted that Kobach, as an extremist, repelled so many independent and moderate Kansas Republicans that Kelly snatched victory from the Republicans. And it’s true, she won only with a plurality, even if by five points.
There’s a pattern here, and I think it’s this: Kansans dislike extremists. And who is currently running for power in Kansas? On the Republican side, from what I can gather from random reading, a bunch of anti-abortion extremists. For Kansas voters, my impression is this would be fine if Roe vs. Wade were still in force, but with the Dobbs decision overturning Roe, the power dynamic in Kansas, as it is already proving in certain other States, may be changing. There is already evidence of a power dynamic change in the rejection of the Kansas Constitutional Amendment that would have rejected abortion protections of just this week.
Could we see a Kansas legislature of a vastly different nature after this November’s election? I’ll skip analysis, as I know little to nothing about local Kansas politics, but as a general rule, extremists are kicked out by voters once they appear to be imminently dangerous.
Does this give Governor Kelly (D) a lift in her re-election run?
And what about Senator Moran (R), also up for re-election. Until now I had him marked as a safe seat, but now I wonder. His On The Issues summation is on the right. It’s clear that he’s no moderate, and the OTI page quotes him:
Life from conception is sacred and must be defended.
The last Senate election in Kansas, of Roger Marshall (R), found Democrats to be short of the 50% mark by 8+ points. Can they make that up against a sitting incumbent with the aforementioned added boost?
I have no more facts than that, no polls, just that and the knowledge that the same primary that yielded the rejection of the Constitutional Amendment also yielded Mark Holland as the Democratic nominee. He claims to be or have been a pastor and mayor, but little detail is present on the source Ballotpedia page.
That first poll will speak to whether the rejection of the Constitutional Amendment was a one-time event, or if the Kansas electorate will continue to safeguard their right to abortion by showing Moran the door and giving the seat to the inexperienced, but pro-choice, Holland. I do not envy them their choice.
