The World Bank has released a report1 (summary here) on the impact of (usable) water scarcity on GDP (Gross Domestic Productivity). From the Executive Summary:
The impacts of climate change will be channeled primarily through the water cycle, with consequences that could be large and uneven across the globe. Water-related climate risks cascade through food, energy, urban, and environmental systems. Growing populations, rising incomes, and expanding cities will converge upon a world where the demand for water rises exponentially, while supply becomes more erratic and uncertain. If current water management policies persist, and climate models prove correct, water scarcity will proliferate to regions where it currently does not exist, and will greatly worsen in regions where water is already scarce. Simultaneously, rainfall is projected to become more variable and less predictable, while warmer seas will fuel more violent floods and storm surges. Climate change will increase water-related shocks on top of already demanding trends in water use. Reduced freshwater availability and competition from other uses—such as energy and agriculture—could reduce water availability in cities by as much as two thirds by 2050, compared to 2015 levels.
From the other summary (second link):
The combined effects of growing populations, rising incomes, and expanding cities will see demand for water rising exponentially, while supply becomes more erratic and uncertain.
Exponentially?
- Unless action is taken soon, water will become scarce in regions where it is currently abundant – such as Central Africa and East Asia – and scarcity will greatly worsen in regions where water is already in short supply – such as the Middle East and the Sahel in Africa. These regions could see their growth rates decline by as much as 6% of GDP by 2050 due to water-related impacts on agriculture, health, and incomes.
- Water insecurity could multiply the risk of conflict. Food price spikes caused by droughts can inflame latent conflicts and drive migration. Where economic growth is impacted by rainfall, episodes of droughts and floods have generated waves of migration and spikes in violence within countries.
So just what is the World Bank? I found this from the Wikipedia entry:
The World Bank is an international financial institution that provides loans[3] to developing countries for capital programs. It comprises two institutions: the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD), and the International Development Association (IDA). The World Bank is a component of the World Bank Group, which is part of the United Nations system.
The World Bank’s official goal is the reduction of poverty. However, according to its Articles of Agreement, all its decisions must be guided by a commitment to the promotion of foreign investment and international trade and to the facilitation of Capital investment.
Which is actually rather interesting, because in a recent NewScientist (23 April 2016, paywall) interview piece with Arjen Hoekstra comes the concept of a water footprint:
You came up with the idea of the water footprint. What is it?
The water footprint is the total volume of fresh water used in the making of products such as food, clothing or energy. People also have personal water footprints, because we consume these products and of course use water in our homes. Countries, too, have their own water footprints.
This is then connected to international trade:
How is the UK doing in terms of water use?
Because it imports so many goods, three-quarters of the UK’s water consumption is actually outside of its borders. And about half of that usage is not sustainable. For example, the UK imports rice and olives from southern Spain and sugarcane from Pakistan, regions where water is overexploited. This means groundwater levels are declining and rivers dwindling or drying up. That’s bad news for the exporting countries and for the UK, because these food sources will ultimately fail.
And his conclusion:
We lose our own agriculture because elsewhere you have free water, cheap land, cheap labour. But it is not truly cheap; it is at the expense of the people over there, their land and their water. And in the long run, our own food supply is at risk. We need to change the rules of the market by discriminating in favour of sustainable production. It is a global challenge for agriculture, power generation, trade and economics, which we must work together to address. It’s a big deal, and it will only get bigger.
It’s worth keeping in mind the agenda of the World Bank – promotion of international trade – and the deeply hidden costs that accompany its advantages, such as, say, quality olive oil. While specialization permits great improvements, the costs can be hard to measure.
But from the other side, I feel that trade is an important part of the process of keeping peace between nations. It’s harder to kill people outside your tribe when those people happen to be supplying something you have learned to want and even need. Of course, you may think you can invade and take it (for example, Germany invading Russia to secure fuel supplies in World War II), but often the product requires specialized knowledge not in your possession, or labor you’d prefer not to indulge in; sometimes constriction of trade can even lead to war (another World War II example would be the banning of shipping scrap metal to Japan, leaving them without a source of metal to build industry).
The challenge will be in finding ways to continue to co-exist without inadvertently wrecking our trading partners’ eco-systems.
1 World Bank. 2016. “High and Dry: Climate Change, Water, and the Economy.” World Bank, Washington, DC. License: Creative Commons Attribution CC BY 3.0 IGO
