It’s no doubt too early for this sort of speculation, but I cannot resist. I’ve watched the January 6th hearings, seen at least some right-wing media evaluate the hearings as devastating for the former President, and now the first few polls have come out indicating a shift in independent voter sentiment, from Republicans to Democrats. Will it be both seismic and persistent?
Let’s assume so. Further, if this is a well-deserved disaster for Trump, it’s not unreasonable to assume his allies in the elected official pool, at least those running for election or reelection, are facing their own disasters, even if they don’t comprehend it just yet. Well-deserved guilt by association.
And the Republican Party is splashed with dishonor, not because Trump was a member in good standing, but the nauseating personal allegiance that so many members had to him, loudly proclaimed.
Who will be the first Republican member of Congress to leave the Party?
Senator Murkowski.
If any do, my guess is the most likely is Senator Murkowski (R-AK), who, as a moderate politician of independent mien, does not get the respect she deserves from an Alaska GOP that appears to be out of its mind. Further, she voted ‘aye’ on the Alito, Gorsuch, and Barrett nominations to SCOTUS, leaving her mighty embarrassed by Dobbs. Given that she won the 2010 campaign as a write-in candidate after being primaried, she almost certainly has the strength to leave the Republicans and set up shop as a successful independent. And I can’t imagine she’s delighted by many of her fellows in the Republican Party – it’s not the Party of her father, Senator and Governor Murkowski.
Senator Collins.
But she may have a competitor in Senator Collins (R-ME), who has made public her dismay at the poor behavior of the four Justices for whom she voted (Kavanaugh in addition to those for whom Murkowski voted) who lead her to believe they respected stare decisis, or judicial precedent, and then have proceeded to overturn several rulings that the Federalist Society has hated.
As independents, these two Senators would join Senators Sanders (I-VT) and King (I-ME), making for four independent Senators, each a power in their own right as they don’t, or no longer, owe allegiance to either Party.
If Even McMullin (I-UT) were to defeat Senator Mike Lee (R-UT), that’d make five. That’s almost a bloc in itself. And Senator Romney (R-UT), although formerly a steadfast Republican and even Presidential nominee, has over the last few years seemed more and more out of place. A sixth?
But it all has to start with some Republican. I won’t speculate about House members, as I don’t track them much. But it’s my guess the first defection, if any, will be in the Senate, and won’t take place until very near the election, or shortly thereafter.
Longtime Senator Republican leader Senator Mitch McConnell (R-KY) may be facing more losses than he anticipates, and not entirely his direct fault. Not that I am sympathetic about it, as he’s been a destructive force all of his own.
