The latest NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist poll is out and contains what some might think is preliminary evidence of my contention that the Democrats will find strength in the supposedly imminent ruling to overturn Roe v. Wade:
Democrats also got a boost on which party Americans want to control Congress. By a 47%-to-42% margin, this survey showed voters would cast their ballot in favor of a Democrat in their local congressional district if the election were held today.
For Democrats, that is a net increase on the so-called congressional ballot test of 8 points from last month’s survey, when 47% said they would vote for a Republican, as compared to 44% who said they would vote for a Democrat. Those numbers were within the margin of error, but it was the first time in eight years that Republicans had done that well on the question in the Marist poll.
The question is whether this spike for Democrats lasts. [Lee Miringoff, director of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion, which conducted the poll] sees reason to believe it might.
Yes, will the spike not be a spike? In a poll with a margin of ± 3.9% for adults and 4.1% for registered voters, there’s lots of room to bounce around, so I’d like to see several polls in a row before I might believe that there’s some proof that the upturning of Roe has electoral legs.
Keep in mind that this has the most visibility in Presidential and Senate races; the House, which is vulnerable to gerrymandering, will only reflect such legs if independents in the few swing districts go out and vote.
Keep an eye on the polling.
